US Beige Book reveals weakness, but home loan activity rises; Canada's economy shrinks; China's debt bubble causing concerns; Apple wins huge tax case; AU consumer sentiment falls; UST 10yr yield at 0.63%; oil and gold firm; NZ$1 = 65.7 USc; TWI-5 = 70.1

US Beige Book reveals weakness, but home loan activity rises; Canada's economy shrinks; China's debt bubble causing concerns; Apple wins huge tax case; AU consumer sentiment falls; UST 10yr yield at 0.63%; oil and gold firm; NZ$1 = 65.7 USc; TWI-5 = 70.1

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China is worried about economic bubbles while the rest of the world struggles with declines.

The latest US Fed Beige Book summary of individual Fed district surveys reports that American economic activity increased in June and early July in almost all Districts, but remained well below where it was prior to the onset of the pandemic. Consumer spending picked up as many nonessential businesses were allowed to reopen. Retail sales rose in all Districts, led by a rebound in vehicle sales and a rebound in the food, hospitality and home improvement sectors but they were far below year-ago levels. Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity moved up, but from a very low level. Overall, they are reporting a lame rebound, now compromised by reintroduced lockdown in many large states.

And the Fed's industrial production report for June makes grim reading with activity down more than -10% year-on-year although most of that happened in April.

Perking up were last week's American mortgage applications, up more than +5% in the period. And mortgage interest rates fell to record lows again in the benchmark survey.

But despite that spark, most estimates for American GDP levels are for a huge -35% fall quarter-on-quarter in the Q2 of 2020.

North of the border, the Bank of Canada sees a -13% fall in Q2 compared to Q1-2020 and slightly more on a year-on-year basis (p13).

In China, their banks extended a record US$1.73 tln of new loans in the first half of 2020, up +25% from the same period in 2019. But now it seems that some of this leaked illegally into high-risk housing and commercial property, raising the stakes of an unstable bubble in that sector. We will get Chinese house price growth data later today, but recall in May it rose +4.9% year-on-year. One major city has re-instituted home-buying restrictions to deal with the problem.

And China has moved to impose their income tax system in Hong Kong, taking the top rate in the City suddenly from 15% to 45%, a move neither the international community - nor anyone - saw coming. That will hasten their exit from Hong Kong.

In Europe, an EU court has overturned the tax ruling in the Irish/Apple case delivering a huge €14 bln win for Apple. They ruled that the 0.3% tax rate the Irish Government had agreed with Apple was lawful under EU rules. The judgment hinged on the fact that the Irish Government gave the same breaks to other tech giants, not just Apple. Google and Amazon have separate appeals running over similar tax issues.

Australian consumer sentiment has dived in July, especially in Victoria, in the latest Westpac-MI survey. There were also declines in the rest of Australia, but they were 'milder'. In the absence of the pandemic shock, those wider declines would likely have attracted a stronger description.

Wall Street is currently up +0.9% in early afternoon trade. Yesterday Shanghai fell (-1.6%), Hong Kong was flat (+0.1%) and Tokyo rose (+1.6%). Overnight European markets were all higher by almost +2%. And yesterday the ASX200 ended up +1.9%%. The NZX50 ended up +1.0%.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 13,397,200 and that is up +232,000 since this time yesterday. Global deaths reported now exceed 580,000 (+5,000, or more than 3 every minute).

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +71,800 overnight to 3,579,400. US deaths now exceed 140,000. The number of active infections in the US is now up +23,000 in a day to 1,826,700.

In Australia, there have now been 10,495 cases reported, another +244 since this time yesterday, and still concentrated in Victoria and NSW. Their death count is up to 111 (+3) and 28 people are now in ICU (+1). Their recovery rate has slipped back further to under 76%. There are now 2456 active cases in Australia (up +148 in a day).

The UST 10yr yield is +2 bps firmer at 0.63%. Their 2-10 curve is flatter at +45 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also flatter at +12 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve down to +49 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -1 bp to 0.89%. The China Govt 10yr is softer again, down -6 bps at 3.07%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is unchanged at 0.95%.

The gold price is just a little higher today, up by +US$3 to US$1,812/oz.

Oil prices are holding if marginally higher. They are now just over US$41/bbl in the US and the international price is just over US$43.50/bbl.

And the Kiwi dollar is firmer at just on 65.7 USc. We are also firmer at 93.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up to 57.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has risen marginally back to 70.1.

The bitcoin price is softer at US$9,214, but it only a marginal dip. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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144 Comments

That will hasten their exit from Hong Kong.

It's not quite clear who "their" are. Rich people?

If China uses the tax to help the young people of Hong Kong to buy homes they could become more popular.

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What do you think the odds are of that happening Zac?

Personally I think this is just about power and control. And i think the CCP, ironically, is not considering the longer term future, and probably has too much confidence in its ability to contain and control it's own population. Those people gapping it to places like London won't just go away, and they will persist in being a thorn in their side. Worse, they will find a way to ensure information gets past the CCPs controls to the people of China. This could easily blow up in their faces.

It's what I would advise them to do. Give the young people a future. Probably not much chance of it happening as people love money more than anything. And for good reason as it does buy you personal independence. As a be all and end all of a nation though it is ultimately self defeating.

It's what I would advise them to do. Give the young people a future.

That advice is needed more widely at present.

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"It's not quite clear who "their" are. Rich people?"

Well, my in-laws fled the CCP many many years ago to the UK. I'd describe them as normal people, not wanting their lives throttled by China.

It's incredibly sad what's happened to Hong Kong. It was a marvellous place.

"If China uses the tax to help the young people of Hong Kong to buy homes they could become more popular." Zachary, I don't think you quite understand what life if like in Hong Kong. At most they could look forward to is a state funded subdivided housing unit often referred to as coffin homes. And remember this was at a time when HK was prosperous. Article from The Atlantic: The 'Coffin Homes' of Hong Kong. https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/05/the-coffin-homes-of-hong-kong/...

Hong Kong is one of the wealthiest cities on the planet though...
I would have thought my comment implied that I did understand that the prospect of coffin like homes was a problem. The CCP could change it all with the stroke of a pen.

I know Hong Kong reasonably well, having lived there for a while and have friends who lived there and worked in the press.

Biggest problem with Hong Kong was it is/was basically a plutocaracy, run by rich families who are involved in both criminal enterprises and government. They control land development with an iron fist and have stopped any sort of sensible development practices. You only have to look at a map and/or visit to see the issues, there is heaps of free space in HK, without much development on it. This pumped up existing land prices way over the top, hence living areas are smaller and smaller for higher and higher costs.

Once China wrests control, Zachary's guess might not be far off. They may just decide to develop all of Lantau, for instance, which would likely double living space in the territory. Everyone thinks Hong Kong will be destroyed with Chinese rule. Well, I have lived in China and it's actually pretty good. Nobody seems to consider that with China in charge, it will mean the destruction of the plutocrat power in HK, which is arguably much more damaging to most HKers. Don't confuse political freedom of expression with ease of day to day life...

How will it hasten their exit ?

The article here is very misleading. By my reading China is starting to tax global income of its citizens, as US does.

So the jump from 15 to 45% only affects mainlanders, and exiting HK won't avoid that 45% rate that china charges.

"China Starts Taxing Its Citizens for Global Income"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/china-starts-taxing-i...

Ha Ha. Good one. China will bring in their zombie crooked banks with their home price bubble lending techniques. Then watch HK home prices go. Remember, with CCP total control of news, HK is still a very popular place to own property and live.

Nikki Kaye continues the clean-out and Brownlee must be just going through the motions.

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And Amy Adams gone now, absolute shambles of a party, they are toast.

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The more important point, is that they've turned their back on the future.

They have chosen the past.

And are therefore obsolete. This will be obvious except to a few schills hereabouts; wait for the instructed outpourings.

Socialism is the past, and there's no greater shill than you PDK. Instructed? I think not, just a mindless zealot.

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Chuckle - I rest my case.

Some reading for you, RO (what was the other half of that ferry-description, again?):
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-07-15/green-economic-growth-is-a...

Read it all, carefully, sans your obvious accumulated bias. Then bother to read the links.

Go well

When I lived in Germany there was an old man who would ride around my neighbourhood with placards strapped to his front and back, and a megaphone attached to his lips. He would screech "Das Ende naht" - the end nears - making sure we were all well aware of our impending doom.

You remind me of him, except I think we can safely swap the bicycle for a warm, upper middle class house and some organic coffee.

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You realise there is only one planet don't you RO?

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Do you honestly think National can win this by moving further right? What votes do they pick up by doing that? Maybe they can take some off Act, not sure that helps them.
They are starting to look quite irrelevant; a bunch of old has been moaners trying to appeal to the talkback Hosking crowd. I guess that is a growing demographic and its worked well before; although a bit different now that Labour just saved most of their lives...

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Yep stale and irrelevant, but still hold some appeal to the ZB rednecks.

'Labour just saved most of their lives..'
Come on man, that is some serious rewriting of history. It was the doctors that strongly advised Labour to LD while Jacinda said she had it all under control and continued to hugged people. The same would have happened if National was in.
Yes National has a chance, not much, a bit less than Labour had in the last election. If we had strong rain across the country on the final weekend of polling the whole game would change very fast.

You honestly think National would have shut down the tourism sector, a big contributor to our economy, because Ashley told them to? Seems unlikely to me. Of course they wouldn't be stupid enough to say otherwise.
At best National would have done something similar to Aus.

Labour had to go into LD. They had stated that they were prepared and that was not correct. That was pointed out for all to see. It is an election year and they were in very real danger of being a onne term wonder if they did not act once it was pointed out.
National would have been on it's 4th term and if they wanted to do a 5th they would have also been forced to act.
Your answer is. Yes National would have acted and gone to LD. Can you not remember the talk at the time, Jacinda can't call a LD she is not a leader that could implement anything let alone something as big as a LD. That is exactally what happened but somehow you turn a blind eye to that and rewrite history.
Seriously can't you remember Jacinda saying, we just got another 15 million face masks... great Jacinda enough for one day @ 3 a day each.

They can win my vote by moving further right. You seem to think all NZ are lefties?

Who would you vote for if they don't move further right? Labour or Greens?
They can't win your vote if they already have it, and winning it off Act doesn't really help them.

The more bleating about lefty poor me the more I am inclided to vote right.
The problem with left is that there will always be an elimentvthat can not be saved but they will continue to try help them but making them more reliant at the same time.

Centre, left of centre and right of centre decide elections not leftists or rightists.

But it's not like they are looking to reduce socialism. They merely target their wealth transfer to older generations. They even campaigned last time around on increasing the Landlord Supplement and WFF, and their default economic approach was to sell off NZ.

So...where will the conservatism come from? Actual conservatism, not wealth transfer for mates.

Potentially only ACT has anything of worth to say in that regard, and even they're not addressing redistribution particularly.

Well... if your ability to look past 9 years of selling our sovereignty and land, under-investing in health, education and the future of less affluent NZ'ers is anything to go by, I'd say it's pot callin' kettle black' when it comes to mindlessness!

RollingOn,

Spot on-you are indeed a mindless zealot. Your ignorance of what Socialism actually means is profound.

PDK Exactly. They've been focused on personality politics all along which is fine when you're selecting a party leader. Thereafter it's the country's needs that matter, wasnt that the reason they got interested in politics. Democracy rules.

Ha Ha. Good one. China will bring in their zombie crooked banks with their home price bubble lending techniques. Then watch HK home prices go. Remember, with CCP total control of news, HK is still a very popular place to own property and live

Be good for the NZ media to approach Chris Tremain and get him to explain how the Chinese banking system all works and what the end goal is. He should know about all this, right? Would be fascinating to see him respond to some of the points you raise.

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I saw on the sub-Reddit "Wall Street Bets" this morning, a young chap saying he'll invest $100,000 in the stock picked from the replied comments (which ever gets the most upvotes).

That's where we're at with the stock markets these days.

I saw on the sub-Reddit "Wall Street Bets" this morning, a young chap saying he'll invest $100,000 in the stock picked from the replied comments (which ever gets the most upvotes).

Yes. Sentiment analysis. It can be quite sophisticated. To be honest, it's great to see young people disrupt markets to their own advantage and see the Vampire Squid, JPM, etc all squirm.

"It can be quite sophisticated" - You might not be aware, but wallstreetbets is not a serious investing forum. It's pretty much a joke site, where people intentionally do (seemingly) idiotic trades for the laughs. Giant losses are praised just as much as giant wins. It's literally just for show, although some lucky idiots actually make millions with some extreme trades.

It may be a joke site but I'm convinced those guys are smarter than they let on.

It may be a joke site but I'm convinced those guys are smarter than they let on.

Correct. The real insider info about how this is all working is the data from tools like Robinhood and Sharesies.

Well, I guess for some it's a bit like the late TV show 'Jackass'. You're watching it thinking how f*** stupid these people are, but they actually make millions.
I'm pretty sure the wallstreetbets audience has its own silent majority who lose money hand over fist, just don't go bragging about it.

Hold on Toto. It's easy to ridicule what's going on with Robinhood, etc but does that make these people any less savvy than those who've been taken to the cleaners by the financial system that reveres Goldman Sachs, JPM, the ETF cult, Mary Holm, etc?

I don't know. When the stocks plummeted at the start of Covid, the sub-Reddit was full of people threatening to commit suicide. A few months later and that's all been forgotten.

A sideshow. Pay no attention to attention grabbers

Wasn't there a person who got out a day or two before the 1929 crash when he heard the shoe shine boy touting stocks.

Yes, exactally what we have now.

Wasn't there a person who got out a day or two before the 1929 crash when he heard the shoe shine boy touting stocks

QE and money printing didn't exist in 1929. The ruling elite doesn't mind speculation on assets, as long as it's done through their channels.

JC,

"money printing didn't exist in 1929". Really, what about Germany then? They were printing money by the barrow load-literally.

OK. Point taken. In the Anglosphere, the money supply actually shrank.

Coronavirus - SARS2. Why is the PM preparing NZ for soon coming community transmission?
Is the Govt unable to secure the borders? And the Govt unable to manage the isolation facilities?
Perhaps extend the isolation time to 21 days? And restrict returnees ( so-called) to citizens only, or restrict to citizens and permanent residents only. Time to prevent all limited term resident visa holders eg 1 year, 2 year, etc resident visas - they can wait until the next layer.

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I think Cindy just wanted to ruin Crusher’s announcements. If there is community transmission then clearly the COL will have failed to protect us at the Border. A neighbour flies overseas with Air NZ on a crazy schedule. At least they had the decency to tell us, but I think it’s just a matter of time. I hope if it does happen, it’s before the election so NZ can vote accordingly. Without Covid-19 they would be toast.

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Your bias doesn't show at all. Just sayin'.

One way and another, it was exponential growth that was our downfall. Both ways. Ironic, really.

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Give it a rest with the "Cindy" nonsense. It's juvenile dreck. If you have better ideas you don't need to resort to name calling.

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Agreed, It's patronising and chauvinistic. I think he's just and old stale, male.

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It will be spin-instructed. The usual is an ear-worm two-worder; Nanny State being the one that comes to mind, dropped immediately after that particular election (by Key, at any rate, some of the bleaters carried on for a while). They tried Taxinda but that didn't get traction, so maybe that why this.

Funny - and a little sad - to watch, given the order-of-magnitude change overtaking society.

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TBH I don't care for the pale stale male thing either. Play the ball, not the player.

M8. No one has mentioned that Crusher was used.
Acceptable to use Crusher but not Cindy. Could it be more pro left than chauvinistic?

If crusher is pejorative, then by all means that one too. That's not my understanding of it, but admit I could be wrong.

This is not a partisan issue for me. I've voted national more times than labour, historically, and I'm sad to see Kaye go. This is about having a mature discussion, which is when this site is at its best, rather than a partisan name calling mess (its worst).

Kezza, right from the first time I saw Ex Expat use the term "Cindy" it rankled. On some of the comments he was criticising policies, on others it seemed he was just attempting a put down. "Cindy" as far as I can see does not refer to any policy positions, but does seem to be pejorative, chauvinistic, and patronising, possibly even misogynistic to me. Language is powerful, and I think EE is likely expressing his own political ideology rather than looking past the messenger to the policy.

"Crusher" on the other hand to me has no gender intimation in it rather than being a direct reference to a policy position that JC has held (crushing boy racer cars). Indeed it may even be a handle that she may be proud of, irrespective of what others think of the policy. It certainly implies she can take a firm line on policies if she needs to (as JA has done on occasion), and it is likely she and/or the media is using it in an attempt to intimidate the current Government.

I enjoy honest critical analysis, and many contributors here have taught me something I did not know, including EE in the past. But I really dislike it when people use gender or race as the basis of criticism. It shows a severe lack of ability in critical thought, and an attempt to preserve or return to a state of power or privilege when the world needs a change to a fairer society.

Yes , have the common decency to use her full name of Taxinderella.

You proved the point that you have nothing of substance to say

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I do not recall you calling out those twisting John Key's and Simon Bridges names on this site - just a tad hypocritical I think.

I don't like any of it, either way; see above.

You might not like it either way ( I am with you on that ..) - but you ( and others here ) only call it out when it goes one way - which is my point.

Yes, her correct title is Saint Jacinda, repent for you have blasphemed.

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It's really interesting to me how sure certain members are, that Labour are perceived to be so bad by the general population. I am a centrist but regardless of Covid 19 I would probably still vote Labour this time. There isn't really a better option but unlike many older males on here, I don't find anything remotely offensive or patronising about JA's persona. She is also wildly popular on the world stage, which is very helpful for NZ (JC could never achieve this). National look like an absolute chaotic mess, JC is corrupt and unappealing. I am disappointed that Labour haven't delivered on a few key policies but neither did National last time, so I don't see that as a persuasive reason to support National. I don't think Labour are incompetent. They certainly haven't been perfect or impressive but they don't fill me with the fear and horror that some on here describe. I sometimes feel the rhetoric is a bit dramatic tbh.

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Yep. I wouldn’t describe myself as an Ardern fan, but the patronising attitude is irritating. She’s really very middle-of-the-road and obviously a competent leader - and I say that as someone who didn’t vote Labour and is disappointed at their many failures in delivery. It reminds me a bit of the Helen Clark years - seeing some of the absurd, OTT abuse she got as a moderate and competent leader was what persuaded me that misogyny is a real issue in NZ politics.

Sad but true

The same as John Key turned into.
I know what is best for you, go and sit in the courner.

Not that long ago Labour had Jacinda and Robertson and almost no one else. But now National have - well no one really. Labour are starting to look like the better party even excluding Jacinda.
Is it too late to start another party? Adams, Muller and Kaye would pick up a lot of centre votes. Depending on their policies I may even vote for them. They would make better kingmakers than NZ first. Maybe its been the plan all along; National have always had an issue with having no mates!

Well put. Mostly agree, although I think they are less competent than you are suggesting. Although, to be fair, it's been one hopelessly incompetent minister who has largely been to blame.
NZ First have also been a handbrake.

Agee. There is a spectrum between incompetent and competent. Labour have been competent on some issues and lacking competence in others but not disastrously so.
Jacinda seems a competent leader but could do with stronger wing men/women imo

National have just alienated my vote.

Agree and it would have been to Labour's benefit to ease him out this election or push him noticeably down the list to show the GP that they can deal with incompetence. A few more agriculture and business ring-ins on the list would also help to bolster their rep with those of us in the middle. Under the Labour selection process though, this is a bit harder to pull off?

I find it funny Ex Expat, all the people jumping on you saying Cindy and say nothing about Crusher.
Very left on here now days.

Society has shifted to the left Kezza in my view, not just here. Look at the polls. So you can expect more left based narrative everywhere you go for the next while - this site won't be an exception by the look of it.

There's an important difference.
'Cindy' could easily be considered sexist / derogatory, 'Crusher' doesn't have those connotations- in fact some, who like her 'tough' attitude, would use 'Crusher' in an endearing manner.
I suggest that you get with the 21st century.

"Coronavirus - SARS2. Why is the PM preparing NZ for soon coming community transmission?
Is the Govt unable to secure the borders? And the Govt unable to manage the isolation facilities?"

Because they realise that there are dickheads in the community who believe their personal freedoms are more important than others rights to not get infected. They also understand that some of those dickheads are going to be on planes bringing Kiwis back home, and that under NZ law we cannot put them in a truly secure facility like a jail, until they actually break a law. And some people really do believe Trumps perspective, that if they aren't tested, and therefore not told they are positive, then they can't be positive - right? (Clearly they ignore that Trump has been identified as being tested very often) Yes there is politics in this, but by this stage with some experience under their belt, i would expect the Government to be getting some early plans out about what it is going to look like down the road. Hope for the best - plan for the worst.

Yeah. And why don't we just plan for earthquakes after they've happened? /s

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It’s always interesting to log into the herald in the morning and find out which national mp has quit today.

It's a special day today - two are expected to quit.

Collins is likely to stand up at the next caucus meeting and commence with "I called for an 8 am start. Where is everybody?"

That is a whole lot better than "the reason I joined the labour party..."

JC started in the labour party she used to work for david lange, so like a few people she jumped the fence to the other side when she saw the inside workings

She made the 'right' choice. My own daughter was in the labour party youth wing in 2016/2017 and helped promote the party, she met many of the current ministers and had photos taken with them when they were in opposition. She has also made the right choice after finding out the truth and getting insight to what goes on.

All happy la la untill you get older and the age transition takes place. Green, Labour, National.
Evolution.

Stereotype.
I have gone back towards the left.

dp

The "strong team" for National is only fit for seven-a side now.

A very good chance that National will win then. 7 against 1 is very good odds.

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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=123...

This is great. Max - who walks around with a silver spoon still wedged firmly in his mouth, buys overpriced property with financial backing of his father who helped facilitate the mess.

This is gold for Granny Herald. If only they could have had this say 12 months ago not when there is some uneasy 'feeling' the whole housing-banking complex is going to collapse in on itself.

Key hasn't been an MP for the last god knows how long and he was loaded before he got into politics. 'Man helps son buy home' doesn't quite rankle the same way, I know, but I'm sure there's something more current and relevant you could get your undies in a knot over. Perhaps a stuff-up from the current administration instead?

What many mums and dads do in Aotearoa. So, what is new ? Get with the story.

"Rich man helps buy son a house after ensuring house prices were unaffordable for other people that age and saying it was a good thing"?

I think John and Brona (Sorry for the spelling) wanted him out of the house...so a nice little $1.4 mill do up. Just shows you that to get into the market you still need mum/dad...

Sickening pandering parenting by the sounds. Would love to see the numbers for who contributed how much. I would call it a development site rather than a do up, there has been a lot of intensification around that spot with homes removed and replaced with Terrace t/h

Its not even news; rich dad helps to buy son a fairly average house. Surely one of the reasons people want money is so they can help their kids out.
I'm no JK fan by any means but its starting to get ridiculous now...
(edit: I think I missed an important connection here: JK loved the fact house prices were so high, I guess it doesn't matter when your kids will be fine)

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Would be interesting to see how many boomers (on this site) were helped by their parents for the first house purchase? I am guessing nearly zero.

He was happy to see house prices explode to drive the dribble of a rockstar economy. But in order for his son to get on the property ladder with an average house (worth a way overpriced 1.4m) he's got to help foot the bill. He knew that would have been the case when PM but obviously had no regard for other young Kiwis who don't have the same privilege.

I'm not mad in the slightest I just find the whole thing comical.

Amy Adams re-resigning and Nikki Kaye resigning.

Government in waiting?

If it was a male running the ship and pushed them out, the headlines would be very different.
NATIONAL PARTY SEXIST !

you have 4 female MPs leaving national this election, does not leave many in the national party, its turning into a bit of a white male sausage feast, i guess that is balanced by the greens that have turned into a knitting circle with a token male to bring in the tea and biscuits.
so much for MMP spreading diversity

Just pointing out the double standards of a male giving them the chop 'V' a female.

Maybe we could do something amazing. Pick the PERSON for the job. Enough of the sexiest BS, if you want to be in bloody deliver. Not she was the beat female for the job. Double standards! The sooner that everyone gets over trying to right the wrongs of the past, the sooner we can all move on. I often hear females makeing derogatory comments about males, then jump on slightly sexist comments from males.
As I see it and I live in a very male dominated world, males have brought into equality but if females dont move on, there is very real danger of the blokes just going the other way.
If anyone said 'happy husband, happy life' they would be screamed at! but it is perfectly acceptable to hear 'happy wife, happy life' even on TV.

Like they used to say about Indira Gandhi, isn't Judith the only man in National leadership ?
Just for fun, don't get offended please.

I'm not sure they've been pushed. I'd rather suggest as a couple of others here have hinted, is that they see the current leadership as a lurch back to the old National Party and it's politics of the past. So further right, more deeply embedded in old economic models with little to no innovative or imaginative thinking. While initially the standards and transparency message is right on, give it a year of so and with the leadership having put their leash on the rank and file, watch the dirty politics begin again. I think they will lose this election, but they'll go hard for the next.

Nikki Kaye is gone! The National Party is actually starting to clear out the deadwood, goodness me what a pleasant surprise.

I wonder what Collins had in store for her, someone very close to that toad Boag must have had some dirt on their hands.

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"Deadwood"? You mean "The last remaining liberals"? A boring 2005-era election looms with a 2002-type result.

Frankly if Bennett, Adams and Kaye started their own party, I'd vote for it in a heartbeat over the current mob of authoritarians and religious conservative nutjobs.

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Kaye was deadwood?

Or she just didn't want to work under a(nother) sociopathic leader after multiple years under Sir John?

Kaye was awesome! Sad to see her go.

Back to the past for National, Liberals deserting, now their new health minister wanting to open up to overseas students and very keen for us to open up our borders especially to China
They need some young blood with fresh ideas

Just thinking about your comment a little more RO, I'd argue rather than the deadwood going it's the ones with some actual morals that are going...

Yup agree with you on that Muzled. Brownlee as deputy says it all..

I've lived in a few flats in NZ / London etc. The ones that were the worst were the ones with an equal or greater amount of female to male ratio. Every week there was another issue, one female stabbing another in the back and all picking sides and trying to influence the guys. The best flats were the ones with only one female. The ones with no females were a lot of fun but messy in a few different ways.... a hell of a lot of fun though...

And this relates to the national party how? Or are you a little bit bored today..should be on that building site Kezza!

A honest observation. Not hard to understand how it relates to the National Party.

Maybe let's not base political decisions on the gender group dynamics of our 20s flatting eh? Even better, maybe not base massive gender assumptions on it either.

Oh so relevant today that it is not funny, point in case that the the current TV 'reality' shows are so popular. It's not the average bloke sitting there lappiing up the BS drama.
If a guy mentions it, OMG that's so sexist... somehow if you are male you need to turn a blind eye to human nature but if you are female you are quite on your rights to point out what happens if a given population is male.
South Africa didnt move on from apartheid by trying to right the wrongs of the past and womans rights will it move on until females realise that. I seldom hear men these days making 'jokes' about females but often hear them from females. Equality is just that, treating both sexes the same, NOT favouring one above the other.

"Equality is just that, treating both sexes the same, NOT favouring one above the other" - do you think we live in that world Kezza?

Cynical Amy Adams re-resigns....but Amy you told us you came out of retirement because you and National were the only ones to save us during this pandemic; nothing to do at all with your collusion with Todd to roll Simon.... how stupid does she think the voting public are?

Well I think it is obvious there are two factions in the National party; the conservative anti progress lot, and the more liberal lot. It looks like the liberals are getting a bit over it.

Nikki and Amy quit. Are they all gonna get together and start a new Neo National Party, with Sir John as Sponsor ? That would be interesting, right ?

When political parties start looking at failure, they make tough decisions, let the dogs out

https://youtu.be/dbNnl1PO4xE

Last night an insane woman I know stopped but for the night, 2nd time in a couple of weeks. When I say insane, probably schizophrenic although I don't know for sure. The one thing about this girl is she is a chef and does hold down jobs. Jobs plural, she is very transient due to the illness. I’d say relationships with employers and workmates plays a part.

One time she came to me in a real crisis as she couldn’t get access to mental health services. She needed them, and that ten days was exhausting for me.

Her type of work has dried up as a result of lockdown.

So my challenge to those of you who are all in favour of this lockdown is that there are lots of people like this in the community (I’ve got several others I watch out for) and you need to consider your responsibility is to host these types as their work opportunities diminish. Not full time, but a few days here and there and then move them on to the next one. Part of our future is that the low burden types start to become high burden. You all have to carry the load.

Most of the data suggests that the pandemic without lockdown would have caused a deeper and more protracted recession so I don't fully understand why you are citing the lockdown down as the cause of job insecurity. I strongly suspect a more serious recession and employment issues are coming for countries who have longer periods of uncontrolled virus.

I think a decade of neglecting and underfunding mental health services in NZ has contributed to your friends plight and it makes me think of all the other sufferers who don't have a friend to take them in. This is exactly why humane societies create a safety net because some people require help. Do they not have a social worker or community mental health team to support them through this?

"Most of the Data". I'll call BS on that, most of the Data I'm getting suggest quite the opposite.

However given the lack of trust in any of the data, the best principle to go by is to do nothing. It is evident though that most are willing to throw principles out the door when inconvenient.

Hey Scarfie her name isn't Toni is it ? I went out with a Chef and she was a bit of a nutter or maybe they are all the same ?

Half a million Aussies have withdrawn ALL their Super since the early access scheme began in April. The pace of withdrawals has accelerated recently to $1B a day. $29B has already been withdrawn from the $2.7T Superannuation pool.

Holy smokes. And what happens once that runs out???

They roll the money choppers out.
Money is not an issue anymore, just roll the printers.
The problem could arise (and must arise eventually) that the poor get aggravated that the rich get the bulk of that money.

Holy smokes. And what happens once that runs out???

Could this be the best play ever by National? Split the party in two with one party appealing to the centre right and another party to the centre. The centre party could also get a lot of sympathy votes. National have a lot of baggage; by offering their voters another option with very little baggage (Kaye / Adams / Muller) they may get some of those votes back. It could be brilliance!

Stick Twyford in there too and call it 'United Future'?

Been Dunne already

"And China has moved to impose their income tax system in Hong Kong, taking the top rate in the City suddenly from 15% to 45%, a move neither the international community - nor anyone - saw coming. That will hasten their exit from Hong Kong."

This is as big for HK economically as the security law. Since 1997 there has been a daily quota of new arrivals from China. This now totals millions of people and every single one of them will be affected by the collection of global tax.

Disposable income in HK just took a gigantic hit.

Cash on the sidelines and zero prospective returns

As I observed early in the global financial crisis, you’re going to see a lot of chatter about “cash on the sidelines” in the months and years ahead. That’s because the Federal Reserve is creating a mountain of the stuff. The moment the Federal Reserve creates base money (currency and bank reserves) to purchase some asset, the base money it creates must be held by someone in the economy, at every moment in time, until it’s retired. A dollar of base money is just another type of “security.” A given holder of cash can try to get rid of it by buying other pieces of paper like stock shares or bond certificates, but the seller of the stocks or bonds immediately becomes the new holder of the cash.

So “cash on the sidelines” can certainly change ownership, but it can’t go “into” the stock market, or the bond market, or anywhere else, without coming right back out in someone else’s hands. Once a security is issued, that security has to be held by someone, at every moment in time, exactly in the form it was issued in, until that security is retired. That holds for base money as well.

Also remember that the moment the government runs a deficit, somebody has to run a “surplus” of income over and above consumption and net investment. That “surplus,” in equilibrium, is held in the form of whatever liabilities the government issued to do the spending. If the government finances the deficit by issuing Treasury bonds, someone is going end up holding more Treasury bonds. If the Fed buys the Treasury bonds and replaces them with base money, someone is going to end up holding more base money.

If investors are inclined to speculate, the pile of zero-interest hot potatoes created by the Fed can certainly encourage them to chase other assets, which is how the Fed has created an “everything bubble” in recent years. The problem is that as valuations rise, future return prospects fall, and we’ve now got the worst investment menu for passive investors in the history of the U.S. financial markets. Everything is priced for near-zero returns. Link

Another great read. Thanks.

"Perhaps it’s needless to observe that current valuations on all of these measures match those of 1929 and 2000. I’ll observe it anyway.
Current valuations are essentially triple those that would be consistent with historically run-of-the-mill stock market returns ... the outcome will be catastrophic for investors over the completion of this cycle, because it implies a nearly two-thirds loss in the S&P 500 simply to reach pedestrian historical norms."

If investors are inclined to speculate, the pile of zero-interest hot potatoes created by the Fed can certainly encourage them to chase other assets, which is how the Fed has created an “everything bubble” in recent years.

Great explanation. I've been wondering how this mechanism worked.

Nice idea But.

https://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-press/20200716/281668257279394

To replace its coal boilers with a biomass boiler UC will put up $9.36m of it money on top of the $6.34m of government funding.

However, cost is seen as a barrier for organizations to move towards biomass burners, which are more expensive to run

- biomass boilers run on pellets made from "waste" wood.

Shaw said, .... it was a hugely important part of the Government's work to tackle the climate crisis....

For Shaw & Co:
Plant of the Humans
https://youtu.be/Zk11vI-7czE

Foolish comment.

It's not whether anything costs more, it's whether our children and theirs, will thank us for our actions.

In that light, Shaw is closer to the right track that your kind, but still falls short. Real sustainability doesn't have growth, not even if it is called green

You can do better than that.
Using the end of the world argument in order to justify expensive policies now.....

Ipcc modelling shows incomes rising 2.56 times from now in 50 years. If no action is taken, it would rise 2.53 times from now.

The UN last year said that in the past 15 years, all the billions spent, they can't tell if any change has been made.

In answer to the grand kids,
A. They will never know (2% less of an increase than otherwise).
B. Your no growth, they will never be born.

The new years prediction stands.

Silly again.

But you might find an economics professor or two (and a comet-trail of those taught by them :) to support that nonsense IPCC statement. (Or were you slyly trying to point out they can be wrong?).

The simple cact is that without energy there is no work. Without work (and I mean real work, not the virtual stuff most of us do to gain access to processed resources in pre-argued proportion) nothing happens. So no debt repaid. If the supply of energy is curtailed (and it will be, either argument) then so is the work do-able, so forget incomes rising 2.56 times. Numerically maybe, buying power? Impossible. They made the usual academic mistake of believing another discipline.

Silly again.

But you might find an economics professor or two (and a comet-trail of those taught by them :) to support that nonsense IPCC statement. (Or were you slyly trying to point out they can be wrong?).

The simple fact is that without energy there is no work. Without work (and I mean real work, not the virtual stuff most of us do to gain access to processed resources in pre-argued proportion) nothing happens. So no debt repaid. If the supply of energy is curtailed (and it will be, either argument) then so is the work do-able, so forget incomes rising 2.56 times. Numerically maybe, buying power? Impossible. They made the usual academic mistake of believing another discipline.

Australia is having to think this through...

The risk elimination creates is a false sense of security that may diminish the community engagement with widespread testing and lead to a downsizing of the enhanced public health response, based on an assumption "we have got rid of the virus once and for all in our part of the world".

https://www.smh.com.au/national/eliminating-covid-is-a-false-hope-but-ag...

And the good Dr Campbell is suggesting the Melbourne community transmission in the tower blocks has its source in the BLM protests a couple of weeks ago

https://youtu.be/zATAO1pLXs0
Note - the news from SA is distressing

The discussion around bank bail-ins has gone mainstream (Australia's ABC). This is quite comprehesive for mainstream media but also disturbing that it needs to be discussed at all. Important to point out that bank deposits are NOT guaranteed in Australia, contrary to what people think.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/coronavirus-crisis-heightens-fear...

The reality is clear.
According to the Reserve Bank, the new capital requirements mean banks will need to contribute $12 of their shareholders' money for every $100 of lending up from $8 now, with depositors and creditors providing the rest.

Banks are thinly capitalised by their shareholders on purpose and the depositors let them get away with it, as do regulators.

The new tax only applies to mainland Chinese working in Hong Kong

Faced with a tax rate as high as 45% -- up from about 15% previously -- Chinese professionals across Hong Kong are considering moving back home to avoid getting squeezed by both the new levy and sky-high living costs in the former British colony, according to interviews with workers and recruiters.

The prospect of an exodus has upended expectations that mainland talent would help offset any outflow of locals and foreign expatriates from Hong Kong, many of whom are looking to escape the city’s controversial new national security legislation.

While questions remain about how broadly Chinese authorities will apply the new tax rules in Hong Kong, professionals of all stripes now have reasons to leave a city that not long ago was viewed as one of the world’s most attractive places to build a career. That risks weighing on Hong Kong’s battered economy and further undermining its status as a premier financial center.

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