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90 seconds at 9 am: S&P raises US outlook; Japan grows faster; OECD indicators up; MPI sees bright rural future; NZ$1 = US$0.789, TWI = 73.9

90 seconds at 9 am: S&P raises US outlook; Japan grows faster; OECD indicators up; MPI sees bright rural future; NZ$1 = US$0.789, TWI = 73.9

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of a string of upwards revisions around the world.

Overnight, Standard & Poor's raised its credit outlook on the United States government to stable from negative, citing Congress's avoidance of the year-end 2012 "fiscal cliff" and the higher-than-expected tax receipts that followed.

Japan’s economy grew more than their government initially estimated in the first quarter, revising up its growth rate to 4.1% from the initial estimate of 3.5%, and helping Prime Minister Abe to hold confidence in his campaign to defeat deflation.

The OECD acknowledged overnight when it published its monthly leading indicators that it is the US and Japan that are gaining some economic momentum while the eurozone is stabilising.

Worried about (or cheering?) house price inflation? New Zealand is up there in a world survey out overnight, but house prices are rising faster than us in ten other countries (including the US). We are #11 in this list, Australia is #26.

However we look expensive on both this survey's price-to-rent and price-to-income measures.

And finally, MPI's annual Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries has its own set of upgrades. It sees the dairy sector powering ahead at a compounding growth rate of 8% with output and price rises.

It also sees large harvest volumes in forestry in the medium term and good prospects. Meat is identified as a challenge with no working solution yet, although wine, pipfruit and horticulture all are working towards good futures, they say.

The NZ dollar stabilised overnight at 78.9 USc, 83.4 AUc, and the TWI is at 73.9.

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9 Comments

Are we now to believe 'recovery' is upon the world and the mountains of debts has gone poof...will we be fooled by this orchestrated blather about growth and recovery...not me.

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Its' the "old paradigm"..style of recovery.... where 10% credit growth that give 3% GDP growth...is the smoke and mirrors that allow politicians and economists to celebrate and call it growth..

No different to Old generals always fighting the last War

 

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Your blather has been wrong about everything for the last 6 years Wallace. So, yes, recovery is almost certainly upon us. Slow and steady. Genuinely feel for you Wally. Denial, dementia , death. The world will go on without you.

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only "almost certainly" Vera? full steam ahead ol'girl, damn the torpedoes......death or glory......go buy another 2 houses, you know you'll deserve all you get.

PS given AGW, world yes, humans, no.

regards

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I am sanguine on the recovery being upon us.

Interest rates are far below what they would be in a voluntary/free market, so as a result.....well we all know about central bank "printing".

The question is, what are we seeing? Really? Look back at the published debates within the FED only a couple of decades ago. Balanced budgets and price stability were the goals. 

We are in a very different place today.

Cheers

 

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That's an assumption on your part on where the rate would be,  and I dont think it stacks up.

Lets look at how much money the Govns of the world are pumping into the banks and are annoyed that businesses are not lending....even at these "artificial" low rates. 

So take way the Govns attempt at priming, sure the lender might insist on more, but given businesses are not borrowing, the lenders would be stuck with huge swathes of $s they wont get interest on. 

For the recovery, I'd suggest its a case of us being in the eye of a hurricane, we've got through one big blast, just, but now we await the re-run...place  your bets.

regards

 

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Well put Steven. In the eye of the hurricane. Yep I like that.

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So the Q is, do you batten down, go to steerage power and wait, or place the deckchair out on the bows and signal full steam ahead. 

Me, Im a terrible swimmer....

regards

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I dropd the lifeboat a couple of yrs ago, rowed like crazy, dragd it up on a nice beach, got the deck chair unda a palm sippn a martini rite now. Unlike my compatriots who r fullsteam ahead, dancing in the ballroom, while that big wave that tips the ship ova is travelln 500ks an hr headn 4 a direct hit

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