Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No more changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ has simplified its savings accounts, eliminating 'bonuses' and rolling them into one rate at the top end of what they offer. NBS has raised TD rates, as has the Police Credit Union.
NORMALISING?
In their monthly truckometer release today, ANZ said it say things 'normalising'. But they also noted: "The New Zealand economy is strained. A lack of labour and delayed and more costly imports are hampering the supply side of the economy, while demand is extremely strong. It’s a pretty stressful and inflationary combination, and transport companies are certainly in the thick of it, with a severe shortage of truck and courier drivers and very strong demand putting the pressure on. It’s a bit of a microcosm of the state of the economy as a whole."
THE LOCALS STEP UP
The net impact of Australian cancellations caused by the travel bubble pause on the ski accommodation sector will be minimal, according to new data. New figures from Bachcare,show last minute domestic bookings have quickly offset gaps left by Australian tourists unable to travel to NZ as a result of disruption to the quarantine-free travel bubble in recent weeks. According to the data Queenstown and Wanaka have reached 90% capacity and Arrowtown is at 88% - as domestic interest in skiing during the school holidays surges.
HEARTLAND LOSING CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
Heartland Group Holdings says Laura Byrne, its chief operating officer, will leave before year's end. She has been at Heartland for eight years, also in the roles of general counsel and chief people & culture officer. Heartland says it will consider its longer term requirements and provide a further market update prior to Byrne’s departure.
TOWER CFO LEAVING
Tower says its chief financial officer, Jeff Wright, will leave the insurer at the end of 2021. Wright has been with Tower for five years and is returning home to Australia. Tower says it has launched an executive search process for Wright’s replacement and will provide a further market update in due course.
READING THE TEA LEAVES - SIX +25bps HIKES OVER THE NEXT 18+ MONTHS
This week most banks upgraded their expectations of a +25 bps OCR hike in November. This ANZ summary is useful: "This week we brought forward our expectation for interest rate hikes. We now expect the OCR to be increased to 0.50% in the November 2021 meeting, with further hikes at each MPS until we reach a terminal OCR of 1.75% in early 2023. The QSBO reinforced what we’ve seen in our monthly Business Outlook – the economy is running red hot." Reinforcing that, Westpac today added some technical specifics about where the pressure are in the ride to a 1.75% OCR in their Ready Reckoner. So if a 1 year fixed mortgage rate is now 2.2%, perhaps this suggests it will rise to at least 3.7% over that time.
GREEN BOND OFFER POPULAR
Kiwi Property Group (KPG, #19) has closed the offer for its seven-year fixed-rate senior secured green bonds following a successful bookbuild, with NZ$150 mln raised (including oversubscriptions of NZ$50 mln).
GETTING TOUGHER
China's consumer inflation rate is slipping, dipping from a modest +1.3% in May to +1.1% in June and an unexpected fall back. This is consistent with a developing drag in their economy. Consumption isn't driving growth yet. (Also note that pork, beef and lamb prices are now falling.) On the producer side however, PPI inflation remains very high at +8.8% pa in June compared with +9.0% in May. That slip is meaningless to some, and an indicator that the top has passed to others. Cost pressures are putting a real squeeze on Chinese businesses, and they don't seem to be able to pass those costs on, not locally at least. And given their business conditions are neither expanding nor contracting at present, the coming squeeze may become uncomfortable.
COVID COMMUNITY/HOSPITAL NUMBERS JUMP IN SYDNEY
With a worrying jump in numbers, NSW is confronting “the biggest challenge we have faced since the pandemic started”. Their lockdown could continue beyond next Friday unless there was a dramatic reduction soon. Kiwis wanting to return from NSW will now have to quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival back here.
GOLD UP AGAIN
Compared to where we were at this time yesterday, the gold price is up +US$8/oz to US$1807/oz in early Asian trading.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The S&P500 ended its Wall Street trading down -0.9%. In Tokyo, they have started today's session down another -2.0% on top of yesterday's hard drop. Hong Kong has started today up +0.7%. But Shanghai has opened down -0.7%. Asian markets are suffering anxiety of resurgent pandemic outbreaks. The ASX200 is trading -1.3% lower in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 Capital Index is down -0.8% in late trade.
SWAP & BONDS FLATTEN SHARPLY YET AGAIN
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are significant changes again today, we will update this item. They are probably little-changed at the 1 and 2 yr end and holding the recent hikes. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 0.34%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -1 bp at just on 1.34%. The China Govt ten year bond is down another -2 bps at 3.03%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is also down another -4 bps so far today at 1.53% and still below the earlier RBNZ fix of 1.54% (-9 bps). The US Govt ten year is down another -3 bps from this time yesterday to 1.29%.
NZ DOLLAR SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar has slipped further today, down to just over 69.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed from this morning at 58.6 euro cents.So the TWI-5 is holding still at 72.2 after the overnight fall (or more correctly the USD rise).
BITCOIN SLIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$32,902 and down another -1.4% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.
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26 Comments
Not a nice metaphor if you had family there I daresay. Either side. Many young men, regardless of courage or ability, were cut down, blown asunder, their adult lives finite before they had hardly begun, with very little understanding of exactly why. Not accustomed to banal, tactless comment as such from you.
They might not have understood why, but there was indeed a why?
Cape-to-Cairo railway, Liebensraum fur Herrenvolk, The Greater EA Co-prosperity Sphere, Belt-and Road, US interventions; they are all the same thing; too many people competing for too little resource.
Oh OK, so the BNZ has reduced the rapid save total a month ago and has now rolled the "bonus" into the rate. Well thats OK. I will reduce the amount I have in there.... and "still" get the 0.15%... Haha. Pathetic.
Well its better than "you money" where you get 0.00%.
Australians are realising that they're fighting a delaying action at best here. Scientific consensus is that living with Covid-19 in circulation will be reality. I'm not advocating that Sydney should give up on eliminating it now, given it's low vaccination rate but I'd not be surpised if in the next one they let it run if they have over a 50% vaccination rate.
Mortgage deferrals reinstated in Aussie.
The coronavirus outbreak in Sydney that has seen the city locked down for two weeks has triggered the return of loan deferrals for business and home loan customers following discussions on Thursday afternoon.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/sydney-lockdown-trigge…
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