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US consumer confidence falls sharply; oil and gold retreat; China factories expand; EU threatens Ireland over tax deals; iron ore price tanks; NZ$1 = US$0.779, TWI = 76.1

US consumer confidence falls sharply; oil and gold retreat; China factories expand; EU threatens Ireland over tax deals; iron ore price tanks; NZ$1 = US$0.779, TWI = 76.1

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news the American consumer may be having second thoughts.

Consumer confidence fell in the US in September for the first time in five months and home prices in July rose less than expected from a year earlier, underscoring the unsteady nature of growth in the world's largest economy.

The widely-watched Conference Board index fell to 86.0 in September from a upwardly revised 93.4 the month before. Economists had expected a reading of 92.5.

The S&P/Case Shiller index of property values increased 6.7% in July from the same month a year ago, the smallest 12-month gain since November 2012.

These reports were enough to spook the equity markets. And the oil price fell spectacularly, down to US$91/barrel, with the Brent price now under US$95/barrel. Gold also fell -sharply - and is now at just US$1,210/oz which is its lowest price in 2014. Below US$1,200/oz and many mines will close.

China's factories showed signs of steadying in September as orders climbed easing fears of a hard landing but pointing to a still-sluggish economy facing considerable risks. Still, the 'good' data is from rising new export orders - mainly to the US - rather than buoyant conditions at home.

The European Commission has told Ireland it believes it gave illegal state aid to Apple. It has published a letter, originally sent to the country in June, accusing it of helping the computer giant via special tax arrangements. It is also looking at whether some other countries unfairly favour multinationals - including Luxembourg for its deal with Fiat and the Netherlands for its famous "Dutch Sandwich" arrangements.

Staying in Europe, the euro fell to a two-year low against the US dollar as slowing inflation of 0.3% in the 18 nations that share the currency boosted the case for extra stimulus from the European Central Bank to avert deflation. In fact, to get things moving Mario Draghi wants to buy bundles of Greek and Cypriot bank loans with "junk" ratings, in a move that is set to exacerbate tensions between Germany and the bank.

And in Australia, iron ore has led a shocker month for Australia's key commodities, crashing to a fresh five year low.

And now may be a good time to note talk we are no longer hearing - that the US dollar is passed its use-by date as the international reserve currency. All that talk has evaporated. The US dollar is still king and extending its role and reach.

We start today with our currency marginally higher from where we left it when we went home last night. It is now just on 77.9 USc, at 89.2 AUc, and the TWI is up to 76.1.

If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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4 Comments

As long as we are on a interest rate hiking bias, the NZ dollar is unlikely to fall much, if anything it's likely to rebound looking forward to March 2015 when the RBNZ can stall our economy with more hikes. 

If NZ wants a lower dollar, then drop rates. 

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yes, we're seeing that on the market at the moment.
There were some big drops recently but there is pretty solid support pressure, and most of the dips quickly climb up again quite steeply (rather than move sideways)

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And now may be a good time to note talk we are no longer hearing - that the US dollar is passed its use-by date as the international reserve currency. All that talk has evaporated. The US dollar is still king and extending its role and reach.

 

Maybe, but the US banks that peddle it's value to us are totally dependent on a quarterly US Federal Reserve bailout racket to satisfy regulatory liquid collateral requirements.

 

...In other words, the Fed ripped off the mask that RRP was anything more than a way for the Fed to allow banks to appear more palatable to... drumroll... Fed regulators. Regulators such as Carmen Segarra, who once again made the news, not only for being fired for daring to ask probing questions about the Fed's "close" relationship with Goldman Sachs, but for providing 48 hours of recording confirming that the NY Fed is merely a branch of Goldman Sachs.

 

So fast forward to today at 8:30 am when the Fed announced the result of today's "special" window-dressing Reverse Repo operation. What was unveiled blew our socks right off, because not only was the Reverse Repo an absolutely whopping $407 billion, but the low rate on the auction was an unprecedented -0.20%! Read more

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So the U.S that has a National Debt of $17.8 trillion, unfunded liabilities in the case of Social Security, Medicare etc of about $65 trillion and running structural deficits of $500+ billion annually but with a total tax revenue of $3 trillion shoul have its currency lauded as the "international reserve currency".  What sort of bizarro financial world are we living in?  Keep drinking the kool-aid DC. 

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