Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news American households are in a much better financial position.
Overnight the IMF reviewed the state of the American economy. It said their economy was "overall in good shape", with growth set to accelerate from recent setbacks despite an overvalued dollar. But they also noted that too many Americans were living in poverty.
Part of the reason for the IMF's positive view may be that now 79.3% of Americans now have a good credit score. This is the highest level since 2010 when the level was only 74.5%. Before the sub-prime crisis in 2006 it was 76.7%. On average, monthly debt-service payments accounted for 10.1% of households’ disposable personal income, down from a peak of 13.2% at the end of 2007 and the lowest since the US Fed started tracking this data in 1980. This improvement is very significant across the whole country and involves millions of households repairing their financial situation, and significantly. In conjunction with good rises in real wages, the risks to the American banking system have certainly eased.
Also, US "existing-home sales" raced ahead in May to their highest pace in almost a decade, while the uptick in demand this spring amidst lagging supply levels pushed the median sales price to an all-time high of US$239,700 (NZ$335,000).
Locally, Bloomberg is running a story about how much RBNZ Graeme Wheeler has cut back on public speeches, pointing out just how much less engagement and communication he is doing in 2016 than he did in 2014. The pullback seems very pronounced.
Overnight, consultancy Mercer released its 2016 cost-of-living index for 209 international cities. Hong Kong is the most expensive followed by Luanda in Angola and Zurich in Switzerland. Sydney is ranked #42 while Auckland is equal with Canberra at #98. Wellington was ranked #123. This helps put our housing cost debate into some international perspective.
In Europe, the English vote on Brexit is too close to call according to polls just ahead of the start in voting. Campaigning has hit "peak fear". It's an old-fashioned poll where voters need to show up at a polling station. Exit poll indications might be known by this time tomorrow. Voting there is from 7am to 10pm local time, Thursday. So that means voting there ends at 9am NZ time on Friday. The first actual vote data will. come some time after that. Maybe the best way to monitor the likely result is to view our live currency rate charts.
In New York today, the benchmark UST 10yr yield has extended its rises and this morning is up a further +1 bp to 1.70%.
However, the oil price is slipping again. The US benchmark is now just over US$49/barrel and the Brent benchmark is now under US$50/barrel.
Gold is down as well and is currently at US$1,265/oz.
And finally, the NZ dollar starts today a little firmer yet again at 71.6 US¢, at 95.6 AU¢, and at 63.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is at 74.6.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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