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LIVE: US Election results as they come in. America on tenterhooks. Biden now appears close to victory - but the Trump campaign is signalling all sorts of legal challenges

LIVE: US Election results as they come in. America on tenterhooks. Biden now appears close to victory - but the Trump campaign is signalling all sorts of legal challenges
4th Nov 20, 1:07pm by Jenée Tibshraeny
Donald Trump, Joe Biden. Images sourced from Flickr.

By Jenée Tibshraeny, Gareth Vaughan & David Hargreaves

Americans have voted on whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden should take the presidency and lead them through the Covid-19 crisis.

The interest.co.nz team is keeping tabs on the results as they come in, updating this blog.

More than 101 million votes were cast before polls opened on election day, putting the election on track to garnering the highest turnout in more than a century.

States to watch include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

Every state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on their population, with a total of 538 votes assigned. So, whichever candidate has a majority of 270 votes wins the presidency.

Polls suggested Biden was the favourite.

Saturday, 7:50am

Biden now leads in Nevada (+20,000), Georgia (+1500) and Pennsylvania (+13,000), and if those leads hold, it will be enough to claim the win. Biden's lead in Arizona holds (+43,000) despite a small comeback for Trump. Trump is left claiming vote counting should stop where he trails, and should continue where he leads, a tone-deaf position.

Biden now leads the popular vote by almost +4 mln (and double the Clinton lead four years ago).

Friday, 3:48pm

It's really tight in Georgia...

2:35pm
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, in a speech delivered at a BusinessNZ event at lunchtime, made these comments about the US election:

Yesterday, like many of you, I watched the results of the US election roll in, and I couldn’t help but reflect on our own elections in recent years.

No matter where you sit on the political spectrum, I’d like to think we can agree that a strong democracy requires a few pre conditions.

Citizens that believe in their system, and participate in it. Political parties that believe and support the system too.  And, perhaps this last point is a little more debateable, but I’ve increasingly come to believe that we have to find ways that strong views can be held, and expressed, but without the accompanying partisanship that stops us from working to build consensus where it really matters.

We are living in an increasingly divided world. There are many people out there who could no doubt provide a range of evidence based theories as to why that is the case.  From where I sit it feels as though we have a borderless world for things like trade and the exchange of people and skills, and yet, rather than this leading to people being exposed to new and different ideas and ways of thinking, the advent of technology and the creation of online platforms has led us instead to find and build our tribes to entrench our existing views. Places where we can lock in our opinions, where we can further reinforce them, rather than allow ourselves to be questioned and have our perspectives tested.

The emergence of a global pandemic over the course of the past year has undoubtedly exacerbated these issues.  There is no question that there are certain facts about a pandemic that are just that – facts.

Where the debate exists is the space between those facts, and the strategy a country and its leaders choose to deploy in the face of them.

12:15pm
Joining Fox News, the Associated Press has called Michigan for Biden, taking him within six votes of the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.

Meanwhile, Trump is not showing signs of going quietly, should he lose in the Electoral College.

The Washington Post reports the United States has recorded more than 100,000 new coronavirus infections in a single day for the first time.

Midday
Biden's transition website is live. It's called buildbackbetter.com.

The American people will determine who will serve as the next President of the United States. Votes are still being counted in several states around the country. The crises facing the country are severe — from a pandemic to an economic recession, climate change to racial injustice — and the transition team will continue preparing at full speed so that the Biden‑Harris Administration can hit the ground running on Day One.

10:55am
A number of media outlets - though not yet AP - have called Michigan for Biden.

With the 16 votes from there this would currently give Biden 253 electoral college votes to 214 for Trump. Remember, 270 is the magic number to win.

10:30am
Joe Biden has been speaking.

He says it is “clear” he will get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

"I‘m not here to declare that we won, but I am here to report that when the count is finished, we will be the winner."

Meanwhile the Trump campaign has falsely claimed victory in Pennysylvania despite there being over a million votes still to count.

Including Wisconsin as a win for Biden, the current state of play is Biden 237 electoral votes to 214 for Trump.

8:25am
So, where are we?

As it stands Biden appears to have a path to exactly 270 electoral college votes, which is the number needed for a win.

Officially as of now Biden has 227 votes and Trump 213.

The AP has declared Biden the winner in Wisconsin, which carries 10 votes. 

He's ahead (narrowly) in Michigan (16 votes), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). Of these, Nevada looks vulnerable, with the lead only about 8000 with still 14% of the vote to be counted.

Meanwhile all sorts of noise is coming out of the Trump camp, with his re-election campaign saying it had filed a lawsuit to halt the counting of ballots in the Michigan.

This is not going to be over quickly.

Friday, 7:15am
In his morning note BNZ senior markets strategist Jason Wong says financial markets have taken the close US election results and associated uncertainty in their stride, with US equities surging ahead and currency markets unperturbed. Wong says the Treasury market has cheered the lack of a blue wave with associated spend and borrow implications, seeing the 10-year rate down 12 basis points for the day to 0.78%.

"The full US election results are still unknown and it might take a few more days to tally the results, or longer if recounts are involved to get a final outcome. Biden leads Trump 238-213 in the bid to get 270 electoral college votes, with five battleground states – MI, PA, WI, GA and NC – still up for grabs, although Biden now leads the count in some of those and the bias of postal votes also favours him. Biden is odds-on about 80% to take the prize, according to betting sites, with a much easier path to victory than Trump from here.  The Senate race is currently tied 47-47, with a couple of toss-ups and a special run-off in Georgia on 5 January, so that race remains too close to call," Wong says.

"Despite the lack of a result and Trump’s threat to roll in the lawyers to dispute the outcome, markets are seeing the result in a positive light. As we noted yesterday, gridlock isn’t necessarily a bad thing and from an economic perspective is better for the medium-term outlook. Any forthcoming stimulus is likely to be more targeted in nature, and a much-reduced quantum means less borrowing and less need for monetary financing of that debt – positive for US Treasuries and less negative for the USD. On the topic of fiscal stimulus, the Senate’s McConnell said 'we need to do a stimulus bill before the end of the year,' a positive sign as the Senate majority leader was a key proponent of stalling the process before the election."

"For the equity market, while a near-term fiscal sugar rush no longer seems imminent, there is also less chance of a roll back of Trump’s tax cuts and less regulatory risk overhanging the market. The S&P500 is currently up some 3½%, led by Health Care, Communication Services, IT and and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Big Tech stocks have outperformed and the Nasdaq index is up closer to 4½%," says Wong.

"US Treasuries have been on a wild ride, up to a fresh high of 0.94% as the first election results started rolling in and the market fearing a 'blue wave,' but as it became clearer that the race was much closer for the Presidency and the Senate, yields began to tumble and they fell further overnight, currently down 12bps for the day to 0.78%. The much flatter yield curve has seen Financial stocks significantly underperform, barely higher against the strong rally elsewhere."

"In currency markets, relative to this time yesterday, the USD is generally weaker, but movements have been small, excluding the Scandis, all within 0.3%. The NZD is flat at 0.6700 after traversing a wide 0.6614-0.6744 range during the early counting of results.  If we take the NZ market close as a reference point, there is more noticeable evident weakness in the USD. The NZD is generally weaker on the crosses. The AUD pushed up through 0.72 during early counting, fell to 0.7050 and has recovered to nearly 0.72 again. NZD/AUD has pushed down to 0.9315, with plenty more downside left in the tank to reverse its recent strong and unjustified rally," Wong says.

Thursday, 6:30am
Election Day is turning into election week, as ABC News puts it, with vote counting continuing across the US, as preliminary results show tight races in several key battleground states. Candidates need 270 Electoral College votes to secure the presidency. ABC News projects Trump currently has 213, and Biden 225.

Fox News reports the race now appears to hinge on Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile Al Jazeera notes both Trump and Biden apparently expect to win. They have Biden at 238 Electoral College votes and Trump on 213.

The Hill reports that bipartisan lawmakers have condemned Trump for declaring victory prematurely.

9:04pm
That's us for today. We will be back with coverage in the morning. Goodnight! 

9:02pm
The swing states are comfortably in favour of Trump at the moment, as per this New York Times infographic. 

Biden remains ahead according to the presidential results, but Trump is hot on his heels. The New York Times has Biden at 225 and Trump at 213 votes. 270 votes are needed to win. 

8:40pm
Trump's speech is difficult to make sense of. He falsely claimed he won a number of states and said: "We'll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop." Presumably he meant he wanted vote counting to stop. 

8:30pm
Trump is claiming “success”, telling those gathered at the White House the results thus far are “beautiful”.  

"We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election," he said.

8:22pm
Trump is about to speak:

7:09pm
A dig at Winston Peters by National's foreign affairs spokesperson, Simon Bridges:

6:57pm
The latest from the New York Times. It looks like Trump has Florida in the bag:

6:53pm
Twitter has swiftly deleted this tweet by Trump. Note the spelling error and potential suggestion of nefariousness in the election process:

6:48pm
And Trump is right in there too:

6:46pm
Biden is optimistic: “We believe we’re on track to win this election...

"Keep the faith guys. We're going to win this."

He stressed the race wasn't over until all the votes were counted and said we could know the result as early as tomorrow morning (US time).

6:40pm
I take back what I said earlier... Biden is going to speak:

6:37pm
From Bloomberg:

6:10pm
It’s looking increasingly likely Trump will hold on to Ohio. He’s at 53%, Biden’s at 45%. 89% of the votes have been counted. CNN projects the state is Trump’s.  

6:08pm
Biden isn't committing to speaking to the public this evening.

6:02pm
The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is lower today than it was earlier in the week, but is still relatively high. The index represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Here's a chart showing a fall in the index over the past five days:

And here's a chart that contextualises the situation over the year:

5:33pm
Fox News reckons Biden has flipped Arizona. Biden is at 54% versus Trump at 45%. 75% of the vote has been counted.

5:28pm
A lot of red in this New York Times graphic:

5:26pm
Bloomberg reporter, Saleha Mohsin:

5:07pm
Trump has taken to Twitter: 

5:02pm
Trump looking to secure battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgina, while Biden is leading the charge in Arizona.

4:45pm
According to ABC News, with 33% of expected vote reporting, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania with 55% to Biden's 44%.

In the all important electoral college, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the 2020 presidential election.

4:30pm
The Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives, US TV networks say. This was expected. A key question is whether the Democrats can wrestle control of the Senate off the Republicans.

Worth noting that Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, a QAnon supporter, won a House seat in Georgia. And rising Democrat star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez crushed her Republican opponent in New York, who raised US$10 million in his attempt to unseat her.

4:15pm
It's still too soon to call it, but it's looking as if Trump may be re-elected. Pennsylvania and Arizona are being touted as the key states for Biden.

4:10pm
NBC's exit poll page has detailed breakdowns by gender, ethnicity, age and level of education on how the voting is playing out. Exit polls are surveys of voters taken as they exit their polling place.

Whatever the ultimate outcome of the election, it appears the polls are quite a bit off the mark again, as in 2016.

3:56pm
Craigs Investment Partners Head of Private Wealth Research, Craig Lister, has tweeted a market update:

3:45pm
CNN commentators sounding downbeat on Biden. 

3:27pm
Trump and Biden are neck-and-neck in Texas on 49% each, with 72% of the votes counted. The New York times says polls suggest Trump will take the state, but Biden could cause an upset.

3:13pm
Trump is ahead in Florida, 51% to 48%. 93% of the votes have been counted here. Polls showed a tight race in this state.

2:42pm
Biden is trying to pinch North Carolina off Trump. Biden is ahead, 53% to 46%, with 67% of the votes counted. A number of these votes were early and early votes tend to be more Democrat. The state had voted Republican in nine out of the past 10 elections.

2:20pm
Biden ahead in the swing-state of Ohio - 56% versus 43%. 41% of votes counted here.

2:15pm
Still too close to call in Florida but Trump seems to have an advantage. About a third of votes have now been counted in Texas, and Biden is still leading even though he not expected to win there. Still, it is a stronger showing than expected.

2:00pm
US ABC News is projecting Trump will win Georgia, but only 10% of that vote is counted so far. Polls have now closed in the Florida Panhandle region, one that will deliver a strong vote for Trump. In Texas, they have counted 10% of their vote and Biden is ahead, but most of that vote will be from cosmopolitan cities.

1:55pm
Tied now in Florida, with 81% of vote counted.

1:40pm
Biden is only just ahead of Trump in Georgia - 50% to 49% with only 5% of the votes counted.

1:30pm
With half the vote counted in Florida, Trump has a small lead. He won Florida in 2016.

1:15pm
The first important states to watch are Florida and Georgia. Both have had a head start in counting early votes, and both count quickly (because they do machine-counting).The Trump parts of the state (the Panhandle) will come in late, so unless Biden gets a very big lead early, it may be hard to hold. Georgia could be interesting.

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123 Comments

by  Te Kooti  |  4th Nov 20, 1:15pm 1604448930

I can't see the Dem's getting ambushed this time. My pick is the honeymoon period won't last long for the Dem's, they have been united by their loathing of Trump, but once he's gone and the parties are over, the power play's will start. No need for sleepy Joe anymore, particularly if he can't remember where he is.

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by  tothepoint - d…  |  4th Nov 20, 1:22pm 1604449343

Hi TK,

I hope you're correct about the Democrats ousting Trump.

The thought of another 4 years of Trump is horrific.

TTP

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by  Te Kooti  |  4th Nov 20, 1:32pm 1604449950

I'm actually agnostic. Trump is a narcistic oaf but the blind hatred of him is irrational. His regime has had it's positives. I really dislike the way Biden get's a free pass from the media. This has been the least war-mongering US regime in my life.

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by  Fritz  |  4th Nov 20, 2:17pm 1604452646

Good points.
I would rather have Biden than Trump, but not by much.
The biggest issue with Trump is the divisiveness he has created.
But he's stood up to China, and certainly has not been a war monger.

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by  Uncle Bulgaria  |  4th Nov 20, 3:29pm 1604456979

In 2019 Trump dropped more bombs in Afghanistan than anyone since 2006 (since records began). Also dropped more bombs in Yemen. This idea that he doenst interfere abroad is utter nonsense.

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by  Ngrrk  |  4th Nov 20, 6:23pm 1604467385

Have you got a source for that figure?

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by  Palmtree08  |  5th Nov 20, 5:22pm 1604550165

I guess the biggest problem with Trump, is his refusal to accept the science around climate. The man is an ecoterrorist! As the biosphere collapses this idiot has been busy appointing science deniers to the most important climate organisations on the planet! Hatred is appropriate for such an individual. The future of civilisation is at risk! https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-science-denie…

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by  fortunr  |  6th Nov 20, 8:45am 1604605502

Exactly right. Saying that Trump was not too bad is, quoting W.Pauli, "not even wrong", as it ignores this totally crucial aspect. This is an extremely challenging problem that might prove overwhelming unless global solutions are implemented, yes with no panic and while trying to preserve the economy, but with a real sense of urgency.
Furthermore, Trump's denial of science is representative of an American undercurrent that includes creationists, evangelists, climate science deniers and navitivists, all united in their desire to take the US back to a pre-Enlightenment cultural world.
Once you start denying science and you promote irrationalism , you get into a very dangerous slippery slope that includes not just denying climate change, but several other cultural, social and political aspects that together define the very nature of the society in which you live.
Moreover, the post-truth climate magnified by Trump, with its world of "alternative facts" is equally dangerous. Once facts become secondary to how loud you proclaim your "truth", you get into very dangerous territory, into the same frame of mind represented by Goebbels "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it". Watching a Trump's rally is really a sobering experience, a testament to the failures of the public educational system in the US, and to the wave of irrationalism and simple-minded populism that brought him to power. When we have a US president systematically oversimplifying the complexities and nuances of contemporary reality within the 140-characters of a Tweet in the middle of the night, we are in serious trouble indeed.
It is not just about the economy: Germany's economy was in a mess when Hitler was elected Chancellor in January 1933, and he apparently put it on a significantly better track. So, according to a purely short-term economic perspective, many would have said (and did say) that he was not too bad, after all. Reality is much more multi-dimensional, complex and nuanced than just a couple of economic indicators, and any reasonable judgment must encompass all such aspects.

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by  paashaas  |  4th Nov 20, 4:04pm 1604459097

Yes - just as horrific as the thought of 4 years of Biden/Harris .

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by  Pusheen  |  4th Nov 20, 5:08pm 1604462883

Trump is actually good enough to protect US patch in world RE, he just bit dislike to the Chinese RE expansion worldwide. So depends on which side of the coin we are, those that benefitted from China RE expansion? or those that the curbing of it by Trump rubbing influence.
He's approach in management indeed is simplistic, but we often hear the best solution out there is actually the simplest way. I'm honestly, on the fence. Can see the previous administration, same old same old and can see the potential of new approach, albeit can tip to good & bad.

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by  guwop  |  4th Nov 20, 11:33pm 1604485989

@TTP, your whole livelyhood depends on low to negative interest rates. You should support Trump and walk your talk pal.

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by  OreoContrarian  |  4th Nov 20, 1:40pm 1604450406

GO TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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by  Mrs The Point  |  4th Nov 20, 3:26pm 1604456782

News just in: "Florida man votes for Trump"

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by  Te Kooti  |  4th Nov 20, 4:09pm 1604459368

It looks like I was wrong, betting odds are saying Trump has already won.

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by  Te Kooti  |  4th Nov 20, 4:13pm 1604459583
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by  realterms  |  5th Nov 20, 9:16am 1604520962

And now they're saying that he's lost. Has been a terrible 24hr for the pollsters, and not brilliant for the betting markets.

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by  Te Kooti  |  5th Nov 20, 11:42am 1604529734

We'll need a new scream from a redneck!!

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by  PocketAces  |  5th Nov 20, 6:47am 1604512026

He won't go willingly, he'll need to be dragged out, screaming "I told them not to count all the votes"

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by  linklater01  |  5th Nov 20, 8:23am 1604517788

OreoContrarian,

And with luck, he will go. If Biden gets the 270 electoral college votes needed, then I don't see even a Conservative Supreme Court blocking him from the Presidency. What trump fears most is not just losing, but the avalanche of lawsuits that he would face.

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by  Fangdangle  |  5th Nov 20, 8:56am 1604519773

Ditto for Biden and his family.

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by  realterms  |  5th Nov 20, 9:14am 1604520860

Uh. The sitting president is protected from suits, so losing office exposes him. Joe Biden has been nothing but a private citizen for the last 4 years.

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by  Fangdangle  |  5th Nov 20, 9:34am 1604522098

Hunter Bidens laptop has only just come into play. The suppression of that in the media has outstanding.

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by  realterms  |  5th Nov 20, 10:53am 1604526790

Go away. We don't need or want people who joined yesterday posting this twaddle.

I think you'll find that it's Joe Biden, not Hunter, running for office.

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by  Fangdangle  |  5th Nov 20, 1:35pm 1604536510

That is a very socialist welcome.

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by  Rhumline  |  5th Nov 20, 8:07pm 1604560060

.

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by  printer8  |  4th Nov 20, 2:24pm 1604453094

The polls don’t seem to be reflected in early results.
Too early to call - the next few hours and days/weeks will be interesting.

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  4th Nov 20, 1:23pm 1604449402

A crook vs a narcissist, chosen from 300 million. Gotta wonder.

But affluence cannot be voted for, only the loss of its temporary state can be voted against. Until disbelief in the system becomes endemic.

Which can't be far away. Pity we're still repeating the US MSM picture; Clinton (H) was voted out. She represented the Establishment, something our MSM missed (Watkin rabbiting on about how it would have been good to have a woman in, for example). The voters don't really have an option, and - via social media, the MSM and corporate propaganda - don't understand what is happening to them. Interesting times.

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by  RickStrauss  |  4th Nov 20, 3:47pm 1604458030

Biden is a narcissist?

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by  fat pat  |  4th Nov 20, 8:52pm 1604476327

Trump's an idiot and Biden has dementia. With such options does it really constitute a democracy? but anyway I don't buy into all the anti trump rhetoric and always thought he would win.

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by  RickStrauss  |  5th Nov 20, 1:34pm 1604536495

Sounds like Biden's stutter has been used by the opposition to portray him as senile. I've also seen others peddling rumours that Trump is senile and that is part of his inability to formulate sentences.

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by  fat pat  |  6th Nov 20, 1:21am 1604578906

Yeah but he's 77 years old. It's kind of ridiculous having someone that age running a superpower. Everyone gets age related dementia as they get older. Biden's quite articulate though and I wouldn't be surprised if he was 50 IQ points higher than Trump.

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by  realterms  |  6th Nov 20, 9:44am 1604609058

Xi will be at least that old before he bows out. Seems to be a trend of sorts.

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by  xingmowang  |  4th Nov 20, 1:44pm 1604450651

With a so called democratic system, American people end up with choosing only between a lunatic and a narcissist.

There got be a better political system to put the right person in charge of a country.

I am so glad the the Chinese people are now having the right leader.

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by  Chairman Moa  |  4th Nov 20, 1:54pm 1604451240

Not for the people of Taiwan

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by  Kotare  |  4th Nov 20, 7:40pm 1604472055

The Tibetans and Uyghurs may also have a different view.

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by  Masher  |  4th Nov 20, 1:54pm 1604451280

At least they get a choice mate...

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by  xingmowang  |  4th Nov 20, 2:03pm 1604451797

haha ..

a choice between two nuts?

that should not be called a choice but a dilemma.

a political system results in dilemmas very 3 to 4 years. I'd call it a really bad system .

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by  BadRobot  |  4th Nov 20, 2:53pm 1604454831

and China has the choice of Pooh Bear.

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by  Mrs The Point  |  4th Nov 20, 3:28pm 1604456934

Presitator for Life. Good luck with that.

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by  Pusheen  |  4th Nov 20, 5:19pm 1604463576

Same like NZ too Xing, we glad that majority of Kiwis choose the right leader. Now, it's up to you now to realise that NZ third largest ethnicity/Asians is actually being ignored by the current newly appointed govt. - check out their policies, ministerial pos etc., everything is about the second largest (Maori), fourth largest (Pasifica) & other minority inclusions.. Asians, ASEAN.. tough luck. Despite your rhetoric about OZ, what you missed is that.. OZ is actually open more towards Asians, ASEAN as compare to NZ. Times to ponder.

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by  Kauri  |  4th Nov 20, 6:54pm 1604469266

It shouldn’t be about ethnic group vs ethnic group, but only about the contest of ideas. If we go down the path of pandering to different groups based on their immutable characteristics we as a nation are stuffed. Although in saying that, in NZ we have a treaty where Maori and the Crown are meant to be equal partners, however clearly that isn’t the case hence work must be done to rectify that situation without sowing seeds of further division.

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by  peter.may  |  5th Nov 20, 8:58am 1604519914

When a cabinet is selected - should we aim for diversity or competence? Jacinda seems to have chosen diversity of a sort - not so sure about competence

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by  redcows1  |  5th Nov 20, 9:21am 1604521307

What if diversity is competence or alternatively uniformity leads to incompetence/stagnation and echo chambers.

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by  guwop  |  4th Nov 20, 11:34pm 1604486082

@Pusheen +1 for telling the truth.

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by  NZChinese  |  4th Nov 20, 7:44pm 1604472265

Winnie the pooh is the wrong guy

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by  lastredact  |  5th Nov 20, 3:46pm 1604544389

"I am so glad the the Chinese people are now having the right leader."

Because we all know what Mao Zedong did to destroy China's culture and economy, from which it's been trying to recover from in the ensuing decades.

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by  Chairman Moa  |  4th Nov 20, 1:45pm 1604450714

Only they could have someone wonderful and gentle like our Cindy.
Count ourselves lucky!

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by  Andrewj  |  4th Nov 20, 1:55pm 1604451336

She's Blairlite

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by  Fritz  |  4th Nov 20, 2:18pm 1604452687

Good comparison.

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by  Uncle Bulgaria  |  4th Nov 20, 5:03pm 1604462614

Mmmm. Blair actually very effective domestically. It was the abroad stuff that went wrong.

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by  Noncents  |  5th Nov 20, 7:00am 1604512813

Yes, ironically the complete opposite.

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by  Zachary Smith  |  4th Nov 20, 1:53pm 1604451183

I can't believe it has been four years since we were last here on the live election results comment thread. Time flies by.

Let's hope it is as exciting as last time.

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by  Foxglove.  |  4th Nov 20, 2:24pm 1604453092

Well if Biden carries it, but only narrowly, the after match function likely to be even more exciting and the inauguration next year an outright spectacle. Yep much entertainment still to come, non fiction beats fiction any day.

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by  Hamish  |  4th Nov 20, 1:58pm 1604451508

I can't believe it's been over 4 years since Brexit. Nearly there...

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by  ShoreThing  |  4th Nov 20, 3:42pm 1604457753

@frazz - I haven't forgotten our wager. Hope you've got my Budweiser nice and cold!

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by  JimboJones  |  4th Nov 20, 4:06pm 1604459176

Well you wouldn't want to be able to taste it...

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by  frazz  |  4th Nov 20, 9:08pm 1604477294

Bloody hell thats right..yes its a nail biter

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by  frazz  |  4th Nov 20, 9:33pm 1604478823

Hope you got my Parrotdog XPA on ice @shorething

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by  frazz  |  5th Nov 20, 11:51am 1604530294

@shorething - Can you ship to Plamy North Shorething? Or I can pick up direct from the Brewery in Wellington - shall I send you the invoice?

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by  Fangdangle  |  4th Nov 20, 4:38pm 1604461092

Here we go, the Democrats will start riots.

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by  Fritz  |  4th Nov 20, 4:20pm 1604460014

Trump's gonna win.

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by  WhiskeyJack  |  4th Nov 20, 4:30pm 1604460645

Bang on 4.20

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by  CourtJester  |  4th Nov 20, 6:13pm 1604466788

What 4.20? Referendum failed, there's no such thing as 4.20 now!

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by  Fangdangle  |  4th Nov 20, 5:28pm 1604464129

The real story is after four years of relentless attacks against Trump people are not believeing what the press is telling them.

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by  Fritz  |  4th Nov 20, 4:39pm 1604461189

I am centre left but even I will admit that the likes of The Guardian and CNN have been seriously unbalanced.

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by  Fangdangle  |  4th Nov 20, 4:43pm 1604461390

The large majority of NZ press is just as bad.

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by  dcnbwz  |  4th Nov 20, 5:49pm 1604465385

Really? Could you point to something that isn't fact?

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by  CourtJester  |  4th Nov 20, 6:14pm 1604466895

Right? The "problem" is that facts nowadays tend to be very biased against republicans. But apparently the majority of American people prefer the alternate reality of Fox News.

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by  blobbles  |  4th Nov 20, 5:07pm 1604462862

Am calling it - looks like Trump has won, based on electoral college votes per state. Significantly ahead in both Florida and Texas, both with lots of electoral college votes.

Biden is likely to win the popular vote by a landslide, once the populous West Coast states come online.

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by  blobbles  |  5th Nov 20, 7:20am 1604514037

I could be totally wrong here, didn't realise postal and early votes were being counted last in some states... Go Biden?

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by  WellingtonInvestor  |  5th Nov 20, 2:21pm 1604539275

This post has dated fast.

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by  blobbles  |  5th Nov 20, 4:26pm 1604546772

I can't remember the last time I was so happy about being wrong!

Go those mail in votes!

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by  Rosenstein  |  4th Nov 20, 5:09pm 1604462982

In modern US polls are way off because most conservative thinking people don't trust syndicated media, and with good reason.

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by  Chairman Moa  |  4th Nov 20, 5:17pm 1604463459

Kim Dotcom news out today. he's hoping it will be Biden

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by  Pusheen  |  4th Nov 20, 5:29pm 1604464165

Kim's major sin is that..kinda stealing/not contribute tax./pay the original contributors in the US, off course utilizing sovereign nation that has no modern consciousness about the US copyright laws, whilst also promoted his business as a 'facilitator provider' not getting involve to what is being done in term of digital transactions inside their service. But hey, after 9/11? everything change isn't it? suddenly the facilitators cannot turn blind eyes (off course from time to time it's still being done, on/off by google, facebook etc.) - Though he can still use (if still got any last significant remaining asset) to operate the same scheme... but just not from planet earth.. my advise to host the service from... the moon?)

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by  solardb  |  4th Nov 20, 5:25pm 1604463905

Its unclear wether postal votes have been included. They are expected to favour Biden by a large margin.

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by  dilmun  |  4th Nov 20, 5:33pm 1604464439

Pennsylvania stopped counting postal votes for the night. Lots of those there and expected to favour Biden, but Trump so far ahead they probably won't matter. Even less likely to change results anywhere else.

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by  solardb  |  4th Nov 20, 5:40pm 1604464857

I doubt Trump will win PA by the current margin. It will come down to 2 - 3 % either way. Not a single poll has had him anywhere near that far ahead.

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by  ShoreThing  |  4th Nov 20, 5:33pm 1604464399

They are being counted simultaneous with the in-person votes, however postal votes will continue to be counted for a period of time (couple of days, varies by state) if they are postmarked before the election.

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by  MortgageBelt  |  4th Nov 20, 5:26pm 1604463977

It’s a Trump win

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by  Masher  |  4th Nov 20, 5:28pm 1604464100

I'm interested to see what happens with the Senate, especially with gold bug and crypto advocate Judy Shelter nominated for the Federal Reserve.

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by  solardb  |  4th Nov 20, 5:37pm 1604464674

What is clear is that the USA remains divided. Apart from the few swing states, the Red / Blue divide continues, and appears to have widened.

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by  NZChinese  |  4th Nov 20, 7:36pm 1604471786

Chairman Xi is worried

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by  blobbles  |  4th Nov 20, 10:26pm 1604481967

Why? The US has allowed the South China sea issue to be all but won by the Chinese. Chinese economy is still growing strongly while the US economy has bombed because Trump let COVID get out of control, with it still raging and no end in sight. While it is commendable that Trump has made a blanket statement of not starting foreign wars while in power, China (and Russia in Syria) has used that as carte blanche to do whatever they want. Hell, this term they may take Taiwan if Trump makes the same blanket statements. While the US suffers under division (class/race/politics), China is quickly becoming the worlds largest economy and pushing its economy up the value chain, virtually unopposed. They now have some of the best tech in the world, leapfrogging the west in digital payments/AI/blockchain/crypto currency and many other high value industries. Meanwhile Trump is running an estimated $3.3 trillion deficit. Sure this might not matter while the USD is a reserve currency, but the more they print, the more that is threatened.

So as far as I can see, China is winning economically and geo politically with Trump in charge.

When I talk to Chinese people they tell me that they see Trump as hilarious and basically a double agent for China. You only need to look at the economic situation of both countries to see that Xi is not worried, Xi will be laughing and rubbing his hands together.

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by  lowercase capitalist  |  4th Nov 20, 7:36pm 1604471792

The more I read about the US electoral system the less I understand. Cant they just count the votes and then let Winnie decide like a proper, functioning democracy?

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by  JimboJones  |  4th Nov 20, 9:10pm 1604477424

Can’t stop laughing

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by  JimboJones  |  4th Nov 20, 9:13pm 1604477616

There has to be a civil war there soon. Why would the normal parts of America allow their president to be determined by people with the IQ of a pencil who make up less than 50% of the vote.

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by  Believer1980  |  4th Nov 20, 9:23pm 1604478184

Wow, the arrogance. US is offered a choice between a turd sandwich and a douchebag, not between mahatma Gandhi and Hitler. Come down of your high horses Jimbo.

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by  JimboJones  |  4th Nov 20, 9:38pm 1604479091

let’s say the whole North Island voted for the turd sandwich, and the whole South Island voted for the douchebag, and this happened time and time again; do you think we might get a bit sick of each other?

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by  Believer1980  |  4th Nov 20, 9:47pm 1604479630

How do you even compare NZ with the USA? very different countries. NZ is truly a small country, USA is effectively a confederation of many countries who have been in war not too long ago. Their political system reflects that history. As the above comment shows, in NZ most of the times very small parties, with very small percentage of votes, get to chose who will govern. Not the majority vote. That does not mean anyone is stupid though. And you already have gaps in NZ too. between Maori and the Europeans, Between urbans and counties, between old and young etc.
I personally consider being cheerleaders of political parties very stupid. They are here to serve us, it is not the other way around. But many people in democratic countries seem to think their preferred party is like the sport team they support. It is not only in US but everywhere. US is just a big stupid show

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by  JimboJones  |  4th Nov 20, 10:00pm 1604480450

I’m not being a cheerleader, I couldn’t care less who wins. All I’m saying is that if you lived in say California, your state produced a huge proportion of the countries GDP, and yet you effectively had no say whatsoever on who led the country, wouldn’t you be annoyed? Compared to NZ where of the last 8 elections I can remember, the popular vote decided 7 and Winston chose one although if you add the total vote I think the left may have won.

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by  lastredact  |  5th Nov 20, 3:47pm 1604544468

I doubt the average American is motivated enough to start a civil war. Thus there won't be one.

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by  realterms  |  4th Nov 20, 9:20pm 1604478023

Honestly wtf with trump trying to stop the count with legal challenges. He's almost certainly going to win anyway, and what an example of how he's interested in nothing beyond himself.

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by  Fritz  |  4th Nov 20, 9:59pm 1604480358

He's a really disgusting human being.
Say all you like about the Bush's - and I detested them - at least they had some dignity and respect.

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by  JimboJones  |  4th Nov 20, 9:45pm 1604479535

You have to wonder how it can be called a democracy. In most states you may as well not bother voting because your state never determines the outcome. Effectively a tiny percentage of the population will choose the winner.

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by  Teddy  |  4th Nov 20, 10:03pm 1604480592

Kiwilad was right, -20% decline on the USA market tomorrow??? ;)

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by  refactornz  |  5th Nov 20, 7:38am 1604515097

It looks like you made a typo with that negative sign

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by  Rosenstein  |  4th Nov 20, 10:03pm 1604480634

The narcissist seems like he'll take it unless China's dementia patient can 'find' a few more ballots tonight

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by  PocketAces  |  5th Nov 20, 6:45am 1604511909

Going to be a few words from the comments section here eaten very soon. I wonder what the pro Trumpers think about what he had to say last night about stopping vote counting. Did that give you even more confidence in the grifter.

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by  realterms  |  5th Nov 20, 8:13am 1604517203

Somehow I doubt it. At this point, to be pro Trump requires that you have found a way, somehow, to look past the fact that he is morally bankrupt.

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by  GV 27  |  5th Nov 20, 8:22am 1604517729

Not that I necessarily disagree with the sentiment about Trump, but given the Democrats' conduct during their primaries (again) and now pollsters with platforms who predicted likely-Biden in states Trump won outright and fed into a media narrative that's determined to ignore the existence of a significant number of Americans in pursuing their own personal grudges against the President, I can't see how America ends up being any less corrupt, regardless of who actually wins.

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by  lesnakey  |  5th Nov 20, 8:33am 1604518413

Yes the number of "Trump wins" pronouncements here should be embarrassing.

Now for the proto-Fascist's legal team to start the disenfranchisement process.

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by  paashaas  |  5th Nov 20, 8:00pm 1604559604

"Yes the number of "Trump wins" pronouncements here should be embarrassing."

I trust you found the number of "Biden/Dems win by a landslide" pronouncements in the media coming into the election equally embarrassing ?

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by  solardb  |  5th Nov 20, 9:00am 1604520053

The rural - urban divide is even bigger than the Blue state/ red state divide . Click on any state and see the difference between counties. Urban counties go blue , rural heavily red. This is why Trump is ahead early on , the rural seats report earlier , the big cities take time but tend to lean Democrat, even in Red states.
Trump won Florida because he got traction in Miami, as well as his rural base.
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-…

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by  Fangdangle  |  5th Nov 20, 9:37am 1604522253

Polling booth fraud news is starting coming out now.
https://youtu.be/OM4uF0AQig4

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by  realterms  |  5th Nov 20, 10:49am 1604526556

Go away. We don't need or want people who joined yesterday posting this twaddle.

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by  Fangdangle  |  5th Nov 20, 11:07am 1604527644

That is right, you must protect the 'socialist' agender at whatever cost!

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by  dollar_bill  |  5th Nov 20, 11:15am 1604528137

Just waiting on Nevada and it's a done deal

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by  Fangdangle  |  5th Nov 20, 12:00pm 1604530848

Come on mate, we all know this is going to go on for months. And the longer it continues the further the US sinks into higher CV19 infections and economic uncertainty.

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by  PocketAces  |  5th Nov 20, 12:28pm 1604532510

Anyone seen OreoContrarian since it started to become clear Trump is a goner?

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by  paashaas  |  5th Nov 20, 4:08pm 1604545736

If you do not like posts contradicting your narrative , perhaps you would be more comfortable elsewhere ?

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by  realterms  |  5th Nov 20, 5:25pm 1604550316

Reasoned opinions? Bring it on. Plenty of different views here, and that's part of what makes it so valuable. Out and out trolling? Yeah, nah.

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by  paashaas  |  5th Nov 20, 7:56pm 1604559396

is "go away" a reasoned opinion ?

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by  the Joneses  |  5th Nov 20, 11:38am 1604529524

Fox news says the two random ladies on the youtube video are wrong:

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/sharpies-can-be-used-on-voting-ballot…

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by  Dale Smith  |  5th Nov 20, 11:37am 1604529460

H L Mencken quote 1920's:

“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

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by  Solve_it  |  5th Nov 20, 9:46pm 1604565991

Love this

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by  mvgsmf  |  5th Nov 20, 12:13pm 1604531599

and Joe will be another dead duck president as the Republican held senate block everything... god bless 'merica

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by  solardb  |  5th Nov 20, 12:51pm 1604533887

Biggest thing going for Biden is his ability to work across the aisle. Won't be plain sailing but Ithink everyone on both sides is sick of the paristan roadblocks . .

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by  GV 27  |  5th Nov 20, 1:13pm 1604535211

Don't think he's as much of an egotist as Trump - it won't be my way or the highway with Biden.

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by  realterms  |  5th Nov 20, 1:24pm 1604535863

For good or for bad, he spent yonks in the senate and knows many there.

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by  mvgsmf  |  5th Nov 20, 2:08pm 1604538492

Yes, don't get me wrong - I don't want to see more insane partisan politics. It would be good to a more constructive US Govt....Im not a USA flag waver but want to see them strong and unified as China is the mob that scares me...

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by  WellingtonInvestor  |  5th Nov 20, 2:22pm 1604539324

Looks like Biden will now win.

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