A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, retail spending up, truck activity firm, LGFA to issue a big bond, swaps stable, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report here either.

HARDSHIP RISING
Credit bureau Centrix says there's been a 10% increase in the number of households in hardship since the end of the Reserve Bank's mortgage deferral scheme

BACK TO 2019 LEVELS
Retail card spending rose to $6.0 bln (actual) in April, nearly the highest it has been this year, Stats NZ said today. And given April had both Easter and ANZAC Day in a 30 day month, it is relatively stronger than for March. Their electronic card transactions series covers all debit, credit, and charge card transactions with New Zealand-based merchants. The April level was +9.5% higher than for April 2019 (where a comparison with April 2020 makes no sense given it was the first month on the nationwide pandemic lockdown.

TRUCKING ALONG
ANZ's traffic analysis is getting quite noisy as year-ago comparatives and supply chain issues distort the usual ways to look at their data. but looking through all that, there’s no shortage of activity out there, and no shortage of logistics challenges as well. Changes in shipping and trucking patterns will create noise in the Heavy Traffic Index in particular, "but it’s nonetheless clear that the economy’s trucking along".

LGFA TACKS
The Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) is launching a fixed rate bond offer and cancelling its 12 May 2021 tender. The bond offer is for $300 million in unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate bonds with a maturity date of 15 May 2031 and with the ability to accept unlimited oversubscriptions at LGFA's discretion. As of 4pm, the LGFA said its bookbuild order was above $630 million within the indicative margin range of 0.35% to 0.38% per annum. That includes $100 million of bonds reserved for subscription by LGFA, and $105 million trading interest from the joint lead managers. Based on the indicative margin, the indicative issuance yield is 2.277% to 2.307% per annum. They are very popular, with more than $630 mln being bid so far in the book build process.

FEE WAIVER
Westpac NZ is making it easier for customers to send money to countries badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. From today, customers can send funds to India and Brazil via Westpac One online banking without incurring the usual $10 transfer fee.

"SLOW DOWN"
The Retirement Commissioner is advising the Government to back off the quick transition of the residency requirement to receive NZ Superannuation, taking it from 10 to 20 years. She claims it is unfair because those who it affects haven't had sufficient time to plan for the change and that they actually have limited options at age 55.

THE COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE INTENSIFIES
More big gains are being reported for base commodities, especially iron ore and copper. Both area at or near all-time high levels.

CHINA'S PRODUCER PRICES SOAR HIGHER
China's producer prices jumped again in April, up a fat +6.8% year-on-year and a big rise from the March rise of +4.4% pa. In the past, the flow-through to consumer prices wasn't that strong. But this time it is expected to be more direct. However, April consumer prices aren't yet showing that impact, with them up just +0.9% year-on-year. But watch out for the flow-on impact over the next few months.

ANOTHER GO AT THEM
China is still trying to hurt Australia over trade retaliation. Some Chinese LNG importers have apparently been told informally by Beijing to avoid buying Australian cargoes, posing a potential threat to Australia’s huge export trade.

GOLD MIXED
The gold price is up to US$1837/oz and up another +US$4 from this time yesterday. But is down -US$4 from the afternoon fix in London earlier today.

EQUITIES LOWER WORLDWIDE
The S&P500 ended a full -1.0% lower on Wall Street earlier today as the loss built through their trading succession. In Tokyo, they have opened an ugly -2.5% lower in early trade. In Hong Kong their open is down -2.2% and Shanghai has opened -0.9% lower. Meanwhile in Australia, they have shed -0.9% in their morning sessio. The NZX50 Capital Index is down -0.7% to complete the worldwide selloff.

SWAPS & BONDS MIXED
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are significant movements today, we will note them here later when we get the data. They are probably little-changed. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.38% and that is now its highest in more than a year. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +1 bp at 1.67%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed, down -1 bp at 3.17%. But the New Zealand Govt ten year is up +5 bps at 1.81% and still above the 1.78% in the earlier RBNZ fix (+5 bps). The US Govt ten year is unchanged at 1.59%.

NZ DOLLAR STILL STABLE
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed today at 72.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we little-changed at 59.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 74.1.

BITCOIN FIRM & VOLATILE
The bitcoin price is now at US$55,428 and down a sharp -5.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility however has remained very high, almost extreme at +/- 5.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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