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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; no retail rate changes, truckometer positive, Dunedin seeks $110 mln, women voting as a block, swaps mixed, NZD firms, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; no retail rate changes, truckometer positive, Dunedin seeks $110 mln, women voting as a block, swaps mixed, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

No changes to report today.

None here today either.

ANZ's monitoring of NZTA traffic data for March was out today in their Truckometer series, and recorded good rises. The Light Traffic Index rose +1.7% in March, while the Heavy Traffic rose 2.8% m/m. Both traffic indexes will be very volatile in the near term due to COVID disruptions. Heavy traffic (trucks and buses) primarily reflects the movement of goods, while light traffic is all about the movement of people. ANZ is cautioning to not read too much into this current data improvement.

Two NZX listed companies issued positive customer announcements today, Pacific Edge (PEB), and EROAD (ERD).

Dunedin City Council is seeking up to $110 mln of seven year bonds, hoping to get this funding at swap + 0.5%. That would make the interest cost 1.93% pa. (Dunedin City Council is the only council of substantial size that does not currently borrow through LGFA.)

In new polling analysis out today, RoyMorgan notes that the Labour Party is the party of women, being the only party with more women's support than men. The separation is substantial - 54:36 women:men. Even the Greens have men-dominated support - 9½:14½ which is very similar to the Act skew 8½:14. Even National's men-skew isn't as dominant - 20½ :25½. In this latest poll, Act is the only party to get a polling boost in March.

In a related poll, RoyMorgan reports the the Government Confidence Rating has fallen sharply. It peaked at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 at an index level of 163 and has fallen steadily since, now at 135.5 which is where it was before the pandemic hit.

In China, their consumer inflation rate was reported for March a few minutes ago, and it shows not sign of resurgence there for households. Food prices are falling because pork prices have retreated sharply after their ASF-boosted gains. But interestingly, lamb prices are holding, retaining an +8% year-on-year rise whereas beef prices are retreating along with pork. Milk was one of the few food prices to rise in March. But factory prices are rising fast.

In Australia, their central bank has released is latest Financial Stability Review. It is focused on risks from their residential property boom, but says banks could cope with any shock.

Gold is trading in Australia, and soon in Asian markets. After moving up in New York to US$1756/oz in earlier trading (and similar in London), it has slipped slightly to be now at US$1753/oz.

The S&P500 ended the Wall Street session earlier today up +0.4%. In Tokyo, they are also up +0.4% in opening trade today while Hong Kong is down -0.7% in early trade, with Shanghai down a similar amount. Meanwhile the ASX200 is down -0.3% in early afternoon trade but headed for a +2.3% weekly rise. The NZX50 Capital Index is down -0.1% in late trade and heading for a weekly +1.0%.

We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are significant movements today, we will note them here later when we get the data. They are probably little-changed. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 0.32%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +2 bps from this time yesterday at 1.70%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 3.24%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -5 bps at 1.71% and the level as the earlier RBNZ fixing at 1.71% (-4 bps). The US Govt ten year has has fallen -3 bps to 1.64%.

The Kiwi dollar has recovered marginally and is now at 70.5 USc. On the cross rates we are a little firmer at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we similarly firmer at 59.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 72.8 although it has been higher earlier in the day.

Bitcoin is up almost +3.0% today from where we were this time yesterday, now at US$57,996. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

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National @ 23% party vote.


Yes a lot of the moaning and outrage by some politicians and media commentators is not mirrored in the party ratings. Collins there with Bridges still hanging around like a bad smell cant continue long term either. Act and the Greens loving it at the moment. The polls suggest many kiwis still support the governments recent policies and patience with covid.

53% of Canadians said they are $200 or less away from not being able to meet all of their monthly bills and debt obligations. All this during an epic asset bubble. Seems to be a common element across the Anglosphere.

I used to live in Papua New Guinea - I'd say 90% of citizens were $2 or less from meeting their bills and debt obligations.

Not great. Sad in fact. However, they probably hadn't borrowed $800,000 or more for their first home.

I used to live in Papua New Guinea - I'd say 90% of citizens were $2 or less from meeting their bills and debt obligations.

So what's the takeaway here? That at least Canada is not PNG? I think when half the population of a developing country is $200 away from insolvency is quite a big deal.

Interesting that the mean / median wealth of Canadian individuals is almost exactly the same as that of Japan. The big difference is that Canada has an uber property bubble at the same time that the Japanese property bubble has been shrinking. The fact that 50% of Canucks are living on the edge suggests that the wealth effect seems to failing.

you mention insolvency.....

how many NZ landlords would be insolvent if required to pay p&i loans?

how many landlords are insolvent now already with these tax changes?

The 1st world problems abound. People fretting about bitcoin carbon footprint constructs - when 3 billion people would just like some electricity...

I see the TDC have been given a firm no by Grant Robertson over further funding for the Waimea dam.
More pop corn please.

Is truckometer based on previous month increase for this year or same month last year as if it is based on last year the figures are not so good as we were in lockdown and it should be a massive jump over March 2020.

Says m/m ... month on month change which in itself highlights an issue that March has 4.57 weeks vs 4 weeks Feb. Maybe that is adjusted for

What happened on Friday. Well there was a march on parliament by school children and adult and athletic supporters. This orchestrated in sympathy and accord with the decision by our government to recently declare a climate emergency. Understandably the Green Party had quite some involvement to. So to both protestors and the Green Party, who were in the government at the time of the go ahead, please ask the question why then in such an emergency it is acceptable and desirable to build a completely new wide bodied jet airport on beautiful natural landscape in Central Otago. Yes march. Yes use the loud hailer but if to be sincere and credible, don’t put diabolically conflicting issues such as this in the too hard basket. Sincerely hope that has interrupted your yawning. Kids, are you still awake?

ps. Subsequent. As reported Stuff. The said protesters in Christchurch were right on to said issue and exactly so. I apologise accordingly and applaud all of them for both energy, compilation and direction. For the Christchurch Mayor though, the complete opposite. No surprise, given the hypocrisy, late, ie didn’t actually want to be there.

Journalists, are you awake too?

We haven't heard diddly-squat about the actual wealth being squandered (one-off fossil energy resource, other consumed/ejected resources, pollution) while we pile up digital representation of?

Stupidity. When you get down to it.

But some folk still call this nonsense 'good', 'improving', .......... sigh.

pdk. what can we do. As evidenced in this terrible Tarras airport venture, we have politicians and bureaucrats completely dishonouring the ideals that they broadcast. That is declare, at both national and local government level that there is a climate emergency, and then blithely squander the public purse and natural resources, in direct contradiction of said emergency. I am no longer young and I despair that this is beyond the aftermath of WW2 insecurity that I experienced. We have no one in government or their agencies that are either sincere or trustworthy.

Yes they all want more action, I'm picking as long as it doesn't affect them directly. I think when the rubber hits the road its going to be most unpalatable for the snowflake generation.

That's a bit harsh.

Preceeding generations have locked them out of the money scramble, and we will be handing them generations worth of climate change and fossil fuel dependance.

We need to encourage this behaviour, educate and train. Not put down. People who are a school now will be most affected by our past consumption. They are the ones who Will suffer the worst consequences and also whatever society changes are required to fix it.

Best approach we can take to solving climate change?

Raise a generation of kids who will have the collective awareness and skills to deal with this mess.

Interesting to see the number of mainstream media stories today that are morally outraged at a country ban due to high COVID case numbers.
Makes you realise the huge vested interests (corporate, higher Ed, retail etc) there are in this people/income stream.
Also the many stories of residents who seem to be free to just leave NZ, return to their country of origin for a few months and then return to NZ at free will - there has been a travel warning (obviously unenforced) from the NZ Govt for the last 14 months on all NZers leaving the country other than (recently) Australia.

Remember when Trump did this a year he was pilloried and labeled a blatant racist.

Others would call it prudent.

Yes, and in any case there was a ban on all travellers & NZers from all countries for several weeks in NZ this time last year.



Time for JA/Lab to test the water, put a blanket DTI and targeting CullenCGT for land/RE investor/speculators.
As promise of no CG was during last term with NZ1st, in the new term they're majority. JA can always temporary sidestep for another baby or wedding, put GR or others to admin the policy, so when return back from personal break, the popularity show can be kept intact.

Let’s say Act promise to reverse the PI tax changes and gets all the PI vote (assuming National cant risk doing that). Could Act overtake National?
National are in a very tricky predicament: do they side with the PIs knowing they can never get close to the ~40% needed if they do so, or do they lose the PI vote to Act but have a chance at a coalition? At the moment I think they are just preying that labour screw it up and hoping their PR machines like Hosking can make a comeback.

I think it will take some time. Younger generations are more likely not to vote right and older more Conservative voters are of course dying.

Either a major rebrand, complete new faces to shuffle through, or some popular movement needed.

Noting political movements do die out sometimes.

Therein lies a forthcoming conundrum for 2023 not only for National but the electorate in general. Firstly as/if Labour’s popularity continues to slide that would likely see Labour supporters defect to the Greens and then highly likely the next Labour government would be a coalition with Green mps in cabinet. Secondly, what has never been accurately revealed at the last election is just how many National voters switched to Labour precisely to stop that scenario, and if it was what made that much difference, would they have the stomach to do it again? Strange clouds already forming on the political horizon indeed.

I think the nat voters voting labour to keep the greens out was probably matched by labour voters voting green to make sure the greens got 5%.

So it would have ended up much of a muchness.