US$
Roger J Kerr says the erratic Trump directly interfering in the workings of the independent Federal Reserve was just another reason for foreign investors to further reduce their confidence in the US Government and the US economy
30th Jun 25, 8:13am
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Roger J Kerr says the erratic Trump directly interfering in the workings of the independent Federal Reserve was just another reason for foreign investors to further reduce their confidence in the US Government and the US economy
After recovering from a dip on tariff concerns, the S&P500 closed at a record high. US core PCE deflator benign but above expectations. Real consumption soft. OPEC+ is considering a further increase in supply
30th Jun 25, 7:43am
After recovering from a dip on tariff concerns, the S&P500 closed at a record high. US core PCE deflator benign but above expectations. Real consumption soft. OPEC+ is considering a further increase in supply
US rates lower, with the possible appointment of a "low-rates" guy to the US Fed just another reason to sell the USD. USD indices fall to fresh multi-year lows. But equity markets probe record highs
27th Jun 25, 7:46am
US rates lower, with the possible appointment of a "low-rates" guy to the US Fed just another reason to sell the USD. USD indices fall to fresh multi-year lows. But equity markets probe record highs
Calm market conditions overnight. EUR and GBP push up to fresh 2025 highs; NZD solidifies recovery above 60 USc. A full 25bps rate cut now priced for the US Fed by September
26th Jun 25, 7:43am
Calm market conditions overnight. EUR and GBP push up to fresh 2025 highs; NZD solidifies recovery above 60 USc. A full 25bps rate cut now priced for the US Fed by September
Middle East ceasefire supports risk sensitive assets. Oil prices plunge. Fed Chair Powell reiterates FOMC messaging. US treasuries rally on weak confidence data and lower oil prices
25th Jun 25, 7:51am
Middle East ceasefire supports risk sensitive assets. Oil prices plunge. Fed Chair Powell reiterates FOMC messaging. US treasuries rally on weak confidence data and lower oil prices
Iran orchestrates a missile strike on a US base in Qatar; but well-telegraphed and seen more as symbolic than an escalation in the conflict. Market relieved that oil infrastructure not targeted. Risk assets recover strongly
24th Jun 25, 7:42am
Iran orchestrates a missile strike on a US base in Qatar; but well-telegraphed and seen more as symbolic than an escalation in the conflict. Market relieved that oil infrastructure not targeted. Risk assets recover strongly
Roger J Kerr suggests the US Fed should be providing alternative scenarios to the markets, with likely monetary responses to each scenario
23rd Jun 25, 8:18am
Roger J Kerr suggests the US Fed should be providing alternative scenarios to the markets, with likely monetary responses to each scenario
Further escalation in Middle East conflict to weigh on investor risk appetite and underpin oil prices. Fed Governor Waller said the central bank could cut rates as soon as July highlighting the split amongst the FOMC
23rd Jun 25, 7:24am
Further escalation in Middle East conflict to weigh on investor risk appetite and underpin oil prices. Fed Governor Waller said the central bank could cut rates as soon as July highlighting the split amongst the FOMC
US Federal Reserve leaves rates on hold as expected. FOMC median forecast still shows 50bp of rate cuts this year. Limited market reaction. Treasury yields remain modestly lower and currency markets stable
19th Jun 25, 7:49am
US Federal Reserve leaves rates on hold as expected. FOMC median forecast still shows 50bp of rate cuts this year. Limited market reaction. Treasury yields remain modestly lower and currency markets stable
Investors adopt a cautious stance as the US becomes more involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. US data weaker than expected. Global equities weaker, US Treasuries lower and USD broadly stronger
18th Jun 25, 7:55am
Investors adopt a cautious stance as the US becomes more involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. US data weaker than expected. Global equities weaker, US Treasuries lower and USD broadly stronger
Risk assets recover as Israel dominates battle against Iran; no sign of conflict spreading to elsewhere in the Middle East and Iran seeks end to hostilities. Global equities stronger, US Treasury yields higher and oil prices lower
17th Jun 25, 7:52am
Risk assets recover as Israel dominates battle against Iran; no sign of conflict spreading to elsewhere in the Middle East and Iran seeks end to hostilities. Global equities stronger, US Treasury yields higher and oil prices lower
Roger J Kerr says the lack of buying interest in the US dollar on the Middle East shock underscores just how much the attitude and sentiment of investors has changed over the last six months since Trump came to power and upended the world order
16th Jun 25, 7:59am
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Roger J Kerr says the lack of buying interest in the US dollar on the Middle East shock underscores just how much the attitude and sentiment of investors has changed over the last six months since Trump came to power and upended the world order
Rise in investor risk aversion amid a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. Oil prices surge. Brent crude futures close near US$75 per barrel. Global equities declined. US treasuries reversed an earlier rally and closed higher in yield
16th Jun 25, 7:24am
Rise in investor risk aversion amid a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. Oil prices surge. Brent crude futures close near US$75 per barrel. Global equities declined. US treasuries reversed an earlier rally and closed higher in yield
Benign US inflation data and a solid 30-year auction supported a rally in US treasuries. The US dollar remained under pressure with the dollar index falling below the April low
13th Jun 25, 7:50am
Benign US inflation data and a solid 30-year auction supported a rally in US treasuries. The US dollar remained under pressure with the dollar index falling below the April low
Weaker US inflation data drive down US rates. USD also weaker, but NZD and AUD see no net benefit after US-China trade talks end with parties just agreeing to keep the previous agreement, with no further progress
12th Jun 25, 7:57am
Weaker US inflation data drive down US rates. USD also weaker, but NZD and AUD see no net benefit after US-China trade talks end with parties just agreeing to keep the previous agreement, with no further progress