Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the world has ended the week with lackluster economic data but facing resurgent pandemic threats.
First, in the US, building permit levels in June, and new housing start data for the same month both came in pretty much as expected, up from the May levels but below the levels of the same month a year ago..
But consumer confidence is starting to waver and fall again, after a longer-than-expected positive run in June as pandemic lockdowns eased. But the new gravity of the situation is starting to dawn on increasing numbers of previous sceptics.
From July 24, the first of the pandemic support programs runs out in the US and then increasing numbers of these programs start to expire. The US Congress now has only six weeks to come up with extensions or new support, but given Republican Senate reticence to act, the risks are growing sharply all Federal support may vanish.
In China, tax revenue is rising again, up +3.2% in June from the same month a year ago and ending a five month streak of declines. In May, the same data fell -10% so this is a healthy revival.
And the Chinese central bank has let its balance sheet shrink, with far fewer claims on it for monetary support. It shrank by -NZ$150 bln at June compared to the level it was at in December 2019. That is a -2% fall after growth in 2019 of +3%.
Japan is making progress in getting some of its companies to shift manufacturing out of China based on rising strategic risks. 87 companies have qualified for Japanese support to make the move, and of course others are doing it on their own.
China is responding by sending 'survey ships' into Japanese waters and threatening to widen its nine-dash-line extra-territorial waters claim. This comes as the US makes a show of defending the rights of sea passage, but in fact is pulling back its support of traditional allies in the region.
Australia is struggling to figure out how to handle a resurgent pandemic. Decisions the are making there will impact New Zealand significantly and it seems likely they will decide they are just not up to achieving an 'elimination' strategy. If that is where they end up, the Trans Tasman bubble is toast. In fact, the risks of community transmission in New Zealand will rise.
And staying in Australia, the latest release of their Taxation Statistics shows that most landlords were running losing businesses with more expenses claimed than rents earned. "Negative gearing" is their tax rort game, much like tax-free capital gains are in New Zealand.
Wall Street is up +0.5% near its close for the week, cementing in a +1.5% weekly gain. That is notable because it means all the prior losses of 2020 have almost been recovered. At the end of June, the S&P500 had shed -US$1.8 tln in 2020. But now all that 'value' has been recovered. Overnight, European markets were mixed, straddling the no-change benchmark from Thursday. Yesterday Shanghai ended the day with only a marginal gain, and for the week it declined -5% after the prior week's +7.3% rise. For all of 2020, this market is up +4.2% so far. Hong Kong closed up +0.5% on the day, Tokyo closed down -0.3% on the same basis. The ASX200 ended the week up +0.4% on the day for a weekly rise of +1.9% and a full year-to-date loss of -10%. The NZX50 Capital Index rose +0.7% on Friday for a weekly rise of +1.7% and a full year-to-date decline of -1.2%.
The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 13,888,900 and that is up +251,000 since this time yesterday. Global deaths reported now exceed 592,000 (+6,000).
A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +80,000 from this time yesterday to 3,730,900. The infection is spreading so fast now that a +100,000 day is not far away. US deaths now exceed 141,600 and a death rate of 428/mln. The number of active infections in the US is now up +40,000 in a day to 1,894,100.
In Australia, there have now been 11,235 cases reported, another +425 since this time yesterday, and still concentrated in Victoria but growing in NSW in Sydney's suburbs. Their death count is up to 116 (+3) and 32 people are now in ICU (+2). Their recovery rate has slipped back further to 72%. There are now 3002 active cases in Australia (up +341 in a day). (More cases have now been reported in Australia than in 11 US states.)
The UST 10yr yield is +2 bps softer at 0.63% and about where it was a week ago. Their 2-10 curve is a little steeper at +47 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also a tad steeper at +13 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve at +50 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up +1 bp to 0.89%. The China Govt 10yr is firmer too, up +1 bp at 3.05%. But the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down another -3 bps at 0.90% which is a retreat of -8 bps in a week.
The gold price is +US$15 higher today at US$1,810/oz and a small net +US$12 gain in a week.
Oil prices are a little softer again today. They are now just under US$40.50/bbl in the US and the international price is just under US$43/bbl. Both levels are almost exactly where they were a week ago. The US rig count slipped only a small number this week, but it is still at an all-time modern low.
And the Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer from this time yesterday at just on 65.6 USc and little-changed in a week. We are also unchanged at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we stable at 57.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now at 69.9 and broadly the level for the past two weeks ago.
The bitcoin price is little-changed at US$9,164 but is almost a -1% dip for the week. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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148 Comments
Second wave reality checks? Covid 19 epidemic now over in the UK - fallen to half of the 0.2% threshold to qualify as an epidemic.
“At the end of April, the percentage of the population in England testing positive was 0.4% - now it's less than 0.1%, the ONS says.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53021671
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/50691000/gif/_50691302_f…
"If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought. "
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/05/04/qa-nobel-laureate-says-covid-1…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Perhaps read the article? Science is a making a prediction that is borne out by empirical results. He stated 5-6k for Sweden in early May and was correct. He also correctly called the China death rate. "Levitt gained notoriety for successfully predicting when the rate of increase in the number of deaths in China would slow down."
It seems T-cell immunity from related diseases may be more important than previously thought. Don't think anyone has checked to see if pet owners are more likely to get zero symptoms, but that would therefore be likely.
Scientists believe the "threshold" of herd immunity may have been lowered because many people may already be immune to the disease without ever having caught it.
According to a new model produced by an Oxford University team led by Professor Sunetra Gupta, as little as 20 per cent of the population may need to be resistant to the virus in order to prevent a new epidemic spreading.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/16/uk-may-already-have-enough-…
Interesting that the the debate is fiercest between the Oxford team (coronaviruses are common, so act but don't panic) and the Imperial team (PANIC, only a vaccine and lockdown can save us).
Maybe there is some truth in the conspiracy theory that Imperial are in the pockets of the vaccine manufacturers (Bill Gates has been mentioned). Conspiracy theories often have some truth in them, but only in the sense that something smells fishy, the chances of guessing what is actually going on are practically zero.
My son ~45 yrs old, who lives in London got a dose of the covids in March. Survived OK without hospitalisation. Know this from an antibody test. His wife had an antibody test, nothing. As far as I'm aware he didn't self isolate at home. He is working from home. I haven't asked when she had her antibody test. It appears there are some people who can brush off the covids without a problem and show no sign of antibodies. She certainly was asymptomatic.
Know of a very similar case among my friends in the US ( and they are a couple in their 70s ), he has a positive PCR test and a positive antibody test later ; both tests are negative for her. Both had symptoms ( not particularly severe ) and share a tiny apartment - go and figure.
So clearly some kind of immunity not showing in the antibody test does exist ( could be t-cells , could be some kind of genetic immunity ) . It does seem pretty rare though - so I do not think there are any major epidemiological implications from this.
Why would Gates be in any conspiracy? He gave up on the idea of having the most money a long time ago. If he wanted to be the richest man in the world all he had to do was hold on to his Microsoft shares and do nothing and wait for the capital gains.
I do think there are things we don’t know about COVID-19, but like finance, risk/uncertainty goes both ways.
LOL, LOL, LOL - it was only a few weeks ago that Profile was on here claiming that the US epidemic was 'burning itself out'. As in turning into a roaring conflagration. Cherry picking data (his usual modus operandi) doesn't really work where the virus is concerned........
The UK will follow the same pattern as the US - by September the virus will be off to the races again.
I find it astonishing that right wingers are so desperate to try and make the virus fit their narrative, their world view. I guess that's why the 3 nations with the highest aggregate death totals ( US, Brazil and India) are all run by right wing populists/nationalists..........
Total Deaths in USA Nov 6th will be tragic..guessing over 200k? Trump is more focused on Incandescent Light bulbs..
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-new…
"Key Updates for Week 28, ending July 11, 2020. Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) are low overall, but high for this time of year." "Low overall" is not really run for the hills stuff.
The death count chart speaks volumes. This baby peaked mid April.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.ht…
Here we go again. It's over nothing to worry about, BAU.
Meanwhile hospitals in the worst infected States are close to saturation point and daily infection rates jump up massively. As per Italy, the doctors will have to make a call of who lives and who dies esulating the death numbers. Numbers people on health insurance in the US drop hard. Insane amounts of money keeps getting pumped in to keep the wheels oiled. Supply chains fall apart, and and and...
How do you explain the statement the CDC "Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) are low overall".
Initially Italy put Covid 19 patients in rest homes, as did NY and the UK, and put a few of their hospitals under pressure. They no longer have that policy.
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/the-massacre-of-italy-s-elderly-nursi…
How do you explain the death count chart? Deaths in the US peaked in mid April and the hospital system didn't fall over.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
327,000,000 infected to go in the States. How do the hospitals cope with massive numbers? It doesn't even at low hospitalization rates. Then we have the economy cope? It dosen't.
Factor this out arround the globe and especially the countries that have not got good health care systems or a reserve currency printer.
This has been the same old from a few since the start, then the new figures come out and all quiet for a week or two then Whoop, whoop it's done and dusted, wait up new figures and quiet again.......
This is all just the start. 14,000,000 infected or have been infected globally, BILLIONS to go. One Billion is a massive number.
How many people died from malaria today? Don't know
How many kids died from malnutrition today? Don't care
How many thousands died from cancer today? Stop asking stupid questions, the only deaths that matter are CV related, don't talk about any other deaths OK! But do keep a tally 24/7 about CV it's the only illness we're allowed to talk about.
"Three million people have missed vital cancer screenings, tests or treatment since the start of lockdown as experts warn that deaths caused by delays in care will exceed coronavirus casualties."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/extra-cancer-victims-may-reach-…
Japan is making progress in getting some of its companies to shift manufacturing out of China.
Many require government support. Actually the support of the Japanese. In the past companies should have been severely penalized for even thinking about shifting manufacturing out of country. Such penalties would have at least covered the cost of bringing them back home.
It's fashionable now for companies to ponder what their purpose in life is. Is it to make the world a better place, right wrongs, be inclusive? Such nonsense is very wearing. From one extreme to another. Companies like all human organizations are very primitive entities with very little intelligence. If they could just stick to basics and stay loyal to their country and people that would be enough.
'This comes as the US makes a show of defending the rights of sea passage, but in fact is pulling back its support of traditional allies in the region.'
True to form of the last 4 decades the US steps away from others when it suits them. Fair weather sailors and not to be counted on in a fight.
Where dose that leave us with China?
My team would have have done this and your team did this.. blar, blar. They are politians, not to be trusted liers, that run a very ineffectual ship at best. We need to move away from the my team thinking and onto standing up and demanding effective management that is in fact what the people want.
We sit here in a bubble basically CV free and we should be capitalizing on that. Both National and Labour dither and try the same old build a few roads that are shovel ready in five years WTF...
There is some fairly serious money to be made in the short term, such as encouraging manufacturing plants to move their operations to NZ. Selling temporary visas to those who have the money and want safety..
If China can build hospitals in a matter of days, surely we can bang up some temporary housing , slash the the red tape and act. Bring in jobs, encourage exports, bring bucks into the country... If there is a problem that is stalling it, fix it or we will put someone in that can fix it and get the job done.
well I for one don't think that is true. In fact I think the US really screwed up WW1, their actions led to millions of needless deaths and created the environment for WW2.
They needlessly bombed Cambodia which went on to create the Pol Pot regime, which led to the deaths of %30 of the population. The USA bombed Nth Korea back into the dark ages. It also target bombed civilians in Germany at the end of WW2.
The dropped high explosive bombs on Civilian housing in cities like Dresden and then added incendiary devices this created firestorms so severe the roads melted. Women with children ran from their houses out into melted roads up to their knees, the death toll and horror was so bad they made people sign forms promising never to talk or write about it.
Over population hand wringers will have to find a new doom scenario. “The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers.
Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.
And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.
Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.”
“Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6.29 billion (4.82–8.73) in 2100”
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)3067…
That's what happens when family units go from 1 worker supporting a housewife and 4 children ('only' 70 years ago) to '2 incomes not being enough' to support just the individuals. Children? Dream on!
Those countries that do 'prosper'? The ones who are living life pretty much in the same way they did 70 years ago - SubSaharan Africa etc.
Obfuscation on purpose, Profile? Or genuine cranial unwillingness.?
The problem is that we aren't going to reduce global numbers fast enough the alleviate both global resource draw-down and global-level pollution.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-04-13/limits-to-growth-and-the-…
"Slowing growth in population and in consumption of materials and energy will not eliminate the problem. But it would reduce the pressure to increase efficiency and leave more possibility for increasing resilience".
Happy hyping
A reduction in the world's population is essential. The alternatives are too horrible to contemplate (or if you want to contemplate them read about cannabalism during the seige of Leningrad). And there is a solution (ref Hans Rosling's Factfulness) - culture and religion and even state population planning (either up or down) have little effect but reduce poverty for the bottom 1 billion and they will do what the top 6 billion have done - aim for 2 children per family instead of between 5 to 8. The cost is easy to calculate - say $3 per person per day for the 1 billion in extreme poverty = $3b per day or $1trillion per year. The annual amount will decline as people are lifted out of poverty.
Read Rachel Carson " The Silent Spring" . First published 1963 I think. When I read it's predictions in 1967, I thought it was utter rubbish. I was proved right of course. The few copies left in libraries that have not been thrown out are apparently in the fiction section. The same goes for practically every dire prediction, book, article, movie made since then. It cannot possibly be a surprise to anyone at the cynicism shown towards the authors opinions, as every opinion with a timeline on it predicting bad things has been shown to be wrong. We should all be a bit more optimistic about our descendants' future, and take these people with a grain of salt. My favourite prediction is the Shell Oil executive who told me, " the need for oil will run out before the oil does."
DDT use was banned in the US as a result.
They used to spray it out the back of a truck in my neighbourhood - we kids used to call the driver 'the bug man' and all the kids (me included) would run behind it in the cloud of pesticide. That's just how little was known/understood about insecticides then.
https://youtu.be/0-IZDcSAzoU
DDT doco. Let us spray.
Very much the same story as 1080 now days.
From 2014:
More migrants increase our incomes: NZIER - NZ Herald
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11…
It seems odd you are linking to information from 2014, when that same organisation is now saying those levels of immigration needs to be rethought.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/105948/nzier-economists-say-we-need-bui…
Lying in bed reading business news around the world..........we are in BIG trouble
Retail is in a bloodbath
Banks are facing impaired asset writedowns
Insurers are seeing premium income collapse as policies are cancelled or lapsed
Airlines are dead and the planes tyres are going square due to the weight and not moving
Restaurants are going bust
Hotels are being shuttered
The media is seeing circulation fall and advertising revenues tank
And millions of jobs are being destroyed in sectors related to the above are being lost.
And the media is fixated with Donald Trump who is worried about his economy ,as he should be, when the media focus should be on China who caused this mess .
It's not China caused this ' mess'.
It was Growth.
The virus was just a trigger; couldn't have had an impact if we'd been resilient enough; had the capacitance, shock-absorbing capability, call it what you will. Read that link I put up, a couple of comments up. There is cause and there is causal.
I am up and going to go and hit some golf balls at the Takapuna range to distract myself and stop worrying about $#!£
Then I will take the dog for walk on Long Bay beach , it's cool watching a happy dog running into the surf after a ball with not a worry in the world
I figure if I can keep my head when everyone else is losing theirs I will be okay
F'n brilliant Boatman, the most commonsense I've heard all week.. I'm off to do the same. A stunning day here in Dunners, I'm off to the St Clair beach with the dog and take it the calm before the storm. I've done all I can to be ready.
Thanks for the reference to Kipliings IF. https://youtu.be/sSSqc1qG238
The one thing that Jacinda is correct about is that it was a team of 5 million that got this done. If it was upto Jacindas team, it would have failed and very nearly did because of her team's lack of implementation. No masks on planes, really? Let new arrivals mingle with arrivals from two weeks ago, really? Ordered 15mil new masks onto of the 5mil we already had and that was enough?
History rewrites itself, not saying National would have done better but we should actually look at what happened not the PR media spin.
Yep the covid response activities done by non MoH have been good.
MoH actions have been poor.
Flu vaccine
Buying & storing PPE
Contract tracing system - (gold standard, more golden-brown)
Careless sending data breach of patient records.
Tracing APP. (anything to do with technology).
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/421414/trade-me-founder-keen-for-b…
Sam Morgan:
"That's probably the frustrating place we are at, is that every time the Health Minister, Dr Bloomfield, the prime minister hops up and tells people to use a technology that we consider has no chance of success and that really erodes our ability to deploy technology that can work."
Kezza. Yes, the team of 5m did well but our sacrifice risked being all for naught as terrible co-ordination at high level within MOH and other agencies delivered a shambolic quarantine process. It is dumb luck that we are not now Victoria. A catastrophically inept minister and soft sound bite PM were ill equipped to provide the necessary operational direction and demand accountability. I keep hoping one of the small remaining number of genuine investigative journalists NZ has left will carry out a deep dive on the dysfunctional senior officialdom responsible for this critical failure but the Jacinda saved us spin version seems to be the prevailing narrative.
It shows the power of the mainstream press. It's some serious brain dead s#*t to believe it.
I no great fan of Collins but I do hope she unleashes the real facts on NZ day in day out untill it dose sink in.
Maybe we should have a voting system that we vote for the leader / leadership team of 5 people tops and they appoint the best person to implement the command. If they do not deliver, BOOM you are sacked. No more we must have more female or Maori or whoever's else. Just the right person for the job.
Instead we get Merry because she is female, delivered 80 more flyers than anyone else, she can bring her church vote and she looks good on camera.
Kezza. Accounts of the ego driven dysfunction that generated NZs quarantine co-ordination shambles are circulating in senior public service circles. Media will be aware of these stories. We saw the tenacious detailed investigation and copious reporting of the Walker/Boag leak fiasco, rightly so in our democratic society. But of the real causes of a crippling threat to our economy and well being that a mishandled quarantine and virus escape posed, hardly a word. Why the striking contrast in media responses to both of these serious issues ? Laziness, click bait low interest effect or more sinister, a concerted cover up by an agenda driven 4th estate ?
More Climate Change. Nothing focuses the minds of money men more then seeing luxury condos being swallowed up by the ocean or by fire.
BBC New South Wales erosion: Huge swells leave homes at risk of collapse. "Huge waves have pummelled the Australian state of New South Wales, eroding some coastal areas and putting homes at risk of collapse." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53440048
That coast been like that for ages.
Best you chat with some of our local climate scientists, there is no crisis, we have many other issues that require our immediate attention.
They will tell you, our children need not be plunged into depression & despair. Talk to the climate scientists.
Background:
https://ecan.govt.nz/data/document-library/
Climate Change model for Canterbury.
Yup is just normal ah Henry
Once-in-500-year storm floods Northland, traps residents
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12349012
Take a look.
See the fourth comment by "oldtimer"
https://i.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/118031915/rangitata-bridge-to-…
You can see why the Council reaches for the CC bogeyman.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/those-homes-should-never-have-been-…
He accused Central Coast Council of declining to construct a sea wall and failing to take advantage of NSW government funding on offer for such a project, as well as preventing residents from taking any steps privately to protect their homes.
That position only changed on Saturday when council conceded residents could do whatever was necessary to protect their homes, Mr Hughes said, labelling the council’s past actions “absurd” and “insane”.
That's just bollocks Frazz. I've lived in the Bay of Islands 40 yrs and here just a few examples from memory, the floods from 1981 (Kerikeri flood), 2007 and 2013 were far worse. Metservice is totally into AGW and will exaggerate to scare us into believing it's really happening. The scarier the more money they get!
Not sure if there will be anything left to insure for some of them. There's some incredible drone footage in this article of the land erosion.
ABC news: Sea level rise will see 40pc of Australia's beaches lost, predicts new study. https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-03-03/beaches-sea-level-rise-a…
Great opinion piece here;
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/pro/is-the-pm-a-transformer-or-just-a-manager
It's an interesting question/subject. This is my favourite article on it;
https://www.open.edu/openlearn/ocw/pluginfile.php/630982/mod_resource/c…
Which describes three political positions: Status Quo, Reform and Transformation
Here's what the latter characteristics are:
Transformationists see mounting problems as rooted in fundamental features of society today and how humans interrelate and relate with the environment.
They see transformation as necessary to avoid a mounting crisis and even a possible future collapse.
Problems are viewed as being located within the very economic and power structures of society because they [the powerful] are not primarily concerned with human well-being or environmental sustainability.
While some may use the established political structures and scientific arguments they generally see a need for social and political action that involves those outside the centres of power such as indigenous groups, the poor and working class, and women.
It's a mindset that I'm sure is difficult as a politician.
US median wage record increase but it’s not good news:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-17/greatest-increase-ev…
Bubble of all bubbles happening right now in China? More stock available for sale at 2x the whole value of the U.S. residential housing market. The value of houses for sale outstrips the monetary value of the whole U.S. bond market.
“I barely had time for lunch on weekends in March” when the market started bouncing back, said Zhao Wenhao, a Shanghai-based agent at Lianjia, one of China’s largest real-estate brokerage firms. Many clients worry China’s currency will depreciate in the global economic slowdown, he said, driving even more money into housing as a haven.
The resulting asset bubble, many economists say, now eclipses the one in U.S. housing in the 2000s. At the peak of the U.S. property boom, about $900 billion a year was being invested in residential real estate. In the 12 months ended in June, about $1.4 trillion was invested in Chinese housing. More was invested last month in Chinese real estate than any other month on record.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-property-real-estate-boom-covid-pand…
All the centeral banks scrambling to keep the lid on. Some say it is all part of the master plan and all just a hoax to manipulate and gain power pushing the worlds population into further debt. I think it is all just a mess that they can not control and they have no plan, they are just trying to keep their heads above water and croossing their fingers that they can.
Last few weeks of SARS2 cases of arrivals from Africa, India, Pakistan virus hotspots - limited visa holders - are these actually returning kiwis? The risk factor is considerably higher from these locations.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300060177/coronavir…
1, 2 & 3 year residents visa holders are also permitted and are entering NZ from SARS2 hotspots.
Many of these obtained a limited visa, then returned to country of origin, now are electing to use their resident visa due to NZs elimination status. This is a risk that NZers should be concerned about.
Unless you have a wish to be locked down & enjoy WFH again?
No I do not want to be locked down again - not sure what gave you that idea ...
I support tightening the border even if it means inconveniences for the arriving people - if electronic bracelets , quarantine pre-booking , tougher punishments for breaking the rules are needed so be it.
I did not know that 1, 2 & 3 year residents visa holders are also permitted ; having said that many of them will have spouses and children still/already lawfully here so I do not think it would be particularly fair ( or perhaps more importantly ) politically tenable to deny them entry.
The reason I responded to you posts is that I really think it to be counterproductive to conflate the general immigration debate ( whichever side of it you are on it is not going to be resolved quickly .. ) with the critically important matter at hand - which is short-term border management.
Some on this forum think that only citizens should be allowed it ; others would limit it only to tax residents ; others say "you should be excluded if you hold another citizenship in addition to NZ" etc. etc. We could debate this forever - and there is not really a "fair" solution to it . Better focus on tightening the controls on the border than on the vexed eligibility to return issue.
Hardly a week goes by without a song and dance example by Dileepa Fonseka on newsroom.co.nz
As you are aware the Government does not publish the details of the people arriving at the border. What has been revealed is the origin of people who arrive and are diagnosed with CV19 and are quarantined
in other words you do not have any evidence to support your claim of "extraordinary number of Temporary Visa holders" - they should really publish this but while they do not you should not make those unfounded claims.
And no - we do not have the data on the "origin" of people who arrive and are diagnosed - all we have is where they got on their flights which is a poor proxy.
Here’s a snapshot of a couple of recent weeks - publicly available data on MoH:
USA & India likely to be country of residence. Australia more difficult to know as a common transit. But most returners find it difficult to transit via many countries especially if longer period or outside of transit lounge.
India AI1316 27/06/2020 28/06/2020
8/07/2020 Female 20 to 29 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India
AI1316 2/07/2020 3/07/2020
8/07/2020 Male 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes Australia
NZ1937 4/07/2020 4/07/2020
7/07/2020 Male 20 to 29 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India
AI1316 3/07/2020 3/07/2020
7/07/2020 Male 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India
AI1316 2/07/2020 3/07/2020
6/07/2020 Female 20 to 29 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes Australia
NZ1935 2/07/2020 2/07/2020
6/07/2020 Female 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes Australia NZ1935 2/07/2020 2/07/2020
6/07/2020 Male 20 to 29 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes Australia NZ104 4/07/2020 4/07/2020
5/07/2020 Female 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India SQ401 29/06/2020 30/06/2020
5/07/2020 Male 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India SQ401 29/06/2020 30/06/2020
5/07/2020 Male 70+ Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India SQ401 29/06/2020 30/06/2020
2/07/2020 Female 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes Australia NZ142 21/06/2020 21/06/2020
1/07/2020 Male 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes United States of America NZ5 25/06/2020 27/06/2020
29/06/2020 Female 20 to 29 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes United States of America NZ5 16/06/2020 18/06/2020
28/06/2020 Male 50 to 59 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India AI1316 23/06/2020 24/06/2020
27/06/2020 Female 20 to 29 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India AI1316 17/06/2020 18/06/2020
27/06/2020 Male 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes Australia NZ102 23/06/2020 23/06/2020
27/06/2020 Male 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India AI1316 21/06/2020 21/06/2020
27/06/2020 Male 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India AI1316 23/06/2020 24/06/2020
27/06/2020 Female 30 to 39 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India AI1316 14/06/2020 15/06/2020
26/06/2020 Male 20 to 29 Managed isolation & quarantine Yes India
Yes, agree - electronic bracelets, 21 day isolation, user pays, 6 month jail for escapees, use of the military, testing for each passenger before boarding in country of origin, - whatever measures are needed.
At the monument someone could test negative on day12, catch SARS from a hotel neighbour, then be walking freely in the community on day 15 unaware of their spreading.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421494/one-new-case-of-covid-19-in-…
So re the new case: What flight did he arrive on? If in isolation previously, what contact has he had with other isolationists?
Here is the recent MoH of Coronavirus list of latest arrivals.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…
It may be safer for the NZ Govt to only allow full citizens and Permanent Residents back into the country.
And to deny access to people that are travelling in and out of the country risking the team of 5 million.
And more on their way here:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122164761/qatar-airways-and…
.
“The flights come as the New Zealand Government works to add capacity to its managed isolation facilities, which are at risk of being overwhelmed due to a surge of Kiwis returning home to seek refuge from the worsening coronavirus pandemic”
What makes the Swiss alps amazing is not just that the ranges are much, much bigger and the mountains taller than NZ, it's the fact that there are many beautiful villages up in the mountains which means you can stay up the mountain for the weekend or a for whole week.
I'm not sure Europeans come to NZ for the alpine scenery, for the scenery in general, absolutely, for sure. In my opinion, seen from Euro eyes, NZ is a very exotic destination, NZ's remoteness and clean, green image (whether real or perceived) is a big appeal. Possibly also Kiwis' friendly attitude. Lastly escaping northern winter to enjoy summer in January February.
Will fewer Europeans (or people from other continents) come to NZ?
The first obvious answer is NO of course not, there's no travel for the foreseeable future. Then again, NZ has a MASSIVE drawcard when travel resumes, NO CV! It's quite possible/likely that whenever travel resumes and CV is mostly? under control, travellers will have a good look at how badly the destination country was affected by CV, if that's the case, NZ is at the very top of the wishlist. Very hard to tell now, there's so much uncertainty (even NZ could all of a sudden have a spread of new cases)
The way they speak German is great. Not an assault on the ears as A German accent. I used to get put with a Swiss guy at work in Frankfurt. The German guys said, we don't understand you or him so you will work together and you will not understand each other. Once you get the flow, it's easy.
I saw a report recently that said that some businesses in Ohio and Michigan had been given court approval to proceed with business interruption claims lawsuits against their insurers over Covid 19 and associated lockdowns. If successful, such claims could severely test all insurance companies and their re-insurers..
Post Sunday Roast viewing
Oxford epidemiologists, UK and Europe based.
Suppression strategy - not viable.
https://youtu.be/Z3plSbCbkSA
Question. How much better now, compared to February, how much better now is the "HealthSystem" to add Covid19 to all the other health events to deal with.
Shiller's recent thoughts:
How does this work?
Arrival 30 June.
Todays date 19th July.
The Health Ministry said the third case is a woman in her 70s who arrived in New Zealand on 30 June from India.
She was already in quarantine in the Chateau on the Park in Christchurch after a family member tested positive.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421532/three-new-cases-of-covid-19-…
2 cases from Afghanistan, 1 from India.
Time to close down entrants from high risk countries regardless of visa status. It was done during lockdown. And even before lockdown China was banned.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300060506/coronavir…
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