Support for ACT is surging at the expense of the country’s major political parties, according to the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll.
ACT is the preferred party for 14% of those surveyed - a 5-point increase from the last poll done in May. It would get a whopping 18 seats in parliament - eight more than at present.
Support for both Labour and National is down 3 points to 43% and 26% respectively.
Support for Labour has fallen to its lowest level since the onset of Covid-19. It would no longer have the support to govern alone and would need the backing of the Greens.
While Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is comfortably ahead in the preferred prime minister ranks at 44%, ACT leader David Seymour is now more popular (at 11%) than National leader Judith Collins and National MPs Christopher Luxon and Simon Bridges put together.
Only 5% of respondents chose Collins as their preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, she told 1 News she isn't going anywhere and plans to remain leader through to the 2023 election.
Here are the numbers:
Preferred party:
Labour: 43% (down 3 points)
National: 26% (down 3 points)
ACT: 14% (up 5 points)
Greens: 8% (no change)
NZ First: 3% (up 2 points)
Māori Party: 2% (no change)
New Conservatives: 1% (no change)
TOP: 1% (down 1 point)
Seats (61 needed to govern):
Labour: 55
Greens: 10
Māori Party: 3
National: 34
ACT: 18
Preferred prime minister:
Jacinda Ardern: 44% (down 4 points)
David Seymour: 11% (up 5 points)
Judith Collins: 5% (down 4 points)
Christopher Luxon: 3%
Simon Bridges: 2%
Colmar Brunton surveyed 1001 people for the poll between September 22 and 26. The last poll was done between May 22 and 26.
118 Comments
National Party needs to find substance and credibility and fast. This has been an extraordinary downfall in only four years. As far as I can see there is no viable candidate presently in parliament to lead the party into the next election, and do better than what they are currently polling. Used to say on here often that National’s greatest problem was they had no viable coalition party. Now that is ACT’s problem.
The government is now on a Runaway Train - the horse has bolted - there is nothing paid-off media can do now to make government look good except divert attention to what the opposition is doing badly.
The runaway train includes housing price disaster, lack of rental properties disaster, emergency housing disaster, MIQ disaster for NZers trying to get home, health infrastructure disaster in being prepared to suppress Delta - lack of icu nurses/beds, lack of rapid testing at home, lack of new drugs to fight Delta etc
Media’s preoccupation with criticising the opposition is all they can do on this runaway train. The opposition is not running the country. Financial support from the government is not a good reason not to address the poor performance of the government. What is it they have successfully delivered on?
"All up, the Government’s own TVNZ was the biggest beneficiary, getting more than $5 million from the package. Stuff Ltd., publisher of this website, followed on $2.37 million, almost equal to rival media company NZME, which got $2.19m."'
Funding from gov to media. More to come. So yes it's not the "Labour Party" (we see your weasel words), it's the government, as controlled by Labour.
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Two payments were made to the NZ legacy media, totaling 55 million tax payer funded dollars. Because, as the PM told us, the media were doing it hard under Covid. But of course, no evidence was tendered to support her statement. The media aren't going to bite the hand that feeds them. "NZ journalism. The best coverage money can buy"
Have you not heard of the team of $55 million? Media in NZ is all paid up, and literally have agreed to conditions in order to access said funds. For example media companies must report favorably on the 'partnership' framing of the Treaty of Waitangi. This in effect stops them criticising iwi control in the new 3 waters reform. Seymour has brought this up in Parliament and even after heated exchanges it has not been reported on. Jacinda refuses to answer what happens to media companies who do not follow funding guidelines. NZCPR.com has some good reading on this issue
all he needs now is a couple of high profile defections -- of some of the better younger national MP's louise Upton maybe chris penk -- chris Bishop would be a great one -- and they would be pretty creditable
overall its 4 points of the left -- whihc during a lockdown with the 1pm presser everyday - is a pretty big swing -- last lockdown Labour was over 50!
Act has stolen votes from National, to me that makes the right weaker not stronger (its almost like two minor parties now). If National were to get enough votes for them and Act to govern, they will need to make a lot of concessions to Act. We would end up with a lot of unpopular free market policies which would probably make both parties unelectable in the following election.
Of course it can all change so quickly, it wasn't long ago Labour were almost unelectable.
Taking into account it's Labour who set the records for the work visa approvals, I don't see an issue voting for Act who are openly saying that's a plan.
Besides if they use Labour's playbook - say one thing pre-election and do the opposite once you're in power - we might even see the lowest immigration levels!
Mouthing words! Whatever happened then to the loquacious Mr Twyford and all that policy pre 2017 regarding the simplicity of the housing problem. Plenty of mouth there then, wasn’t there, not many houses though. Your explanation of that policy trumpeting as opposed to that policy fail would be something to behold indeed. Your whole comment is self defeating, laughably so.
Overall we now have very poor politicians to choose from. I voted for ACT last election because the rest would have been like swallowing a dead rat. Collins is gone burger, she appears to be the only one who cannot see it. For the sake of the party should should step aside rather than losing the next election in epic fashion.
The minister for Oravida will be the one the goes, but the problems lie higher up than her imo.
Peter Goodfellow stood up after the last election and said they'd go away and change.
All they do is come out with more of the same old John Key era policies.
Times have changed and Goodfellow is the first one that needs to go.
They have to start somewhere. Seymour and Van Velden are good candidates but more strength and credibility is needed down the bench. I'm confident that will come.
Many people don't appreciate something until they've lost it. We've lost freedom under this government in the name of safety from a virus. It's been cleverly extracted from us by a smiling, harmless looking socialist. People are now looking to get freedom back for good.
Can you name a right wing leader that didn't do something very similar to Ardern (except they did it after the horse had bolted). The UK for example has had almost twice the lockdown days as us. Even the hillbilly states where you have the "freedom" to carry guns into your local bank branch have had lockdowns as far as I am aware.
Great to see more and more small parties coming to the fore, even though I am likely well left (or radically centre), more choices are great for democracy. We just need a better system for horsetrading after the elections and significantly longer terms so parties think long-term and their policies reflect it. Not what Natbour do and screw everyone as long as GDP rises.
Breaking News:
"The National", that venerable old passenger liner, is listing more than ever as it attempts to reach port in New Zealand. It apparently hit a reef off Collin's Island 700 kilometres South West of Fiji.
We are getting footage back from our reporter on the would-be rescue ship, HMNZS ACT, the Navy's cadet training ship. He's reporting that passengers seem to be running around the top deck of "The National" flailing their arms in complete panic while some male passengers in pin-striped navy suits are entangling themselves in life-boat ropes as they desperately but ineffectually attempt to launch life-boats.
Our on-the-spot reporter says that they have indeed reached "The National" and have taken on board some of those passengers who made it onto the few lifeboats that were successfully launched. It appears that some of "The National" passengers are physically resisting attempts to be rescued by the crew of HMNZS ACT and wish to remain onboard with Captain Peter Goodfellow, who is determined to go down with his ship if it comes to it, although a couple of rescued crewmen are positive he sneaked in disguise into one of the successfully-launched life boats.
We will keep you fully up-to-date as this drama unfolds.
Well, we all have to start somewhere: Comrade Jacinda Ardern
Sounds like a forum to debate real issues with real facts by real people with real brains, so a really good meeting eh? Meanwhile ardern has finally mastered how to place a wooden block on top of another without it falling off - kindys are are great places for learning.
Unfortunately there is unlikely to be any good new for Labour over the next 2 years.
Renters will face ever increasing rents as supply will drop as investors sell their rental properties leading to an increased need for emergency housing.
NZ has inadequate hospital infrastructure and managed isolation facilities to mitigate the risks associated with a suppression strategy for Delta.
Whilst the Pfizer vaccine will provide significant protection against hospitalisation & death, it has had a poor record at preventing Delta infections/symptoms about 6 months after getting the second dose of the vaccine (known as waning effect). Vaccinated people that get infected with Delta (known as a break-through infection) are just as infectious as an unvaccinated person.
This problem means that there is a high risk that the virus will continue to keep circulating in the NZ community and will continue to keep infecting the unvaccinated. Israel is currently going through its 3rd wave because of this problem.
There is a possibility Delta cases will increase in NZ throughout 2022 because of the problems discussed above.
See last page of link below for graph showing waning effect depending on month you were vaccinated. (Link takes 30s to download)
Correct. As rental supply decreases owner occupier supply will increase. As rental supply decreases, renters will be displaced and will be forced into another type of housing such as emergency housing.
Is emergency housing increasing and getting out of control? Yes
Is it forecast to get worse? Yes
Do we have a rental crisis? Yes
You miss the point - if an investor sells, who do they sell to?
And if the dynamics of supply and demand do in fact apply to the housing market, what happens when supply increases? (i.e. investors sell and add to supply?)
Oh that's right, the equilibrium price point falls.
And if the equilibrium price point falls, more FHB's are able to afford houses.
And if more FHB's are able to afford houses, then there are less renters.
And if there are less renters, what happens to the supply and demand of rental properties? Well you have excess supply.
What then happens to rent? Well a new equilibrium price point must be established for rent (downwards).
Thanks - you pretty much covered it.
"a form of racism that is embedded in the laws and regulations of a society or an organization."
Our laws are prejudiced in favour Maori, which is by definition, racism. It may help with your thinking to consider the response if a set of seats were reserved for white people.
Before you start with the "they were here first" argument. Play that same argument through using another example - consider English people of ancient Briton descent demanding a different level of representation in the UK.
Hope that helps Muzled!
More questions for you then npc
Do you agree that Maori in general are in the lower socio-econimic part of society?
Would you agree that NZ as a whole would be better off if we could somehow raise those people into the 'upper deciles'? (for want of a better word?)
Do you think if we abolished Maori seats that Maori would be better off?
Because that's what it comes down to, if we are making the country as a whole better off by having a handful of Maori seats, then isn't that a good thing for the whole country?
Society is structured into tiers (as is the globe). Okay, so target a group by race to lift them up a tier. Then guess what....the lower tier still exits...it's just now filled by other bodies.
So all we are doing is trying to move one race up a tier and another race down.
Are you OK with that?
Perhaps you better explain this to the bottom tiered folks that they are doomed to stay where they are...only chosen races are selected for movement.
New Zealand Statutes - Advanced Search (auckland.ac.nz)
The origins of the Māori seats - New Zealand Parliament (www.parliament.nz)
Prior to the passing of this Act property ownership was a prerequisite for being able to vote. However, because Māori land was owned communally rather than under individual title, Māori did not qualify to vote.
You could argue that there is a section of British society that fits this. Much of the white working class in England were impoverished by the Enclosures Act taking away their common land and then being forced into cotton mills and coal mines during the industrial revolution, which then closed leaving them with nothing. Identity politics is a distraction used by political parties to turn people against each other, it stops the commoners realising it is the rich that are screwing them. Those with power win, regardless of race.
Some ACT policies.
I wonder how many ACT voters are aware of these AND agree with them.
- Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
- Interest back on all student loans
- No Kiwsaver subsidy
- Cancel winter energy payment
- Dump all climate crisis legislation
- no more best start payments for families with new borns
- cut welfare payments
- no tax credits for research and development
- cuts to working for families
- $7b a year cut in public services
- Abolish Maori seats
- Abolish Human Rights Commission
Glad you mentioned policy.
Question - Do you beleive that David Seymour has any interest in the lower socio-econimic population of NZ?
Yes or No answer please.
Keep in mind his policies before you answer that.
- Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
- Cancel winter energy payment
- cut welfare payments
- cuts to working for families
- Abolish Human Rights Commission
I voted labour at the last two elections as I wanted to see a reduction in child poverty and improved housing affordability. I was concerned that we were becoming a divided society of the haves and have nots. Under Labour child poverty has increased, and houses are at record prices. Their policies are also increasing social division. There is no vision for a better future, just raking over the past and hiding from the rest of the world.
I am tempted to give Act a go. Perhaps their solutions might work better, it surely couldn't be any worse than what we have now.
Might be worth checking ACT policy on the house front WH.
- Foreign investment should be restricted only if an investment threatens national security.
There's only one way house prices are going if ACT get into the hot seat.
I think every labour voter will agree with your comments on child poverty and house prices, but David Seymour is a John Key on steroids when it comes to fixing any social type issues. Remember John Key, they guy who grew up in a state house, fat lot of good that did the bottom half of society when he got in power.
Definitely better the devil you know there.
"Definitely better the devil you know there."
Prior to their election were you aware they they planned to ban oil exploration? Mates & Dates, He Puapua and iwi getting a deciding vote on 3 waters and health for the entire country?
I wonder what their next term in office will bring.
I support the above except:
- Cutting minimum wage - NZ is too expensive to live in, presently
- Cutting welfare payments - as above. And I have friends on Supported Living Payment, for valid reasons, including one who was abused in state care (understandably has PTSD)
- Abolish Maori seats - the treaty wasn't honoured by the British Empire and the poms have long since left us to pick up the pieces
- Kiwisaver subsidy - we need to keep encouraging a culture of investment outside of residential property
I'm in two minds about the Human Rights Commission, but I think some of the concepts from various social media fads should be outside their remit.
I definitely disagree with ACT on foreign investment. All foreign investment should be treated as a matter of national security.
You need to employ some second order thinking. NZ is expensive to live in partly due to a heavy tax and regulation burden. I don't think welfare benefits should (or would) be cut for those incapable of working. It should be cut for those capable of working but don't because welfare is too comfortable.
Residential property is expensive due to lack of supply. The market is not free.We have a lack of supply due government legislation, bureaucracy and red-tape surrounding land use.
NZ is expensive to live in partly due to a heavy tax and regulation burden
Not so much. Have you spent any time in Europe? There's quite a few countries with higher tax and regulations, that are far cheaper in terms of groceries, energy as well as housing. I think a lot of this is due to the lack of economies of scale here and NZers passivity around oligopolies & duopolies.
Depends what welfare you're talking about: unemployment & disability benefits are far from comfortable, from what I've observed. Corporate welfare needs to be removed entirely, which is why I agree with obliterating R&D credits.
Residential property is partly expensive due to lack of supply, but also expensive due to NZers cultural obsession with owning a house (typically standalone with a section) as well as seeing them as the primary method of investment. Again, with passivity in accepting that amongst the general populace....hence why Labour gets away with it in the polls. The apathy in this country does my head in, most days.
I voted for Labour to stop a Labour-Greens coalition. I knew there was a risk in giving total control to the Labour party without the NZ First handbrake. The move to the right would indicate the team of five million is not happy. They should personality test political candidates, so we are subjected less to the psychology of the dark triad. It comprises the personality traits of narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy.
I like Seymour too, but I am not convinced his ideas ("free market, free market, free market, and did I say free market") are particularly fresh.
It just shows how important the leader of the party is. I doubt many are voting for Act, they are voting for Seymour. Put someone with his charisma but more centre right in charge of National and it would turn the party around. But who?
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