Polls close; National needs over 47% to win third term with same partners, or will need support from either Winston Peters or Colin Craig to govern again

Polls close; National needs over 47% to win third term with same partners, or will need support from either Winston Peters or Colin Craig to govern again

By Bernard Hickey

National has won a third consecutive term in Government with its existing support partners (ACT, Maori and United Future) after the Labour/Green block lost three seats and the Internet Mana and Conservative parties failed to get into Parliament.

National's vote increased despite (or perhaps because of) the 'Dirty Politics' saga and controversy over the GCSB that overwhelmed debate about other issues, and appeared to have encouraged National's supporters to get out and vote.

"Three more years," Prime Minister John Key said at the start of his victory speech. The crowd at National's victory function chanted back: "Three more years."

"This is a victory for those that kept the faith. This is a victory for those who refused to be distracted and knew that a vote for National was a vote for a brighter future," Key said in his victory speech in Auckland.

The Electoral Commission's Results website reported at 11.40 pm that with 99.9% of the vote counted National was on 48.06% (61 seats), Labour was on 24.69% (32 seats), Green was on 10.02% (13 seats) and New Zealand First was on 8.85% (11 seats).

Maori (1.29%) won 2 seats, including Leader Te Ururoa Flavell in Wairiki and one list MP. ACT's David Seymour won Epsom, but the party did not win any list seats because it only received 0.69%. United Future's Peter Dunne won the Ohariu electorate.

The combination of 61 National MPs plus its three support parties (4 seats) gave it a clear majority in the 121 seat Parliament. This was almost exactly the same as in 2011, when National with 59 MPs governed with 5 support MPs (3 Maori, 1 ACT and 1 United Future).

Labour lost two MPs and Green lost one MP.

Key earlier told reporters he did not plan to call New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters to ask for his support. He later said he planned to stay on to run for a fourth term and said Labour Leader David Cunliffe had been a tough competitor: "I have a lot of respect for him."

Key made special mention in his victory speech of Finance Minister Bill English, who he called the best finance minister in the developed world, and National Party pollster and blogger David Farrar.

Cunliffe vows to stay

Cunliffe conceded defeat in a speech just before 11 pm, saying he had called John Key to congratulate him on remaining Prime Minister. However, he showed no signs of resigning and said the campaign for the 2017 election started tonight and Labour needed to rebuild its organisation. He later told reporters he would stay on as leader and planned to renew the party.

Conservative fell short of the 5% threshold and Internet Mana failed to get into Parliament as Hone Harawira lost his Te Tai Tokerau seat to Labour's Kelvin Davis by more than 1,100 votes. Maori, Labour and National recommended their supporters vote for Davis to prevent Harawira from dragging Internet Mana into Parliament.

Conservative received 4.13% and failed to get over the 5% threshold necessary under MMP.

Dotcom blames himself

Kim Dotcom was quoted as blaming himself for the failure of Internet Mana to get into Parliament.

"I’m sorry to say this, but we lost because of me," Dotcom was quoted as saying.

Labour candidate Stuart Nash won the Napier seat with more than 3,000 votes more than National's Wayne Walford as Conservative candidate Garth McVicar split the vote.

Labour's Hutt South candidate Trevor Mallard was over 300 votes ahead of National's Chris Bishop with 97% of the vote counted.

Labour MP Clayton Cosgrove lost to National's Matt Doocey in Waimakiriri, while Labour list MP Andrew Little has missed out, being too low on the list.

Tweets of the night

Finlay Macdonald just before David Cunliffe's concession speech:

If this guy apologises for being a Labour leader ...

Lew after David Cunliffe appeared not to acknowledge the scale of the defeat in his concession speech:

"But a flesh wound!" -- David Cunliffe

Election Satire after David Cunliffe's concession speech:

Labour "decimated?" Cunliffe: "No, I think we've gone down by more than 10%"

Hugh Sundae on Conservative's failure to get into Parliament:

BREAKING: Colin Craig reportedly lightly smacking advisors.

Raybon Kan:

So with this election result does WhaleOil get a knighthood?!?

David Farrar on what John Key might say:

If John Key makes a victory speech tonight, will he thank Kim Dotcom first?

Juha Saarinen during a TV3 interview with Steven Joyce, who had a strange blue dot projected on his forehead:

"Fess up, who's got a laser pointed onto Joyce's forehead?"

Craig Lucinsky replied: "Judith"

Taika Waititi on the likely National win:

Cheer up - it can't get any better.

Stephen Franks:

RMA reform coming. Gratitude of NZ people due to to N Hager, Herr Schmitz and Journalists of NZ.

Simon Wong on the vibe in the National party event:

The Nats supporters REALLY like Kelvin Davis. Cheers louder than last time

Jane Patterson on the likely fallout at the bottom of the Labour list:

On current numbers @AndrewLittleMP @MaryanStreetMP and @MoanaMackey out of Parliament

Shayne Currie on the result:

National (currently 48.2%) likely to register highest party vote of any party since MMP started in 1996 - previous highest 47.31% in 2011

Bill Bennett on the result:

Has anyone tweeted about leaving NZ yet? Not a real election until that happens

Anthony Green on the Civilian Party:

Civilian Party coming last with 187 votes. Their policy to give a llama to all children in poverty clearly was not popular

Sam Hill on Peter Dunne:

Legalise Cannabis beating United Future. People like the real stuff not synthetic.

Craig McCulloch on Peter Dunne:

Aaaaand now the 1080 Party has edged ahead of Peter Dunne's United Future too

(Updated regularly with fresh results)

See all my previous election diaries here.

See the index for Interest.co.nz's special election policy comparison pages here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

120 Comments

Updated with early turnout high:
The weather was poor, which may have affected turnout on the day, but early voting was much higher in this election than in previous ones. The Electoral Commission reported that 717,579 votes were cast by the end of Friday, more than double at the same point in 2011.

Updated at 7.39:
 
The Electoral Commission's Results website reported at 7.39 pm with 15.5% of the votes counted that National was on 48%, Labour was on 24%, Green was on 10% and New Zealand First was on 9%.

oi !!  why arent you twittering ???

As of 7:56pm National are 1.5% down on the early vote count compared to last election.

At the moment I'm saying ACT 1, United Future 1, Maori 2, Conservatives 0. National are effectively going to get a 2% point boost from the no conservatives (so the seats are distributed on the basis of the vote that got in)

FYI updated with:
The Electoral Commission's Results website reported at 8.08 pm that with 19% of the vote counted National was on 48%, Labour was on 24%, Green was on 10% and New Zealand First was on 9%. Conservative was on 4.4%.

The Electoral Commission's Results website reported at 8.20 pm that with 21% of the vote counted National was on 48.6%, Labour was on 23.8%, Green was on 10% and New Zealand First was on 9.1%. Conservative was on 4.4%.

Correction. Weather was magnifcent in Dunedin up until when I flew out at 12.00. Beautiful in Christchurch and Tolerable in Auckland late afternoon..

FYI updated with Colin Craig appearing to concede that Conservative would not get over 5%.
cheers
Bernard

Updated with Hone Harawira behind Davis with 45% counted. That would mean Internet Mana wouldn't make it into Parliament.
cheers
Bernard

Party votes count , and that means the Conservatives miss out , again ..... and it also means that Labour get all it's old Clark era incumbents in , but no fresh blood , 6 years down , and still no sign of rejuvenation amongst the Labour team ...
 
... go Kelvin Davis ! .... go you good thing ... 'bye 'bye Kimmy Dotdum & your $ millions .... nyahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!!

Not look good for an effective opposition..

Commentators beginning to call it for National.

give Winston credit, him directing his support in the North to vote for the Labour candidate has killed Internet Mana.

The saddest thing I see is as Speckles has said, no effective opposition. I do not like the look of the next 3 years one little but. What a stupid country for allowing this to happen, effective opposition is just as important as anything else.
A real pity that Hone Harawira will not be back, he ruined his chances hooking up with Dotcom and I lay the blame for this fairly and squarely at KDCs feet. No matter what you think of where Hone's politics lies, his heart is in the right place.
It is shame that ACT and UF are there by means of cynical manipulation of the voting public. The word sheeple seems to be a very apt descriptor here
This is very bad news for those in the middle and at the bottom of the heap, I hold out zero hope for their situation to improve over the next 3 years.
The TPPA might wake NZs ideas up
Labour will need to do some very serious soul searching
 
 

I also find it very sad that there may be but one voice speaking solely for Maori. 

True. one voice for racist representation in politics is too many.  They need to remove the racial/tribal requirement for Maori rolls

The country will not be stupid for long when you are here to put eveyone right raegun.

New Zealanders vote for more of the same. Hone shot himself in the foot by joining with KDC. Winston and Labour played nicely into National's hand in Northland. Epsom continues with its reputation of the Fixed Electorate. And finally a very happy ending for Hollywood.

I can't believe how stupid the nz public are.

Don't worry PeakEverything, you are here to make everyone clever again.

.... aha ha haaaaaaa .... it took awhile , but the penny eventually dropped .... very succinct Mr Landlord ..... heeee heeeeee heeeeeeeee ....

Took you a while, did it, Gummy? Good thing that "PeakEverything [is] here to make [you] clever again"... ;-)

Peak Everything pompously thinks almost everyone is dumb but him.
Gummy doesn't.
Gummy doesn't need to learn anything from Peak Everything.

... Justin Case anyone's been near a supermarket this weekend , the folks knocking you up for a donation are from the Al Heimer's Association ...
 
Yes , it's International world's Alzheimers .... ummm ... day !!!
 
... so ... ahhhh .. go forth any multiply ..... Good luck with the election next week .... Bob ... or is it Marie ?
 
Anyhoo .... congratulations ... I hope it's a boy ! .... are those my feet ? .... damn , where's me fecking custard ? ....

Well obviously if I was Supreme Overlord of New Zealand I would have everything sorted out quick smart.  
 
My "stupid" comment wasn't referring to my fellow Interest.co.nz readers however.  While I may disagree with some of the right wing views on here I certainly respect your right to make them and the thinking that goes behind it.  When I refer to the "public" I am talking about the people who don't take the time to understand the policies and make their decisions based on policy and issues of corruption but simply on "Team Key" type thinking.  
 
 
 
 

... do they call them Harp Seals because they can play musical instruments ?

I agree PeakEverything - it's unbelievable that 24.7% voted for more money to be stolen from them through higher taxes and CGT, and for a party with no clear sense of direction led by a disingenuous rich guy who tries to pretend to care for people from Struggle Street…

@Peakeverything , so half of all Kiwi voters are stupid?
[Insult deleted. Don't do it. Ed] ... some 65% of the 78% who voted cant all be stupid  
[ deleted ]
Anyone seeing the offensive behaviour  of the left in the campaign was spurred to voting for John Key or further right .
Then offerring to introduce and charge  us 5 new taxes when we are already struggling to meet our current tax commitments was sure to scare any taxpaying voter to death .

I explained my comment above.  I certainly don't think you are stupid (although simplfying the issue to 5 new taxes is an example of lazy thinking)  just misguided.  

Updated with National set to win election:
National appears to have won a third term in its own right with its existing support partners with almost 90% of the vote counted.

The real estate agents will be busy at the open homes tomorrow after this impressive national win. Clearly housing affordability was not the election issue it was made out to be and there will be no capital gains tax or any other fiddling with the real estate market for the next 3 years and probably the 3 years after that too. Should be a surge in prices in Auckland off the back of this election result over the next 12 months. 

BigBlue I think you are right re no fiddling with the real estate market for the next 3 years and if it is not corrected over the longer term (6 years +) NZ will change into a property owning aristocracy.
 
The aristocrats will not be as recognisable as in the past. Some will speak in mangled English. Some will come from humble backgrounds -but only if they can be relied on to faithfully serve the aristocrat class.
 
Kiwis life chances will be heavily influenced by whether they own or inherit property.
 
Another chance to reform our economy especially our urban economies has been lost. While so much unproductive capital is wasted on bidding up existing property then their is litttle capital doing the hard yards of supporting the genuine productive economy. This makes us vulnerable and weaker than we should be.
 
I don't celebrate the situtation like you do BigBlue. In fact I am very sad.
 
No blame can be attributed Interest.co.nz because this is a site of informed and open debate.
 
I hope for the next election kiwis are not distracted by the Hagers and the Kim Dotcoms. That Hager in particular stops writing books for release just prior to elections. If he genuinely wants to be a respected investigative journalist then he writes his books based on timeframe of the research with no eye on election dates.

Actually not stupid. The average NZer could see right through IMP. In a strange way I respected Hone's fight for his people but when he joined with KDC he lost all credibility and pays the price.

Totally agree on the cause, agree about Hone and what he was evolving in to. Big, big mistake when he hooked up with Dotcom, I could see that at the time and my heart sunk when he did. But still stupid to give Natl so much rope. There are several things about them that sends cold chill up my spine

Basically, it all boils down to labour voters voting NZ first. Doesn't look like there will need to be any change in support parties (though that could change).

You could be bang on

This is the fourth successive election in which NZ Labour's share of the party vote has declined !
 
... they will not arrest this decline by hanging onto Cunliffe and his old brigade , Cosgrove , King , Parker , Goofy , Mallard ....
 
I can't believe how intelligent the NZ public are ... they have not allowed the dirty tricks from the left , and the Dotdum lunacy , to de-rail them from making a sound judgement about their next 3 years ...
 
... bless them , the NZ public !

Sorry, having no effective opposition is foolish indeed. 
 

.... that's their fault for having stoopid policies , which the public don't want ....
 
Hardly National's problem !

No it's the stupid sheeples fault.
 

Because a million or so Kiwis disagree with you , they're " stupid sheeples " ???
 
... the democratic process has triumphed , and delivered a government , with no horse trading or baubles of office being dangled to anyone ....
 

You got it, Jacinda Adern out and Judith Collins in. Judith Collins in should suffice, if NZ is prepared to have people like her in government then I do not know what else to call them

Get a grip she couldn't lie straight in bed

Yes Judith Collins is hard working dedicated and always tells the truth. She was our best Justice Minister and always served the nz public with no thought for her own personal welfare. In due course once the media have been been educated re their mistakes she will again be able to serve the public to her high standards.

Shudder

Jacinda Adern might yet get back in due to specials, but if she doesn't that is more an expression of how much Labour values here as expressed through list placement. If some of the mid 80s Labour politicians who did get back in move on, she could also come back there.

The interesting thing is Labour MPs got back their seats, what collapsed is the party vote.
That should be telling us something about policy I think.  ie CGT is a dead duck, too many ppl with nest eggs in property, HC should have done something about that a long time ago and didnt.
 
regards
 

Yeah, thought about that one. A whole heaping helping of the Nats is made up of what so many who appear to support Key and co, call unelected MPs. I wonder what the FPPers will say about that, as Labour has mainly "elected" MPs now, Nats, not so much.

Something is going to have to be done to turn speculators away from the housing market. Houses are for people to live in, to make homes of, not for the few to profit from at the expense of those who need them. This is a basic human need and that it is subject to so much speculation is only just short of criminal in my view

And at risk of sounding boring - the only proposal I've yet seen that would do that is the Big Kahuna - but one has to take both sides (welfare and tax reform) of that proposal for it to have any chance.  I felt Labour's economic proposals only attempted to address the tax side as a means to pay for the projected increase in the welfare/housing/spending side.
 
Problem with the Labour approach to my mind is that we need a plan for both increasing tax and decreasing spend (not increasing tax and increasing spend as was Labour's plan).

" Houses are for people to live in, to make homes of,"

So they are an item which has a value.
That makes them worth trading in - perhaps you're right what we really need is a futures market in houses, because they clearly have projected usable value to people.

Food is for eating - we have futures markets for much of the common items of that.
Cars are for travelling - lots of speculators in that market
Shares are for splitting the capital cost of a company - the market there is cliche'

"basic human needs" are exactly what is speculated on - it's created by one person, and speculated on, the sold to the end user.  Since there is one speculator, then arbitrage and banking mean there can be many.  Instant consumption items (eg education, health advice) are some of the few things that aren't speculated on (although shares in the companies producing support are).   Sadly many people don't take up more of the education.

If you truly don't think a house should be speculated on, then answer me this : For whom have YOU personally created a greenfields house for?   (building labour is speculative)

When did you last sell a second car for more than you paid for it? 
Nope exisiting, let's clarify it then, housing should have rules around it that discourages speculation. It is a ridiculous ponzi scheme that has turned NZ from a stable home owning society in to one that has huge numbers of people who can now never hope to own.
That speculators are able to basically steal their future from them is, as I said, bordering on criminal in my view as renting in this country is extremely badly structured. I am going to stick with that and until such times as someone has the cajones to do something real about it, society will continue to deteriorate. These things are connected as far as I am concerned.
People, if they have a bit of dirt, which of course, fewer and fewer do, can offset food costs with a bit of gardening. You can choose not to touch all the over processed stuff and make your own. Housing is a very different ball of wax from almost anything else
 

I had a friend that used to do that. he'd buy a cheap car private for very little.  Run it for 6 months to a year (if he got another one to buy in that time).  Then sell it for more than he paid.

But raegun from what I understand second hand car dealers sell such cars for more than they pay, quite frequently - kinda required for the business model I think....

... the surest way to ruin the speculators' party in the property market would be to reform the RMA , and the screeds of local council redtape , which drastically hinder supply of new housing stock , and add unnecessary cost burdens onto new builds  ....
 
When supply matches demand , as a properly functioning free market would allow , there are no massive tax free capital gains ...

Agreed - but the reforms you suggest would upset the status quo so will not be allowed to happen.

worse than that, it might actually work

You are here to sort it all out for the 'stupid sheeple' raegun so don't worry.

What can you say about an infighting party, wanting to play dirty politics...

that goes to the polls promising to increase taxes (ie add CGT)

Jeez raegun, you wanted people to be the government who you now freely admit don't even have the ability to be an effective opposition. (I agree with you on the second bit.)

No surprise there.

But just look at the protest vote against the running parties, massive non-voter portion

But Raegun you don't vote to ensure a strong opposition, you vote for what you think is good for the country. The opposition has to convince NZers that they are creditable, and obviously they didn't achieve that. Yes I agree that a strong opposition would be a good thing and it's a shame that Labour's share of the left vote has dropped so much which makes it tough, but I expect that they will recover after a bit of a long over due clean out. National did it previously, and for NZ's sake, Labour will too.

Unfortunately we have a few pressing issues on our plates that not enough people seem to understand. 
Unaffordable housing, foreign ownership of land, the TPPA just to name a few. Pity is that after 3 years of a govt that doesn't have to work hard to get legislation no matter how bad through, there will be some very serious issues down the track.
I stick to my guns, this is sad

Fair enough raegun, we're all passionate about our views and causes, and I genuinely appreciate that's there will be some sadness on the left who equally all want the best for the country.

Yeah, all of it, not just the favoured few

Raegun - if they are the most pressing issues we have what a paradise we live in. No ebola, sectarian violence, people living on $2/day. You can always rent a house if you need one and those foreign owners can't take the land anywhere - perhaps they will like the place like our ancestors did and make a go of it. For Malthusians "issues" are always down the track aren't they... - scare them about the latest disaster porn tomorrow so they vote for me today tactics aren't working. Perhaps better policy is the way to go?

OMG I cannot believe there are still people spouting that old chestnut about not taking the land anywhere. They might just as well
And as for the TPPA take a look at Oceania Gold and El Salvador. Strikes me that could be as worrying as ebola
Oh and as for Malthus, I reckon he was probably right just a bit early on it. The deciding factor will be fresh water.

A bit early on it! He's been wrong for 200 years. World awash with food could be a good time to sell some land. I remember when those Japanese were buying up all the land how did that pan out again?

Water, profile, water. 
Oh and the world awash with food, so that will explain why Pacific Tuna stocks are on the point of collapse. 
It is actually not just food, though, that will see the collapse, it will be lack of hope and a space to live in, and I mean more than a shoe box a mile high in the air. Young men, in particular become dangerous without purpose and something challenging and worthwhile to do. 

most people vote for who they think will put a dollar in their pocket, "the country" is other peoples' problems
 

Not me, I vote with my grandkids in mind

Updated with results with 97% of the vote counted
cheers
Bernard

Proof of the stupidity of the NZ voting public. Jacinda Adern out (it would seem) Judith Collins in.
What else can be said?

You back losers!the majority voted for positive aspirational leadership.

Aspirational, you meaning breathing, Jeez one would certainly hope that would be the case for the bulk of the time.
 

Good night everyone. I'm off to bed for a long, long sleep.
cheers
Bernard

Thank you, Bernard. And David and Gareth and everyone else at interest.co.nz.
 
The most remarkable thing for me in this election is how well served for factual information we have been by both the new media and the political parties.
 
If the low point was 1984 when Labour issued its manifesto (a glossy book with some vague statements about policy) two months after winning the election then we have come a long way in the last 30 years.
 
For their part the parties - especially Green, Labour  and Act when I looked - had comprehensive and easy to use web sites with detailed policy statements. By and large the major parties also costed their policy proposals. You could argue whether they were realistic but we had a least some firm idea of where money was supposed to come from.
 
The new media have been stars. Interest.co.nz and all the other blog sites have been the place to go if you want something other than a photo-op, sound-bite or earnest discussion of how someone looks.
 
Even though it got lost in the noise the real political discourse was of the highest standard I can ever remember.

Kumbel
Many thanks. We've been pleasantly surprised by the amount of interest (pun intended) in our coverage, in particular the excellent policy comparison pages put together by Scott Palmer.
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/election-2014-policies
And all our election coverage.
http://www.interest.co.nz/category/tag/election-2014
cheers
Bernard
 

... then use your ear scratching pinky to give Mr Kumbel a " vote up " , Bernard ...
 
I just did ... but now the keyboard reeks of ear wax ..... whew !

Accelerated foreign ownership of housing and farmland.  TPPA will go through,  Investor state dispute resolutions will destroy whets left of our sovereignty.  The leveraged buy out of this entire country will continue as planned.  I'm sure Audrey Young will be getting a check in the mail.  how could voters have let this happen. 

Congratulations National supporters (of which I was one in 2008/2011, but not this time, for reasons of housing policy mainly).
To those predicting the end of this nation, things will go on largely as they have under either party, with slightly more emphasis on centre-right policies over centre-left.
Let's not kid our selves, the differences between these parties are not nearly as big as shrill extremists on both sides paint it to be, middle New Zealand is a pretty decent brake against changes on a massive scale.
Disappointed personally, but if this is not a wake up call for Labour & Greens to get their shit together, stop infighting, and get disciplined about their policies and messaging, I don't know what is.
Now let's forget this shit and get on with whatever it is we were doing before this sideshow, eh?
 

bugger.

The US wins NZ elections.

CGT sinks Labour.

Maoris are the big losers in this election.

Kim Dotcom off to the US soon ?

Everywhere else 1% wins. Only in Epsom less than 1% wins.

Too right and too bad.

The new leader of Labour..Winston Peters, do you think ?

In David Cunliffe's concession speech he said that while out meeting and greeting votwrs he sensed a mood for change.I think it was a change of Labour leadership that they wanted not change of Govt.

... there was a sharp contrast between David Cunliffe and John Key after the election was over ....
 
David Cunliffe , who had just taken his party to the worst drubbing in living history , was grinning like the Cheshire Cat ... full of bravado and jubilent ...
 
John Key , who has taken his party to the first ever total victory in MMP , was quiet and modest , very unassuming , and thankfull for his team...
 
48 % , the Gnats can govern alone , they need no other party... quite frankly , David Cunliffe is deeper in denial than the Egyptian olympic swimming squad ..

GBH before you get too excited about Labour's defeat lets remember that National in 2002 only received 21% of the vote. That is worse than Labour's 2014 vote of 24% so it is not the worst drubbing in the living history of Labour and National. Unless Gummies have a short lifespan of less than 12 years?
 
Also I believe that the number of voters is well down and National got less votes in 2014 compared to 2011. Could we get some statistics on voter turnout. -Bernard?
 
If this low voter turnout statistics are true then the defeat was about kiwis not voting rather than switching their vote.
 
Does this mean Hager ironically proved the Simon Lusk thesis that 'Dirty Politics' lowers voters turnout more for the left than the right?

To be fair Brendon, many of us on the right don't take great pleasure in the full extent of Labour's demise. Every country needs a strong opposition to question the incumbent Govt on debatable issues. Without one we're way worse off as a country, and we certainly don't want anything other than a centralist left wing party to fill that void. Personally I hope, and indeed do expect, Labout to recover, but frankly they were never a viable proposition for this election as the newly elected Labour candidates have been making abundantly clear this morning - Labour just weren't in a fit state for Govt.
 
The new young Labour winners, and those that will come into the administration, should acheive that over the next three years and we'll have a good fight on our hands then. And if the Govt isn't doing the job over the next three years, then they might be successful if they come in with a viable plan rather than just plain rhetoric that has been well seen through this election

Certainly the word on the street (or at least the people I talked to) 3-4 month out from the election was that Labour wasn't ready to govern. Labour have only themselves to blame for this. Wasting two electoral cycles on infighting and not focusing on a single simple message that they can take to the wider public. The weirdest electon campaign ever meant they couldn't use the election campaign to spread their message to the public.
 
I think the Cunliffe and Parker combination show promise. They need to simplify there message. Something like 'economic stability comes from changing the rules, institutions and culture of NZ away from investing in unproductive capital to productive ones. Labour has always been a progressive party and this is the direction they should go in my honest opinion. With a supporting focus on improving the integrity of our public services through investment where the market doesn't provide and constitutional reform to create independent referees to keep everyone honest.
 
I see Labour's problem is getting the wider party to get behind this message and creating a base or political machine that can match National's battle tested one.

I heard somewhere this morning that turnout in the Maori seats was only 45% of those registered on the Maori roll. If that was right - it's seriously dismal.

The enrollment stats are here:
http://www.elections.org.nz/research-statistics/enrolment-statistics-ele...
The electorate results are here:
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorateindex....
So people can check out the turnout in individual electorates.
I'll try and get some colour-maps generated for the country, but I honestly don't see myself as having time to do that until tomorrow evening.

DH do you have the total turnout figures, how many votes National and Labour got compared to last election? Channel One last night said it was way down, in the 60% range I think. On a another website a blogger said National got 94% of its 2011 vote (in actual numbers) while Labour only got 85%. 
 
If this is true then Rhonwyn Newson at the NZ Herald is correct theat Nicky Hager should have read 'Dirty Politics' Chapter one about Simon Lusk political strategy regarding negative campaigning.
 
" There are a few propositions about negative campaigning that are worth knowing about. It lowers turnout, favours right more than left as the right continue to turnout......"

I don't have the figures to hand, and am in transit at this moment, but those numbers seem about right- about the same total turnout (down a tiny bit) but pretty much all the loss suffered by Labour. The results compared to last time are from dividing these results by the 2011 ones in the archive of the electionresults website.

National said 'don't rock the boat' and Labour sure did not.
Election done and dusted.

And then there's our Ms Lilo Harry
Whose waka's do seem to miscarry
The OS Deutsch Daddy
Came through as quite Maddy
Where next? well, she won't wanna Tarry....

An opposition for National should come from the right.
They are hardly a centre right party, just a continuation from Helen Clarks government.
More of the same socialism and crony capitalism.
Labour should move to the right, away from welfare and towards workers.
 

And sitting in that very socio-economic space is Gareth Morgan's Big Kahuna. If only they were to adopt his policy approach - they could potentially solve some of their fundraising issues as well. 

And Hone's financial transaction tax, something else we need to have a long hard look at

Yes yet another tax just like the five new or increased taxes that the left campaigned on and took a bath on - yes lets make FTT the next CGT issue for 2017 and guarantee the Nats a 4th term.There's good reason why FTTs are talked about but implementation never occurs or keeps getting pushed back forever, its just another tax that will either stop some activity that generates it, and/or be passed back through to the consumer...it isn't rocket science, there is no magic bullett to pay for things without working for it. 

No it would not be yet another tax, it could negate any need for a CGT and even GST but it would be comprehensive and low in percentage terms, but it would cover everything. It would not be worth trying to dodge. I reckon it is worth crunching the numbers on.
Something has got to be done about the great divide and you are kidding yourself if you think it doesn't exist and you are kidding yourself even more if you think it is a good thing

Are you suggesting that if Labour adopt the Big Kahuna, Gareth Morgan will bankroll their campaign, Kate? ;-)

If I was their fundraiser, I'd certainly ask!!!!
 
Point is: it is a very unique and radical proposal. If it worked, he'd be a famous economist the world over. If I had a spare $3m and was an economist - and they offered to implement it in full - I'd fund them.
 
New Zealand citizens are generally all either too poor or carrying too much debt to fund political campaigns at a grass roots level - even when the requirements are a meagre as they are here. As Winston Peters said - you can't fly a microlight to the moon.
 

Does the Elections Commision make data available, the way Census data is made available, o that we can  query election statistics to see for example, how immigrants voted or how different age groups voted?

it doesn't collect that data. It does a general "so why didn't you vote/tell us about the voting process" survey but nothing with detailed demographics. that is all infered from matching with other electorate level information like the census and looking at trends at the aggregated electorate level.
political parties will be doing some private research in this and I suspect only National is really well funded enough to do a very good job. but none of the political parties will be making their research public.

Harre seriously deluded this morning on q&a, claiming it was the right that ran a dirty campaign. Over at Labour they seem to be confused with the difference between winning and losing, when DC walked into the New Lynn hq last night anyone not paying attention would have thought they had won. Disappointing result for the Greens, the wind very much taken from their sails by Nationals last minute river and marine reserve policies.

Well done New Zealand on getting out there to ensure those  Moron extremists on the left who had nothing to offer us but more taxes are in the wilderness for the next three years ( and hopefully for a lot longer )
Thankfully those economic incompetent fools are nowhere near the levers of power , as their lunactic screaming and yelling rabble rousing  behaviour did not endear themselves to anyone .

I really think the Herald newspaper, and other MSM have a lot to answer for.  It's wrong to demonise Kim Dotcom for Labours defeat.   For me personally, as a labour supporter, the Herald newspaper has been completely insufferable during this entire election campaign.  The political bias is so overt and constant that it's difficult to describe it here but here's just one example which sticks in my mind.
 
Nicki Hager's book is released.  boom!  Possibly the biggest corruption scandal in New Zealand's history is blown open.  Among other things, the minister of justice has been caught red handed attacking the head of the serious fraud office, yada yada yada.   What was in the Herald that week?  "John Key worried that Dirty Politics is a Distraction".  oh really! how sympathetic could the Herald be, okay but it gets worse.  The next article in the herald was a truly trivial piece describing politicians look when their faces are upside down.  The message to voters was clear, John Key looked trustworthy, but both Cunliffe and Kim Dotcom are not.
 
The political commentator for the Herald Audrey Young practically gets hysterical when any criticism is leveled at the National party but she's the first to attack Labour for the smallest perceived infraction.  John Key is always photographed looking powerful and confident whereas Cunliffe is usually photographed looking worried of uncomfortable.
 
If we're going to have any meaningful democracy in this country we need an unbiased media.  I think this should be a serious discussion for the nation to have.  Not whether Kim Dotcom affected  the outcome because this IS a distraction.       

.... the Hager saga and Kim Dotdum were only one of four things that scuppered any chance Labour had ...
 
Others were Labour's old style introduce new taxes and redistribute the goodies policies ...
 
.... the fact that the leader has less personality than a dead Norwegian Blue Parrot ... and the cringeworthy comment that he was sorry he was a man , that turned folks off him in droves , monstrous error that one ...
 
And the fact that the Gnats have a leader who people can relate to , he has the common touch ...

And the fact that the Gnats have a leader who people can relate to , he has the common touch ...
 
LOL - but remains resolutely ignored by ~1.0 miilion non-voters apparently seeking other social aspirations than those presented by the Nats to the common folk you so aptly segregate..

Bit of a long bow to assume the 1 million non voters dont like Key.Generally people only vote to change something .
If there are 1 million kiwis who dont want to engage in the political process and or are too lazy to brave a wet windy polling day then i am happy they dont vote..They are the ones likely to vote on a "whim" or a tv sound bite..

Generally people only vote to change something .
 
Is that so?

agree completely Gummy.
This election has retored my faith somewhat in the nz  public.
Many were able to see through the lies and spin from the left(as for assertions of a MSM bias against the left) from some quarters ...YOU MUST BE JOKING...!
JK was under enourmous pressure over the last 3 weeks of the campaign and came through with dignity and mana intact.He didnt lash out as those of a left persuasion are inclined to do.
He presented his case and let the public decide.The "dirty politics" was played by the left while Key stayed above it all.
Hone sold his soul to the devil and reaped the rewards,never have so many Nats wished a labour candidate(Davis) so well.
Cunliff is a "dead man walking",   ( I use the term "man" loosely as Cunliff is a poor excuse for a man...but at least he has the decency to apologise for it).  However due to the power of the unions may remain in the job for a few months yet.Anyone else would be gone by lunchtime.
 
 

Agree 100%, have a look at nakedcapitalism.com to see how complicit the Herald is in smearing, particularly the team of Cathy Odgers, David Farrar, Slater,  etc "we own the Herald and Nbr" also the info on money laundering is enlightening, and worrying. Most kiwis base their decisions on one news headlines and seven sharp, so they know nothing about the 'abuse of power' book except it was a left wing conspiracy, and Judtith Collins is a victim. Imagine if it were Labour who Hager had written this book about it would have been scrutinised in detail for days on all media outlets (just as the letter written by Cunliffe 20 yrs ago dominated all media for 2 days!!). The mileage they took from Cunliffes CGT uncertainty on one issue, compared to how much was mentioned about Keys very vague tax cuts, - the bias is so obvious.  Its wrong to say the election was hijacked by "distractions" as the media would never have given the left any time to promote themselves anyway.Nat will remain in power until something can be done about the media.

 Imagine if it were Labour who Hager had written this book about it 
 
Don't have to imagine. It happened in 2005 and yes the media wouldn't give up on Clark.

Stupid computer

hagers book was supposed to help the greens/labour,
unfortunately for Nickey the electorate saw through the crazy greens policies and they detest Cunliff  so the protest vote went to Winston Peters instead..
(Winnie did well out of hagers last book as well so maybe he is the email hacker/stealer?..just joking)

I agree , Hager did no favours for Labour . It was an uncoordinated  smear campaign that turned around a bit them on the arse .
Labour was all over it , seeing it like manna from heaven
And it  pushed voters to the right .

What is someone David Shearer doing in Labour anyway ?
He is far too sensible to be associating with those people . 
He comes accross as sincere and honest , responds to questions with an openness and an honesty thats very uncommon in politicians , who all too often say what they think you want to hear .
He has commonsense , he is reasonble and rational , he is not full of theatrics and David Cunliffe's  polished and rehearsed soundbites,  when he talks .
He is not agressive, and is someone ordiinary folk can relate to .
He is way different to  anyone else in oppostion like Winston Peters , the Green co-leaders , and the rest of the loony left .
Someone like this belongs in National , not in Labour

he also got rolled when labour were polling about  37%  ?
DOH!