BNZ economists reckon economy grew 0.4% in 1st quarter, 2nd quarter has 'accumulating economic momentum'

bollocks

 Craig Ebert,  like so many other banksters probably had a pay rise of 5.5%, (banks sucking more money from hard working Kiwis) - before he wrote that crap.

what f%%$ing planet do these guys live on?

the only thing I can put it down to is spruiking the economy to build their business - either that or they are consistently proven wrong cos they are useless -

Apart from the farmers (who are mainly paying off debt rather than spending) the economy is dead

I think NZIER came out yesteday with a prediction of -0.1% GDP for Q1 - that seems a lot more likely

we reckon there is certainly evidence of accumulating economic momentum in the second quarter.

True, but the direction of that momentum is negative.

I've seen these economists say these things before. I hope hes right but I find itt very hard to believe. Maybe you can still get some econimic growth from borrowing that much money to inject

I think the main problem with these economists is they look at things too mechanically and in silos - I firmly believe they are poor at looking at the bigger picture and how all the various domestic and international factors inter-relate 

"Furthermore, Ebert said, last week's Q1 retail sales figures, showing a 2% rise by value from the December quarter in the largest quarterly rise since March 2007, certainly helped the nationwide cause." 

thats not a bullish indicator at all - the rise was mainly off the back of higher petrol prices, an eventual increase following the post-GST retail lull, and a lot of retail discounts on the back of poor sales and a strong NZ dollar making it easier to discount

I'm sure that is not what Craig Ebert said ........I'm sure he said .." the economy is in full recovery mode Ha ha.."....the ha ha may have been omitted due to the reporters inability to recognise Ha ha as valid financial speak.

I think he went on to say "At the end of this spin cycle ...there will be a return to deep rinse untill all the signs of foaming bubbles have been removed....."

Given that Tony Alexander probably needs to read the instructions each morning on how to put a pair of trousers on, I would take little from his ability to foresee the future (or in this case predict the past!).

The December figure is likely to go down given they didn't include ChCh data (because the CBD was shutdown).  Hence in reality growth would be lucky to be zero in December and be unlikely to be positive in March. 

Tony and Craig (who is an ex Cantab btw) clearly are unaware (like Key/Brownlee) of the impact on ChCh.  If ChCh was even 10% out of action for the quater it would slice 0.4% off GDP.  The rest of the country would have to be going gangbusters to even come close to BNZ's prediction.

Now lets remember Australia, floods there cut a whopping 1.25% off GDP for the quarter.  How could we possibly not have seen something similar here.  The only way is with StatsNZs dodgy numbers, like those absurdly fluctuating employment numbers!!

I note that the Reserve Bank GDP forecasts from earlier in the month work out as:

Q1 +0.3%

Q2 +0.4%

Q3 +0.9%

Q4 +1.3%

All highly unlikely, especially as cash will start flowing out of ChCh (to Australia) quicker than look at you, when insurances are sorted.  (Remember most ChCh people can't stand Auckland or Wellington so Ausralia will be the main destination for escapees).

My prediction based on nothing other than my own gut feeling is that Q1 will be down a half, Q2 down a quarter, Q3 down a half, Q4 flat.  Oh dear another recession, but when December gets revised we'll all know we've been in recession since Q3 2010!

yeah I agree lots of Cantabrians don't like Auck - I get plenty of ribbing from my mum's family!

The reality is too there aren't the jobs in Auckland for Cantabrians anyway (or Wellington for that matter, especially as they are cutting the public service)

I'm sure too that for many Cantabs the thought of going from their home city to another earthquake-prone city doesn't really appeal 

By the way Q1 Aussie GDP was 50bps below consensus estimates.  So -0.6% NZ GDP anyone?  Only 100bps below TA and CEs guess!  But then remember even in September 2008 TA thought interest rates would drop only marginally over the next few months because of the booming construction sector amongst other things!  Yeah right, Tony!

The only factor that may arrest the slide somewhat is how much money is being spent in the economy from reinsurance money. MSD has a lot its reinsurance money out with NGOs and the non profit sector providing social services...while the amount spent on roading and temp infrastructure time and again in Christchurch may mask the trend. GDP is about spending not the nature there of.

There will always be conspiracy theorists, especially on blog site. It used to be the Jewish financiers, now it's just financiers in general as the old Jewish phobia has neen put to bed  Actually the economists may be right, heard Cameron Bagrie from ANZ a couple of months ago who  saw good growth potential from the obscene(my words) amount of income farmers are earning these days, once they start freeing up their cheque books, he said by next year. The manufacturing sector has been going from srength to strength in past 6-9 months, also. 

Credibility!

Drop the word Economist for soothsayer, they must wear an animal hide, dance around a fire and make predictions from analysing bones and animal entrails.

Anyone with common sence can see this is not right.

one reputable economist told me recently that the economy will grow 2.5% in the coming year - "because population growth will be about 1% and we can add about 1.5% to that"!!!!

LOL

We've had population growth in the last 3 years but that hasn't stopped negative GDP!

"The New Zealand economy is "firmly in recovery mode" and probably grew in the March quarter, says BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert."

I'm quite sure many 'bank economists' think that around the world, UNTIL Greece defaults that is! And they will, and then watch it snowball!

Fonterra producers 95% of  milk and the average Fonterra supplier's income this year is over $1 million. Bet some gloomsters here on this site wouldn't mind that sort of annual income, even allowing for expenses and tax. This is even better than when I was farming in the bouyant times!  The good news for Kiwis is the old adage, when the cockies are doing well, so will NZ, so cheer up guys, NZ will be a not so bad country to be in, stick with it.

Yes, I was also going to say that we are enjoying around $150 for lambs, and $200 for good quality ewes, and the regular, substantial rain is liquid gold feeding the entire agricultural sector. But didn't want to spread too much joy all at once as there's only so much good news some can take!

Just imagine how much better off we would be with Labour/Greens leading SS New Zealand.

We are coping ok with the depression we are having. To blame the govt for it all is laughable, we are at the whim of the world markets.

I think differently to most, I beleive the non productives get given too much money (beneficairies) and workers get taxed too much. This is 1 answer to fixing the funding (borrowing) shortfall.

Thank god National in gummies are doing well. Let the cows shit and bring in the revenue.

Chris_J

 I talked with several friends last week. all are well established sheep and beef farmers on family farms. No one was happy even though the prices are so good, they appeared to be swamped by costs and were retrenching. One friend in his mid 50's said to me that he has resigned himself to working the rest of his life to pay off debt and is getting used to spending a lot less.  Another on a family cropping unit with irrigation said that he too is struggling and looking at his options.  If it helps, I sold my farm in 2007 but the year before i paid 150k in tax excluding ACC, I often paid around that figure in tax. It looks like its tougher now than then and there is a feeling that the good times wont last.

No, Chris I'm not a sheep farmer, was dairying, but no longer farming, decided to cash up and pursue other interests while I was still relatively young,  mind you wish I was dairying at present though!

 "Greece's sovereign debt woes have weighed heavily on market sentiment in Europe and around the world, making debt more expensive for any institution wanting to raise money there." herald

As I said earlier..and others pointed out too...rates will rise as the truth about the piigs debt and default potential is exposed ...this is just the start..sit back and watch the show..there will be heaps of laughs to be had as the pollies invent new ways to tell lies and bankers rush to escape their losses.....oh and if you have a mortgage it might be wise to fix asap for as long as poss.

Better to clear mortgages altogether