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IMF tells Fed not to 'rush'; US jobs growth slows, wage hikes quicken; G20 pledge no currency wars; sovereign deadbeats; UST 10yr yield 2.13%; NZ$1 = 62.8 US¢, TWI-5 = 67.7

IMF tells Fed not to 'rush'; US jobs growth slows, wage hikes quicken; G20 pledge no currency wars; sovereign deadbeats; UST 10yr yield 2.13%; NZ$1 = 62.8 US¢, TWI-5 = 67.7

Here's my summary of the key events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news from a key G20 meeting in Turkey.

But first, as we get closer to the Fed's key September rate decision, both policy and market voices are rising to counsel against an increase that would hurt their special interests.

On the policy front, the head of the IMF has come out saying the Fed should not 'rush' to lift rates. They fear other markets may not be ready for a rise.

On the market front, US job growth may have slowed in August but the unemployment rate dropped to a 7+ year low and wage growth grew faster at +2.2%, and this seems enough to keep alive the prospect of a September rate rise.

At a G20 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank bosses, all countries pledged to "refrain from competitive devaluations and will resist all forms of protectionism", including China whose economic slowdown and wild-west share markets could drag on weakening global growth. But it is probably fair to say no-one really believes the Chinese G20 commitment.

By the way, the reason economic news out of China seems to have gone quiet is because the country was on holiday at the end of last week. And it is a holiday weekend in the US as well.

New official Canadian research shows Sovereign borrowers are falling behind on record sums of debt. The study paints a bleak picture of global sovereign solvency, suggesting that arrears, default and debt restructuring are an even more frequent feature of public finance than previously thought.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark fell on Friday on the under-achieving jobs data and is now at 2.13%. Closed international markets will likely see our wholesale rates move very little in the first few days of this week. But the northern hemisphere holiday season is ending and full activity is about to resume.

The US benchmark oil price slipped slightly, now at US$46/barrel and the Brent benchmark is at US$49/barrel.

The gold price also slipped to US$1,121/oz.

The New Zealand dollar starts the week lower against the greenback at 62.8 US¢ which is a new six year low, at 90.9 AU¢, and 56.3 euro cents, a four year low. The TWI-5 is now at 67.7.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes on Friday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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7 Comments

Interest rate hike ... anywhere?
I think the Fed will just have to be grateful the system is not collapsing (yet).
NZ OCR cut this week with floating moving to 5.85.
Other banks preparing to meet the BNZ fixed rate of 4.35 shortly.

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Finally, Bernanke patiently explained that to the extent ZIRP punishes savers it’s nonsensical to mention it in any discussion about income inequality because after all, poor people don’t have savings. Read more

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Less well off people have their savings in bank accounts. High income earners have large mortgages. So the net effect of artificially low interest rates is a wealth transfer from the poor savers to the high income earners. Seems obvious to me. What I don't see is why the idiots in charge think this is a good thing.

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Which group do you think the idiots fall in to?
There lies your answer.

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and with the OCR cut our dollar should fall again, great for exporters and tourism not so good for imported goods

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Interesting commentary on the US$ carry trade and deleveraging in emerging markets:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/03/stop-blaming-china-the-problem-is-bigger…

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BIS Working Papers No 510 Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis. A worthwhile read

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