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FX rigging in London; India dampens possible trade agreement; NZ swap rates fall; oil and gold down, equities higher; NZ$1 = US$0.868, TWI = 80.8

FX rigging in London; India dampens possible trade agreement; NZ swap rates fall; oil and gold down, equities higher; NZ$1 = US$0.868, TWI = 80.8

Here's my summary of the key news over the weekend in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of a new hard look at allegations of rigging in currency markets in London.

But first, today we get migration data for June and on Thursday all eyes will be on the OCR review by the Reserve Bank. Falling dairy prices , low real estate volumes and retreating international exchange rates will be balanced against the inflation risks in the New Zealand economy. It's also heading into the election campaign.

The chances of the expected and signaled rise on Thursday are diminishing according to observers. But they have not disappeared.

In London, the British are about to launch a criminal investigation into alleged rigging of the $5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange markets in London. It's a first on the criminal front and will target the banks based in the City. Fireworks are expected.

In Sydney at the G20 Trade Minister meeting, it is not the Ukraine that is dominating the meeting but India. The expected final agreement on the so-called Bali package is now unlikely because of new concerns being raised by India.

In New York, yields on benchmark UST 10 yr bonds held at 2.48% despite escalations in the Ukraine and Gaza risks. But the NZ swap rates fell and fell quite sharply. This is on top of the Thursday falls. The one year didn't move, but from two to ten years there was a sharp flattening with the drop. The two year interest swap rate is now at 4.10%, a level it has not been at in well over a month. The five year rate is now at 4.51%, down from 4.65% just three days ago.

The US oil prices fell slightly after Thursday's run-up but the US-Brent premium narrowed further. Gold lost US$6/oz and ended the week at US$1,316/oz. Equities on the other hand rose in late Friday trade.

And we start the week with the NZ dollar lower. We are now just under 86.8 USc, at 92.6 AUc. The TWI is just under 80.8.

If you want to catch up with all the changes on Friday we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ
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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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1 Comments

Regardless of our counter-global RBNZ the overall trend for interest rates is down/flat. 

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