Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has updated its one year fixed rate by a minor +5 bps to 2.55%, its two year fixed rate by a minor +5 bps to 2.95%. And it reduced its three year rate by -9 bps to 3.15%. None of these rates are especially notable although the three year is now the lowest of the big banks and matching the Cooperative Bank.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society (NBS) raised their 2 and 3 year TD rates.
NZGB YIELDS TURN UP SLIGHTLY
There were 96 bids for some parts of today's $550 mln NZGBs tendered and 49 of them won something from the $1.343 bln bid in total. This bidding pushed up yields above the levels of the prior equivalent tender two weeks ago. The May 2026 $200 mln was won by 13 bids at an average 1.24% pa, above the prior 1.15% yield. The May 2028 $200 mln was won by 13 bidders (of 28) at 1.45% pa yield (vs 1.37% last time). The April 2033 $100 mln was won by 9 bidders (of 22) at 1.76% pa (vs 1.73% last time). There was also a small $50 mln linker which ended with an average winning yield of 0.68% plus CPI (0.66% plus CPI last time).
RESTING?
The listed retirement home category of four companies has outperformed the overall market over the past year. But these capitalisations generally declined last week with Oceania (OCA, #31) down -3.3% and Summerset (SUM, #13) down -2.9% from the prior week. But Ryman (RYM, #8) was the sole riser, making back some prior underperformance and up +1.2% against the trend. This sector now accounts for 8.1% of the total NZX50 capitalisation. A year ago it was 7.9% on the same basis. (By the way, NZX has currently got IT issues - again.)
CHANGE AT THE TOP
BNZ has revealed that Paul Carter, "Executive, Chief Customer Officer – Partnership Banking", will be leaving BNZ on December 31, 2021.
AT THE TOP
In Australia, their June trade surplus for both goods and services of AU$10.5 bln is a fresh record high for any month, eclipsing the previous peak of AU$9.9 bln in January. But almost off of this strength is due to higher prices - it is possible that the final data will sown Aussie merchandise export volumes falling. And if prices start retracing, the combination could generate a rapid unwinding of their recent goldilocks run.
PRESSURE IN NSW REMAINS INTENSE
There were 262 new community cases in NSW today with another 133 not assigned to known clusters, so still going backwards there. Victoria is reporting two new cases. Queensland is reporting 27 new cases so starting to grow there. However, Queensland authorities are starting to talk about re-opening. Overall in Australia, 20% of Aussies are fully vaccinated, 42% have now had at least one shot. Aussie corporates are now starting to insist on 'no jab, no job' policies. There was one new case in New Zealand at the border, but still none in the community. In New Zealand 15% are now fully vaccinated, with 24% having had at least one shot.
GOLD MOVES DOWN TODAY
Compared to where we were this time yesterday, the gold price is down -US$6/oz at US$1809/oz in early Asian trading.
EQUITIES MEANDER IN NARROW RANGES
The S&P500 ended -0.5% lower in Wednesday trade earlier.. Tokyo has opened up +0.2%, and Hong Kong has opened up +0.3%. But Shanghai has opened flat in very early trading. The ASX200 is up another +0.2% in afternoon trade. But the NZX50 Capital Index which is down -0.5% in late trade today and in a falling trend.
SWAP & BONDS RATES JUMP
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet and if there are significant ongoing changes we will note them here. They are probably little-changed with all the action over and done with yesterday (?). The 90 day bank bill rate is up +10 bps at 0.65% but most of this happened late yesterday. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -1 bps at 1.15%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.85%. The New Zealand Govt ten year however is down -2 bps at 1.60% and above the earlier RBNZ fix of 1.59% (+1 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.18% and down -1 bp today.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS HIGHER
The Kiwi dollar has been just marginally softer so far today and is now at 70.5 USc and basically holding most of yesterday's rise. Against the Aussie we are unchanged high at 95.4 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 is still at 73.4 and staying up.
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BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$39,442 and up +3.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 3.2%.
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15 Comments
We may only be at 15% but the vaccination program is finally getting going in earnest over the next three months. We now have vaccines and trained staff so it's squeaky-bum time for the program in terms if scaling: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…
....
I found that earnings announcement by Uber fascinating, my question about all these taxi and delivery services has been "...but would that model work in a strong employment environment?" and it looks like we may be seeing the limits of these personal services companies: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-04/uber-racked-up-losse…
Uber's model seems to be to lose money and take market share with human drivers in the hope that self driving cars come along and they can eliminate their biggest expense. The question is whether they can stay capitalised until that happens
The Uber business model needs to die. They do not bring enough to the table to justify their share of the customer's wallet. Ideally, ride sharing should a pure P2P business.
Maybe. But remember how awful taxis were before uber revolutionised the industry?
Ubers can be poor too.
I hardly ever use them, and don't want to, especially if it involves driving on a motorway where most of the drivers don't seem to understand the concept of safe following distance...
Thats called Kiwi driving
Kiwis often don't follow safe distance, but uber drivers take the cake
I do seem to recall the credit card reader being broken suspiciously frequently.
Departure of top brass at BNZ is interesting. No replacement as yet suggests this was not known in advance. Of any business in NZ at the moment, the banks are a protected species and seem to be making out like bandits with little liability on the line. Given that the taxpayer is ultimately on the hook if they screw up, I feel that salaries at the upper end of the scale should be reined in.
Someone obviously knows something in advance. What will come out in the next few weeks?
it's shady and murky as up in the rafters of the banking world. The Hisco fiasco starring Antonia Watson and Lord Key are testimony to that.
90 day swap now 0.65. Markets well past the fisrt OCR hike and now well on the way to pricing in the 2nd.
NZ/AUD now over 95. Currency markets also convinced.
1yr IR swap mid 1.0375%.
Jeez I hope they hold the rate to show who is boss.
The Aussies own all the banks they are the boss. It must be a fine line but when the writing is on the wall and "They Can" then the banks move with or without the RBNZ.
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