Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of another fall in the GlobalDairyTrade auction this morning.
But first, there was a dramatic rise in the New Zealand currency overnight ahead of today's employment numbers for the March quarter.
The rises by the Kiwi were against all currencies.
Against the US dollar, the Kiwi rose 80 bps to sit at 87.6 USc this morning, its highest level since August 2011. It is still below the record post-float high of 88.2 set back then.
Against the Aussie dollar, we are up marginally to 93.6 AUc, but still a way off the record post float high of 95.5 AUc set in December 2005.
But because it has been broad-based, our TWI has now reached 81.1 a record high post-float in 1985.
Also overnight, the latest Fonterra dairy auction results are out. They show another decline but only by -1.1% this time in US dollars. In NZ dollars however, the decline was -2.5%. That means, in NZ dollar terms, dairy prices at these auctions have fallen -27.5% since the beginning of the year. In US dollars the drop is -22%. Compared with the same time a year ago, the falls slightly less at -21% in NZD and almost -19% in US dollars.
Elsewhere, the US reported a narrower trade deficit as exports rose, but it was not enough to affect their economy.
China's banking regulators are getting skittish about lending practices. There were two warnings from them out overnight.
The OECD has downgraded its global growth forecast for this year on weakening prospects for emerging economies, pinning most of the growth hopes on the major developed countries, especially the US. It has also 'warned' Australia not to overdo their upcoming budget adjustments. The RBA left its cash rate target unchanged late yesterday afternoon.
New York equity markets have fallen today in late afternoon trade, down -0.7% with tech stocks under the most pressure. Gold is marginally weaker, the oil price is essentially unchanged. Benchmark UST 10 yr bond yields are lower by about 1 bps at 2.60% in late trade.
So the main news today is that we start with the NZ dollar up even further overnight, now at 87.6 USc, also up against the Aussie at 93.6 AUc and the TWI is just a fraction under 81.1.
If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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5 Comments
http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/piketty-dikitty-rikitty/
A man who gets it. I'm told Bennett goes close in the NBR, too.
Yes I think he gets it, a totally bang on piece IMHO...and nails PK at the same time.
regards
Lets say we target inflation at 2%.
So a rough calculation,
Non-tradeable is 4% ish inflation and 1/2 our economy, so the other half of our economy, the tradeable 1/2 has to have 0% inflation, or deflate 2% in inflation corrected terms to compensate.
Just how successful we can be in having 1/2 our economy in constant deflation for years if not a decade plus without having it fall over and drag the lot down is it seems an experiment we are hell bent on undertaking.
Meanwhile un-employment is still at 6%, wages are going no where, and CPI is flat.
regards
- “Deepwater spending has had growth at a 12 percent+ compounded rate over the past five years and has been the best and most secular growth sector in oilfield services. But while spending has increased, production hasn’t, and today, we think that deepwater is now the second-highest marginal costs per barrel of oil produced behind Canadian oil sands. So the oil companies have decided what to do: they are going to focus on growing returns rather than production.”
-- James Wicklund, Credit Suisse LLC, managing director of energy research
"event risk" and if this and similar comments dont tell you how its going to go in a few short years and that you should take this into consideration, as opposed to a currency blip, I guess there is littlel else to say.
Except its like saying oh isnt the grass a bit tired for the next 10metres when there is the grand canyon 100m off....oh and its empty of water as that got used for the tar sands...hurt.
regards
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