Nats could rule alone

Latest Roy Morgan poll shows National Party with 51% support; biggest lead since 2011 election

1st Aug 13, 9:08am by David Hargreaves

<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

The National Party could now govern alone, according to the latest Roy Morgan opinion poll, which shows the Government with 51% support.

That's up from 47% in the last poll carried out in the first two weeks of July and National now has its biggest lead over opposition parties since the 2011 election.

This latest poll was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile - with a NZ wide cross-section of 824 electors from July 15-28, 2013.

Labour's support has slumped from 31% to 29%, giving its lowest reading in a Roy Morgan poll since October last year. The latest poll will be another blow for beleaguered leader David Shearer, although this poll won't show any impact from Labour's announced policy last weekend that it would ban overseas based people from buying New Zealand houses.

The Green Party has seen its support slip from 11.5% to 10%, which is its lowest level since the election and below the 11% support it achieved in the election.

Support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Among other parties, New Zealand First is at 4% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan said the latest poll was "further good news" for National with the party rising for the fourth straight Morgan Poll and now well ahead of Labour/ Greens ( at a combined 39%, down 3.5%).

"The boost for PM John Key comes as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hit a five-year high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) at just under 90c AUD and amid rising optimism about the prospects for the New Zealand economy.

"The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is near a three year high at 119.8 in July while the ANZ Business Outlook shows business confidence at a 14 year high."

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36 Comments

by Stephen Hulme | 1st Aug 13, 9:25am 1375305904

The National Party could now govern alone, according to the latest Roy Morgan opinion poll, which shows the Government with 51% support.

In style they do already - Mugabe style.

by dh | 1st Aug 13, 9:59am 1375307940

Nobody much cares about the government spying on people (or for that matter, the government doing private deals with preferred partners [I think that's a pretty toxic combination]). In reality, while the ANZ business confidence survey is a rotten predictor of future growth and a terrible predictor of future employment (there is no wisdom of the crowds to see here), it is a really good indicator of the economy right now and a strong correlate to confidence in the government. This is in turn, a fairly good correlate to support for national.

With the most confidence since the 1990's I would describe this as somewhere near National's high water mark, and part of their problem is that to get there they have eaten their allies to the point of being non-viable. If their support slips, the only place for votes to go is to parties opposed to them rather than sympathetic parties with a different focus (though personally I think it is entirely imaginable that NZ First could make an accomodation with National).

by ngakonui gold | 1st Aug 13, 10:17am 1375309020

You are so right about the spy bill.Nobody cares.

I heard Tom Brokaw,former news anchor on NBC,say that you can either have privacy or the internet,you can'T have both.

by Wordsmith | 1st Aug 13, 10:24am 1375309498

Sorry guys but that is the worst attitude I have seen in a while - nobody cares that the freedoms that under pin our democracy are being eroded? Seriously the cynicism desplayed by you two is the problem - you take the word of Tom Brokaw as gospel? You really must be joking or seriously "mis informed".

by dh | 1st Aug 13, 10:42am 1375310563

Don't get me wrong, I think it appalling that people don't care. But, as people have demonstrated, most don't. This polling period includes the GCSB spy bill (though the spying on journalists revelations are at the very end of it) and the government's support has gone up.

If there is something I have tried to impart on my daughter, it is that everything you do on the internet is public. Pseudonyms just don't work if someone has enough data about your online activities.

by Stephen Hulme | 1st Aug 13, 10:48am 1375310893

Pseudonyms just don't work if someone has enough data about your online activities.

Exactly - so why do you bother?

by dh | 1st Aug 13, 12:40pm 1375317648

In my case it is abbreviation rather than pseudonymisation, and it was because with the various Davids working for interest.co.nz I thought it would cause less confusion. In retrospect, given David Hargreaves is sometimes refered to as dh, I should have opted for a full pseudonym.

by Boatman | 1st Aug 13, 11:03am 1375311784

I reckon John Key has done a sterling job keeping us out of trouble during the GFC , and thank God we did not have Labour at the helm during those awful times .

To liken his tenure to Robert Mugabe is ridiculous .

We are now seeing the outcome of Keys excellent hands- off free market policies ,

The economy is growing again , albeit slowly ,
Property is booming and construction is going to add 2% to GDP
The strong Kiwi$ has disadvantages , but its like our ' share price " and reflects good management and recognition by investors we are a good punt
We are likely to return to surplus by 2015/16
What more could we ask for in a Government ?

by philthy | 1st Aug 13, 11:27am 1375313260

So is taking a country that used to make record surpluses, and had among the lowest government debt in the world, to one that has never made a surplus in it's 2 terms yet, and now has drastically increased debt.

You appear to be crediting National with doing the opposite of what they have actually done.

The old GFC excuse has gone a long way for these guys.

The brain washing has worked well on you my friend.

by Happy123 | 1st Aug 13, 12:39pm 1375317547

Say hello to Norman for me philthy. Does the Green party pay you per post or is it just a daily rate?

by philthy | 1st Aug 13, 1:20pm 1375320049

Sorry what was that Gerry?

Better not criticise the government ay, how naughty, we know for a fact they are watching whoever they can now too don't we.

Feels like this country has gone back in time about 70 odd years.

by Devo79 | 2nd Aug 13, 1:11pm 1375405877

Philthy, your comments do not reflect the real world. You forget that there was a significant earthquake or two that had to be paid for.

If you take a good look around you will see that the economy is in great shape compared to many others. Australia, who we as a country have always been envious of, is going backwards. England is stuck in a huge whole, as is the entire EU. Yet little old NZ is trucking on. I agree that if Labour was at the helm of the waka then we would have sunk long ago.

Worst still to having Labour at the helm would be if we were to let Labour, Greens, NZ first and Mana Parties run the waka together. We would have half rowing towards the WINZ office give away money, a quarter refusing to row because the paddles weren't made of hemp, 1/8 of old people saying that we shouldn't let chinese or other asians on the waka and that because they are old they should be able to just enjoy the view in quiet rather than contribute and the remaining claiming the waka is theirs because their great great great granfather once rowed a waka and that everone else should be paying them money to sit in the back and drink beer.

You know National are doing a good job when all that the oposition can trow at them are policies designed to take us back to the soviet era, policies against free trade agreements, policies that they eventually revoke because they realise how stupid it was to print money and kicking up a fuss about getting spyed on. What have you go to hide? I think you will find that over 50% of the country don't have anything to hide , so as has been said, don't care!

You really think the country has gone back 70 years? If greens get in we are likely to be dinosaur food... That is how far they will take us back.

by midgetkiwi | 1st Aug 13, 2:10pm 1375323043

Better to be lucky than good eh boatman? Better to borrow to barely tread water than deal with underlying issues eh? gotta keep those boat people happy after all, otherwise who would vote?

by steven | 1st Aug 13, 2:15pm 1375323307

Well, where should I start, LOL.

In the short term, you are reasonably right on how well National has done....whether it was sound judgement or luck I guess we'll never know...certainly I really would have feared if Labour had been in.

I think we are still on for surplus in 2014 btw?

Ask for, well vision and leadership without blinkers and a fixation on the short term. We need to move on AGW and alternative energy. This govn is stuck in the old fossil fuel paradgm, because its easiest and pays obvious royalties as opposed to hard work and financial commitment/costs.

regards

by Gorgeous George | 1st Aug 13, 11:20am 1375312853

I think what people really don't care about is when the snooping is into the lives of those that use slyness and the media for their bread and butter, like journalists and the sleazy fat rat. NZers have an excellent sense of fair play, and if they thought the government were using their tools to oppress the average person, then it would be stopped.

by philthy | 1st Aug 13, 11:34am 1375313681

We'll if they don't realise it is going on by now then they are pretty stupid.

by midgetkiwi | 1st Aug 13, 2:07pm 1375322871

You're absolutely right about the first half of your comment. However, the second part about, "if they thought the government were using their tools to oppress the average person, then it would be stopped." is pretty naive. The point is more whether the law itself goes too far into potential abuse of human rights, not whether we collectively "think" a government is using it oppressively or ... "helpfully". Trusting current and any future governments in coming decades to never cross an arbitrary feeling line of what is oppression is how the nazi's managed to convince a whole country of relatively normal people that killing other humans is ok. One small step at a time, like a frog slowly boiling to death.

by Gorgeous George | 2nd Aug 13, 12:40pm 1375404023

Well, thank you for worrying about my boiled up naivetee, but your concern is misplaced, I don't need nannies looking after my civil liberties. Its a different world we live in today, and you need to source your own insurance, the government can't provide it to you through legislation. The usefulness of the kind of spying you're worried about died with the cold war. The NZ government couldn't care less about you unless you are a menace to a free society, foreign governments and the private businesses that track you should be more of a worry. For example, tools that are now easily available (and mostly free) to all should form part of your insurance: encryption for your online activities, don't use google or other data gathering networks, have hard and soft firewalls, don't have a landline, use public cell networks for data only, use encrypted VoIP, pay cash for purchases, and keep a small office shredder for any paperwork you plan to tip in the garbage. Any of these measures will hide far more information about you than the government could ever gather using Maxwell Smart techniques. If I got the faintest whiff of totalitarianism in NZ, I'd be a founding member of the resistance, but I don't. You ought to find out more about people before you make assumptions about them; in my case that won't be possible.

by Wordsmith | 1st Aug 13, 12:05pm 1375315552

They are planning to infringe on the rights we take for granted - these are the rights that are part of our democracy, our way of life - what could be more important than this? You may not exercise these rights often, but that doesn't mean they are not important / vaulable. Stop this bill for the sake of our children - govt has no business spying on the people - none. Those who would sacrifice freedom for security deserve neither ... sure there are bad people, but there has always been bad people ... its the good people that matter and those who say nothing to hide nothing to fear are missing the point - this bill will give you plenty to fear - they will be able to hold info on you for your lifetime and then wheel out the bits they want should you find yourself in trouble - god knows we have a great history in NZ of putting innocent people behind bars!

by ngakonui gold | 1st Aug 13, 12:40pm 1375317647

You are right.

There are bad people out there.

Maybe they only make up a small percentage of our population but they create 100% of the crime.

by Stephen Hulme | 1st Aug 13, 1:53pm 1375322006

Maybe they only make up a small percentage of our population but they create 100% of the crime.

Yep, and they may become our leaders due to a collective failure to execute due diligence. Then what? - it's too late, once the tools are in place, as they were in East Germany.

by Von | 1st Aug 13, 2:13pm 1375323232

Agree Stephen, maybe New Zealanders (especially younger ones) need reminding ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasi

by Boatman | 1st Aug 13, 3:36pm 1375328211

Oh Come on you guys ... do you really think that the NZ Govt would ever do anything to harm one of its citizens?

New Zealand , this benign place where the Police are unarmed , call criminals and other petty offenders "SIR" , where the politicians actually respect the Third Estate , where we have every conceivable freedom you can imagine.

New Zealand , officially recognised the least corrupt country on the planet

All you malcontents should live somewhere else for a while , even Australian authority is more ruthless than us , and you dont have to go far to get the real sense of authority invading your space try Indonesia , Malaysia , Thailand .

I have lived and worked in Zimbabwe , where you cannot even take photos of the streetscene on Samora Machel Avenue without being arrested , travelled in Mozambique , where the police earn thier salary by taking spot fines , Zambia and Malawi where corrpution and fear are rife.

Spend some time in Egypt , Syria , Jordan or Saudi where everthing you do is monitored and where women are treated as chattels

Our spying laws are there to protect us and help our allies in the war on terror , and should be welcomed

by powerdownkiwi | 1st Aug 13, 3:53pm 1375329235

What an interesting piece of propagandist drivel.

How about some truths?

The USA is the biggest terrorist nation on the planet. That's what Empires do. They repress others, and grab their resources. There is no plan b.

When whistle-blowers sound the alarm, they're bullied and silenced. You call Guantanamo Bay something to do with freedom?

And when the repressed fight back - they've no other proactive option - they're 'terrorists', and we all wave flags singing 'land of the free'.

Spare me.

by iconoclast | 1st Aug 13, 4:34pm 1375331659

Indeedy

What do they call it .. the land of the free .. the Star Spangled Banner - Stars and Stripes

where you can buy an arsenal

splatter gun your neighbourhood school

kill a black kid wearing a hoodie taking iceream home to his mother

blow up buildings

destroy peoples lives

turn middle of the road people into trailer trash

do an enron

cannibalise the lower socio-economic

where they can't and won't prosecute a single felon over the made-in-america GFC

yet whistle-a-happy-tune on a whistle, and

they go after you like a rat up a drain-pipe, and

bam, 130 years in the slammer, for whistling

by Basel Brush III | 1st Aug 13, 6:39pm 1375339183

They are incredibly good at spreading their contagion to anywhere and expect others to lick their boots at every available opportunity.

Then there is financing that other bastion of liberty- Israel

by Gummy Bear Hero | 2nd Aug 13, 12:54pm 1375404885

There's a " war on terror " ? ....... gosh .... I do hope our American friends have better luck with that than their " war on drugs ".... or their " war on poverty " ..... ummmmm , and the " war on Iraq "..... seriously got their arse kicked there .....

.... jeepers , they do like to rumble alot , don't they ...

Meebee we Kiwis should just settle down in our lazyboys , and watch the Yankees' progress , .... have a gummy bear or two , while the " war " rages .....

by steven | 1st Aug 13, 5:58pm 1375336710

The spying laws are there to not make it a criminal offence to spy on a NZ person over a civil matter.

regards

by steven | 1st Aug 13, 5:58pm 1375336725

The spying laws are there to not make it a criminal offence to spy on a NZ person over a civil matter.

regards

by steven | 1st Aug 13, 6:12pm 1375337546

Yes I do, I dont think JK wouldnt blink if there was a conflict between say a NZ citezen and being dis-advantaged aginst the USA say.....not for one second.

regards

by midgetkiwi | 2nd Aug 13, 11:58am 1375401515

"Oh Come on you guys ... do you really think that the NZ Govt would ever do anything to harm one of its citizens?"

wow Boatman, can't tell if you are serious, being sacarstic, delusional, or a patriotic American! All governments ALWAYS do things that harm its citizens, which is why no political party gets 100% of votes. Governments will do whatever it takes, to different degrees, to get re-elected, not looking after individuals.

"New Zealand , officially recognised the least corrupt country on the planet" - Didn't we get kicked off the whitelist as a country that has money laundering going on? Which planet or leaf do you live on? I wanna go too.

by dh | 1st Aug 13, 4:15pm 1375330500

From todays Herald,

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10906598

So it looks like the NZSIS have been spying on New Zealand journalists, and won't reveal the details because doing so would "New Zealand in danger or upset international relations". Since no New Zealander journalists seem to have been arrested at the behest of our intelligence partners, you seem to feel that it has been OK.

I agree we haven't had a government that personally victimised people since Muldoon, but we did have one, and since we had one in the past (and very popular in it's day National was then) we could have one in the future.

[opps, intended as reply to Boatman]

by delboy | 1st Aug 13, 6:20pm 1375338009

I dont believe the average NZer really cares much about this GCSB and the changes. Most are too busy putting food on the table to worry about conspiracy theories.

What would help is if Labour concentrated on the average persons issues ie like National cutting snapper limits to 3 per person. Labour could start to win back the working man by tackling things like this.

Also cut ties with the Greens. They need to drop the PC brigade and get back to their roots, the workers of NZ.

by Wordsmith | 1st Aug 13, 8:22pm 1375345365

Delboy - thats the point - we are too busy and that is why we need a free press - to inform us of goings on. Digestable information that allows us to make a decision on policies and politics. As for the working man - forget it pal - the working man is not of interest until the working man pays attention and makes a stand .. so by definition your percieved apathy towards the GCSB and "ch ch ch changes" is the root of the problem - after all, in a demoacracy - You ARE the boss :)

by Kate | 1st Aug 13, 10:42pm 1375353759

Lots likening it to the Muldoon years but I think the difference is he over ruled the courts (after persons had exercised their right to access the court) by enacting retrospective legislation regards the Clyde Dam.

JK is using regulation and legislation to preemptively deny NZers the right to challenge goverment decisions in the courts - he is breaking the constitution and the rule of law - and on more than one occasion. Don't recall the Law Society speaking out at all in the past.

But, better explained by our NZer of the Year;

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10897497

by dh | 5th Aug 13, 4:20pm 1375676445

Though I haven't seen it covered here yet, the Colmar Brunton poll just out put the Nats on 46% down 3% since their last poll (and 5% different to the Roy Morgan poll that came out four days ago). While the volatility of NZ polls can generate a lot of comments, it is important not to read too much into them.