Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news both benchmark interest rates and equity prices are on the move higher this morning.
Although all eyes are firmly on the Thursday (NZT) US Federal Reserve meeting, with some positive but nervous energy in anticipation, there have been some other releases worth noting.
US inflation expectations came in sharply higher at 4% in one year which is actually a series high for this survey which started in 2013. If you are older, poorer, or live in the economically booming South, your expectation of much higher prices ahead are even greater. The same survey shows labour market expectations improved, with unemployment and the probability of losing one’s job both reaching series lows. The actual May CPI came in at 5.0% so consumers don't see much moderating and certainly not in the way economists expect from the Fed.
In India, their May inflation surged +6.3% and above the upper band of their central bank's policy comfort zone. The rises in India were broad-based and driven by their recent lockdowns. But normal monsoons and an eventual, gradual easing of their lockdowns are expected to stabilise prices somewhat. A key aspect is food price inflation, which was up +5.2% year-on-year.
Japan has reported a good +16% rise in industrial production in April from the same month a year ago, but that is pandemic-distorted. Compared with April 2019, they are still -2.2% behind.
Canada's factory sales were also reported overnight, also for April, and they weren't flash with a -2.1% decline rate month-on-month. Year-on-year these are also quite distorted, but compared to April 2019 they were -1.8% lower, so nothing encouraging here.
The other interesting data was from China, where May inbound foreign direct investment continued its strong run, up by more than a third in a year.
Australia is expected to sign an in-principal "free trade deal" with the UK later today. While a lot of detail will have to be worked through, it will likely involve a timetable for more access for Aussie rural exports into the UK - if the UK concedes to Australia its use of hormones in livestock production.
Wall Street has opened the week lower with the S&P500 down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Overnight European markets closed mixed with most up +0.2%, except Frankfurt. Yesterday Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed for a public holiday, but Tokyo was trading and had a good day finishing up +0.7%. The ASX was also closed for a public holiday, but the NZX50 Capital Index traded and ended the day little-changed (+0.1%).
The UST 10yr yield starts today up +5 bps at 1.50%. The US 2-10 rate curve is now steeper at +134 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now steeper at +74 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is steeper as well at +149 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.49% and up +3 bps. The China Govt ten year bond is still at 3.15%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is still at 1.66%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1863/oz which is down -US$15 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are unchanged overnight at US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just on US$72.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today at 71.4 USc and inching back up overnight. Against the Australian dollar we are also firmish at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 73.2 and still near its two month low.
The bitcoin price is now at US$40,223 and up +7.6% from this time yesterday, and mainly on Elon Musk's references. Volatility in the past 24 hours is back as extreme at +/- 5.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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109 Comments
Market is positive on Fed announcement as knows that fed has to do what market dictate as now fed is a puppet.
Rightly pointed that markets now are run by institutions and not fundamentals.
https://www.ft.com/content/46450be2-99dd-43ec-a9f3-9cf3c60d72e1
The very reputation of fed as an institution is at stake.
The most frequent way that investors come to believe in impossible things is that they fail to impose “equilibrium.” They neglect to examine how output and securities come into existence, the arithmetic that dictates how they have to add up, and who ends up with what after each exchange. They imagine that what might be true for an individual investor or sector must also be true for the financial markets or the economy as a whole.
Discussions of economics and finance typically reflect little consideration or even understanding of the “stock-flow equilibrium” that necessarily relates various real economic outcomes – output, savings, investment, and government spending – with the issuance of various financial objects like Treasury debt, base money, and stock shares. Equilibrium is like conservation of mass – every purchase is also a sale; every security that’s created must be held by someone until it is retired; securities are created to memorialize obligations; output that’s not consumed has been saved; the shortfall of one sector must be the surplus of another. Once you insist on thinking in terms of equilibrium, it becomes obvious how many discussions in economics and finance are incoherent.
Notably, the lack of equilibrium thinking obscures a critical fact about investing: every security, once issued, must be held by someone until it is retired. As a result, the only thing that a security will ever provide to its investors, in aggregate, is the stream of actual cash flows that it delivers between the point that it is issued and the point that it is retired. The price changes called out by Mr. Market are not changes in aggregate wealth – they mainly provide varying opportunities for wealth transfer between one investor and another. There’s an increase in aggregate wealth only if there’s an increase in expected value-added output and deliverable cash flows. Otherwise, a change in the valuation of a given stream of cash flows merely reflects a change in the expected rate of return.Link
Whilst all that is true, the meta-market-model has changed, how do you value water when more come down the river all the time? You value it in relation to the volume of water moving in the river at any one time.
The point being that valuing the security becomes a matter of guessing the anticipated volume, there is no consideration to maturity and certainly none for interest as both are now largely immaterial.
IMO the Fed has been backed into a corner by the obsene stimulus.
Print $8T currency depreciates by 20% in one year, more money goes off shore as buying power of $ weakens. Then more money comes back into US bonds because what else do you do with your excess USDs
Fed should taper their bond buying program and start mentioning normalisation of the OCR. that will drive their dollar up a bit and peg back a bit of the inflationary pressure.
Alternative is to consign yourself to going down the gurgler
The US brings a tactical nuke to the front lines in the fight against climate change. Perhaps we could put one of these at Huntly instead of building a bike lane?
"Billionaire Bill Gates' advanced nuclear reactor company TerraPower have selected Wyoming to launch the first Natrium reactor project on the site of a retiring coal plant, the state's governor said on Wednesday."
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/utility-small-nuclear-reactor-f…
Anyone buying a Ford is not a mechanic or an engineer. They make the worst cars ever these days, you couldn't pay me to drive one. Totally disgusted at the crap they put out these days having worked on them and that was before I found out about all their automatic gearboxes failing on Fair Go.
Yep, the joke was on Landover- turning drivers into mechanics for 80 years.
On recall note.
USA: 2021 Ford 150 recall for steering failure (wheel locks, does not turn). And Tesla for brakes not bolted on correctly.
Scotty K:
https://youtu.be/E8wmcXFUyKA
Going on form he'd then turn & call you "either ill-informed or lying, or both".
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/06/controversy-over-signif…
Interesting here, because he is on the hook for what he said in the video.
With no where to go. The next day he rewrites/incorrectly transcribes the video and pretends the incorrect script is whats on the video (and blasts back).
- well played for of his supporters who will investigate the video?
Like I tell the kids, if you are dating someone like this don't.
Thwarted last election, The Greens are playing the long game Henry. The glittering prize of being in cabinet after the next election. Last election one co-leader couldn’t help but blurt this out before the ballot boxes were even stashed away. Very likely from 2023 it will be Labour/Greens full coalition. So if you think these current incursions by the Greens, only from the sidelines of course, are something well you ain’t seen nothing yet. Left field is pent up and pawing to rip through the gate. Heck Labour can’t even contain them now
Yep there is a not-nill chance of that actually being a thing. If they are elected GBH I will blame you for putting this out there. In a total idea vacuum any idea is a good idea.
On the upside productivity with a capital P will go up :) but the Hugs might not be something to look forward to so much.
Here is the full James Shaw clip
Ngati Hine FM
The longer the clip the worse Shaw's cover up looks.
If he is going to later recall what he said, he needs to check the video tape.
https://m.facebook.com/watch/?extid=CL-UNK-UNK-UNK-AN_GK0T-GK1C&v=50731…
The longer clip shows not discussion of topics other than SNA.
Shaw says the thing is
Councils have had 30 years
There are no common standards
And that the SNA national policy statement is not written yet, so Maori and others (SPF) don't know whats going to happen next.
Read the FB comments on NH FM. Great context!
Strangely the Reserve Bank of India is actually printing money despite the very high rate of inflation. They are doing this explicitly to allow government to borrow more as investors have stopped buying enough debt.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-17/global-investors-are…
Who is not printing the money...Inflation or no inflation.
Money printing has to continue to run the economy and reserve banks have no option but to come up with excuse and reasons to support their narrative - best one is that it is a temporary short term spike in inflation- as who has seen the future ( hard to argue and gets time) and also their definition of short term could be from a year to a decade or two :) can keep on shifting the goal post.
Market too goes along with reserve bank narrative for as long as reserve bank continue with generosity, it is better to see merit in their reasoning and let the show continues.
What is the exit strategy.
“if you are older, poorer ……….. your expectations of higher prices ahead are much greater.” That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. That’s where inflation impacts negatively mostly. Looking at our grocery items & similar essentials, already biting in NZ. What to do? Up interest rates as always. Carnage thence on the mortgage field of battle?
.... will Jacinda Ardern offer a formal apology to Toyota for falsely claiming yesterday that they were about to offer a range of EV utes to NZ farmers ... and that her government was in discussions with them ...
.
Toyota says " WTF ! " ... ( in Japanese , of course )
The new Ranger electric Ute is imminent, 0-100 in 4 secs! And I’ll get $8500 from Mr Shaw towards it! On the subject of Toyota utes, the emission figure for a new Hilux is 204g according to Toyota, not Waka Kotahi’s 224g. That would give Hilux buyers a $1500 ‘fine’, not a $3000 one.
1. Whats your point about speed?
NZTA has also stated that making speeds safer is just one part of its approach, but something it can do quickly. To me, that is just NZTA’s way of saying it’s not getting enough funding to do the remedial work required to make the road safer.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/124975791/lower-speed-limit…
2. Whats you point about speed?
About the utes, people who use utes for business don't have the time to wait for the charge up (or wait in line to then wait for the charge up).
If Industry 4.0 teaches anything, its you clear out non productive time, you concentrate on value add activities.
Thats how our friends in Germany appear to make magic.
You make interesting points Henry, but you're falling for some spin from NZTA. NZ as a country has been sold short by the current NZTA, and multitudes of Governments on our transport infrastructure. The most unsafe thing about road transport today is the quality of our roads. Fundamentally they are crap! For years Governments have avoided putting four lane plus highways in between major towns and cities, and today our main roads do not even meet the standard of secondary roads in Europe. Add to this we have different speed limits for different types of vehicles which creates chaos on these roads. add into that the few who want to drive slow on the open road (I ran up against one doing 70 on an open road this morning, with no where to pass).
In a clean, green future, high quality roads will be a must, unless travel will be banned (dis-invent the wheel?). So some serious remedial work is needed - YESTERDAY!
You provide the answer. Make the roads safer by lowering the speed limit. That saves a great deal of maintenance cost then. Already happened. Nelson to Picton for example. NZ will soon be down to 80 kph maximum anywhere. That means those type of drivers you have just encountered, will get along out of compulsive habit at about 60kph
If we'd told them they would likely have made plans to have vehicles available in this market to meet those needs. Ford already make hybrid and will shortly make EV pickups but only in LHD, if we had communicated our plan a couple of years ago they could have retooled their factory during the last product cycle change to make an RHD variant also. Now it will likely take a couple more years and slow EV progress because we where not clear with manufacturers.
You have to laugh about this key-stone cops government, announcing the EV rebates and ICE fees a few days out from the biggest car sale period of the year.
No wonder Toyota gave the hugger-in-chief a back-hand, they will probably loose a few hundred thousand in sales at the field days this year.
Even if they knew what to do they wouldn’t know how to do it. Hence, as Andrea Vance explained in Stuff, the ministers are now surrounded, up to their necks, by head nodders and pen pushers (old fashioned lingo for advisors & consultants) on a scale never before even imagined by any other government, and as per Northcote Parkinson, work just creates itself relatively to the number present, and the more it increases, the less the productivity and the greater the confusion. Not helped much either by a prime minister who too often appears to be more interested in being an international celebrity, and not just a prime minister.
From her output, Vance is as ignorant as the Politicians.
Both the media and our elected leadership, reflect our social narrative. The trouble is, it was/is false. Politicians can be excused; they have to appeal to those steeped in the narrative. The media have no such excuse; they could/should be peddling something closer to fact.
At least she read what I sent her - more, I suspect, than most do. But I haven't seen any change in her output.
The impact of announcing the new fees and rebates this close is two fold.
Firstly those who were thinking about buying will be trying to buy this week at the Field Days due to the discounting that occurs. There is likely to be less discount now available as there will over-subscription to existing stock as tradies try to buy before the Fee is imposed. So potential purchasers will be worse off.
Secondly, after the Field Days have passed with their minimal discounts, sales for utes will likely tail off as Tradies make do with existing stock waiting for EV Utes to arrive (https://www.driven.co.nz/news/nz-s-first-ev-ute-fully-electric-ldv-t60-…) and receive the healthy 8k discount on top of the additional price drop that increased volumes will allow. Existing ute suppliers will experience less sales and make less money and so be worse off.
I was pleased my quick google search confirms NZ does not play in this sandpit; (relatively) hormone free here.
https://www.mpi.govt.nz/animals/growth-hormones/using-hormonal-growth-p…
"The use of HGPs is strictly controlled to protect the New Zealand international meat trade. In many markets, such as the USA and Australia, HGPs are considered safe and are used extensively. However, in China, the European Union (EU), and other countries, HGPs are perceived as unnatural additives and are banned."
"mainly on Elon Musk's references" Nothing to do with Microstrategy now buying $500M worth of BTC over the next few days? El Salvadore declaring it legal tender with local geothermal mining starting? Iran and India looking to legalize. US inflation at near record highs. Paul Tuder Jones wanting to go with 5%. State Street starting a crypto trading desk.
Don't get me wrong, Elon can move markets with his tweets - but we were already in recover mode before that.
I’m not so sure. I still think it’ll dip into the high $20k before it turns around. We had a good run over the past 24 hours but I’m cautious still. I’ve a buy order at $28.9k that I’m not moving.
If I’m wrong I’ll just put that into alts or hold it for the next opportunity. I doubled my (small) BTC position already during this dip so I’m pretty pleased regardless of whether I’m right or wrong on BTC going lower in the very short term.
Elon tweeted when it was 38k already, this is fake news. His reputation in the BTC space is in tatters.
To add to your point lonewolf, the Taproot soft fork just gained consensus which will mean the biggest upgrade to the BTC network in 4 years. That's a big deal, as it was approved with 100% of blocks signalling for the upgrade. Much more likely to be this and the points you listed as to why BTC is pumping again.
plus If that's not bullish enough, investing legend Paul Tudor Jones was on CNBC this morning:
“Bitcoin is math...I like the idea of investing in something that’s reliable, consistent, honest, and a hundred percent certain...I recommend at least 5% allocation to Bitcoin.”
Yeah well at 5% most people could afford to loose the lot. Lets be honest here for a minute, we can look up what a house is worth from multiple sources and are happy to tell you what their house is worth, but pretty much nobody discloses how much dollars in Bitcoin they own. My guess would be a few thousand max for the typical holder so if it goes tits up it really is not the end of the world. Bitcoin is just a hedge on it becoming the worlds global reserve currency, as soon as its crystal clear it will never make it then its dead. People live in hope that their $1000 Bitcoin will turn into $1Mil. Bitcoin was perfect in its execution right down to no one person being directly accredited for creating it. No better Ponzi exists, it was perfect.
https://www.swanbitcoin.com/why-bitcoin-is-not-a-ponzi-scheme-point-by-…
https://www.lynalden.com/misconceptions-about-bitcoin/
Directly credited for creating it, sure (not that we know who it is) But he does not control it, not has he ever moved any of his coins. And if he does, its makes no difference. The fully diluted supply will only ever be 21m coins, regardless if the original coins move or not.
Nice one Foxglove.
Or as the Urban Dictionary defines 'ineptocracy' : a system of government where the least capable to lead are
elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.
Love that term :) "ineptocracy"= NZ.
The use of off shore tax free havens is not exceeding difficult and indeed most banks private banking arms have a good line in setting up these arrangements. A producer who pays tax to support those in need is one thing, a producer who sees his taxes being used a toilet paper to serve moronic dribbling of the head incompetents is another. The tipping point is not too far off.
Unfortunately if we look at the US and UK experience of this, the government simply prints money to fill the tax-take gap and thereby reduces the producers purchasing power further.
In the end those who have assets get a undeserved return and those without become further franchised. And so the circle repeats.
Capitalism relies on resource draw-down.
Communism/socialism relies on resource draw-down.
The latter just does it more equitably; neither are sustainable.
Money merely reflects the level of equality, 'other people' suggests some are more equitable than others, and resent being equalised. Doesn't solve the bigger dilemma.
http://web.missouri.edu/~ikerdj/papers/SFT-Sustainable%20Captialism.htm
How many times.
Resources are artifacts of technology.
Plastics over leather
Batteries over electrical chords
Cloud over disk storage.
Digial image over film roll.
Alloy wheels over wooden spoke wheels.
Mind you, can I sell you a 2hr photo processing machine, you use to be able to buy them for $500,000, put it in Queenstown and retire.
Until you learn. Which may take some time :)
Those dog-biscuits were made from grain, I'm guessing. Grown in soil, using sunlight and nutrients, I'm guessing. That bag was made of fossil-feedstock (gas or oil) I'm guessing. All physical resources, limited by either supply or replenishment-rates. You fail to show the resource/energy demands of the list you provide. Kindly do so? Perhaps read the link provided - it is fairly clear.
Sorry, you are the expression of an outdated narrative/belief - much as Wilberforce tried to defend pre-Darwinian belief. Your big utility vehicle (I was right, I presume?) is made of steel, rubber, plastic, aluminium, traces of other elements (my better half is a schoolteacher; has explained to me that some folk don't get messages the first time). It is not, repeat not, made of technology. Not one molecule.
Plastic is fossil-sourced. Battery-contents are mined. Cloud is server-farms; materials-demanding, energy-demanding, heat-dissipating, failure-exposed. Digital requires supporting hardware, including parts-support and maintenance. Bauxite is mined. None of your list have divorced from physical resource use/depletion. Nor, if recycling is attempted to offset depletion, are they divorced from energy-requirement.
What you are doing - mainstream economics has done this for most of the fossil-energy bonanza - is conflating intellectual progress with resource draw-down within a bounded system (where entropy applies). I'm assuming you are doing this knowing you are wrong, but needing to spin on behalf of some entity? Fed Farmers? Something that sells to them? Nobody can really be that ignorant of physics, can they?
The onus is on you, to name the forward replacements (and clarify, please, if you assume exponential growth).
I am pointing out that there is a brick wall ahead, and that applying the brakes might be intelligent.
You are suggesting that we haven't hit anything yet, so let's keep accelerating.
'Running out' is a red-herring, has been well used for that purpose since Limits to Growth came out. Peaking, is the problem, coupled with 'ultimate scarcity', backgrounded by species overshoot. I gave you Catton's book, in a long list you never went near (is my guess). Do some homework, maybe. We are on the cusp of global war over 'what's left', we are past the energy-supply peak, well past the per-head peak, well into entropy territory. Unfortunately, our accounting system is blind to most of that, although it seems to be confused signal-wise. If you are a farming noise, you could be leading them, rather than obfuscating.
You dont "run out of resources"
You run out of economically viable resources
Which is why we need a ballooning Debt burden (basically a promise of more resources down the track...)
Theres a lump of coal sitting near the top of Mt Cook.
How much would you charge if I need it delivered?
I write, that resources are artifacts of technology.
The question to PDK is does he have empirical examples of his physical resources having run out and humanity going backwards. - I am trying to help him build his case.
I can, anyone can point to examples of resources being artifacts of technology.
Watch, next I indeed to sell PDK a flax mill.
Every exhausted mine, every exhausted oil-well, every ex-forest, every ex-farm that is now suburban sprawl, every protein-on-the-hoof extinction; all we've done is blunder to the next and the next and the..... oops, there isn't one.
This is why Britain needed colonies - indeed it's why we had to take the resources from the locals - Cape-to Cairo railway, Clippers from Australia, Guano from anywhere - it was all because of limits, overuse, overshoot back home. It's why two world wars over who would get access to energy and resources (Liebensraum fur Herrenvolk / Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere) and why we'll have more (Belt and road).
And you can scutch flaxmilling :) ; the flax-fields have been cleared and drained - they're your farms. That resource is largely gone. As your way of life will be sans fossil energy and phosphate and draw-down of much else.
Were not resources then,
are resources now.
What changed?
Technology.
Society’s appetite for commodities is shifting in favour of critical or strategic metals such as lithium, indium and cobalt. These metals are vital to support the rapidly diversifying electronics industry.
https://theconversation.com/amp/treasure-from-trash-how-mining-waste-ca…
Instead of three just try one Henry. And I would add a rider, as we are in, as you point out with PDK, the age of technology, we likely haven't run out of a resource that has driven the species backwards, but we have used resources to the extent that their exhausting has forced a change in our behaviour. This had likely happened hundreds if not thousands of times through history, but water is a very good example. The use of all the available fresh water in an area has forced changes in how we get water or where we can live. Israel as an example, desalinates Mediterranean sea water to supply itself and Gaza. Many of the points PDK makes is just that, we need to change our behaviour to protect the environment we live in. The longer we take to do that, the more pressing the need, and the more radical the change needs to be. There will be a point in time if we persist, that it will be too late.
Bollocks. Your industry had to push democracy out of Canterbury, to be able to impact as much as it does. Shiploads of PKE, from what used to be rainforest. The remains of the global phosphate, having run-out the guano. The joke is that your industry, as practiced, is the art of turning a finite energy resource - fossil fuels- into food energy. Not very efficiently, either, from a physics POV.
I thought you might be conversing, but you're not, are you? You're just cynically spinning.
Now you are moving away from the physical nature of resources, to Government policy and priorities. Priority that economic growth, jobs & income a priority was what you refer.
The rainforest you mention are not ours to determine the use of. As I mentioned before, different communities have differing views & priorities. We are able to get coal from Indonesia I understand, do a roaring trade now.
PO3 is a political situation atop of the resource you identify.
Farming here is light touch, compared to farming, maybe the Argentine Pampas is lighter, beautiful country - you should go, tour South America.
Thats why nz farming systems don't seem to transfer, because farming environments are so differing.
You often are circling back to fossil fuels. With luck and good management we should see the first nuclear units here in NZ in our lifetimes, even our working lifetimes.
There are tentative plans afoot already, local site scans, some have their own fuel source too !
The problems and seemingly self - destruction, being raised are undoubtedly being raised with quite some sincerity and reason. Yes NZ is imperfect in this regard but is this not the thin end of the stick. Would not our protagonists have greater, more meaningful impact tackling the greatest transgressors first and foremost. There is in caucasian heritage what was once described as an on the road to Damascus revelation. Ultimately that assisted greatly in the downfall of the then world empire of Rome. Trouble is it’s a very long road from NZ to anywhere else in reality. To me, much as I might agree with the message, it needs to be carried to the heart of let’s say Mordor if you like. The point being if you succeed in convincing and converting the entire population of NZ, what’s your next move. There have been a series of ever increasing dictates, approaching fanatical, issuing forth but these deserve a much larger audience surely. No use trying to convince the chicken coop when the problem is the wolf on the fold. Get up, get on your bike and give it to them over there where it counts lads, rather than just sitting in the comfort of home pounding the key board lecturing the easy pickings.
Your fertiliser is fossil-energy-derived. I could go on, but really you need to get informed. I gave you a list to read, you tried none. I know, because I've come across that approach before. Self-justification requires ignorance, if it is based on falsely-held assumptions. The self-justifier fiercly avoids knowing - as you will have.
The difference between us is that I probably devour at least 20,000 words a day, about 30% of them disagreeing with my own assumptions. When I came across McAfee, or come across a Lomborg or a Simon (or a Ruth Richardson, a Douglas) all of whom I disagree with, I get, and read, their books. With as open a mind as I can manage. See the difference?
Energy is everything, my friend. Try not eating, try not filling your tank. Neither of you go far, or long. And good-ratio energy (high EROEI) is needed to keep a society where so many do so f-all real work (in the physics sense). And the source we built our whole society on, was near magical in its bounty, its usefulness. But it was a finite resource, and we ramped into it exponentially, best-first. Only one way that ends, reducingly in net-energy terms, and rapidly in exponential ones.
I've known this since 1975. Warned forever. Demonstrated what to do (as best one can, amidst an unsustainable society). Now I'm getting a little louder.
Because we're getting late.
Go well - while you may.
To reiterate PDKs point Henry, that's just rubbish. Atmospheric carbon is so high that the planet is warming at an exponential rate. Combine this with the destruction of major forests like the Amazon and the ability to recycle all the carbon is severely hampered. Corruption and self interest is crippling any efforts to make headway. Even our own Government's recent introduction of the EV rebate is so fundamentally flawed as to be nonsensical.
That question is loaded with two propositions I disagree with. 1) That human history is a straight line of incremental improvement of wellbeing. 2) That humans are supernatural beings who will always win out in the end because of how clever we are, so we do not need to worry about our effect on the planet we live on.
Not sure those propositions are in there.
1. There is a case to say its not straight line, more hockey stick, since steam.
But things are better now than before. Many issues now are physiological/thoughts rather than physical/engineering.
2. Technology, innovation enables greater consideration of the environment. Different communities have different views, rules and priorities.
China for example, compared to Canada.
1 - perhaps you can help them think a harbour-bridge. That would save a lot of engineering. Imagine yourself in Europe and we'd not need aeroplanes. Fantasize you're pulling the trailer and you won't need the ute. Hypnotize the cows to stay in the paddock, no need for fencing. The common denominator in those? You're dreaming.
2 - No, it parallels an ever-bigger impact thereon. That process has never reversed; your current farming, because of scale and intensity, is far more damaging than farming in the 1950's. You can hide/fudge with offshoring, but the total is what it is.
Canada? The tar-sand place? The place with 'responsible pipelines'? Spare me.
Sorry, but our energy-use, our resource-use, our other-species impact, our desertification, our depletion-rates of extractables - they've ALL increased exponentially (your hockey-stick is correct). I'm sure things were 'better now' for the slum-leaving Steerage passengers on the Titanic - until physics altered their socially-upward trajectory. Never make the mistake of back-casting to project forward; on that basis you'd look angelic forever; your aging wouldn't happen (look in the mirror, what you see is entropy in action, indeed is proof you're wrong). According to you, you'd be 70 feet tall, 0 years old - oh, hang on, that was just a dream.....
1. Its good enough for the PM to imagine a walking bridge, and all the Auckland cyclists to accept that. So it it makes them happy.
2. Farming is less hard than previously. Mostly due to technology.
3. Without your catch cry, resources are finite you got nothing. Nothing to guilt people into the "ecology" movement. Hint check out invented the word ecology.
4. Productively yes, we are all super large, powerful now.
1 - takes resources an energy
2 - that's because what you used to do by hand, is done by oil
3 - ecology is what you are a part of - for all our arrogance, we still are born, age, procreate, die. Entropy still applies, as I said; look in the mirror. Entropy. Never sleeps
4 - -production requires energy, thermodynamic laws (unlike artificially-constructed financial ones, related to nothing real) apply. Again, Entropy applies. Powerful? check your dictionary - and weep.
Interesting giveaway - you need to deny that ecologists have any standing too? Ever asked why you need all this to be just so? Would you think that way if you were a barista? Self-justification; the usual underpin of the need to cling to belief. Upton Sinclair nailed it.......
H_T,
I was going to reply but then saw that pdk had already done so comprehensively.
However, I will deal with the last item on your list. have a look at this; https://www.vehicledynamicsinternational.com/features/how-are-alloy- wheels-made.html It explains the processes involved to make alloy wheels. The metals have to be dug up, refined, transported and machined. Every step requires energy. "resources are artifacts of technology" It might be more accurate to reverse that statement.
PDK people do not understand the word finite it would appear let alone the word infinite. Materials available have limits. Sure the Sun is an infinite energy source but you could end up needing solar panels to build more solar panels. There will still be requirements for fossil products no matter how small by comparison to todays usage. I think we will see the crunch when we hit peak population, only then will the lights go on in most peoples heads. Many people think technology will save us, I think that the hope that something will come up that saves us is wishful thinking at best.
Record high figures in the US Reverse Repo market overnight:
https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOW…
This is concerning. Previously: $547,808 Billion 0% to 49 participants. Last night:$583,892 Billion 0% to 59 participants.
"U.S. repo rates jump to highest level since 2008 at quarter-end By Reuters Staff
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A key overnight borrowing cost for Wall Street surged on Thursday to its highest level since the height of the global credit crunch in the fall of 2008, as investors slashed their lending to dealers and banks at quarter-end."
I've been reading up on this, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that banks, government entities, money market funds, "buy" short term treasury bonds from the Fed. I say "buy:, because the deal is only overnight. The next day they sell them back to the Fed and get their $ back. There is 0% interest on the reverse repo and they don't make any cash doing this. The message it sends is that banks and money makers are sitting on piles of cash, but don't trust other investments at the moment, so they store it overnight with the Fed.
Its got to the point with so many drinking from the punch bowl thinking everyone will get bailed out that even Junk Bonds are negative yielding.
The appetite for high risk is astonishing
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/11/surging-inflation-never-mind-junk-bon…
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