This is the last of the daily holiday briefings. Bernard Hickey's Top 10 returns Monday.
Belt tightening
Japanese housewives' 'secret savings' fell 18% to the lowest in three years in 2010 as slumping family incomes and rising prices for food and energy forced them to tap reserves, a survey shows.
Two halves
Yesterday's CPI data may have been as the experts expected, but a deeper dig shows some trends remain untamed, masked by the GST rise impact. The big increases were way above the GST effect, and these included the 'nontradables' of Health, up +7.2% pa, Education, up +5.7%, and Government charges up +6.9%. In the tradables sector, many items deflated despite the GST rise, and it was only food, petrol (and booze) that pushed this group up.
Starting slow
The first reading of consumer confidence in 2011 is out and it is mildly positive. But the lacklustre nature of it suggests consumers have returned from their holiday break just as cautious as before they took their break - and that suggests to me that 'saving' still has the priority over 'spending.
Listening
"The most important thing in communication is to hear what isn't being said."
- Peter F. Drucker
more below ...
| 7 am | --- 52 week -- | |||||||
| Today | yesterday | high | low | |||||
| -------- | -------- | --------- | --------- | |||||
| FX rates | NZ$1=US$ | 0.7568 | 0.7711 | 0.7964 | 0.6584 | |||
| NZ$1=AU$ | 0.7669 | 0.7698 | 0.8212 | 0.7408 | ||||
| Gold | in US$/oz | 1,352 | 1,371 | 1,421 | 1,058 | |||
| in NZ$ | 1,786 | 1,778 | 1,877 | 1,507 | ||||
| Copper | in US$/t | 9,788 | 9,560 | 9,788 | 6,091 | |||
| in NZ$ | 12,933 | 12,398 | 12,933 | 8,951 | ||||
| Crude oil | in US$/bl | 89.76 | 92.01 | 91.91 | 70.15 | |||
| in NZ$ | 118.60 | 119.32 | 121.36 | 101.30 | ||||
| US Treasuries | 30 yr bond | 4.53% | 4.56% | 4.78% | 3.61% | |||
| Dow | DJIA 30 | 11,807 | 11,816 | 11,850 | 9,614 | |||
10% growth, evenly through the year
"In 2010, faced with the complicated and volatile domestic and international economic environment, serious natural disasters and various grand challenges, the Central Party Committee and the State Council, uniting and leading the Chinese people of all ethnic groups, sized up the situation and made scientific decisions. They implemented earnestly the scientific outlook on development, sped up the transformation of economic development mode, strengthened and improved macro economic control and encouraged the performance of market mechanism. As a result, the achievements of countering the impact of global financial crisis were consolidated and expanded, and the national economy showed good momentum of development." This was the introduction to the Chinese announcement of their Q4 and 2010 GDP performance. And we all believe their numbers?
Recovery?
Sales of existing US houses jumped 12% in December to a 5.28 million annual rate, despite tough weather conditions. Buyers may also be taking advantage of cheaper homes. The median existing-home sales price decreased to US$168,800 from US$170,500 in the same month a year ealier. That's the equivalent of NZ$222,100, more than 30% less than the price for a median home in New Zealand.
Driving less
Americans are driving less, a trend that started in the early 1990's. The reasons are still up for debate.
No chart with that title exists.
94 Comments
And when the tanks roll into the centre of Beijing and the commodity prices have collapsed and the aussie export returns have gone pear shaped....what happens to NZ!....oooops
Just one black swan event waiting to happen. Throw in the financial money trickery and greater bullshit going on in Europe and let's not forget the political rorting and money printing games in the USA....plus the lying at the BoE about inflation under control....ooooeeeee we have us a time of turbulence ahead.
Take one disprin and lie down...it will all go away!
Denninger
This is not going to be good...
UK inflation jumped in December with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rising to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in November.
Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation - which includes mortgage interest payments - rose to 4.8% from 4.7%.
So what happens when you can buy a short-term government bond over in the UK at a materially-higher yield than one here in the US?
Why, capital flies over there, right?
And what happens when capital leaves?
So do jobs.
So does industry.
So does national vitality.
Bernanke is cornered. I know, I know, we have massive commodity price increases.
But watch what happens when the insane liquidity games are forced out by the market.
We've been real good at exploiting our reserve currency status, and with that has come a paradox - we don't get the monetary inflation from these liquidity games - everyone else does.
But what comes next is what always comes next when you push the pendulum too far - it swings the other way, and we will not avoid the impact from that.
The pincers are closing folks, and it looks like I might have missed on my $100 oil call, if only because the peak came sooner than I thought, and the ability to sustain this game was short of my expectations.
View this entry with comments (registration required to post)"I am no longer as optimistic as I was – at least not until 2030." notes economic bear, (!) Albert Edwards, "Basing economic growth on loose monetary policy driving up asset prices is simply doomed to failure...."
Actually WJ you are more likely to see Chinese troops enter North Korea to bring to an end the stupidity going on there. A reunified Korea would be in Beijing's interests. The manpower likely to be lost would be seen as a win win by beijing and sold as China doing its bit to protect the world from an idiot regime.
Wolly, you actually make some sense here about China more likely than anyone to put Nth Korea out of it's misery, knew you had it in you!
At the golf club, hear that there is one (very good) golf course in Nth Korea, and there may be invitations issued this year for outsiders to go to play there. Mind you, evidently the course record (held by guess who?) is a tough one to beat as he blazed around 38 under par with 7 holes- in -one.
Its a couple of years old
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d8147cc-f81d-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html#axzz1Bc27Gxiw
Demand for oil will fall this year at the fastest rate since 1982, the International Energy Agency has forecast.
Interesting comment, I cant see what the retort by the FT etc is...
India and China and putting too many cars on the roads, they are using more than enough to counter-balance developed countries using less....If the IEA are to be believed the oil price must drop significantly as well....the only conceivable reason for that to happen is that a major economic, world wide depression happens first......
This is a bit of a chicken and egg situation....if oil continues to rise it will indeed trigger another dip........if its as we go now there is no way the demand will "naturally" drop unless India and China cuts back....which hey wont unless a huge economic anti-stimulus, decimates their economies....
In the past most of the time I used think the IEA were dorks....now I wonder if in fact that do get peak oil etc but are gagged....
2011 looks to be a shinner............welcome to peak oil........
regards
Meanwhile our world's most pressing problem starts to impact in most dramatic ways.
Great - the major minders "get it" regards the exponential function and they've written a fairytale with very colourful graphics to keep the growth myth alive;
Yep - how many house developments were allowed below the 1974 flood-line?
Wonder if Hugh P lobbied there?
I think 6-10 million too many in Aus, and 200 million to the north eyeing them off in envy.
Wonder what Brash thinks (wrong word) now? Catch them up? My better half hails from Toowoomba, we chose here. No regrets.
The long term flood/drought answer on the east coast of aus has to be bloody big very deep holes. I'm talkin 10 square miles and 300 yards deep. Dig the sods in the right place and divert the flood flow in a big wet to fill em up....use the lakes as recreation spots and for irrigation in the big dry. Simple aint it.
Nah....in a few months likely as not they will be as dry as a bone and praying for rain again...and where did all the friggin water go...down the creek into the sea...sodding waste.
Every shire and whatever ought to be required to dig a bleeding big hole...no reason why they can't do it...fix em up with ramps and stuff so when they do fill up..it's boating time.
74 was how long ago...how many holes could have been dug...heaps I reckon. The land owners could share in the ownership of the water collected in a flood and by that means be compensated...the mines could help out with the machinery and so forth.
For the record: The problem is local councils are over-run by green tree-huggers, tree-changers who prevent clearing of waterways, creeks, rivers, dams etc of debris, and forest floors are not allowed to be cleared of fuel which contributes to extreme fires.
excerpt from BusinessSpectator: another example of misplaced, political jumping-of the-gun, the result of ignorance on the part of those making such proposals. Building levees is not a solution. (See Bligh launches Qld flood inquiry, January 18.) Most of the inundation areas in the low lying downstream suburbs was remote from the river. It the result of back-flow through the drowned storm water system. The existing river bank levees were not topped by floodwater in such cases and overflow directly from the river was not the cause of flooding. Non-return valves on the storm water system would have prevented upwards of 90% of the flooding in such areas. A simple engineering solution seems to be being overlooked by the Premier and her like and the building of levees while ignoring the storm water system flow back will only increase the flood risk and consequence. I live in New Farm and saw exactly what happened. It all came via back-flow from the storm water system. Not one drop of water came from the topping of the riverbank by flood waters and the resultant direct overflow from the Brisbane River! Lloyd Taylor 18 Jan 2011 2:01 PM
And of course stormwater management is one of the three "W"'s (water, wastewater, waste) of local government - so in their core responsibility area they failed miserably. Stormwater infrastructure just ain't sexy - and hence (my guess), it's a weak priority of LG both here and in Oz. Much more popular to campaign on the building of another sports arena, ice rink, aquatic centre or art gallery. But with these non-return valves, where would all that excess stormwater have been diverted to? The rivers? Then of course, the stopbanks aren't adequate.
No matter which way you engineer it - I'm just thinking there might be too many people in harms way?
For the $20 billion clean-up and restoration costs they could and should build a giant inland canal the size of the Suez and re-direct the water inland instead of out to sea. When the water is not running, and it dries out, they send a couple of bulldozers and drag lines down it and recover all the top-soil.
That makes too much sense! "...The canal proposal is the most simple of the land-based proposals - it is merely a channel dug from the Kimberley to Perth - but it has a number of drawbacks.", just a different side of the wide, brown land......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCjdRVlKyK4&NR=1
They already have some holes they are filling up with water!
Exactly.
Yeah, I was guessing it was carrying likely double the sustainable number - and then given it's a desert, even that might be generous.
I think NZ is lucky to be an island where these major weather systems don't have the same prolonged build up period over land. Doubt we'll ever see that kind of widespread socio-economic devestation from flooding... I'm guessing landslides are more a worry where the faster/heavier downpours are concerned - alot of property perched on hillsides.
Lots of other extreme events from the effects of AGW....the comments ive seen on NZ is west way wetter, east way dryer....either will devistate your crops...........Im wondering at what point insurance becomes impossible......then you cannot hedge.....
NZs population is also a worry....4million ppl who cant feed themselves except by driving to the supermarket...let alone OZ....or say the UK......
regards
How can you plan for a 200 year event? You cannot its just about in-conceivable....and guess what if the Pollies had gone to the voter and said we are going to spend money to protect you against an event outside the realms of probability, who would have voted for them?
17million in OZ? I dont think thats too many, but its hard to say when you damage the thing that you need to keep you alive, anyway....the problem is the many millions just over the water....who will migrate when things get tough.....kind of like the great swimmer being pulled under by a drowning multitude....
regards
Yeap and it will all come back to Shelter and Food, thats why countries that only produce material things will struggle , world population will double, environment impacts will wipe out huge amounts crops etc and those countires that can supply it will come out of financial crises better that the rest.Can't see commodity prices falling anytime soon.
because people are living longer..and all the predictions are that the population will double..with the advances in the medical world a lot of the issues that affected past population growth are not around (i.e we didnt get a massive death toll from bird flu- twenty years ago we may of) so unless some new virus developes to wipe out a few hundred million the thing that will affect people the most will be Food and water shortage.
Precisely. At it's most basic, if you're about right and food and water decline ( environmental impact) then, half the population will starve to death or at least go into non-replication. That's why Western societies are in terminal decline. That leaves the developing world, to be most at risk of the foremention 'starvation'. I just can't see that you can have both food decline and population increase; that's all :)
I find it hard to believe that food will be in short supply. Get in a train and travel across the plains of Hungry, mile after mile of flat land waiting for technology to increase production many times. World population won't double, the debate is going to be about energy everything else is a smokescreen.
Its the energy needed from fertiliser ,plastics to diesel thats going to get us in trouble.
AJ.- I presume you last sentence means 'the energy for' fertiliser, plastics and diesel. Add roading networks, aircraft and shipping. Add alkathene pipes, add electricity (70% of the world's electric power comes from coal).
That is what will make food be in short supply. Food is energy, but we use fossil fuels to make it and deliver it - essentially we are eating oil. A finite resource.
Hence the Permaculture movement, hence Transition Towns. Hence folk like me chasing down the energy efficiency and self-sufficiency path.
I love that "Plains of Hungry" quote, though. One for Bernard's 'best of the day' award.
Kate - With appropriate force at the time.
We're a species, albeit one at the end of the food-chain. It's called survival of the fittest. I may well go down in the process, though, which will annoy me heaps.......
We could have gotten there as a mature society, but I reckon it's too late for that. Listen to the Finlay Macdonald thing on RNZ the other night - Tanzos, Salmon and Terry -
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/lecturesandforums/smarttalk2010
They mentioned that Bill McKibbon and David Suzuki (and others) reckon it's 'game over for a species'.
After 30 plus years of debating, I agree with them.
Too many middle-class deniers in the western world, too many fundamentalists everywhere, too many short-sighted and selfish ditto, and too many mouths in the third world.
Read the 'Limits to Growth', Club of Rome, and the 10-year updates.
With appropriate force at the time.
Rather futile me thinks - you can't guard your fruit trees, chook house and veggie garden 24/7. And would you really shoot at a few young kids over an apple that likely hasn't even got to fully ripened stage?
Which is where having access to ongoing fiat currency - money in the bank - seems to me a necessary direction/goal. So, the self-sufficiency question to me becomes, how does one derive guaranteed self-made income that isn't an edible commodity which is likely to be the target of petty thieves? And the best guess I've come up with is having excess energy to feed back into the national grid - so you can afford to go to the mint (i.e. grocery store).
The alternate being to be food self-sufficent in a (very) remote area, I suppose.
Kate - What an interesting enigma of a comment.
I don't advocate force, but I think it is the inevitable end-game, if society breaks down.
I never mentioned kids and apples - my dad remembers the raids on his grannys 'farm' 20 km from a city, in the Depression. They were in groups, hungry, and adult.
Fiat money???????? After you posted that zerohedge link? How can you?
Fiat money is in terminal trouble. The promisory note is for a supply of goods and/or services in the future. Growing exponentially, as you link points out. Even at this point, the future cannot supply the expected redemption of the held promisory notes, and has already gone into irretrievable overshoot.
You don't believe that horseshit about the sub-prime being a cause, do you? Any individual of country could have traded their way out of that cul-de-sac, if there had been unlimited resources, particularly the key one - cheap energy.
Energy peaked in real (actual oomph=per-barrel) terms in 2005. From there on, overshoot, non underwriteable. Note that global longevity, increasing yoy forever, peaked in 2007. No coincidence.
So fiat money can't maintain the myth, and the first 'run' will be the last. Unless the debt is socialised as per Govt subsidies, in which case we get sovereign defaults. At the end of the day, 'wealth' in the bank, is only electronic 1's and 0's. Not underwritable real-time. You want to put your faith in that? Good luck.
If society holds together, your grid idea is a goodie - energy is wealth, 100%. I'm not convinced the fiscal system will stay intact enough, but at least you are energy-sufficient.
I suspect it will be community/village level co-operation (that's what we have around here)
Gonna be an interesting year - shortages of coal, onions, wheat, rice, tuna......... gonna get a whole lot more expensive to live....
pdk - I'm just guessing (or would "hoping" be a better word) but I imagine a Bretton Woods II will have to come along at some stage - and existing fiat will be converted to whatever the new, possibly global fiat is - maybe it will be all electronic fiat (as that would do away with the cash economy which would improve governance, or the ability of government's to govern/tax and redistribute more equitably).
But while all the powers that be work on sorting that out - cash in the bank, ongoing income and access to what credit might be available will be pretty important.
The other "guess" (your notion of end-game) ... anarchy rulz and a political/economic elite bunker themselves in with military protection from the masses.
As for community/village cooperation - I'd also like to be a utopian - and indeed some days I am.
Kate - I don't think it's utopian. It's just a fair guess that what worked on the way up, will work on the way down. It'll be a case of 'local'.
Yes, there will have to be a new Bretton Woods (a call I made a while back in a little op/ed:
http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/34180/hard-times-here-stay
But it won't make up for the fact that only the really available, is really available.
Nor for the fact that there are 7 biilion where there can only be 2 billion long-term (listen to the Kim Hill / pengion lady re-run on Nat Radio this morning.).
The exponential and the linear are always divergent - it's a bugger.
yes - they'll have to be quick. and it won't be enough.
It's a matter of using the remaining oil, to both set up replacement energy supplies/sources, and somehow mitigate the impact (climate change) of the burning of that oil in the process.
Big ask.
Makes the 'continue business as usual / growth' mantra look a bit sick.
"anarchy rulz and a political/economic elite bunker themselves in with military protection from the masses."
They have to come out to get food.....ppl pay tax with little arm twisting today, will that be the case with anrachy? I dont see why.....so the military are either going to have to become tax/%food collectors for the "elite" are not going to do to well.........and our military are small and reliant on technology and oil........
Wealth when measured in money is worthless if no one wants to sell food....
"village cooperation" This has worked for thousands of years, Long term it will again........ideas like libertarianism where its every man for himself and "we'll live in the hills and live off the land" wont ....IMHO....not medium and long term.
regards
Brian Gaynor’s last sentence in today’s NZHerald: It is important for us to realise that our assets will be more vulnerable to foreign predators if we remain a slow-growth economy.
Full article:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10701173
I think it is much more important to ask the question how we grow. In many countries growth comes with enormous costs, especially for the environment respectively taxpayers – a vicious uneconomic cycle. Unfortunately New Zealand is no exception - growth should be related to quality and sustainability.
Mark – I don’t accept current political systems as such and would never fit in one. The introduction of MMP was good, but the political system needs further reformation.
We should learn and judge on 100 capable individuals representing our nation not on parties. I’m sick to hear left/ right – blue/ red/ capitalist/ communist/ - that rhetoric destroys a lot of progress - real development. As we are experiencing in parliament – just daily Kindergarten - Gummy and some others are classical - just wasting time - timewasters going around the circle !
By the way in my team a number of ministers would have already lost their jobs, because of underperforming – in order to do that - get rid of party clusters.
While simply not true....if thats the defination you wish to use, ie not accepting restrict productive endevours to sustainable and NZers....well by all means I'll sign up to be a "commie" in your terms........
The reality is the real face of communism is not better and arguably worse than capitalism but not by much....neither are sustainable....both exploit rerserves that took a long time to build up and have done so in 200 years....
regards
Yeah thats why before you starve to death you going to try and get your hands on some food, or the country that has food are'nt you, so those countries that can produce food well, i.e NZ ( thats why commodity prices are sky high- chinese want to buy our land / farms/ forests) are going to be sort after, as you are going buy a loaf of bread before a TV screen. You are right population is to increase but at slower rate, but still increase to 9 billion by 2042, currently around 6 billion.
Oh! I see. You mean like Japan did in '37; when it invaded China to get it's hands on their resources and Germany did likewise in Europe. That wasn't the least bit good for the inhabitants of the invaded countries. So I hope your not suggesting that New Zealand is likewise' blessed'. Economic invasion, today's warfare, is likely to have the same result for a nations residents.
It's a Baby Boomer thing. Recorded history began when their dad came home from the war. Nothing happened before the war, especially not a Great Depression. WW2 was the beginning of all time, and nothing matters but the lifetime and lifespan of the Baby Boomers.
It's why they feel no remorse about screwing up the national economy, and life in general, for any who survive them.
/məˈlɑrki/ Show Spelled[muh-lahr-kee]
–noun Informal .
speech or writing designed to obscure, mislead, or impress; bunkum: The claims were just a lot of malarkey.Can you have a " height of the depression " ? ........ I thought it would be a " depth of the depression " thing ............. Hey Bernard , you're the resident gloomsterisationaliser par excellence ...... Which is correct ?
[.......... By the way BH , what the feck have the Yanks done to your hair , dude ? ....... That is seriously a bogus dome , and I've seen some pugly ones .......... Mine , for starters . ]
Im willing to bet the population will be less than that today.....could be half. You miss that most of the world eats oil....oil production will be considerably lower by 2042 than it is today AND some of that food land will be used for bio-fuels....thats looking like a lot of dead ppl to me....
regards
Yeap exactly in a more sophisticated method than a war..i.e take over the core assets and control the supply chain from farm to end user. I think you already seeing it in our dairy products..why supply the product the local residents when you can get more for it from other nations who need it for there growing population.
At present yes, I dont think you even have to take over control.....just off a better price for say fish and let the business ppl do the rest. NZ is in the middle, the developed nations are all more wealthy (paper wealth) at present so can pay more than NZers....we on the other hand can pay more than the developing world....so a pecking order............However what is their wealth based on? illusion? financial ponzie schemes looks like it....so they will get poorer....they have in many cases no more oil or coal....they have to buy it in....
Where the voter/Govn continunes to allow ppl to sell abroad.........Russia stopped grain exports, Thailand and India did rice in 2008/2009?....ample examples of such action.
One of the reasons I am so against free trade agreements is you are obliged to trade even if as a soverign nation you do not wish to......
regards
Thanks NC. Not surprised about the diesel. We have two diesel vehicles now, no petrol ones, so I guess diesel cars may account for some of it.
Diesel cars are more popular now but what most people don't realise is that the more economical your vehicle is the more you pay for diesel thanks to road user charges being based solely on a per km travelled. The really efficient diesels can run your diesel fillup costs close to, and depending on price differential, more than filling up on petrol.
Maybe we should do what the Chinese are doing
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8271203/Strong-China-…
"Commonwealth trade and investment now accounts for over 20% of the world total and there is the potential to increase this share further.
"There are huge economic benefits to be gained and Britain must capitalise on these opportunities."
---------------------------------
Addressing a room full of ministers and other dignitaries at the Maritime Museum in downtown Auckland, Mr Hague said the relationship between our countries provided an enormous economic opportunity and encouraged the sharing of our economic links.
"New Zealand is a hotbed of innovation and is known as such in the UK. That must need some foreign direct investment to commercialise some of the great ideas and the UK, as the leading global finance centre, can provide some of the capital to do so.
"New Zealand's world leading food technologies coupled with the strength of the UK's retailers can also be a formidable combination."
Mr Hague also spoke of the need to make the Commonwealth more relevant and effective.
"I do think we can make more of the Commonwealth, I do think it is time to make more of a remarkable network of 54 nations and 31 percent of the world's population and all of the inhabited continents of the globe and we can set out to do so together."
------------------------------------
God save our.......
[quote] Powerdownkiwi 21 Jan 2011: "You don't believe that horseshit about the sub-prime being a cause, do you?" ... had there been unlimited cheap energy. [endquote]
Powerdownkiwi .. the first person I have read in 3 years who has got it .. here is my support ..
Some coal-face economics written in Mid-2009
The great global financial crisis
Nearly 2 years have gone by. Millions of hectares of space have been devoted to it in the print media and zillions of electrons in the electronic media. All the media-savvy academic economists have strutted their stuff. A number of documentaries have been produced. The main theory is it was the fall of Lehman Brothers and CDO's based on sliced and diced sub-prime mortgages. .. They're all wrong ..
The oil shocks
The first happened in 1972. The second happened in 1978. Massive inflation followed each shock. The third happened in 2007 without inflation. A colleague and his partner both drive six cylinder cars. They drive to work separately. Not a huge distance. About half an hour. Their combined monthly petrol bill was $800. When oil peaked at $150 per barrel their monthly petrol bill was nearly $1500. That was nearly $700 of discretionary spending power sucked out of their monthly household budget. Approximately $8000 per year. After tax.
American households are hocked up to the eyeballs. Mortgages are refinanced regularly to extract equity from the home for newer and bigger and better cars. And holidays. American commuters travel long distances and use SUV's. Petrol doubled in price from $2 per US galllon to $4 per US gallon. The monthly increase in fuel costs sucked the oxygen out of the economy. Consumers had no choice but to pay the higher fuel bills. So they stopped paying their mortgages. Which started the flood of mortgage defaults. Which triggered the sub-prime crisis. Which triggered the CDO's. Which triggered the fall of Lehman Brothers. If oil had not gone up to $150 per barrel Lehman Brothers would not have collapsed. That crocodile in the swamp would still be there today. The problem now, today is, as the USD falls lower the cost of oil to the US consumer is heading back up. If the USD collapses the price of oil in america will head back up to $150.
Snookered
The US has to keep the USD up in order to hold the price of oil down. The FED has to keep interest rates down to help the US consumer. But the low rates are hurting the USD. Cant have it both ways. Another bout of oxygen starvation.
Now in 2011 The FED has done the opposite, has deflated the USD, the cost of oil is back up at $100 pb and heading north again ..
http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/34180/hard-times-here-stay
note the date :)
There's nothing like ligic, fact and physics.
These economist-followers are just the same rabble who burned witches, thought the earth was flat, and that there was a hereafter-place. Same mindset required, ie not much.
good to know a fellow (HPV?) traveller.
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