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ACT shoots up in poll at the expense of Labour and National; Seymour more popular than Collins, Luxon and Bridges combined

ACT shoots up in poll at the expense of Labour and National; Seymour more popular than Collins, Luxon and Bridges combined

Support for ACT is surging at the expense of the country’s major political parties, according to the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll.

ACT is the preferred party for 14% of those surveyed - a 5-point increase from the last poll done in May. It would get a whopping 18 seats in parliament - eight more than at present. 

Support for both Labour and National is down 3 points to 43% and 26% respectively. 

Support for Labour has fallen to its lowest level since the onset of Covid-19. It would no longer have the support to govern alone and would need the backing of the Greens.

While Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is comfortably ahead in the preferred prime minister ranks at 44%, ACT leader David Seymour is now more popular (at 11%) than National leader Judith Collins and National MPs Christopher Luxon and Simon Bridges put together.

Only 5% of respondents chose Collins as their preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, she told 1 News she isn't going anywhere and plans to remain leader through to the 2023 election. 

Here are the numbers:

Preferred party:

Labour: 43% (down 3 points)
National: 26% (down 3 points)
ACT: 14% (up 5 points)
Greens: 8% (no change)
NZ First: 3% (up 2 points)
Māori Party: 2% (no change)
New Conservatives: 1% (no change)
TOP: 1% (down 1 point)

Seats (61 needed to govern):

Labour: 55
Greens: 10
Māori Party: 3
National: 34
ACT: 18

Preferred prime minister:

Jacinda Ardern: 44% (down 4 points)
David Seymour: 11% (up 5 points)
Judith Collins: 5% (down 4 points)
Christopher Luxon: 3%
Simon Bridges: 2%

Colmar Brunton surveyed 1001 people for the poll between September 22 and 26. The last poll was done between May 22 and 26.

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118 Comments

National Party needs to  find substance and credibility and fast. This has been an extraordinary downfall in only four years. As far as I can see there is no viable candidate presently in parliament to lead the party into the next election, and do better than what they are currently polling. Used to say on here often that National’s greatest problem was they had no viable coalition party. Now that is ACT’s problem.

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11

ACTs problem will be do they go into coalition with Labour if National don't make the cut. Good problem to have.

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1

Not quite. Labour will be comfortable enough tucked in with the Greens. In fact that will provide quite some opportunity to introduce and legislate, radically, under the guise of coalition necessity.

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5

Acts proplem would be they'd have to put the 18th person on their party list into parliament..   Is #18 on their list capable of being left un minded for 15mins, or will they set the couch on fire? 

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12

The same comments were made following the previous election and Seymour has managed his team well, better than the other major parties in fact.  

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3

The government is now on a Runaway Train - the horse has bolted - there is nothing paid-off media can do now to make government look good except divert attention to what the opposition is doing badly.

The runaway train includes housing price disaster, lack of rental properties disaster, emergency housing disaster, MIQ disaster for NZers trying to get home, health infrastructure disaster in being prepared to suppress Delta - lack of icu nurses/beds, lack of rapid testing at home, lack of new drugs to fight Delta etc

Media’s preoccupation with criticising the opposition is all they can do on this runaway train. The opposition is not running the country. Financial support from the government is not a good reason not to address the poor performance of the government.  What is it they have successfully delivered on?

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9

You are suggesting the Labour party has made payments to the media to garner good coverage?  That's quite an extra-ordinary claim!  Evidence?

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1

The NZME and MediaWorks cheques must have gotten lost in the mail.

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7

"All up, the Government’s own TVNZ was the biggest beneficiary, getting more than $5 million from the package. Stuff Ltd., publisher of this website, followed on $2.37 million, almost equal to rival media company NZME, which got $2.19m."'

Funding from gov to media. More to come. So yes it's not the "Labour Party" (we see your weasel words), it's the government, as controlled by Labour.

 

 

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13

Two payments were made to the NZ legacy media, totaling 55 million tax payer funded dollars. Because, as the PM told us, the media were doing it hard under Covid. But of course, no evidence was tendered to support her statement. The media aren't going to bite the hand that feeds them. "NZ journalism. The best coverage money can buy" 

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Yip and NZME - read NewstalkZB & NZ Herald are an anomaly - just a very large anomaly

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Have you not heard of the team of $55 million? Media in NZ is all paid up, and literally have agreed to conditions in order to access said funds. For example media companies must report favorably on the 'partnership' framing of the Treaty of Waitangi. This in effect stops them criticising iwi control in the new 3 waters reform. Seymour has brought this up in Parliament and even after heated exchanges it has not been reported on. Jacinda refuses to answer what happens to media companies who do not follow funding guidelines. NZCPR.com has some good reading on this issue

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11

Why did the horse bolt from the train?

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all he needs now is a couple of high profile defections --   of some of the better younger national MP's  louise Upton maybe chris penk  --  chris Bishop would be a great one -- and they would be pretty creditable 

overall its 4 points of the left --   whihc during a lockdown with the 1pm presser everyday -  is a pretty big swing --  last lockdown Labour was over 50! 

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5

It's time for youngsters in National to act!

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6

You want open immigration, tap open full bore with a high pressure pump behind it, vote ACT. You want a worse housing crisis than National or Labour. Vote ACT. Mouthing words that a lot of people agree with doesn't make policies.

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21

At least they would screw over the country the old fashioned way without all the woke theatre and lying.

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41

Brilliant comment. Upvoted.

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1

seems to me you are panicking . 

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4

Act has stolen votes from National, to me that makes the right weaker not stronger (its almost like two minor parties now). If National were to get enough votes for them and Act to govern, they will need to make a lot of concessions to Act. We would end up with a lot of unpopular free market policies which would probably make both parties unelectable in the following election. 

Of course it can all change so quickly, it wasn't long ago Labour were almost unelectable. 

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3

ACT also stole NZ First votes.

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Taking into account it's Labour who set the records for the work visa approvals, I don't see an issue voting for Act who are openly saying that's a plan. 

Besides if they use Labour's playbook - say one thing pre-election and do the opposite once you're in power - we might even see the lowest immigration levels!

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Mouthing words! Whatever happened then to the loquacious Mr Twyford and all that policy pre 2017 regarding the simplicity of the housing problem. Plenty of mouth there then, wasn’t there, not many houses though. Your explanation of that policy trumpeting as opposed to that policy fail would be something to behold indeed. Your whole comment is self defeating, laughably so.

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Sounds like you are already scared. Harden up. The Country has had enough of Labour

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Seems the cities have not 

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And here is the ACT principle on foreign ownership -

  1. Foreign investment should be restricted only if an investment threatens national security.

House prices anyone?

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And the evidence for those assertions with proof is .............................................................!

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Overall we now have very poor politicians to choose from. I voted for ACT last election because the rest would have been like swallowing a dead rat. Collins is gone burger, she appears to be the only one who cannot see it. For the sake of the party should should step aside rather than losing the next election in epic fashion.

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11

The minister for Oravida will be the one the goes, but the problems lie higher up than her imo.

Peter Goodfellow stood up after the last election and said they'd go away and change.

All they do is come out with more of the same old John Key era policies.  

Times have changed and Goodfellow is the first one that needs to go.

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12

Spot on Muz.

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There are votes galore if they would severely restrict immigration and commit to some strong environmental protection. I cant understand why they are so far behind on such issues of concern.  

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rastus, the reason is probably because a big chunk of the voters that haven't defected to ACT are farmers.

But I agree with you, it's low hanging fruit for any political party.

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David Seymour, the underdog no longer!

I enjoy his quirky style. But what matters is he has pragmatic solutions to problems.

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Not surprised at the poll numbers, he gets more air time than Collins and when he opens his mouth solutions and ideas come out. From the rest of them its just criticism from Collins and "I will get back to you" from JA

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Act sythoning votes off national doesn't mean anything.

The elephant in the room is greens sythoning votes off Labour. If Labour need the greens to form a govt we may get that long overdue tax on property. I don't think James Shaw is a Patsy. 

 

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Only if a special school needs special funding, perhaps then.

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11

Can anyone name a Act MP besides Seymour? no googling. 

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Rodney Hide :)

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Dancing with the stars has a lot to answer for. 

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Brooke van Velden, believe she has posted an article or two here. 

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Nicole McKKKee - she lurrrvves guns

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The greens defector...no I can’t remember her name 

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Mark Cameron, Got to have someone repping the rural sector in amongst all those suits. Useless bureaucrats have no idea how the real world works.  

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Such a glowing review of Mark Cameron. he must have learnt heaps since I saw him in action in the last election campaign.

Or  ...

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Useless bureaucrats have no idea how anything works. there fixed that for you.  

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Donna Lynn Awatere Huata

David Garrett 

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Could we be looking at a Labour government with National as coalition partner?

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As far as I'm concerned, ACT is not much different to a university club. They would be abysmal is any form of government leadership. That's why they're happy to be a bit player. 

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11

They have to start somewhere. Seymour and Van Velden are good candidates but more strength and credibility is needed down the bench. I'm confident that will come.

Many people don't appreciate something until they've lost it. We've lost freedom under this government in the name of safety from a virus. It's been cleverly extracted from us by a smiling, harmless looking socialist. People are now looking to get freedom back for good.

 

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Can you name a right wing leader that didn't do something very similar to Ardern (except they did it after the horse had bolted). The UK for example has had almost twice the lockdown days as us. Even the hillbilly states where you have the "freedom" to carry guns into your local bank branch have had lockdowns as far as I am aware. 

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Great to see more and more small parties coming to the fore, even though I am likely well left (or radically centre), more choices are great for democracy. We just need a better system for horsetrading after the elections and significantly longer terms so parties think long-term and their policies reflect it. Not what Natbour do and screw everyone as long as GDP rises.

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Breaking News: 

"The National", that venerable old passenger liner, is listing more than ever as it attempts to reach port in New Zealand. It apparently hit a reef off Collin's Island 700 kilometres South West of Fiji.

We are getting footage back from our reporter on the would-be rescue ship, HMNZS ACT, the Navy's cadet training ship.  He's reporting that passengers seem to be running around the top deck of "The National" flailing their arms in complete panic while some male passengers in pin-striped navy suits are entangling themselves in life-boat ropes as they desperately but ineffectually attempt to launch life-boats.

Our on-the-spot  reporter says that they have indeed reached "The National" and have taken on board some of those passengers who made it onto the few lifeboats that were successfully launched.  It appears that some of "The National" passengers are physically resisting attempts to be rescued by the crew of HMNZS ACT and wish to remain onboard with Captain Peter Goodfellow, who is determined to go down with his ship if it comes to it, although a couple of rescued crewmen are positive he sneaked in disguise into one of the successfully-launched life boats.

We will keep you fully up-to-date as this drama unfolds.

 

 

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9

Went to an ACT meeting. It was the gun lobby + anti-EV crowd + climate change skeptics all in one room. 

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16

Well, we all have to start somewhere: Comrade Jacinda Ardern

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11

I had a similar experience. They're definitely pro-gun and freedom in general. On climate change, it was a reluctant acceptance that yes it's probably happening, but a belief that it was being used to hamstring Western economies. 

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I understand they're also pro-immigration? That's not what is wanted or needed.

Some of Seymour's comments/policies are common sense and pragmatic, others are very much not!

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6

Immigration is good (I'm an immigrant so obviously I'm going to say that..!).

However it needs to be controlled within what the country can accomodate and what we need. One can be an Act support without total alignment with their policy set.

 

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I'm happy enough with pro-gun for responsible owners. This govt has attacked these owners while the gangs run riot. You might be glad your neighbour is a hunter one day!

 

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They used to be totally against the freedom to build more apartments in Epsom and to send your kids to the local public school there. As usual with the right they only want to protect the freedoms that suit them. 

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Sounds like a forum to debate real issues with real facts by real people with real brains, so a really good meeting eh? Meanwhile ardern has finally mastered how to place a wooden block on top of another without it falling off - kindys are are great places for learning.

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Hope you got out safely 😊

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Unfortunately there is unlikely to be any good new for Labour over the next 2 years.

Renters will face ever increasing rents as supply will drop as investors sell their rental properties leading to an increased need for emergency housing.

NZ has inadequate hospital infrastructure and managed isolation facilities to mitigate the risks associated with a suppression strategy for Delta.

Whilst the Pfizer vaccine will provide significant protection against hospitalisation & death, it has had a poor record at preventing Delta infections/symptoms about 6 months after getting the second dose of the vaccine  (known as waning effect).  Vaccinated people that get infected with Delta (known as a break-through infection) are just as infectious as an unvaccinated person.  

This problem means that there is a high risk that the virus will continue to keep circulating in the NZ community and will continue to keep infecting the unvaccinated.  Israel is currently going through its 3rd wave because of this problem.

There is a possibility Delta cases will increase in NZ throughout 2022 because of the problems discussed above.

See last page of link below for graph showing waning effect depending on month you were vaccinated. (Link takes 30s to download)

https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vaccine-efficacy-safety-follow-up-committee/he/files_publications_corona_two-dose-vaccination-data.pdf

 

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Who will the investors sell their houses to? Or do they evaporate upon sale and as such don’t not change the supply/demand dynamics of the rental and owner occupier markets?

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Correct.  As rental supply decreases owner occupier supply will increase.  As rental supply decreases, renters will be displaced and will be forced into another type of housing such as emergency housing.

Is emergency housing increasing and getting out of control? Yes

Is it forecast to get worse? Yes 

Do we have a rental crisis? Yes

 

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You miss the point - if an investor sells, who do they sell to?

And if the dynamics of supply and demand do in fact apply to the housing market, what happens when supply increases? (i.e. investors sell and add to supply?)

Oh that's right, the equilibrium price point falls.

And if the equilibrium price point falls, more FHB's are able to afford houses.

And if more FHB's are able to afford houses, then there are less renters.

And if there are less renters, what happens to the supply and demand of rental properties? Well you have excess supply.

What then happens to rent? Well a new equilibrium price point must be established for rent (downwards).

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-

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Theorectically you are correct but reality does not always oblige and the future direction is down a twisty, icy road thats fogbound with deep ditches either side.

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Tony, didn’t you get the memo from Seymour? I thought we were all done with the living in fear routine 🤷‍♂️

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Lifelong labour voter here. 
 

Would be voting Act if the election were tomorrow. 
 

also why do the Maori party get 3 seats when they are at 2%?

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Good for you. I switched from National to Act some time ago. The party is a little rough around the edges, but as support grows the quality of candidates will too.

On Maori seats, the answer is ironically systemic racism.

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Can you explain to me how systemic racism is how the Maori party get 3 seats please npc?

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Maori Electorates. Same reason any party can get MPs into Parliament below the 5% threshold, by winning an Electorate. Except that there are a bunch of special electorates only for Maori, so they are guaranteed representation in Parliament.

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Thanks - you pretty much covered it.

"a form of racism that is embedded in the laws and regulations of a society or an organization."

Our laws are prejudiced in favour Maori, which is by definition, racism. It may help with your thinking to consider the response if a set of seats were reserved for white people.

Before you start with the "they were here first" argument. Play that same argument through using another example - consider English people of ancient Briton descent demanding a different level of representation in the UK.

Hope that helps Muzled!

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15

Our laws are prejudiced in favour Maori

I hope you never have to leave your comfortable little cocoon.

 

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You know nothing about me or my circumstances. If you have a counter argument, present it. Ad-hominem doesn't count.

 

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More questions for you then npc

Do you agree that Maori in general are in the lower socio-econimic part of society?

Would you agree that NZ as a whole would be better off if we could somehow raise those people into the 'upper deciles'? (for want of a better word?)

Do you think if we abolished Maori seats that Maori would be better off?

Because that's what it comes down to, if we are making the country as a whole better off by having a handful of Maori seats, then isn't that a good thing for the whole country?

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Maori should be given the dignity of being treated the same as all other citizens of New Zealand. I want all citizens of New Zealand to be better off.

I do not indulge in the soft bigotry of low expectations, as is common on the left.

 

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12

You want them to reproduce until they get to more than 50% of the population so they can have a vote worth using like us whities did? 

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Sounds good to me. We have a lot of land and resources here, a growing population is a good thing. I don't mind what race, the more diverse the better I reckon.

 

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Society is structured into tiers (as is the globe). Okay, so target a group by race to lift them up a tier. Then guess what....the lower tier still exits...it's just now filled by other bodies.

So all we are doing is trying to move one race up a tier and another race down.

Are you OK with that?

Perhaps you better explain this to the bottom tiered folks that they are doomed to stay where they are...only chosen races are selected for movement.

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You miss out that the proportion of Maori in Parliament far exceeds the proportion of Maori in the general population. There is no white ceiling for them to break through

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Another racist who has never heard of Te Tiriti

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More ad-hominem. 

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Māori seats were introduced at a time when most Māori were living rurally at marae site and didn't have a street address, so that was the only way they could vote. It has nothing to do with the treaty.

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New Zealand Statutes - Advanced Search (auckland.ac.nz)

The origins of the Māori seats - New Zealand Parliament (www.parliament.nz)

Prior to the passing of this Act property ownership was a prerequisite for being able to vote. However, because Māori land was owned communally rather than under individual title, Māori did not qualify to vote.

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Maybe if English people were a 15% minority in England and hence had almost no say in the government it would make sense to give them some special seats. 

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You could argue that there is a section of British society that fits this. Much of the white working class in England were impoverished by the Enclosures Act taking away their common land and then being forced into cotton mills and coal mines during the industrial revolution, which then closed leaving them with nothing. Identity politics is a distraction used by political parties to turn people against each other, it stops the commoners realising it is the rich that are screwing them. Those with power win, regardless of race.

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Some ACT policies.

I wonder how many ACT voters are aware of these AND agree with them.

  • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
  • Interest back on all student loans
  • No Kiwsaver subsidy
  • Cancel winter energy payment
  • Dump all climate crisis legislation
  • no more best start payments for families with new borns
  • cut welfare payments
  • no tax credits for research and development
  • cuts to working for families
  • $7b a year cut in public services
  • Abolish Maori seats
  • Abolish Human Rights Commission
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Excellent set of policies. Emphasis on personal responsibility, freedom, small government and equality.

 

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11

You sound like you'll fit in with ACT nicely npc.  

You'll be the only one that thinks David Seymour wants anything to do with equality though.

 

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Vague attacks like "wants anything to do with equality" don't add to the discourse. Critique the policy, which of them doesn't help with equality? Be sure not to confuse equality with equity.

 

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Glad you mentioned policy.

Question - Do you beleive that David Seymour has any interest in the lower socio-econimic population of NZ?

Yes or No answer please.

Keep in mind his policies before you answer that.

  • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
  • Cancel winter energy payment
  • cut welfare payments
  • cuts to working for families
  • Abolish Human Rights Commission
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Yes.

People in lower socioeconomic will benefit from a lower tax burden, healthier economy, more open job market and cheaper goods. It's good to encourage personal responsibility over dependency on the state.

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I take it you're excluding the last 40 odd years from that opinion?

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I voted labour at the last two elections as I wanted to see a reduction in child poverty and improved housing affordability. I was concerned that we were becoming a divided society of the haves and have nots. Under Labour child poverty has increased, and houses are at record prices. Their policies are also increasing social division. There is no vision for a better future, just raking over the past and hiding from the rest of the world.

I am tempted to give Act a go. Perhaps their solutions might work better, it surely couldn't be any worse than what we have now. 

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11

Might be worth checking ACT policy on the house front WH.

  1. Foreign investment should be restricted only if an investment threatens national security.

There's only one way house prices are going if ACT get into the hot seat.

I think every labour voter will agree with your comments on child poverty and house prices, but David Seymour is a John Key on steroids when it comes to fixing any social type issues.   Remember John Key, they guy who grew up in a state house, fat lot of good that did the bottom half of society when he got in power.

Definitely better the devil you know there.

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"Definitely better the devil you know there."

Prior to their election were you aware they they planned to ban oil exploration?  Mates & Dates, He Puapua and iwi getting a deciding vote on 3 waters and health for the entire country?

I wonder what their next term in office will bring.

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I support the above except:

  • Cutting minimum wage - NZ is too expensive to live in, presently
  • Cutting welfare payments - as above. And I have friends on Supported Living Payment, for valid reasons, including one who was abused in state care (understandably has PTSD)
  • Abolish Maori seats - the treaty wasn't honoured by the British Empire and the poms have long since left us to pick up the pieces
  • Kiwisaver subsidy - we need to keep encouraging a culture of investment outside of residential property

I'm in two minds about the Human Rights Commission, but I think some of the concepts from various social media fads should be outside their remit.

I definitely disagree with ACT on foreign investment. All foreign investment should be treated as a matter of national security.

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You need to employ some second order thinking. NZ is expensive to live in partly due to a heavy tax and regulation burden. I don't think welfare benefits should (or would) be cut for those incapable of working. It should be cut for those capable of working but don't because welfare is too comfortable.

Residential property is expensive due to lack of supply. The market is not free.We have a lack of supply due government legislation, bureaucracy and red-tape surrounding land use. 

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NZ is expensive to live in partly due to a heavy tax and regulation burden

Not so much. Have you spent any time in Europe? There's quite a few countries with higher tax and regulations, that are far cheaper in terms of groceries, energy as well as housing. I think a lot of this is due to the lack of economies of scale here and NZers passivity around oligopolies & duopolies. 

Depends what welfare you're talking about: unemployment & disability benefits are far from comfortable, from what I've observed. Corporate welfare needs to be removed entirely, which is why I agree with obliterating R&D credits.

Residential property is partly expensive due to lack of supply, but also expensive due to NZers cultural obsession with owning a house (typically standalone with a section) as well as seeing them as the primary method of investment. Again, with passivity in accepting that amongst the general populace....hence why Labour gets away with it in the polls. The apathy in this country does my head in, most days.

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On comparing ACT with Labour and the Greens, it occurs to me that there may be room for a Centrist party in NZ politics. Perhaps something National could consider, rather than using Trumpian insults and flirting with the Christian right. 

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They are assuming they win the electorate seat which is a big assumption 

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Because Mawree are special people who always get preference due to colonialism.

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There is a saying : In the land of blind persons, the one-eyed person is the King/Queen.

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Wait till Judith is rolled and Simon comes back as leader of National. ACT will deflate fast and David will become an appendage of National again.

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Pretty desperate if you think Simon is the answer to anything. Hopefully they have learnt not to shoot themselves in the foot twice, like they did with Bill English.

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There is a generation thing too. David Seymour is a millennial, Jacinda is also a  millennial. They both know how to attract us millennial voters. Now close your eyes and think about National. 

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I thought Jacinda was Gen X? I know that I'm supposedly Gen X, and I'm only one year older than her.

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I was thinking that the other day . Even 3 term "stars"like John key and Helen Clark would probably struggle to get elected today.

One big change that may have gone unnoticed , young people are voting more.   

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When you say 'young' do you mean those 56 and under? i.e. not boomers

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With Labour on 43% and falling and the state National is in, guess whose going to be back in government in 2023? It smells like it will be 2017 all over again. Labour's performance this year had been so woeful it's almost written WP's script for him.

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His recent appearance on media both mainstream and social is no coincidence 

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"With Labour on 43% and falling and the state National is in, guess whose going to be back in government in 2023?"

The Greens.

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I voted for Labour to stop a Labour-Greens coalition.  I knew there was a risk in giving total control to the Labour party without the NZ First handbrake.  The move to the right would indicate the team of five million is not happy.  They should personality test political candidates, so we are subjected less to the psychology of the dark triad.  It comprises the personality traits of narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy.

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Good.  I like Seymour as he brings fresh ideas and perspectives to a dying political model with Labor & National.

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I like Seymour too, but I am not convinced his ideas ("free market, free market, free market, and did I say free market") are particularly fresh. 

It just shows how important the leader of the party is. I doubt many are voting for Act, they are voting for Seymour. Put someone with his charisma but more centre right in charge of National and it would turn the party around. But who?

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Disaffected Natanic survivors scrabbling for a lifeboat that's full of loonies 

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