A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Spencer warns, China carnage, oil drops, Glenbrook worry, swaps flatter, spreads widen, NZD adjusts

You sure it is not just the regular morning/afternoon session break? They do have a set break each trading day (I believe the Japanese market does the same).

Once all stocks limit down they effectively are in a trading halt anyway

Global cooling!

I am not surprised, JPY is the safe haven, private Japanese are still rich (+75% GDP NIIP), even thought public finances look dire (about 240%), Japanese government Bond holders are a loyal bunch.

NZD is privately risky (-70% GDP NIIP),

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

Whenever sentiment goes bad JPY strengthens, NZD falls

If you dont do any planning and taking of action that saves you a huge amount of $s and if the worst happens you scream at your your MPs who call a drought due to exceptional circumstances and you get the Govn to bail you out? Really I wonder why more are not allowed to go to the wall.

New Zealand is not as affected by El Nino as some other countries. It is a regular occurrence every 3-7 years. It's effects last about one year.

http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/information-and-resources/cli…

Every time it happens, its always preceded by the claim that 'this time its the worst'.

Wow things are getting nasty in the US alright. It's hot out there I tell you. I hope someone thinks of the children.

"The July contiguous U.S. average temperature was 73.9°F, 0.2°F above the 20th century average and ranked near the middle in the 121-year period of record."

And don't fret Whiner those forests are doing ok.

"Plants are growing more quickly than people can cut them down, with fields and forests on the advance across the planet."

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201507
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/forests-and-fields-…

dp

I'm a doomster and I've said none of those. My forecasting record stands up pretty well I would say.

I am on public record declaring that Dr. Bollards interest rate hike and the National Party's promise to lower income taxes were both mistakes because a financial crisis was imminent both would have adverse impacts on people's incomes and the government's balance sheet, respectively. (Kiwiblog, 2007)

I predicted that the financial crisis would lead to a crash in commodity prices, which did take place in 2008. This was when many people at the time were suggesting that oil production had peaked and the oil price would reach $150 a barrel.

btw. MMT is about government financing. It says precious little about the wider economy. It also overlooks the importance of balance of payments, perhaps because of its American bias. Perhaps to American MMT'ers the balance of payments have little material importance when your currency is the world's reserve currency, but little 'ol New Zealand does not have that particular luxury.

And kiwis are pretty naïve if they don't think trouble in Aus spells some trouble for NZ

at the moment its a correction if it carries on for another week then you need to worry as it will turn to crash.
if that happens it could lead to crashes in other areas.
my view is it is a correction that is needed and will flatten out and become a bear market.

Getting back to levels seen a year ago, is not carnage, it's an MSM beat up.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=ER2
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=YMhttp://finviz.com/future…

Carnage will be when PE ratios return to some kind of normality, when companies get trashed for stock buy backs, when the B/S stops and HFTraders pack up and get out of Dodge.