Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news some big economies are showing good signs of growth.
Firstly, in the US consumer spending recorded its biggest increase in more than six years in April as households stepped up purchases of cars. The metric the US Fed watches closely, PCE (personal consumption expenditure) rose +1.6% year-on-year. None of this will dissuade the Fed from its clearly signaled desire to raise benchmark interest rates 'soon'. Their next scheduled review is in two weeks on June 16.
They will also have noted the drop in consumer confidence however. This latest reading comes after another respected survey showed it improving. So all even on this score at present.
Consumer spending is also rising at a brisk pace in India, pushing economic growth to +7.6% in the past year. This base in consumer spending actually makes India's economic progress look more sustainable than China's.
IATA has released data for global airfreight traffic in April and that shows a year-on-year growth of +3.2%. Growth was particularly strong in North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Passenger traffic grew even faster, up +4.6%.
Later today, we will get the Aussie Q1 GDP data. The expectation is that it will come it better than expected (+2.8% 'real') because their current account deficit improved, driven by a surprisingly strong improvement in 'net exports'. (Our Q1 GDP result is not due until June 16.)
In staying in Australia, their election campaign is proving the old adage "there is nothing more permanent than a temporary tax'. The poll-leading Labor Party has confirmed that it will make their 3% 'deficit levy', which took the top personal income rate to 49%, permanent.
In New York the benchmark UST 10yr yield is basically unchanged at 1.84%.
The oil price is also basically unchanged today with both the US benchmark and the Brent benchmark just over US$49/barrel.
The gold price is slightly higher at US$1,218/oz.
And finally, the NZ dollar will start today just fractionally higher at 67.6 US¢, at 93.5 AU¢, and at 60.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is now at 71.8. And you should also note that overnight the Chinese authorities have allowed their currency to slip to its weakest against the benchmark US dollar in more than five years.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
24 Comments
OZ banks sound? maybe....
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/satyajit-das-says-th…
gee what a surprise, NOT , try replacing could with is
The Treasury warned that record levels of immigration COULD push New Zealanders out of low-skilled jobs, depress wages and increase housing pressures
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=116…
Apparently this report has somehow been kept quiet for months - no surprises there.
"Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse said measures were in place to ensure Kiwis were "front of the queue" for jobs, but locals simply didn't want some."
This is complete nonsense - what queue? This is how it works in the real world Michael. Restaurant wants staff but imposes absurd job requirements such as fluency in a foreign language (is that even legal) so the chances of them being an actual Kiwi are slim to non existent - cue the relative from wherever showing up and getting the job AND NZ residency. In our area the backpackers lodges and camp grounds have, together with seasonal workers from Vanuatu, almost completely taken over the supply of orchard and packhouse staff. These jobs are not even advertised locally. Similar things are occurring in the hospitality, aged care and petrol stations.
Where are the high and rising wages in these sectors that would indicate a real labour shortage?
News to me
$750 billion in US treasuries and other assets to be sold if the US doesnt cooperate
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behi…
Economic growth implies growth in the generation of pollution, particularly the waste products of combustion of coal and oil, since all economic activity in an industrial society is dependent on burning either coal or oil (or both).
Although government representatives at COP21 supposedly committed to reducing CO2 emissions to prevent rapid planetary overheating, in practice politicians, economists and economic commentators still promote and celebrate INCREASED generation of CO2 emissions, so rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 is exactly what we are witnessing:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_growth
The disconnect between policies geared to promoting increased emissions and a supposed commitment to reducing them is beyond comprehension.
And the meltdown of the planet continues to accelerate, unabated, as must be the case when such mutually exclusive policies are pursued:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
The first rule of holes: when you are in one that is far too deep, stop digging.
On the matter of how much NZ property will literally be under [sea] water in the not-too-distant future as a consequence of unabated CO2 emissions:
'The last time CO² levels were at 400ppm, about 3 million years ago, earth temperatures were 2-3 degrees Celsius higher and sea levels were about 20 metres higher, Renwick told an AntarcticaNZ conference on the weekend.
"Unless we do something drastic soon, we're in for a big redrawing of coastal boundaries," Renwick said.'
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/80291984/climate-change-nz-to-pass-impo…
So, are you saying that hundreds of people didn't die in India recently because temperatures were at record highs, that Syria is not a mess because of prolonged drought, that Britain hasn't experienced the worst flooding ever, that NZ has not experienced 2 degrees warmer than normal, that ice is not melting, that coral reefs are not bleached and dying, that Canada hasn't experienced unprecedented fires, that Siberia isn't on fire right now and that Lake Mead water level isn't the lowest it's ever been?
Are you saying that all the reports (including video footage of cars and houses being washed down streets, dead corals, and empty water courses) is made up via digital technology? And that all meteorologists and scientists made up numbers as they go along just to promote a global conspiracy?
In the early 1700s reliable thermometers were invented and people started recording their observations, including the repeated freezing of the River Thames and the ice fairs held on its surface. .
With global temperatures at an all-time high
'April was the seventh month in a row that broke global temperature records, Nasa figures show.
Last month smashed the previous record for April by the largest margin ever, the data show.
That makes it three months in a row that the monthly record was broken by the largest margin ever.'
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36303046
and the cause of rising temperature rising, which do you think more likely, the Thames freezing over or much of London disappearing under water?
Those extremes were minor compared to what's on the horizon (note how relatively stable it's been for the past 10,000 years, the time of agriculture). There's a difference between weather and climate that doesn't seem to be getting through. The global average hasn't been 3 degrees C above the baseline since 3 million years ago, well before the appearance of homo erectus:
http://gergs.net/2015/06/updating-the-geological-temperature-plot/all_p…
Having known for over 15 years that this was coming, I bought several years ago, about 50 metres above current high tide. The entire system will collapse and I will die long before my present location gets inundated.
Of course, the game that has to be played by politicians right now is to keep the populace believing they have everything under control.....when in practice they have nothing under control and are making the predicament worse by the day (second).
Why is it the politicians role to keep everything under control? Surely their role is to ensure that the constitutional rights of the people are protected .........when and who gave the politicians the right to interfere in all and sundry???
People who use political process for implementing personal agenda's is what makes a system collapse and will be the reason the system collapses in any future point in time!!
All we can do is get on our knees and pray for a new Ice Age! Think of all the extra land when the water is locked up in glaciers. We won't have to pay to cross the Cook Straight- just drive accross on dry land. The UK will be under a kilometer thick sheet of ice, but that is a small price to pay to beat global warming.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.