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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more rate changes, confidence high, pouring more, yields down, job ads down, producer prices down, swaps unchanged, NZD up

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more rate changes, confidence high, pouring more, yields down, job ads down, producer prices down, swaps unchanged, NZD up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac changed its key 2yr 'special' mortgage rate today, but it was not to respond to HSBC. Westpac raised its rate +10 bps to 4.49%, middle of the pack.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ICBC changed most of its term deposit rates today, rejigging them both up and down. UDC cut all its offer rates across the board, except its 1 year rate which is up to 3.75%. Their 3 month rate was also ticked higher..

WE ARE A POSITIVE LOT (WELL, MOST OF US)
New Zealanders aren't buying the bearish messages from the rest of the world. Consumer confidence is largely unchanged in February holding onto buoyant levels. That suggests spending trends that will be equally positive. ANZ said this stable sentiment "is tremendously encouraging given darkening global clouds. It’s another sign of economic resilience."

VERY STRONG SET
The data was released today for the volume of ready-mixed concrete poured in the December 2015 quarter and it was strong all round. It was especially strong for Auckland where an all-time high was reported. In previous years Q4 is not a quarter where we see a rise from Q3, but this year it was a dramatic jump. There was also a strong rise for Wellington. For Christchurch it was a more normal pull-back, but it is still at an historically high level. Nationally, more than 1 million m3 were poured, the highest quarterly level ever. In 2015 that totals almost 3.9 mln m3, also a handsome all-time record.

STRONG DEMAND, LOW YIELD
The first NZ Government bond tender for 2016 for 2020s saw the coverage ratio rise again on strong demand. The average weighted accepted yield dropped to 2.56%, down from 2.87% in November and its lowest in six months.

DOWN, BUT ...
Today's job ad data recorded a fall in January, but it was less than the headline number. That is because the big fall was in newspaper ads; the slippage in online job ads was minor and in the realm of 'noise'.

DOWN, BUT IN A GOOD WAY
Producer prices are falling in New Zealand. December data out today shows that prices received by producers and prices paid by producers both fell Q-on-Q and year-on-year. But there is a silver lining - costs are falling faster than prices received. One group is seeing input prices falling even faster; farmers. Cost control seems to be being managed well.

MORE JOBLESS
But enough of this good news. We need some negative stuff, and it came from Australia today where their unemployment rate ticked up in January to 6.0% (NZ is 5.3%). The Aussie result was worse than expected, although you need to recall that the reliability of the Australian labour force surveys has been challenged in the past.

SIGNS OF INFLATION
China's inflation is ticking higher. In January it was expected to be +1.9% pa and up from +1.6% in December. It actually came in at +1.8%.

WHOLESALE RATES HOLD
Last night on Wall Street, benchmark yields rose sharply. But that shift has not flowed through to local markets today with only variable tweaks being posted. NZ swap rates are -1 to +1 bp changed today except for the 10 yr which is up +3 bps. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.60%.

NZ DOLLAR RISES
The Kiwi dollar gain 1 full cent today, rising back to the middle of the recent range. It is now at 66.4 USc, 92.8 AUc and the TWI-5 is now at 71.1. Check our real-time charts here.

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4 Comments

'We need some negative stuff, and it came from Australia today where their unemployment rate ticked up in January to 6.0% (NZ is 5.3%). The Aussie result was worse than expected, although you need to recall that the reliability of the Australian labour force surveys has been challenged in the past.'

According to a Zero Hedge item, Australia has admitted to cooking the books:

Specifically it was Treasury Secretary John Fraser, who admitted during testimony to parliamentary committee that jobs growth for the two months in question "may be overstated." What's the reason? The same one the propaganda bureau always uses when its lies are exposed: "technical issues",

There were some “technical issues” in October and November that may have made the employment figures “look a little bit better than otherwise would be the case,” he said. The technical issues relate to “rolling off” of participants in the labor survey.

Australia’s economy added 55,000 jobs in October and a further 74,900 in November, before shedding 1,000 in December to produce the record quarterly gain. Questions regarding the accuracy of the data have been raised following acknowledgment by the statistics agency in 2014 of measurement challenges.

In conclusion we asked "why the sudden admission it was all a lie? Simple: weakness in commodity prices "is far greater than people had been expecting,” Fraser said in earlier remarks to the panel. Australia is now "swimming against the tide" because of uncertainties in the global economy, he added."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-17/australia-stops-cooking-its-jo…

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there are very few S&P rated china entities.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201789876…

Prime Range was taken over 15 months ago by a Chinese-backed company, Lianhua Trading Group, which itself could be troubled.
Its shares had been put into receivership and it had changed directors several times since the deal.
The Meat Workers Union said the firm had run out of money because its investors had been caught up in turmoil on the Chinese stock exchange.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/296772/shock-in-invercargill-as-…

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The NZD refuses to lie down because of the RBNZ Governor's body language. Every time he opens his mouth the NZD soars because every currency speculator is reading between the lines. The immediate
take is that the Governor won't reduce the OCR.
Evolutionary biology studies show that speech only conveys 30% of the message; the other 70% comes from body language and indirect inference.

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I'm not sure why he doesn't at least try and talk down the dollar even if he does have no intention of lowering the OCR. Something along the lines of 'we are going to pause briefly to see the effect of the OCR cuts, but we believe there will be some significant cuts to come' would be better than 'this is the last cut unless the world ends'

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