Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more backward steps in China.
But first, there is something of a presumptive relief rally going on on Wall Street markets today - anticipating a clear Clinton election win. Equities are racing higher, up +2% in mid afternoon trading. Bond yields are also sharply higher. And gold is down -US$23/oz.
Markets would usually be on hold at this time if they thought a result would be close, but clearly they don't. Lets hope they are right.
If Clinton wins, a new way to redress income inequality might come from an attack on "monopsony" - where a renewed focus goes on bolstering competition in many markets. It is certainly an economic policy trend to watch out for. If applied in New Zealand, firms selling building materials, supermarkets, and telecoms would be in the firing line. Big unions might struggle with the concept too.
In Europe, the consequences of Brexit are starting to bite for London. Global banks are quietly building up their investment banking teams in Frankfurt as the German deals-market hots up on the back of some large Chinese transactions, and marking an important shift in financial muscle.
In China, they published their foreign currency reserves data today and while it was lower again, the fall was no-where near as sharp as some were speculating. The outflow was a relatively modest -US$46 bln, leaving them with a hoard of US$3.12 tln. Mind you, that is an outflow of US$320 bln over the past 12 months. They also raised their gold stake to 2,030 tonnes, a +15% gain since the start of 2016.
And economic reform seems to be on the back-burner in China. Today, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, widely seen as a voice for reform, was abruptly removed in the latest sign that President Xi is filling key roles with more trusted allies. China is also showing less tolerance for views it doesn't like in Hong Kong. Instability there could see even more migrants here.
Today, Moody's ratings agency said that climate change vulnerability will become "an increasingly dominant" factor is sovereign ratings. At this time, however, they say "Western Europe, North America and Australia as well as the huge landmasses of Russia and China were least vulnerable".
In New York, the UST 10yr yield will start today much higher at 1.83%. Here as well, wholesale swap rates will start higher after another strong gain yesterday.
The US benchmark oil price is holding, and is now just on US$44.50 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is above US$45.50 a barrel.
The gold price is down sharply and now just under US$1,281/oz.
The New Zealand dollar will start today pretty much where we were this time yesterday, at 73.2 US¢ and staying with a resurgent US dollar. On the cross rates it is now up at 95.1 AU¢, and against the euro at 66.3 euro cents. The NZ TWI-5 index is at 77.1.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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