A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; some more key rate changes, PMI recovers, air quality improves, La Nina back, swaps up, NZD firmer, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
HSBC have raised their floating rate, but only by +10 bps. Westpac have also raised their fixed rates by +14 to +26 bps. SBS Bank have also raised rates by +14 to +20 bps.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
HSBC have increased some savings account rates. SBS Bank has raised TD rates too.

SAVED BY THE SOUTH
There's a lot to be encouraged about in today's data release of the September PMI. New orders and employment are still expanding, and the bounceback to an overall expansion from the August contraction is impressive. But the North Island is still actually contracting, even if much less so. The South Island companies surveyed are doing very well indeed, holding the national expansion higher than it would otherwise be.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING
Stats NZ released data that shows air quality has improved at most sites and across most (4 of the 5 major ones) of the indicators used.

CHANGING DIRECTION
The new Japanese prime minister is ditching Abenomics, saying it didn't deliver what it promised.

THE SWITCH IS BACK ON
It looks like the La Niña weather pattern is back. That tends to mean moist, rainy conditions to northeastern areas of the North Island and reduced rainfall to the lower and western South Island. Warmer than average air and sea temperatures can also be a feature. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a naturally occurring global climate cycle that has been occurring for millennia (even if school kids are now taught any change is "climate change".) Then there is real change.

PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have risen to 2179 cases reported there today, and that was far more than expected. Deaths were 11 yesterday. There are now 21,324 active cases in the state and there were six deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 399 new community cases reported today with another 284 not assigned to known clusters. They now have 5,243 active locally acquired cases which is lower, but they had another 17 deaths yesterday. Queensland is reporting zero new cases again. The ACT has 35 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 65% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 18% have now had one shot so far. There was one new case in New Zealand at the border, and 65 more in the community. So far, 62% of eligible Kiwis now have both shots, another 21% the initial shot. So far the New Zealand vaccination effort is faltering (83.4% of Kiwis nationally aged 12 and over and only rising slowly) and the Australian rate is also slowing with theirs now at 83.6% of all 16 year olds and older.

GOLD FIRMER BUT EASING FROM EARLIER HIGHS
Compared to where this time yesterday, the gold price is up +US$4 at US$1795/oz in early Asian trade. That is slightly lower than the US$1,796 New Ork closing and the US$1,799 London fix.

EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P500 rose +1.7% today in their Thursday session and a risk-on mood swept markets there bolstered by good earnings reports by tech companies. So far this week it is up only +1.1% however. The very large Tokyo market is up +0.9% in early trade and heading for a +2.9% weekly gain. Hong Kong is open again up +0.3$ and heading for a +1.1% weekly gain. Shanghai has opened -0.3% lower and heading for a -1.5% weekly retreat, undermined by their property sector. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in early afternoon trade but only heading for a +0.1% weekly rise. The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade and will probably finish the week down -0.5%.

SWAP & BONDS RATES HOLD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They probably rose across all terms. We will update this if there are significantly different changes when the end-of-day data comes through. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.69%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.65% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.99% and up +1 bp. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.15% (+1 bp higher from this time yesterday) and now well above the earlier RBNZ fix for that rate at 2.11% (+1 bp). The US Govt ten year is down another -2 bps to 1.53%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up about +70 bps to 70.4 USc today. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps from this time yesterday at 94.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +60 bps at 60.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 74 and right at the top of the 72-74 range we have been in for most of the past eleven months.

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BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$56,990 and a fall of -1.8% from this time yesterday. But for the week it is up +4.9%. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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