Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either. But we suspect a main bank will take term deposit rates to new lows next week, possible more than one of them. Update: Westpac has reduced its TD offering, but only to levels already in place from their main rivals.
ANZ's truckometer index was out today for September, reporting a good bounceback in activity. The Light Traffic Index (essentially car traffic) bounced back +12.3% in September, while the Heavy Traffic one (trucks) lifted +4.1% as the Alert Level restrictions eased. Both indexes are higher versus a year ago, reflecting, says ANZ, "catch-up activity rather than an economy running hot. But still, it’s encouraging".ANZ-Truckometer-20201009.pdf
SEPTEMBER DATA DUE
REINZ announced that their September sales volume and price data will be released next Tuesday, October 13, 2020.
HANGING IN THERE
In Auckland, households have been conserving water much better than target and despite there being little rain recently, reservoir levels haven't reduced much and are still 67% full. La Niña conditions may be enough for the City to get through the summer. That's the hope, anyway.
ONE SECTOR STILL STRONG
Commitment for home loans in Australia rose sharply in August according to data released today. They were up almost +13% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July and are now more than +14% higher than the same month in 2019. Over the past twelve months, these commitments are up almost +10% compared to the equivalent twelve months to August 2019. These results are much more than was expected and the impact of the Victorian lockdown is nowhere to be seen. However personal lending in August (other than for housing) is down -12% compared to August 2019.
The RBA's latest financial stability review is somber reading. Business failures and household financial stress will rise significantly over the coming months when loan repayment deferrals and government income supports end, they say.
In the US, their budget deficit tripled in the fiscal year ended September. It widened to -US$3.1 tln from just under -US$1 tln a year earlier. Four years ago this Administration inherited an annual deficit of -$585 bln. This is the largest and fastest deterioration ever. As a share of GDP, the annual 2020deficit reached -15.2%, the largest since World War II.
GOLD PRICE LUP
The price of gold is now at US$1898/oz in early Asian trading, and up another +US$13 from yesterday's equivalent price. That is +US$4 more than the closing price in New York earlier, and +$US11 more than the London afternoon fix.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended trading earlier up +0.8%. The four days of trading so far this week, they have posted a +2.9% rise. Shanghai has reopened after their week's-long break and is up +1.4% in early trade. Hong Kong is +0.2%, and Tokyo is flat so far in their opening session but they are heading for a +2.8% gain for the week. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in mid-day trade but is heading for a very good weekly rise of +5.2%. The NZX50 Capital Index is up +0.2% near the close and heading for a +3.7% weekly gain.
SWAP & BOND RATES RISE
We don’t have the final data for today yet and if it is significant we will update it here. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged today to 0.28%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -2 bps at 0.86%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +5 bps at 3.21% as their markets get back into gear. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -1 bp at 0.54% and matching the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.54% (-2 bps). And the NZGB five year is down -6 bps and is now back at +0.01% pa. The US Govt ten year is down -1 bp from this time yesterday to just over 0.78%.
NZD BACK UP
The Kiwi dollar is up almost +½% from this time yesterday at 66 USc and making back most of yesterday's fall. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 56.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is up at 69.2.
Bitcoin is much stronger in today's trade, now at US$10,881 and a gain of +2.4%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».