sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; lower home loan rates, lower swap rates, less high LVR lending, exports soft, NZ's rating affirmed, NZD starts to rise again

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; lower home loan rates, lower swap rates, less high LVR lending, exports soft, NZ's rating affirmed, NZD starts to rise again
For Tuesday, August 26, 2014. <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank hit the market today with a market-leading 2 yr rate of 5.89%. This was followed by Westpac offering 6.19% for 3 years, the best of the big banks for this term (although SBS Bank has better pricing). Most big bank cash-back offers may expire in a few days.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There have been no savings or term deposit rate changes again today.

NOT THAT INTERESTED, THANKS
Believe it or not, but the July LVR data out from the RBNZ today shows the high LVR lending is falling, not growing, as a percent of all lending. In July, banks made high (non-exempt) LVR commitments of $301 million out of total commitments of $4.684 bln. That's only 6.5%, where as in June the proportion was 6.7%. Banks don't seem to be interested in filling up on high LVR clients anymore. They could go to 10%.

WEAK EXPORTS WORSEN TRADE DEFICIT
Today's trade balance came in worse than expected. July is often the low point of the year and lower volumes combined with lower commodity prices didn't help this year. The market was expecting a -$475 mln deficit. They got a -$692 mln deficit. Still, that was less than for the same month a year ago, and the year before that. It could have been worse and some observers suggest export timing may have been behind the outcome and it will improve from here. On an annual basis, we are still posting good results.

LIKE THE WEATHER, PITY ABOUT THE LAMB PRICES
Beef and venison schedule prices are starting to rise again, but lamb prices remain flat, which is disappointing many farmers, especially as the weather remains very favourable for this time of year. Those on contract may be doing better however.

SOVEREIGN RATING CONFIRMED
Standard & Poor's said today it has affirmed its 'AA' foreign currency long-term rating and 'AA+' local currency long-term rating on New Zealand. They also affirmed the local and foreign currency short-term ratings at 'A-1+'. The rating outlook remains stable. The Transfer & Convertibility assessment remains 'AAA'. "The ratings on New Zealand reflect the country's fiscal and monetary policy flexibility, economic resilience, public policy stability, and sound financial sector. Moderating these strengths are New Zealand's very high external imbalances, along with its high household and agriculture sector debt; and dependence on commodity income."

NATIONAL PROMISES MORE RURAL BROADBAND INVESTMENT
National’s Communications and Information Technology spokeswoman, Amy Adams, today announced a re-elected National-led Government will establish a new $150 million fund to extend the Rural Broadband Initiative.

WHOLESALE RATES
Swap rates were down significantly today in a strong flattening bias. One year rates fell -1 bps, two rates fell -3 bps, and three, four and five year rates fell -4 bps and seven and ten year swaps fell -5 bps. the two-ten spread is down to just 57 bps; the one-five spread is just 51 bps. That's the lowest they have been since late 2012. The 90 day bank bill rate remained at 3.69%.

OUR CURRENCY
Check our real-time charts here. The NZ dollar is now at 83.5 USc, now at 89.8 AUc and the TWI is at 78.7. Although they were a little lower earlier in the day, the late-trading trend is higher as the fear of the trade balance data wears off.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

1 Comments

Banks are well aware that interest rates are trending down (hence the call to fix), and are well aware that house prices are falling everywhere (other than Auckland, which may be soon)  so are not keen to lend at high ratios. 

Will houses prices be propped up by rate cuts? Or by buying stimulus as the FHBers return under KS deposit rules?  

A homeowner buying at 90% finance in Palmerston North may soon be underwater.  That homeowner may be struggling with repayments going to  8% if this eventuates.  

Up
0