90 seconds at 9 am: US engine accelerates

Strong US durable goods orders, factories humming; US confidence rising; iron ore prices slump; AU confidence holds; UST 10y 2.39%; NZ$1 = US$0.83.3, TWI = 78.7

27th Aug 14, 7:34am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of some remarkably strong US economic data.

New orders for durable goods in US factories posted their biggest gain on record in July on strong international demand for aircraft. Shipments and unfilled order levels were also surprisingly strong. And the previous month's data was all revised up. The underlying trends are positive - and actually quite impressive - pointing to brisk American economic growth.

This was supported by the Richmond Fed's August factory survey of the mid-Atlantic states where manufacturing expansion is reported to be widespread.

However, the US housing market isn't showing the same gains. Single-family home prices fell in June and disappointed expectations, according to the closely-watched Case-Shiller indexes which were out overnight.

Despite this, American consumer confidence rose in August to its highest level since October 2007 on improved feelings about the current state of the economy, according to the Conference Board report released overnight.

In China - and in an indication of just how big the place is - police have seized over 30,000 tonnes of tainted chicken feet - common on restaurant menus in China - in the latest food scandal to hit the country.

The price of iron ore continues its slump and it now looks like prices for this basic commodity may retreat to 2009 levels. Australia has an advantage over other suppliers because it is the low-cost supplier so it is still worth doing business at these levels, but others are dropping out. For Australia, volume trumps price on the way down.

And maybe that is why consumer confidence is quite resilient in the 'lucky country' in August.

US equities can't close above the S&P500 index 2000 level again today, although the flirting continues.

UST 10yr benchmark bond yields fell today and is currently at 2.39%.

The US oil price remains basically unchanged at just over US$93/barrel. Brent is also basically unchanged at just over US$102/barrel. Gold had a small rise overnight and is now at US$1,284/oz.

We start today on the currency front just marginally weaker than where we ended yesterday. We are just above 83.3 USc, 89.5 AUc, and the TWI is at 78.7.

If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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2 Comments

by Uninterested | 27th Aug 14, 9:16am 1409087798

On a totally different topic: has anyone else had a letter sent to them by their bank. In my case Westpac saying that "In Jan 2015 new regulations are coming into force.... we are introducing a new term deposit early withdrawl policy.....you have to either give us 32 days notice and accept a reduction in interest, or you have to demonstrate personal hardship and accept a reduction in interest".

!!!

I am not convinced that a regulation would be the cause of this??? Is this more likely to be bank internal policy: the bank wanting term deposits to be "more sticky". And it is being done by the banks own decision?

More sticky so that a run on the bank is less likely.

This does not sound good. Are other banks doing this?

Maybe a column needs to be put alongside your interest rate tables showing the banks early withdrawl policy.

Daily interest savings accounts may be a safer bet than term deposits in future.

by @tony | 27th Aug 14, 10:43am 1409092989

Mother In law had a term deposit and a "nicer" bank said she could take out 1 withdrawl every 3 months (from memory so dont take as fact). I am pretty sure I did the same a while back (when I had some money - tip: Keep Mrs and Kids away from horses!!)...

If you take out a term deposit; it's for a term right.. I would expect a penalty.

With a certain Insurance Company (most I expect) if you enter a 10 year plan (the $x a month kind) and "cash in" before the end (surrendering the policy) you can lose as much as 100% bonus as you forfeit the terminal bouns; Its often better to get the surrender value and borrow against that off the bank than lose the terminal bonus. Companies also exist that will pay you out the surrender value and then you have to assign the "final" proceeds to them.

As for them trying to say its the goverments fault; who doesn't; but they better be able to stand behind the claim... Get onto Fair Go; they like sticking up for the little guys.