Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news China's growth impetus seems to be stuttering.
But first, and for the first time in more than a year, the FAO global food price index didn't rise in June, even if the dip was small. However, it is still one third higher than it was a year ago. Almost all the retreat was due to the already sky-high vegetable oils category. There was little relief in any other category with dairy prices up +22% in a year and meat prices up +15% in a year.
In China their central bank cut the Reserve Ratio Requirement over the weekend. This is a cut in the amount of cash that banks are required to hold as reserves, releasing about ¥1 tln yuan (NZ$220 bln) in long-term liquidity back into an economy that does seem to need some stimulus. They say these funds are being directed to aid small business. Even if this is not a major easing, it is a major shift in policy tone.
Chinese June car sales took an unexpected retreat, more evidence of a softening economy. Year-on-year they were down -12% and this is despite a surge in the first few months of 2021. A shortage of computer chips is also likely to have been a factor.
China's consumer inflation rate is slipping, dipping from a modest +1.3% in May to +1.1% in June and another unexpected fall back. This is also consistent with a developing drag in their economy. Consumption isn't driving growth yet. (Also note that pork, beef and lamb prices are now falling.) On the producer side however, PPI inflation remains very high at +8.8% pa in June compared with +9.0% in May. That slip is meaningless to some, and an indicator that the top has passed to others. Cost pressures are putting a real squeeze on Chinese businesses, and they don't seem to be able to pass those costs on, not locally at least. And given their business conditions are neither expanding nor contracting at present, the coming squeeze may become uncomfortable.
China's new bank lending swelled +12.3% year-on-year in June, marginally higher than in May but at the low end of their debt growth over the past 20 years.
The Chinese iron ore and metallurgical coal prices are staying high, although they haven't risen further this past week.
Copper prices may be slightly off their peak but they are still near decade highs. Aluminium is still near three year highs.
The Baltic Dry index is also staying high although it is not moving out of the range it has been in since mid-June which is its highest in a decade. But things are far hotter for shipping container rates. These are up more than +50% since May (when they were already high) and now average NZ$12,000 per trip globally. But there are plenty of situations where they are as high as NZ$17,000 in the China trade, and as high as almost NZ$30,000 for spot, last minute situations.
And we should note that the NZ carbon price is now up to NZ$47.80/NZU, a rise of +11% in just a week (from $43/NZU) and up +54% in a year (from $31/NZU). Two years ago it was just NZ$23.20/NZU.
In the US, their new Administration has kicked off a big push to promote competition in the American economy and push back on the winner-takes-all environment that has built up quickly over the past decade. "Capitalism without competition isn't capitalism. It's exploitation," Biden said when he signed the related Executive Order. It is now expected that US Federal Agencies will reinvigorate significant anti-trust activities.
At the same time, the US Fed sent its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, noting supply shortages and hiring difficulties are holding back their recovery from firing on all cylinders.
In Canada they recorded a good overall gain in employment, but it was all for part time work and almost all for young people; full-time employment actually fell. And their jobless rate blipped up to 7.8% in June.
With a worrying jump in numbers, NSW is confronting “the biggest challenge we have faced since the pandemic started”. Restrictions have been tightened as case numbers grow. The number of people in strict isolation has doubled to 14,000 in a day. Yesterday 77 new locally acquired community cases were uncovered and the expectation is that more than 100 will be revealed today. NSW's half-hearted lockdown measures are not working and until they are tightened their local risks will rise.
On Wall Street, earnings season is about to start for Q2-2021. And expectations are high. Usually analyst forecasts start out high and get whittled back as the company result release gets closer. But this year the reverse is happening with rising expectations. If it doesn't happen, the market reactions could be fierce.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 1.36% and unchanged. The US 2-10 rate curve slightly steeper at +1.15 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +72 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also unchanged at +131 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.38% and unchanged from Saturday. The China Govt ten year bond is at 3.04% and also unchanged. The New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.55%, unchanged as well but down -16 bps over the past week.
The price of gold is now just over US$1808/oz which is down -US$3/oz from this time Saturday.
Oil prices have stabilised. In the US they are now just over US$74/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$75/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today just under 70 USc and marginally firmer than where we left it on Saturday. Against the Australian dollar we virtually unchanged at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are slightly firmer at 59 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today up slightly at 72.6 but still almost -50 bps lower than this time last week.
The bitcoin price is now at US$33,907 and up +1.3% from this time on Saturday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been a moderate +/- 1.6%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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133 Comments
NSW not only has issues with lockdown laxity, it has even greater issues with attitude. Have both friends & family there. Their off spring,late teens, 20s, 30s no intention whatsoever of being vaccinated. They are bulletproof so why bother. Just party on. Sacre Bleu according to the french, or more simply, fouqued.
An issue we will have in NZ eventually. A partly vaccinated population is the worst situation for Covid-19 mutating into ever more virulent versions. We need a carrot and stick approach once we have sufficient vaccine. A vaccination card with photo (with a driving license version to minimise cards) as identity issued with $25 cash voucher - no international travel without card (alternative being very bureaucratic meetings with officials and paid for health checks).
Lottery tickets are a great idea - I like the idea that every Kiwi gets a similar chance. At present the govt is spending a fortune running vaccination centres which reward those like myself - elderly and therefore high risk and sufficiently wealthy to be looking forward to a trip to Europe - the young poor get no reward - probably they lose income taking time off work for a vaccination or paying a babysitter.
Article 6 – Consent
1. Any preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic medical intervention is only to be carried out with the prior, free and informed consent of the person concerned, based on adequate information. The consent should, where appropriate, be express and may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without disadvantage or prejudice.
http://portal.unesco.org/en/ev.php-URL_ID=31058&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SEC…
It is only economic nudging. We need young poor kiwis to be vaccinated not to protect them because they are very low risk of Covid-19 but to protect the rest of us. So pay them to be vaccinated - it is only fair. And it is not compulsory so meets your definition of consent.
So giving a cup of tea and a biscuit after a blood donation is out? How does '...without disadvantage or prejudice' apply to my Pasifika wife being encouraged to test for diabetes at age 40 but if she was Caucasian 55?
I do advocate for young people who are low risk Covid mortality being persuaded to be vaccinated. I also encourage all parents to vaccinate their children against measles. If we have signed up to something that prevents common sense then we should unsign.
Interesting attitude - "You locked us out of housing so you can die for all I care."
Young people (my 14yo son being one of them) can also have compromised immunity, and even people who were apparently fit and healthy have died of Covid, what say you to them? Less competition for housing I guess. Survival of the fittest and all that.
Why is it so wild? Respitory disease is the third most common cause of death in this country. Respitory disease affects people, especially children, living in damp, cold, overcrowded housing, garages, motels and cars.
The RBNZ and our politicians use the term "distributional consequences" with a straight face every time they enact more policies to pump housing and immigration for the sake of "muh economy". If you think about it, what they actually mean is making sick and killing more kids is the price that should be be paid so that GDP is pumped and low-IQ people feel better about the paper value of their house.
100% socially acceptable. We even pay them a high salary to do it.
I kind of don't know how to answer that, it's getting into some disturbing territory. Maybe...because humanity? Not all old folk are deserving of wrath, and young people certainly aren't.
There's a whole lot of bitter people these days and it's not conducive to societal harmony. I understand you're unhappy (likely understatement) about the housing market, but to wish possible death upon a group simply because a handful of them are doing harmful things, and damn those who just happen to be collateral damage, is a bemusing perspective to me, but (genuine) thanks for providing a counter opinion.
Do you know about the risk benefit ratio for the mRNA vaccine for our Tamariki ? Have a look at https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-16.asp. We have already 7 case of myocarditis in NZ, plus over 200 serious Adverse effects for 500 000 people fully vaccinated people. 14 deaths by the way (4 unexplained so far). The CDC estimates the risk at over 40 myocarditis per million in the young adults population that means we could make 60 young people sick in NZ and that's myocarditis alone. This mRNA Vaccine is experimental, it is not an approved or licensed drug, it was authorized for emergency use only, rushed to provide protection for people most at risk of severe COVID. We are still learning about the long term effects. Get Vaccinated if you want, but please leave other people make that decision for themselves and their family without coercion of any sort.
I think the benefits outweigh the risks for every age group. Certainly everyone over 50 should take the vaccine. It is rational on a cost/benefit basis.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/06/23/benefits-vaccination…
That's your point of view, and the opinion Leana S. Wen in the article. Yet you also have people with opposite views on this, including doctors, scientists (e.g https://nzdsos.com). So this is not a simple issue. We have to let people decide for themselves. There is no need to divide NZ into 2 groups.
It already is: The people who can get a vaccine and the people who can't get a vaccine but are relying on other people not deciding to die on a hill that leads to community spread of a disease that could kill people with compromised immunity, like cancer patients, or who cannot safely take a vaccine, like pregnant women.
This mRNA Vaccine is experimental, it is not an approved or licensed drug, it was authorized for emergency use only
No, in New Zealand it was not authorised under emergency use provisions. And that's precisely why Pfizer was the only authorised vaccine here - because the other vaccine providers haven't been able to provide enough information for the government to authorise their use. J&J cleared this hurdle in the last week or so.
IMO we should have been authorizing vaccines for emergency use - practically every other country has, including Australia. Our vaccine rollout until now has been severely supply constrained; with other vaccines being approved we could have had better uptake by now.
Certainly not the case in the US and the EU. Do we know better than them ?
"The government was found to be in breach of the Medicines Act and hastily changed the law without consolation." https://nzdsos.com
https://kti.org.nz/?cat=5
Even Pfizer isn't through the normal process. Is Pfizer providing indemnity for NZ citizens or has it done a deal with the NZ govt to absolve itself of liability like it has in other countries?
'Sponsor: BioNTech SE
Collaborator: Pfizer
Information provided by (Responsible Party): BioNTech SE
...A PHASE 1/2/3, PLACEBO-CONTROLLED, RANDOMIZED, OBSERVER-BLIND, DOSE-FINDING STUDY TO EVALUATE THE SAFETY, TOLERABILITY, IMMUNOGENICITY, AND EFFICACY OF SARS-COV-2 RNA VACCINE CANDIDATES AGAINST COVID-19 IN HEALTHY INDIVIDUALS
Actual Study Start Date : April 29, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date : November 2, 2021
Estimated Study Completion Date : May 2, 2023'
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728?term=NCT04368728&draw=2…
Has the the most open and transparent government ever released the details of the Pfizer deal - yeah or nah?
'Government officials have also said they were unable to find an agreement with Pfizer regarding liability. "They are responsible for the vaccine, not the state," said President Alberto Fernandez. "The state buys, and they sell. I do not understand why we should provide them with a standard that would absolve them of all civil and criminal liability."
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-did-pfizer-put-profit-first/a…
Given the choices are:
1. Keep our borders closed forever so COVID never gets in
2. Vaccinate the vast majority of the population with a government-directed rollout, so we can gain herd immunity (or as close as we can) with the expected costs to a very tiny number of people who have bad reactions to the vaccine, then open the borders
3. Half-heartedly vaccinate only those who are determined to be "vulnerable" and require anyone else who wants to be vaccinate to get it done at their own cost and inconvenience, then open the borders and watch as hundreds or thousands of people end up with serious cases of COVID, or dead
My choice is #2.
#1 and #3 are both severe impositions on human rights.
what about that one:
4. * COVID19 Vaccine free for all, without coercion, with clear guideline about the risk benefit ratio for each demographics (like for the flu). People with high risk will vaccinate by themselves, people with low risk will not and that their rights in NZ (right 6 & 7 of code of rights). we have laws like that for good reasons, Public health have done mistakes in the past and drugs are found to be dangerous and removed from the markets all the time.
* Provide clear information about how to boost immune system of the general population (sleep, stress , exercise, Vitamin D, Zinc,.. the usual suspects)
* Get primary care doctors to treat patient who develop symptom of severe COVID as early as possible like any another viral infection. (https://c19early.com).
* buy a Pulse Oximeter if you can afford it for your whanau to be able to detect silent hypoxia early and get treated.
* open the border in Spring. Covid is very seasonal.
I am not sure we agree, vaccines are just part of the solution and I do not think people have the information they need to give informed consent (IFR vs risk factors) . Moreover there is no open discussion about early treatment options (off label prescription) let alone mentioning what people can do to boost their immunity.
It doesn't technically qualify as a medicine yet, it is still an experiment. The consent required is that by the Nuremburg Code, that to have a medical experiment performed on you. They payment for that should be considerably larger, and should also involved liability for things when it goes wrong.
I learnt from a cousin yesterday that they've lost a friend in Sydney that died after having the vaccine. Thing was the hospital wouldn't hand over the documentation to report it as an adverse reaction to the vaccine.
In NZ the Pfizer vaccine has been approved as a new medicine, not under emergency use provisions.
You can find all the details here: https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/status-of-applications.asp
Read in Europe they have had over a million die of Covid who were not vaccinated,and 3 million others around the world vs your one anecdote, which sounds unrelated to the vaccine you are plainly terrified of .
Do the math,not hard,the extremely favourable risk/benefit ratio of vaccination is proven and it's all way beyond experimental now.
What compo for those who get Covid and get dead or crippled get due to lack of vaccine, possibly due to antivaxxers misinformation, or Boris J's repeated and failed herd immunity experiment attempts?
BTW if you and Profile ever get the jabs, you will first be assailed with consent forms to sign, nobody is forcing you to do your public duty and possibly save yourself as well.
I did the math on the risk benefit and it is not favorable for my kids who are very lucky to be in good health.
benefit for the vaccine: less than 1 in a million
put in perspective (300x more likely to die from suicide, 200x more likely to die from flu, in all 1000x more likely to die from any another cause)
risk of mRNA vaccine: Long term effect Unknown, myocarditis 65 in a million
You can't 100% predict how well YOUR child will do when exposed to COVID until they're exposed to COVID.
Normally severe illness and death amongst people under 40 is due to comorbidities, but not always. There can also be pre-existing conditions that you don't know about that give them high risk of severe illness or death. The delta strain in particular is infecting younger people more readily than previous strains did.
The best that can be done is to look at population data and assume that your child is going to be the same as the population. For the vast majority of people that is a safe assumption, but not all.
That math all changes if we have widespread community transmission, leading to much greater morbidities.
The whole point of the program is to prevent that outbreak.
It may make sense eventually to do younger and younger age groups to get the jab percentage up as the numbers of vaccine hesitant Scarfies may preclude getting to that 80%+ needed .Due to the strollout the youngsters will be in no danger of a jab anytime soon.The myocarditis appears transitory in almost all cases, without long term effects.
Nope, this is data from EU and the US where a great deal of people have been exposed to SARs-cov-2 for over 18 months. there is no reason to think it is going to be different in NZ where when we open up. In fact with the most at risk vaccinated, and with proper protocol in place if someone get severe COVID( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32771461/) there are good reasons to think that NZ could do very well as we have the benefit of learning from others.
They have since April and what they found is that the Detla variant is not as deadly as you would think reading mainstream media. But keeping the fear going is another way to coerce people to take the vaccine. Page 8, Case fatality rate for Detla: 0.1% . IFR for all variants so far : 0.18%, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uplo…
My cousin is older than me David, and the meeting was face to face. We are talking two intelligent people (her husband included) and a masters degree in philosophy (trained to think for themselves). Whereas I haven't known Jacinda Adern all that long, and her job description is to be popular, including lying if she needs to. I've seen you first hand taking down information, or censoring, so in my evaluation of evidence who am I best to trust? First hand sources, or media and science that are captured by the dollar?
The statistics for the USA don't support the vaccine altering the course of the virus at all, as I've been posting they are in mortality displacement now. That is direct from the CDC website. India also out the other side of the epidemic with only 4.9% vaccinated is also a fail in the case for vaccines.
Why take something that is still and experiment, and thus still questionable, when the whole reason for taking it is questionable?
However I appreciate what you say, a fair portion of the anti vax crowd are simply anti authority and don't have the technical knowledge really know either way. If anyone lumps me in with those anti vaxxers the error would be theirs. The lesson here though is that people have lost trust.
I encourage everyone here to watch "The War on Sensemaking" by Daniel Schmactenburger, a prescient piece of work. Nobody can really know the truth. He states 50% of studies published in medical journals are found to be not true within 5 years. Your chance of any medicine being safe is the same as a coin toss.
well David, you can choose to read various sources and try to form an opinion ...
or tune into all those national debates they have had on vaccine and .... oh wait ... no theres only "misinformation" or official sources right?
https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/07/07/infections-surge-among-the-vacc…
Australian Paramedic:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/WosVhPvQarRB/
Meanwhile… we’ve got Sweden … no lockdowns – ever – no masks – ever…. no disaster.
In fact they continue to drop down the table and are now 30th in deaths per capita https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwid…
The propaganda is getting more desperate.
https://off-guardian.org/2021/07/05/new-normal-newspeak-1-herd-immunity/
Here is a career vaccine developer explaining https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccinatio…
Oh, still going with the "Sweden had no lockdown" story.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/14/swedish-region-declares-personal-lo…
https://www.bbc.com/news/55949640
'Conclusions:
Meta-analyses based on 18 randomized controlled treatment trials of ivermectin in COVID-19 have found large, statistically significant reductions in mortality, time to clinical recovery, and time to viral clearance. Furthermore, results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin. Finally, the many examples of ivermectin distribution campaigns leading to rapid population-wide decreases in morbidity and mortality indicate that an oral agent effective in all phases of COVID-19 has been identified.'
https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Fulltext/2021/06000/Revie…
I get the 'sarc' tag, but there is a part of this that frustrates me. Not just confined to COVID, but rampant in many other activities, there is a segment of our society, and it may be getting bigger, who's only interest is their own personal freedoms and rights, and just do not give a damn about anyone else! They are selfish and arrogant. They do not understand that EVERY choice they make has consequences, and the right to make a choice carries responsibilities. It seems society struggles to teach this to our children. Some of those consequences impact on others. that woman who died because of COVID, was to all intents and purposes killed by her own family, as she caught if from her own household!
That is why we have laws. Most of our laws are about keeping us safe from the 'stupid' inside us and surrounding us, and if it take the Police enforcing those laws, then I am all for it! If you are sick, stay the F***K home until you are better! DO NOT share your germs with your friends, that is not a friendly thing to do.
Due to the rise of libertarianism and their rather loud voices promoted by those at the top of our capitalist food chains (the enormous Kochs of the world) who want to live in their own libertarian paradise without rules or regulations (or rather what they call "spontaneous legislation" or similar!). They conflate this to "freedom" to sell to the masses, who tend to blindly follow as a result of a Western cultural obsession to the point of religious fanaticism. Of course it's utterly preposterous even given cursory thought - you get more than one person in an environment and you will quickly realise that you need rules, standards, regulations and groups dedicated to sort out competing issues (i.e. some type of governance). The more people, the more of these you will need. Else you have anarchy, which is total freedom, but takes us back to being cave men - those with the biggest guns win.
If you want some entertainment, just read about what happens when they try to set it up: https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-into-bear-book….
Yep murray86 I am with you. Simple way to get all vaccinated is to have vac passport on phones. At any function, event, pubs ,hotels, tourist destinations and any other places, Oh yes shopping malls. No passport No entry. I think that will soon get everyones attention. Speaking to a health professional today who thinks this vaccination will become the norm. As I was getting my annual flu jab I asked why can't it be incorprated in with my normal jab. She said it probably will in the future,also this will continuo on in our life times.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bank-of-mum-and-dad-becoming-one-of-the-n…
Thank you Jacinda Arden. Now house ownership is possible only if one has rich mom n dad so generation who do not have house will be renter for ever - It is a relay, passing the baton as now only people with existing house can buy a second, third, fourth... house for themselves or for their childern.
Jacinda Arden dream of new NZ - will be interesting to see, if asked how she with her smirk will try to convince that houses are more affordable now than before and the policy adopted of Wait and Watch should be given time....few years to see what happens.
Another wave of virus, gives more opportunity to government and reserve bank to be generous to inflate asset class.
Interesting observation by Peter S :
How do you get in line to get a covid jab?
Or more to the point, how do you get to the front of the queue and actually get a jab?
I've talked to two colleagues in the last week who have had either one or both jabs.
Both of them are about 30 years old.
Both have residency but neither have citezenship.
Is it a case of the squeaky wheel gets the oil?
Its up to the individual whether they get vaccinated or not, you do a personal risk assessment in real time and make the decision. Be prepared to change that decision going forward. Personally with no community transmission its on the back burner for me, that coupled with I would be in the top 20% of Kiwis over the age of 50 fitness wise.
How about 4th in the country Frazz. https://www.maoritelevision.com/shows/waka-ama-sprint-nationals-2021/S0…
But people will probably still find some reason to fault that, tall poppy and all. Where do you think that level of fitness puts me? 1:10,000 in the total population? I'm on the way up still also, I was 8th in my maiden run last year. I got up against open men in local competitions and regularly beat them except for the current national champ. I've got a maximum heart rate of 199 (that of a 21 year old) and a minimum of 44.
I've got a national championship win in team long distance (marathon) in 2019. I posted that here and got about the same level of intelligence in response that is happening with Covid Vaccines, not much.
Thing is I got there relying heavily on sports science for training and nutrition. I'd fancy I know more about these things than most, and would include the immune system in there. Funny thing I keep coming across in my research is how bad a lack of exercise is for you, and being fat. If anyone is over 14% body fat it is decreasing their longevity, it is linear too. Excess body fat is a constant irritation to the immune system, and leads to autoimmune disease such as Arthritis. I turned my fathers Arthritis around completely last year, from pain level 8 to none.
I've learnt from sports that people are full of shit. When you win that law still applies.
Its up to "Others" to take personal responsibility and get the jab if they feel at risk. Sorry but the bottom line is that its every man for himself, always has been and always will be. Took me years to realise that, I don't bother to try and fight it anymore, your on the loosing team if you try and the opposition just walk all over you.
Car crashes aren't contagious. You have to be in a car to die in a car crash.
The only way to avoid an infectious disease is to totally segregate yourself from other humans. It's reasonable for someone to not drive or be a passenger in a car. It's unreasonable to suggest that people totally segregate themselves from other humans.
I said car accident, not car crash, and you absolutely don't have to be in a car to be killed by one:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/300352120/serious-crash-unit-res…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/caution-urged-on-driveways-after-child-ki…
I didn't say "be killed by one", I said "die in [one]", for a reason.
The accepted technical term is "car crash" not "car accident".
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a34741342/crash-vs-accident/
Sounds good to me. The road doesn't need anymore people with "OUT OF MY WAY, I CAN DO WHAT I LIKE, I HAVE RIGHTS" dickheads than it already has on it. I'd shudder to think what the roads would be like if people disregarded basic road safety laws on the basis it could arguably impinge their right to Freedom of Movement or Freedom of Assembly.
"Doesn't really affect kids much"
Better let Brazil know: Brazil's Ministry of Health has reported 1122 coronavirus deaths in children aged under 10 since the pandemic began, but United States-based not-for-profit health group Vital Strategies believes the figure could be closer to 3000 deaths, CNN has reported.
Cool story. CNN is fake news.
Meanwhile in reality. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
Who cares what CNN has to say about Brazil? Here's a paper from the NZ Medical Journal with the IFRs split by age. The IFR of COVID for ages 0-9 is 0.0016% - so if 100,000 kids got COVID, slightly more than 1 kid would die from it.
https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/estimated-inequities-in-covid-…
thats no that simple , IFR for COVID varies greatly with demographics, so while it is serious for the frail elderly and the immuno compromised, it is a negligible threat for other people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4grP1718Ps
The strategy has to take this fact into account.
Those youngsters who are not dying of it could , with or without symptoms,could easily transmit it to their uncle Scarfie, or Profile, who could land up in hospital costing the taxpayer money, and maybe cost them their Covid-denying lives.That type will want to be at the front of the queue for treatment if it happens to them.
If it can carry it, it can spread it.
Go to one of the Maori funded providers. They are vaccinating everyone who turns up. Recently a nurse got disciplined because she tried to turn down a 16 year old for the jab (quite rightly - as per the policy) but got hauled over the coals for cultural insensitivity. The kid got the jab.
Anyone can turn up and get the jab there.
This was on TV last night
https://media.apnarm.net.au/media/images/2020/10/19/v3imagesbin4cadc9b7…
Bitcoiners take note
This is what "store of wealth" looks like without energy burn
The consensus is determined by the which forks the majority of nodes followed after the fork wars. Most determined the store of value narrative was the preferred path, and that is why Bitcoin cash and BSV are failed forks (see market cap, and also hash rate of the different forks).
I know that holding cash or negative (real) yielding bonds makes you go backwards, and stocks seem over inflated, and not my cup of tea. Many other options are currently impaired (see your photo of parked-up planes). So real estate and Bitcoin does the trick for me. My medical practice generates cash, so what else do I do with it? After genuine ideas?
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