Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news some market anxiety has lifted today.
Locally, the dairy auction results were not as negative as many had feared. Overall, prices were down just -1.4% and WMP prices were virtually unchanged. There is a fair amount of relief in these results, especially as the NZ dollar has fallen more than enough to counter these tiny declines.
Globally, the fear that gripped markets at the end of last week eased today and most markets are a lot calmer, supported by attitudes of investors on Wall Street after their long weekend.
However, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts for the third time in less than a year overnight, at the same time as Q4 GDP data from Beijing showed that the 2015 Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate since 1990.
The Chinese data showed industrial output grew just +5.9% with crude steel production actually shrinking -2.3% year-on-year, while retail consumer spending grew +11.1%. Their pivot to the service sector is in full swing.
Most of the Chinese data was reassuring because there was a sense beforehand things could have been a lot worse in the December quarter. However, the usual sceptics were also out in force. You might say there is 'something for everyone' in this Chinese data release.
The IMF's data has world growth rising from +3.1% in 2015 to +3.4% in 2016 and a tick higher the following year. The forecast reduction is all about a trim for the US for which it now sees +2.6% growth. China it sees growing +6.3% in 2016, India +7.5%, both unchanged assessments. Neither Australia nor New Zealand figure in these latest forecasts.
That slower US growth will clash with the recent new-found bipartisan agreements on the US Federal budget. Spending and deficits are on the rise, forecast to go from -2.5% of US GDP to -2.9%.
The Chinese are preparing for their week-long New Year festival early this year. The central bank is promising a US$100 bln liquidity boost over the period - in what may be cover for some backdoor stimulus.
In New York, the benchmark UST 10yr yield is essentially unchanged today at 2.05%.
The oil price is holding at US$29/barrel on both benchmarks today. Warmer weather patterns and rising supply will keep the crude oil market oversupplied until at least late 2016, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report overnight.
The gold price has slipped slightly, and is now at US$1,088/oz today.
The Kiwi dollar has found its feet and risen albeit not by a lot, but it is higher against most pairs this morning. It starts at 64.9 US¢ today, at 93.7 AU¢, and at 59.5 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 70.6.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».