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US consumer spending and sentiment rise; new home sales up, used home sales down; Wall Street races higher; NZ offers UK trade negotiation skills; UST 10yr yield at 1.47%; oil up, gold up; NZ$1 = 71.1 US¢, TWI-5 = 74.7

US consumer spending and sentiment rise; new home sales up, used home sales down; Wall Street races higher; NZ offers UK trade negotiation skills; UST 10yr yield at 1.47%; oil up, gold up; NZ$1 = 71.1 US¢, TWI-5 = 74.7

Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news New Zealand has a new services export opportunity.

But first, for a second straight month, American consumer spending rose in May on increased demand for cars and other goods. This data comes of course before the Brexit turmoil so the impact of that on US consumer intentions is yet to be revealed, if any. The latest consumer sentiment survey seemed to suggest the Brexit impact in North America will be minimal. But then again, combined with the uncertainty of the US presidential campaign, some see a wider impact yet to be reflected in the sentiment data.

One thing is clear however, American house buyers are focusing their purchases on a new-build home, rather than existing homes. Sales for the latter actually fell in May.

Wall Street is strongly higher today, up more than +1.5% in mid afternoon trading. This follows very strong gains in the three main European equity markets.

In London, a British newspaper is reporting that New Zealand has offered the UK the use of its trade negotiators. Given our recent success at negotiating a range of large trade deals, it looks like we may have a new world-scale service export. Apparently the UK has very few staff skilled in the area, having devolved all that expertise to Brussels.

In Beijing, an official of the International Energy Agency told China that their air pollution is killing more than 1 million people per year and that is expected to rise to 1.4 million in 2040 even with their planned "improvements". In addition he told then that it is reducing life expectancy by more than two years on average. Things are little better in India, the IEA claims

In New York, the benchmark UST 10yr yield has held overnight and is still at 1.47% in late trading. Credit risk premiums are making quite a noticeable recovery today in late trading. In fact, they are now lower than they were two weeks ago, and back to March levels in the US and Europe. The Australasian credit spreads are actually moving back towards their lowest levels of the year.

The US benchmark oil price is up again today by almost US$2, now just under US$50/barrel and the Brent benchmark is just over US$50/barrel.

The gold price is also higher, up US$9 to US$1,323/oz.

And completing the trifecta, the NZ dollar has risen overnight by as much as 1c and is now at 71.1 US¢, at 95.7 AU¢, and at 64 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is at 74.7.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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7 Comments

The difference in economy between income and spending is debt. As noted earlier, it was clear that the asset bubbles, based on debt via eurudollar expansion, created a boost in overall “demand” as represented in GDP’s Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers. On the other side, income, particularly disposable income, we find that like the labor statistics the weakness or potential dislocation point was much earlier than the Great Recession (or Great Dislocation).
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2016/06/29/the-income-of-full-employmen…

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'Scientists are warning New Zealand's record-breaking temperatures are causing a surge in the numbers of agricultural pests and, ongoing drought, with predictions the problem is set to get worse.

Findings by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) show the first half of 2016 is shaping up to be the warmest since records began in 1909.

NIWA's findings show every month of the year to June was at least half a degree more than the average from 1981 to 2010.

Its impact is being felt widely: many skifields are yet to open and Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy announced yesterday more support for drought-afflicted farmers in Northern Canterbury........'

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/feeling-the-heat-of-record-break…

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#/media/File:F…

"Reconstruction of the past 5 million years of climate history, based on oxygen isotope fractionation in deep sea sediment cores"

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The fourth one is the most illuminating I've ever come across

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AEP @ Torygraph is in reassuring form, noting that Mr Market has fairly much ridden through Brexit unchanged on the UK side, ridden over the EU side with hob-nailed Size 12's. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/was-brexit-fear-a-giant-…

But indeed, the world has changed: calm markets, spotless Sun (so more clouds if Svensmark is on the right track http://principia-scientific.org/strong-evidence-that-svensmark-s-solar-…), and even some evidence from RBNZ that Auckland housing bubble is coming to be regarded as - er - a Bubble, with contagion effects.

It's a Wunnerful World. As both Louis Armstrong https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5TwT69i1lU and OfTwoMinds (Charles Hugh Smith) remind us. http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.co.nz/2016/06/brexit-step-in-right-dir…

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Don't you love that phrase: "the pathologies fester"?

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Given that despite being told we we could tax foreign property investors by John Key, it turns out that we cannot under the terms of a number of trade agreements; it would appear that our negotiators are very poor.
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/82366/ey-points-out-double-tax-agree…
Australian trade agreements enable them to not only tax foreign investors, but also restrict their purchases to new properties. So I would be asking for help from the Australians and certainly not the New Zealanders who seem far worse than the Wallys in Brussels.

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