Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None to report here today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank has moved up its 3mth to 1.00%, and its 9 month to 1.30% (the same as its 1yr rate). NZCU Baywide and related branches (NZCU South, Aotearoa CU) have increased their 6mth to 5yr TD rates. Christian Savings also raised ist 1yr rate to 1.50%.
'MORE THAN 'JUST' A REBOUND'
Job advertising levels lifted again in July according to the BNZ/Seek report. Recall, they were already riding very high in June – well clear of the pre-COVID peak that occurred around the middle of 2019. But their 1.7% expansion in July, seasonally adjusted, put them even further north of that mark, to the extent of 27%. That’s far more than “just” a rebound.
A REBOUND & MORE
The latest data on the volume of ready-mixed concrete poured in the June quarter reveals it rose to a new record high for any quarter, and the annual volumes were a new record as well. Q2-2021 concrete poured was +11% higher than in Q2-2019. For the year to June 2021 that was +6.5% higher than the same annual period in 2019. Auckland and Wellington volumes were to new records, but although Christchurch rose marginally, it isn't back to anywhere near the levels seen in the reconstruction peak. These strong overall levels will likely be driving Q3 construction activity and its related contribution to GDP. (However, recall that cement production is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, so it isn't all good. Globally, it is 8% of all emissions. Does any reader have a link to the New Zealand level?)
MORE ON THE AVANTI MORTGAGE SECURITISATION
The $350 mln Avanti RMBS issue has been priced. 80% of it is provisionally rated as AAA by Fitch and will be priced at +100 bps above the 1m BKBM Bid rate (currently about 0.50% pa). The rest is priced at progressively higher margins depending on the credit rating.
HIGH PRICES, NO SYMPATHY
Petrol prices have now risen back to three year highs on both a pump and discounted basis. It isn't really crude oil that is driving these rises, it is more that taxes are high and rising, and the local retailers have boosted their margins back to 2019 levels after the long, unusual dip in 2020/21
LOCKED DOWN, LOCKED OUT
Australian new home sales fell by -20% in July, with declines experienced in almost all major states. With lockdowns in multiple states restricting trade and eroding confidence, it is not surprising that fewer people were able to visit display homes, says their homebuilding industry body. Consumer confidence isn't flash either.
FAST RETREAT
The iron ore price is lower today, and is now down -25% in just 4 weeks.
PRESSURE IN NSW INTENSIFIES
There were another 344 new community cases in NSW today with another 229 not assigned to known clusters, so they are still not getting on top of their outbreak. Victoria is reporting 20 new cases today including 5 new mystery cases and their lockdown is to be extended. Queensland is reporting 4 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 23% of Aussies are fully vaccinated, 45% have now had at least one shot. There were two new case in New Zealand at the border, but still none in the community. New Zealand reports 28.0% of its population having had one vaccine jab, plus 16.5% having had two.
GOLD DIPS FURTHER
Compared to where we were this time yesterday, the gold price is down to US$1732/oz and a decrease of another -US$2/oz so far today. But it is up slightly from the New York close at US$1729/oz and the London fix of US$1729/oz.
EQUITIES STILL IN MODEST SHIFTS
The S&P closed its Tuesday session up +0.1% on Wall Street, just making back Monday's dip. Tokyo has opened today up +0.7%. Hong Kong has opened up +0.5%, but Shanghai has is flat in early trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5% after yesterday's weakness. The NZZ50 Capital Index is up +0.1% in late trade.
SWAP & BONDS RATES RISING
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet and if there are significant ongoing changes we will note them here. They are probably higher. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 0.69%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +1 bp at 1.23%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +7 bps at 2.90%. The New Zealand Govt ten year however is up +9 bps to 1.72% and now above the earlier RBNZ fix of 1.71% (+2 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.35% and up by another +4 bps today with the robust US payrolls data raising expectations the US Fed will taper sooner.
NZ DOLLAR BACK UP A LITTLE
The Kiwi dollar has bounced back today after yesterday's fall, and now at 70.1 USc as the commodity mood improves. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 95.4 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 59.8 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now a touch higher at 73.3, still right in the middle of the ten month 72-74 range.
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BITCOIN DIPS TOO
The bitcoin price is now at US$45,442 and down -1.1 from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 1.7%.
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49 Comments
Definitely, 100%. Especially for a young and skilled Kiwi who wants to get ahead in life, with much better wages and more reasonable housing costs. Who would want to subsidize, with their rent money, some parasitic unproductive specuvestor, or buy into a ridiculously over-inflated NZ housing Ponzi and saddle themselves with a life servitude to an humongous mortgage ?
As a boomer with his own fully paid property this would not apply to me, but if I was young and skilled I would not hesitate a microsecond to get vaccinated ASAP and leave for Australia with next available flight.
Australia has always offered more opportunities but that's only because it's a much bigger economy over 5x bigger. Many people leave the Pacific islands to come to NZ for the same reason. Australia has the same issue their young and bright leaving for more opportunities in the US and UK/Europe. I left myself to seek my fortune ( not Aussy ) but after 3 years and a nice nest egg I came back. The thing we missed most was Kiwi's, we are a unique breed, I love our country and the people in it.
That's an important point. People assume the culture is the same in Aus. There are definite similarities with here but some definite differences too (same goes for UK). What suits one person might not suit another.
I guess what I am saying is that there's more to it than money. Personally, Aus is not for me. Happy to be paid less here.
Seems a lot of folk have forgotten the colour of the skies, when folk were crowded onto the beaches south of Sydney....... I have lived in both, lved both, but wouldn't live there from here on in, if you paid me. Australia is in serious trouble (and I don't rate covid as a problem.....)
But you’ve made your money right? I guess it depends what stage of life you are at. For the youthful ones, staying here for low wages and high living costs barely treading water see Australia as a lifeline. I have no doubt many that have moved over the ditch would have loved to stay here in NZ, my sister and brother-in-law included. They went from renting a shut box house paid for by dead end meat worker jobs to salaries 3x higher and a brand new house.
"Act Party leader David Seymour says the borders should start to be opened next year regardless of how many people are vaccinated, and Fortress New Zealand shouldn't be kept to protect those who choose not to get vaccinated."
Does not care if the health system collapses, and all the vaccine hesitant low paid Pasifika(et al) who keep the country running all die or get long -Covid?
The avuncular veneer is gone revealing the underlying ruthless streak??
And if we only have 40% vaccinated next year because Phizer has some supply issues? Or a ship sinks/plane crashes on it's way to NZ with 2m doses?
We should have a target rate of vaccination backed by science before we open up. It shouldn't be based on a particular date and screw everything else, which is what he is suggesting. That shows either a lack of intelligent thought, a lack of imagination and/or a disbelief that what is happening elsewhere could happen here.
What many Ning-nongs don’t understand; there is far more at risk by continuing on this “fortress NZ path” - especially when many are not bothering to get vaccinated.
We WILL get another outbreak! What happens if we lockdown… more capital/potential is destroyed. Poorer health outcomes, poorer education, higher asset prices leading to higher inflation, worsening supply chains… the list goes on!
CH already covering the govt and MoH backsides. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/08/chris-hipkins-issues….
This is due to the failings that CH is well aware of in border issues that have and are occurring.
Those who don't want to be vaccinated should not be availed of hospital facilities.
If the government had not already lost a lot of confidence in the MoH then the episode at Tauranga should have been the final nail. The maritime authority followed procedure, issued notice of CV19 being located on a vessel, and the MoH blithely ignored it. The government is between a rock and a hard place. If they criticise the MoH public confidence will fail, therefore the government has to take all the cock ups on the chin, and a pretty bruised and swollen chin it is too accordingly. What is really scary though is that government is going to vest and centralise total authority and control of the health system in this proven hopeless and hapless bunch of shiny arses in Wellington
That's not quite correct.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/news/andrew-littles-hospital-pass
Am I the only one who remembers a health sector pre-Gibb reforms? Personally, I can't wait for the 20 DHBs to be shrunk down to 5. Far too many managers trying to justify their jobs, according to my overworked daughter-nurse.
Have you not considered that those drastic problems, at the coal face so to speak, may have their root cause in edicts and deprivations being issued by those working in rooms without windows in Wellington under the yoke of financials imposed by treasury. Having had family that has worked in healthcare, private and government for over fifty years, have a reasonable feel for it. Google Dr Ian Powell and his recent publications through Victoria University, and I wager you will find your post off the mark. And if still not convinced, google Sir Mark Solomon as well, his recent comment on his experiences as deputy chair of the Canterbury DHB, in his words the ministry of incompetence. This is the lot who on the outbreak of CV19 ordered, YES ORDERED, rest homes to stay open to admissions and actually took the trouble to admonish those ( eg Radius, Ryman, Summerset) that acted to isolate. The MoH in Wellington couldn’t organise a bubble in a jacuzzi.
Yes – get the feeling we are being primed for the next outbreak.
More of the same “clever” communicating – they’ve now got our headspace into expecting an outbreak and accepting how it will be handled.
Govt now positions itself as in control even with an outbreak - “see, we told you so”.
Cynical custard cynical, but can only agree. This government that proclaimed and advertised itself to be the epitome of openness and transparency has proved to be the exact opposite. Now we understand why there are 350, REPEAT 350, support staff plotting and planning the next defensive and obfuscating response to the next inevitable failure in performance. Picture an entire floor full of nodding disciples all playing battleships.
The vast majority of people who end up in hospital are those over-50 or with compromised immune systems. As the UK shows hospitalisations cease to be a major issue once you get over about 50% of the population vaccinated. Everyone who wants a vaccine will have the opportunity to have one and then we can reopen the borders.
I loathe this alarmist tosh about hospital wards overflowing, they will not because we will have mitigated that risk within the next couple of months. It's just spreading an irrational level of fear.
Regarding the amount of greenhouse gases that concrete produces, that is obviously not a concern for the Ak council. The houses built down the road from me would be something like 70% roof, 20% concrete and 10% dirt (A really thin layer of dirt placed ie10cm, over gravel over clay, so no good for any garden).
I guess now cement production has ceased in NZ, CO2 emissions have been"externalised"? I was just reading an article about our 4% decline in emissions over the previous year. Very cunning plan to export our emissions to another jurisdiction with a different atmosphere. We really smell of roses now. :-)
Woods isn't up to it...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/power-outages-government-backs-down-on-ge…
What utter obfuscating nonsense. Last night we had the PM in similar fashion, word playing, oh it’s a questionable factor as to whether the pilot infected the crew or the crew infected the pilot. Absolute mealy mouthed & meaningless. The point is dear Prime Minister the vessel arrived with the disease on board and was allowed in, full bloody stop. Who gave who what is immaterial and to borrow from David Seymour, to spout that sort of drivel out is nothing more than taking the piss out of all of us outside the tight little bunker of the present government. How dare she! Another house across the road sold stupid moment!
Lockdown on the cards, the govt PR team is gearing up... https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126038843/covid19-exp…
Got it, thanks for the heads up. The moment a community case is announced I'll throw a bag in the car and hit the road.
As you can see in Australia lockdown doesn't work against the Delta variant and I have no intention of spending months locked at home while the government learns that vaccination is the way forward.
Fossil fuels are a one-off global hit, which we are a good half-way through. In terms of obligations to future generations (or why do we bother being parents and what are Rights?) a litre of fuel should be danm near priceless.
Except we couldn't run our oh-so-precious 'economy' then.
Rock; hard place.
One year ago, for a laugh, I posted here 4 predictions in reply to a gingerninja post about the "new normal". it drew 4 comments (Jonny_Utah thought I was dreamin'):
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/106499/rbnz-help-banks-enable-their…
My list of things that are absolutely impossible in 12 months:
1) A 90%+ effective COVID19 vaccine - corona viruses are just too tenacious and tricky
2) Trump as president - definitely off the table given demographics and his track record
3) Hot war in the South China Sea and/or just Taiwan - nobody is that silly or accident prone
4) Average AKL house price below $750k - I scrunched up my imagination but just could not conjure the image
I was right on most - debatable about the first maybe.
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