New Zealand had its biggest monthly net inflow of migrants for 10 years in October, according to Statistics New Zealand.
During the month the country recorded a seasonally adjusted net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 3000 migrants.
The last time net migration was this high was over 10 years ago, in June 2003 (also 3000).
The net gain has increased in recent months due to fewer people departing to live in Australia, as well as more arriving migrants.
After a small seasonally-adjusted net loss of migrants in December last year, every month subsequently has recorded a net inflow. In all but one month this year, the seasonally-adjusted gain has been higher than the previous month, with the latest month's gain obviously being the biggest yet.
If the average seasonally-adjusted net gains over the past three months are annualised, this gives a current rate of inbound migration of a touch under 32,000 a year, which is heading toward historic high levels.
The Christchurch rebuild has seen more people coming in on work-related visas, while the fewer numbers going to Australia reflect that fact that at the moment the Australian economy is not viewed favourably compared with New Zealand's immediate prospects.
The strong pace of net inbound migration will inevitably put more pressure on New Zealand's heated housing market, particularly in the very hot Auckland market - as generally around half inbound migrants settle in the country's largest city, at least initially.
ASB economist Daniel Smith said that particularly noticeable over the past few months had been a strong increase in the number of migrants arriving in the Auckland region.
"Arrivals to the region rose a further 5.6% mom in October, to be 19% higher than a year ago. By contrast, arrivals to Christchurch seem to have stabilised over the last three months. Clearly, the Canterbury rebuild is not the only driver of strong migration inflows.
"Strong migration gains, especially in Auckland, will add further pressure to some of NZ’s supply-constrained housing markets. That is part of the reason that we expect only a gradual slowing in house price inflation over the coming year. We continue to expect that the [Official Cash Rate] will first rise in March 2014."
Deutsche Bank New Zealand chief economist Darren Gibbs said that the Reserve Bank would view recent trends with some concern "given that population growth will drive further demand in the housing market, especially in Auckland".
The seasonally adjusted net loss of 900 migrants to Australia in October 2013 was just up from the previous month (800 in September 2013). Apart from this small increase this October, the net loss to Australia has fallen every month since December 2012 (3300).
In the October 2013 year, New Zealand had a net gain of 17,500 migrants, compared with a net loss of 2,300 in the previous year. The latest figure is above the average annual net gain of 11,300 migrants over the last 20 years (1993–2012).
In the latest year, New Zealand's net loss to Australia dropped to 23,500 migrants, compared with 39,300 a year earlier. Net gains were recorded from most other countries, led by the United Kingdom (5900), China (5500), and India (5200).
Unadjusted figures showed that 92,100 migrants arrived in the October 2013 year, up 9% from the October 2012 year (84,300). Migrant departures numbered 74,700, down 14% from the previous year (86,700).
The highest net inflow ever recorded was 42,500 in the May 2003 year. The highest net outflow was 43,600 in the July 1979 year.
Net long term migration
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7 Comments
How do they count arrivals from say the Phillipines who arrive with a holiday visa , and then look for and find work , and then get a work visa ?
Are these regarded as permanent migrants ( with a work visa) or are they regarded as temporary residents like the student visa?
Although most don't see it that way. Politics is about the numbers, the numbers have to be reasonable to get back in, it certainly is a minority of kiwis that truly benefit. A good number will vote based on the feel good factor of their homes increasing in value but that is just a relativity/illusionary gain.
Auckland voters will decide all.
Note how bank economists have an inflated positioning being percieved as impartial. Compare that to the independant Savings Working group.
Immigration and tax breaks for investment in residential property are being cited as the underlying causes of steep increases in the cost of housing over the past decade.
New Zealand now boasts one of the highest rates of home unaffordability in the world as a result of prices rising far faster than incomes, and the government's Savings Working Group blames that squarely on the policies of successive governments.
Although "the favourable tax treatment of property investment" accounted for about 50% of house price increases between 2001 and 2007, the working group said, there was also strong evidence that rapid swings in immigration brought about price-rise "shocks".
There was a sharp spike in immigration in 2001, 2002 and 2003 and, said working group committee member Dr Andrew Coleman, it appeared that property prices did not fall anywhere near as greatly when immigration fell again.
The report added that there was little evidence that immigration boosted local incomes. In fact, the need to build roads and schools meant that net migration contributed to the national deficit.
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