Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised its floating rate today, but only by +15 bps. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None today here.
PUMP PRICES NEAR RECORD HIGHS
Petrol prices are rising at the pump, even after discounts. The latest MBIE monitoring shows them near record-high levels, only beaten by the October 2018 levels when crude oil prices peaked last. This time it isn't really crude prices doing the cost damage. It is the combination of record high taxes (a self-imposed cost) plus much higher oil company refining/distribution/marketing components (themselves driven by fast-sinking demand). Crude oil prices themselves are only back to their average over the past 17 years and are not the driver of the near record-high pump prices.
GLOBAL DEMAND COMING SOON
Westpac is pointing out that the NZGB linkers are to be included in the preeminent global inflation-linked bond index starting in April 2022. That is expected to increase both the liquidity and the demand for this type of NZGB bond.
VISA MOVES INTO BNPL TERRITORY
In Australia, Visa, ANZ and Quest are now offering a Buy Now, Pay Later service to ANZ Visa card holders during checkout and without any extra steps. This competes directly with AfterPay, and other BNPL schemes. It also comes well after CBA launched the Klarna solution in Australia. (BNPL payment channels are attractive because they are basically unregulated.)
FROM REGULATOR TO INVESTOR
New Zealand Growth Capital Partners today announced the appointment of Rob Everett as the Crown-owned company’s new chief executive. Everett is the soon-to-be departing FMA boss. NZGCP has two investment funds. The Aspire NZ Seed Fund is an evergreen fund that invests directly into early-stage Kiwi tech start-ups that are at the seed and angel investment stage. Its focus is on the software, agri-tech, health-tech and deep-tech sectors. The Elevate NZ Venture Fund is a $300m fund of funds that looks to fill the capital gap for high-growth New Zealand businesses at the Series A and B fundraising stage by helping to develop New Zealand’s venture sector. Managed by NZGCP, with oversight from the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, it invests directly into venture capital firms and, to date, has announced investments into six funds.
RBNZ CFO MIKE WOLYNCEWICZ LEAVING
Reserve Bank chief financial officer Mike Wolyncewicz is to leave next May after 21 years at the central bank. His departure comes with the Reserve Bank restructuring its leadership team and seeking general managers of 1) risk, compliance and legal services, plus 2) information and data analytics. It's also seeking general managers for its money group, digital solutions and security, and thirdly, finance and commercial operations.
BETTER, BUT STILL TRENDING LOWER
In China, their services sector is expanding again, and at a moderate pace, and bouncing back from a weak August. At least, that is according to the private Caixin services PMI released today. Still, it can't hide the general softer trend evident in 2021.
PANDEMIC PRESSURE SHIFTED
Staying in Australia, the explosion of Delta cases in Victoria has risen to 1838 cases reported there today in a relentless rise. There are now 15,074 active cases in the state. In NSW there were another 646 new community cases reported today with another 518 not assigned to known clusters. They now have 7,589 active locally acquired cases which is lower, but they had 11 deaths yesterday, now featuring younger patients. Queensland is now reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 40 new cases, including babies. Overall in Australia, more than 59% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 22% have now had one shot so far. There were three new cases in New Zealand at the border, and 44 more in the community So far, 53% of eligible Kiwis now have both shots, another 28% the initial shot. So far the New Zealand vaccination effort is faltering slightly (80.7% of Kiwis nationally and rising more slowly) and the Australian is also slowing with theirs now up at 81.0%.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED AGAIN
Compared to where this time yesterday, the gold price is down -US$4 at US$1758/oz in early Asian trade. But that is up +US$3 from where the New York market finished earlier in the day, and down -US$4 from the London fix.
EQUITIES POSITIVE
The S&P500 ended its Thursday session up +0.8% at the end on Wall Street but things fell away at the end somewhat. The Tokyo market opened today up a very strong +2.0%. Hong Kong is up +0.9% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.8% on its re-opening after its week-long holiday. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in early afternoon trade and heading for a +1.9% weekly gain. The NZX50 is up +0.1% in late trade here but is heading for a -1.2% retreat for the week.
SWAP & BONDS RATES MIXED
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They probably pivoted in a steepening pattern. We will update this if there are significantly different changes when the end-of-day data comes through. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.66%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.65% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.92% and up +3 bps. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.05%, (+4 bps) and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for that rate at 2.02% (+2 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.59% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is firmer at 69.5 USc today. Against the Aussie we are down to just under 94.9 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 60.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now up at 73.2 and still in the middle of the 72-74 range we have been in for most of the past eleven months.
Appreciate this coverage? Support us in lockdown and go ad-free. Find out how.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$54,199 and dipping a minor -0.1% below where we were this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep ahead of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
70 Comments
... it ain't that we're thickerer than youse high faluting folks fermenting Covid in the north ... it's just that our team of 1 million is thick enuff to believe Jacinda's " be kind " mantra , and to take pity on you bug infested unteam of 4 million up in Horrorterrorower ... ....
Vaccines do slow the case numbers quite dramatically, I'm looking at Australia and they have had 1000ish cases a day for weeks now so it has not exploded. Hard to say where it will flatten out for NZ, it depends on how long we get locked up for. If we dumped all the lockdowns tomorrow I would expect to see a rise to a few hundred cases a day and then just sit there. The cost to the country under lockdowns can no longer be justified.
I think Australia's a pretty good proxy for what we'll see now that, let's face it, we've given up on 'zero Covid'. We do have the advantage of a more dispersed population.
So Aus at approx. 1000 new cases p/d, at 5x our population = maybe we should expect c.200 cases p/d in a few weeks.
I think Jacinda being in Kawerau right now to personally berate people for not being vaccinated is actually a pretty good use of her time.
Putting aside mandates and any spiritual issues I'll say this:
I was booked in to get my first vaccine on Monday, I cancelled:
Yes Covid is a pandemic, but it's not the Spanish Flu, granted, cold comfort if you've lost someone. I was thinking Labour were handling Covid in a balanced way - I'm rapidly changing my mind.
The death rate of Covid is probably between 0.25% - 0.7%.
Yet the response has been massive, to the point that in January the Chinese, WHO, whoever.. have upload/sent digital instructions/code to vaccine companies, to insert into lipid-nanoparticles, to infiltrate human cells, to run said code [produce spike protein(s)], to create an immune response. Then it's been injected into hundreds-of-millions - basically what happened??
Given these vaccines efficacy wanes dramatically after 6months, wouldn't it be better to quarantine ACTUAL sick people and vaccinate the vulnerable (if the science is to be believed) - then focus on promoting healthy lifestyles for the general population.. say telling them to get fresh air, sunshine, exercise and eat healthy? Otherwise aren't you just injecting people forever?
Also, there has been cases (don't know how common) where vaccinated people have caught Covid and their immune systems have gone into over-drive and resulted in their death. There is a name for it, someone might know.
As far as I know there is no vaccine compensation/damages court in NZ, unlike in America.
I've also considered:
- Thousands have died due to reactions this the vaccine.
- Many have had bad reactions
- Long term effects aren't known
- The NZ government seem to be getting all their marching orders from over-seas (politicized nations)
- NZ seems to ONLY rely on overseas research?
I don't feel right or comfortable about getting this vaccine. Others do. I don't want to spread misinformation or hinder the MOH. Right or wrong the Main-Stream-Media and Government have undertaken a MASSIVE propaganda campaign and shutting down of the country.
... amazing , isn't it ... 6 billion doses successfully given , yet still the anti-vaxxers spew their nonsense ....
Here's the thing : if Covid-19 runs rampant through NZ unchecked , our hospitals will not cope , they'll be flooded ... lots of anti-vaxxers risk dying of C19 at home , gasping to breathe ...
... dramatic , yes ... but true ...
I don't want to get into an argument or anything. I won't speak to long Covid.
0.25% - 0.7% - just a few things:
- Endemic-viruses/viruses are said to get less potent over time?
Correct me if I'm wrong
- Treatments for this Corona virus should/are getting better?
- Different approaches, strategies and opening up could/would save lives?
- Some early treatment plans and drugs used during this pandemic could have killed people?
- Deaths caused by/through the vaccine are under reported? Certainly there are no case studies in NZ I've come across
- Long term Covid ?? Long term effects of the vaccine ??
- Is the current model locking us into vaccine dependency?
Will the death rate be 0.25% - 0.7% in NZ? I'm only using 0.25% - 0.7% because that seems to be an accepted pessimistic figure.
I think everyone, vaccinated or unvaccinated is going to get Covid in the coming years.
As I see it, the vaccine will make my first encounter with Covid much less deadly, after that natural immunity will come into play.
According to medsafe, less people have died in the 3 weeks after vaccination than would be expected based on average rates of death.
Assuming you Hopefully [and I wish the best for you, I mean that]:
- Have no side-effects (short or long term)
- When/if you catch Covid your immune-system doesn't over-react
- The vaccine is still providing some efficacy..
I don't know if there is research on natural immunity once vaccinated people contract Covid. Maybe it's better, maybe worse. How will being vaccinated impact people if another kind of corona virus comes along?
They call it "Novel Coronavirus" it's also a "Novel-Vaccine" - the NZ government don't know all the ingredient, yet there is talk of ongoing jabs.
"According to medsafe, less people have died in the 3 weeks after vaccination than would be expected based on average rates of death."
What does that mean? In relation to vaccine deaths, Covid deaths?
I'm doubtful (atm) we can vaccinate our way out of this. Mass vaccination of the HEALTHY population will drag out Covid. Given this isn't the Spanish Flu, I think we're going to see arguments that the vaccination of the healthy population will result in over-all more deaths. I'm not saying that's true, I'm just predicting arguments will be made.
Having had covid gives you some protection.
Getting vaccinated gives you some protection
Having had covid, and being vaccinated gives you more protection again.
You have some strong opinions coupled with a lack of understanding. This is not the Spanish flu, but even with fore warning and modern technology, deaths in some countries have been significant. That shouldn't really still be a point of contention.
There is no silver bullet, but there is a range of tools we can use to minimise human death and suffering, and vaccination is a key component in the most practical way to go about that.
I was in the same boat as you mate. Was not keen to get it.
But if you do a risk reward calculation, getting the vaccine is the clear winner.
6,400,000,000 vaccine doses with like you said, maybe thousands of reactions, compared to 240,000,000 million cases and 4m deaths.
Yes it is very unlikely to kill you if your in decent health, but it can have long term effects.
Some studies have shown that you are actually more susceptible to catching covid once you have been vaxed, but then you get over it faster with less effects and then you will have natural immunity. So eh, im not fussed either way but with actual cases now here in NZ i went and got it.
I still am extremely opposed to any sort of vaccine passport or segregation based on peoples personal preferences. We need to just open up and get on with life, this shit is blown way out of proportion, disease is part of life.
Statistics from Los Angeles County ( USA ) show that unvaccinated folks are 5 times more likely to catch C19 than vaccinated people .... and , of those who are infected by it , unvaccinated are 29 times more likely to require hospitalization ...
... further : Vaccinated people are far less likely to pass C19 onto others if they do catch it .... vaccination slows down transmissability of the virus considerably ....
Cytokine storm. I would have to have been one of the first people to take this virus seriously way back in December 2019 but personally I now think the Labour government are overreacting. They have become so focused on Covid that they can no longer see the wood from the trees and are trying to treat it like nothing else in the whole world matters because if we stay focused on Covid we will not see what a total shit job they are doing on every single aspect of their management of this country.
Ah, no. Flawed logic there; try: Was, until.....
We have burnt the best, and are down to the dregs (ever-reducing EROEI).
And it is a finite resource, so 'always' is invalid.
Just sayin'.
Oh, and below a certain EROEI (and inevitably when its all gone), you don't have an 'economy', so 'investment' is also a misnomer.
Good luck with it all....
Making money doesn't have to be hard.
Item, Last (USD), 1 day, 1 year
WTI Crude Oil, $78.85, +2.48%, +91.06%
RBOB Gasoline, $2.3453, +1.85%, +90.09%
Natural Gas, $5.76, +0.81%, +118.84%
Heating Oil, $2.4708, +1.54%, +107.47%
Ethanol, $2.207, 0.00%, +60.39%
Brent Crude, $82.42, +2.09%, +89.78%
Here's a little "fun fact" for ya pankers ....put some 91 in the car today and worked out what it would be in the USA (suburban Maryland) right now ....well the answer was very simple ...In Auckland we pay for 1 US gallon of 91 USD 6.20 ......while the gas station I know in Maryland only pay USD 3.09 .....SO DOUBLE !!!
Yes, New Zealand - overpaying for imports and everything else since 1921 !
So far the New Zealand vaccination effort is faltering slightly (80.7% of Kiwis nationally and rising more slowly)
That doesn't seem surprising given the %s we get for childhood immunisations (about 85%)
I'd be surprised if we surpass those
easy for the anti vaccers and tin hat brigade to be principled and uphold their beliefs when its on their child --- little less so when they will catch the stuff themselves and are more likely to die! -- suspect we will get 90% in time - between mandating it for lots of employers and industries and then restricting waht you can do without your vaccination passport -- Already know of a fairly significant number of people -- staunchly not getting it -- who have got their first dose this week - partly due to fear and reality hitting in - partly because they have tickets to eother festivals or big events over summer !
The 'suggestion that people might like to think about having their 2nd jab sooner that 6 weeks' is all about panic and getting the numbers up. If they were "following the science" they would be suggesting a bigger gap to obtain better and longer effectiveness from the vaccine.
Seeing Jacinda at the Pulpit of Propaganda everyday at 1 p.m. also builds distrust ... only health officials should be appearing ..... Labour has politicized this pandemic ...
... and the unexplained cancellation of yesterday's sermon from the mount is very suspicious ... as yesterday we had a spike in C19 new infections to report ... Jacinda running for cover ?
" It is the combination of record high taxes": which are really at record lows compared to road construction costs these days. Petrol tax is going up about 3c a year, meanwhile the cost to build the most simple roundabout costs as much as building 2 entire houses: https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/126525065/building-small-rou…
I have decided to spend what little I have on "HeadHunters" and the Other "Mongrel Mobs" and their "Young Ladies" to help me find an alternative AntiGen to give to their folks to spread around New Zealund to Aid the elimination of the Killer Drugs bought into this country by our Chinese Importer Friends. Wuhan and Co.
This new Killer Drug, often called CovidCCP is the latest craze to be spread about and it is stopping us all from Working and buying Dope. So the Dope importers are infecting us all with Unemployment and that other Number 3 Drug...IdleCuriosity...in visiting Hotel Rooms.
So I believe we should bring Antigen to bear the brunt of any further Expansion.
And who are the Seasoned Travellers to spread the "new Good Drugs"...why those who are so adept...The New Gang of 5 Million, so as we are already paying their way....in one way or another....A No Brainer. ...
Sooooo as the Prime Person has already got the Gangs on her Payroll to get the Tab Rolling, to inject a little Fun, Bingo. Problem Solved. .....The Gang of 5 Million will be so pleased I thought of this.....and now we can cease Funding all other waste and whatnot. And Hotel Rooms can return to what they were intened for....A Good Nights Rest.
Especially in Whangggaray...ay.
DUH.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.