A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more TD rate cuts, population updates, rising NZGB bond yields, job ads stutter back, swaps stay low, NZD rises, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more TD rate cuts, population updates, rising NZGB bond yields, job ads stutter back, swaps stay low, NZD rises, & more
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. Update: Westpac has trimmed its 1 year home loan rate.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut term deposit rates matching the super low rates of its main rivals. The Co-operative Bank cut savings rates. Bank of Baroda also cut TD rates.

SELECTED TRAVEL COVER FOR EPIDEMIC AND PANDEMIC DISEASES
Insurer Allianz has said it is bringing back some limited pandemic cover. While there will still be a general exclusion for epidemics and pandemics, there will be provision to claim for cancellation if travellers contract an epidemic or pandemic disease such as COVID-19 after purchasing their policy and can no longer travel. Cover for medical claims directly related to an epidemic or pandemic disease such as COVID-19 will only apply after travellers commence their journey. The cost of this limited cover was not disclosed, however.

OUT AS MUCH AS UP
Auckland’s population grew by +37,000 in the year to June, or +2.2%. That involved migrant arrivals of +36,700, and a "natural increase" (that is, more births than deaths) of +12,800. But -12,600 people moved out to other regions in the same period. Relatively, the Bay of Plenty grew the fastest (+2.8% or +9100)) while the West Coast the slowest (+0.2% or +100). Back in Auckland the fastest-growing areas were Howick (+2.5% or +3800), Papakura (+4.6% or +2900), Upper Harbour (+4.0% or +2800), Hibiscus Coast (+3.0% or +3400) and Rodney (+3.6% or +2500). Large housing developments drove all these increases. These five outer suburbs accounted for nearly half of Auckland's population rise and show that the City is still spreading fast.

ANOTHER GOVT BOND TENDER
Treasury tendered $660 mln in four bond tranches today, drawing $2.3 bln in bids and leaving $1.6 bln unsatisfied. Yields were higher in all tranches. The April 2024 $250 mln tranche went for a yield of 0.02% pa. The April 2031 tranche yielded 0.57% pa on average. The May 2041 tranche yielded 1.24% pa. The May 2035 IIB however went for -0.41% plus CPI.

RISING AGAIN
The Fonterra share price is now up at $4.30 in trade today, its highest in more than a year. You have to go back to March 2019 to get a higher traded price. (The highest ever price was $8.00 in May 2013. The lowest ever price was $3.41 in May 2020.) The recent gains are an affirmation of the company's restructuring progress, it's pay-down of debt and the related quitting of underperforming divisions.

BUILDING BACK, BUT NOT STRONGER
The latest SEEK NZ Quarterly Employment Report data shows Q3 job ad levels -28% lower than at the same time a year ago. But they are up strongly from the collapse in Q2. They say the five sectors that have the highest number of roles right now are ICT, Trade & Services, Logistics, Healthcare, and Admin/Office Support. Most are roles that were the first to be cut in the early stages of the pandemic. But roles in Construction are the hardest to find.

BNZ MUM ON REPORT OF LIFE INSURANCE SALE
BNZ's parent National Australia Bank is in talks to sell "sub-scale New Zealand business" BNZ Life, according to The Australian Financial Review. The AFR suggests AIA, Resolution Life and Partners Life as the most likely acquirers, noting BNZ Life had about 4% of NZ's life insurance premium pool last year. A BNZ spokesman told interest.co.nz: "We don’t comment on speculation."

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FALLS IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, mass uptake of rooftop solar (PV) systems coupled with changes in energy use due to the COVID-19 pandemic reduced national electricity demand in the third quarter of 2020. The Victorian lockdown was also a major factor. As a result, prices fell.

GOLD PRICE LOWER
The price of gold is now at US$1917 in early Asian trading, and down -US$2 from this time yesterday. It is also -US$5 lower than the closing New York price earlier today, and was the same as the afternoon fix in London. Silver is dipping too.

EQUITIES UPDATE
At the end of trading today in New York, the S&P500 was down -0.2%. Shanghai has opened today sharply lower by -1.7% and Hong Kong and Tokyo are both -0.7% down in early trade. The ASX200 is down -0.6% in early afternoon trade and the NZX50 Capital Index is down -0.4% in late trade.

SWAPS LOW, BONDS UNCHANGED
Yesterday, swap rates slipped with the two and three year rates getting down closer to zero again. We don’t have the final data for today yet and if it is significant we will update it here. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.27%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +2 bps at 0.81%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -2 bps at 3.20%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -1 bp at 0.58% and the same as the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.56% (+2 bps). The US Govt ten year is down -1 bp at 0.81%.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is back rising again and now at just on 66.4 USc, again mainly on USD weakness. Against the Aussie we have also risen to 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up too at 56.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is up at 69.6.

BITCOIN UP STRONGLY
Bitcoin is up another +7.2% from this time yesterday, now at US$12,878. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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12 Comments

Re: Seek data: does "Roles in Construction are the hardest to find" mean that there are few positions advertised, or that it's hard to fill the positions? I thought there was a shortage of builders?

I thought there was a shortage of builders?

The release still reports a shortage. The data classifies vocational building trades under Trades & Services along with automotive trades, technicians, carpentry & cabinet making, electricians, etc. This cohort witnessed a bounce back of 56%, contributing the most to the growth of overall numbers.

Construction on SEEK includes professionals such as project managers, civil engineers, architects, quantity surveyors, and so on.

There is a shortage of builders; a serious shortage of bricklayers, & shortage of skilled concrete workers

Just two things

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018769516/ne...
- click thru to audio.

Sir David Skegg, is an epidemiologist at the University of Otago Medical School and former chairman of the Public Health Commission, Health Research Council and New Zealand Science Board.

He's concerned at the levels of general complacency reflected at both public and government agency level.

And not so much this
https://youtu.be/ftxnr28LDXc
We are past the Robin feather his nest..

i agree with him, i never understood why they never continued with the wearing off masks on public transport, i caught the train last week and there was a lady coughing and sneezing (at level one) but she still had a mask on, and everone left space around her. at first i thought why are you going to work sick? then i thought about a friend that could not get time off during the week to see the doctor for chest pains and she had to wait three days for saturday to go, so i thought maybe she has to work
the latest case caught with 3 minutes exposure, so i hope they can ring fence this fast

auckland 's face is changing year on year, it will be interesting to see in a hundred years if auckland has a different kiwi drawl compared to the rest of NZ, bit like you can pick a deep southlander now.
when i look at the two political parties makeup you have national old new Zealand and labour new nz.

100 years? Perhaps a 1920 redux might be it? As a Saudi saying went, when a father was contemplating the future with his son:
"Your grandfather rode on a camel. I, your father, rode in a Rolls Royce. You ride in a 747, and your son will ride on a camel"

That's very debatatable s/t, I talked to a South African and an Indian at work the other day and neither of them had any time for Labour.

Clearly Labour is doomed.

"After PayPal‘a news, every major bank is having a meeting about how to support bitcoin. It’s no longer optional."

Chamath Palihapitiya

Im a software engineer at one of the banks. We had a proof of concept demo'd to us for Bitcoin and Ethereum denominated accounts in 2017, nothing ever came of it obviously. I wonder if it might get revisited at some point in the next year or 2.

Kraken, a US Bitcoin exchange got a banking license earlier this year so I suspect there's going to be more and more overlap in the space in the near future.

Bitcoin is still in the innovator phase, only just getting to early adopter. CBDC's are on the very near horizon. Digital currencies are going to change the face of finance as we know it. No more creating money out of thin air. BTC will be the new reserve currency. It'll conservatively be 50k+ by the end of 2021 as more and more companies like Microstrategy realise this.