Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the Greek Prime Minister has resigned.
Alexis Tsipras has quit, hoping to strengthen his hold on power by winning a snap election on September 20th. He says he hasn't been able to deliver on what he promised when he was elected in January, so will let the public have their say on who they want to lead them. His call deepens political uncertainty on the day Greece began receiving funds under its 86 billion-euro bailout program with foreign creditors.
Yet a snap election should allow Tsipras to capitalise on his popularity with Greek voters before the toughest parts of the program begin to bite, and may allow him to return to power in a stronger position without anti-bailout rebels to slow him down.
US house sales have risen in July to their highest level since the 2007 boom. The National Association of Realtors says home sales steadily increased for their third month in a row.
While demand for housing is being boosted by a strengthening labour market, supply remains tight. This has seen the median house price rise 5.6% over the year, to US$234,000. It's also seen first-home buyers side-lined, with their share of sales falling to a six-month low.
The International Monetary Fund has decided China's yuan won't be included in its basket of reserve currencies for at least a year. The IMF will make a call on whether it'll include the yuan in its basket of elite currencies later this year. However any move won't take effect until September next year - a nine month delay.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark is lower today at 2.10%.
The oil price remains deep in its slump at US$41/barrel, with Brent crude at US$47/barrel. An auction for drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday attracted the lowest interest from producers in nearly 30 years.
Bloomberg has also found commodity producers have lost almost as much value in the past year as India’s entire economy. Slumping prices have wiped out over US$2 trillion of mining and oil company shares since the middle of last year.
The gold price is up US$23 today to US$1,153/oz.
The New Zealand dollar hasn't budged much against the US overnight, sitting at 66.3 US¢. It's inched up a half a cent to 90.3 AU¢, and is down to 59.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 remains at 70.7.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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26 Comments
Phew!
''July was the hottest month on Earth since records began, averaging 16.6 C (61.9 F), according to US scientists.''
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34009289
El Nino builds and builds....as global warming worsens the Californian drought:
https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/warming-climate-deepening-cal…
Wow. 16.6 C, now that is really hot ;) Especially when you realise that most of the recording stations are in the northern hemisphere, and July is in the heart of their summer. (The BBC might think that is hot, but if NZ had a summer averaging 16.6 C there might be a few grumbles, even from the Brit imports.)
16.6 C is the same average for Auckland in April and November, over the past 30 years.
Global Temperature. The Entire planet. To put it in perspective this is 2.6 degrees above the 1960-1990 average of around 14 degrees (so in 25 years). When the Global Temperature was 5 degrees below that 1960 to 1990 average, North America was covered in Glaciers. The degree of local change you get with a small destabilisation of global temperature is dramatic and expensive.
The fears are manyfold
A lot of scientists are basically giving up the fight to educate/change people.
Most scientists are watering down the figures because they don't want to appear alarmist.
No one is wanting to talk about "Abrupt Climate Change" as it makes all the models irrelevant; and the fact is that "Abrupt Climate Change" has happened before and will happen again.
:/
David, I don't think the 16.6 C is the average daily maximum, it's the average temperature over 24 hours across all latitudes - probably not too dissimilar from NZ in our mid-summer actually.
The main point is that, yes they acknowledge that July is usually the hottest month across the globe, but this is the hottest July air temperature across land and ocean surfaces since records began, even compared to previous El Ninos. Accompanied by the warmest ocean surface water temperatures across the world.
And 2015 has had the warmest overall January-July records for both air and ocean water temperatures globally. Don't you think that something might be going on?
YoungTel and dh - admirable that you have taken the time to explain the obvious, but I rather think your efforts are wasted. No doubt when the equivalent mean global temperature for July has hit 18C at some point in the future DC will be here to tell us 'that's only the average temperature for Auckland in March'.....
As editor of a financial and economic site, I expect better from you David in understanding statistics. Have a look at this image. If temperatures were stable then there would be as much blue as red http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201507…
I am neither a denier, nor a sceptic of the core science. But I do take a sceptical attitude to some of the loud shouting that goes on. And I am a total sceptic of the politicisation of the issue.
All I did was push back at strident over-egging, which undermines proper understanding of climate change.
You will find we (I) seek out climate change stories from clear thinkers on the matter (Motu, Generation Zero, as examples). We run such stories in our Rural and Insurance sections which focus on the economic aspects of climate change. These are real, I am certain. Apart from some occasional Top 10 contributors, we hardly every run 'denier' material.
But proper understanding of the [real] risks are never helped by relentless chicken-littles, no matter how couched. Turning people off by boorish behaviour isn't useful..
By the way, the NIWA data I linked to are 'monthly means' and not daily maximums as some have suggested here. Seems to me that is a proper local comparative to the NOAA data (which I am familiar with).
Here is 4,50,000,000,000 years of Earth's temperature. It is not the hottest "ever" now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record
What a great link ! The final chart is an eye-opener for sure. The 2050 and 2100 estimates are made conservatively and are probably too low and will come sooner. Especially if (when) TPP is signed and the transnational corporates lock in climate change with their lawsuits and short term financial goals. That high altitude, wind and storm sheltered cave in the sub-Antarctic Islands looks like a good fallback position for our offspring (David will like this...not) and only partially tongue in cheek.
This comment is irresponsible. You clearly don't understand what you are talking about when it comes to world average temperatures. Now I would expect this sort of stupid comment by your average climate denier on this site. You however as the editor of this site need to held to a higher level.
While you often have opinions on economic matters that I disagree with at least your reasoning is generally sound and formed from a position of informed thought. This comment above is not thought out and makes me wonder if you are prepared to write such nonsense about an area you clearly have a poor grasp of the science what other topics you comment from a place of ignorance.
Hopefully you just forgot to log in as Profile and this is a one off.
HOW COME THERE IS NOT A SINGLE LINE MENTIONing
fall in US stock market !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/us-stocks-open-lower-as-oil-slide-growth…
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34003197 One would not hold ones breath waiting fer substantive interest rate rises in US. Maybe one meaningless gesture, to save face, then free money rules?
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