Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that expert opinions about the growth rate of the world economy are in the spotlight today.
Firstly however, it is a public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Day) so market activity will be lighter than normal.
The IMF has updated its 2017 global growth forecast and confirmed that it sees improving conditions in most regions.
It has lifted the growth expectation for the US on the basis that significant deficit spending will happen under the Trump presidency. It also raised its growth forecast for China. But both countries will achieve that with significant increases in their debt levels. Interestingly, US Fed officials no longer see the need for added fiscal stimulus, worried that such a program will make larger problems down the road.
The most noticeable feature of their growth forecasts however are not for these two; it is that they don't see any improvement on the +1.6% growth for the Euo Area, or the +1.1% for Russia. Almost all other world regions far exceed that. (They did not make specific forecasts for either Australia or New Zealand in this Update.) They did note that 2017 will be more volatile.
In China, data out overnight shows that electricity use grew +5.0% in 2016, significantly below the country's official growth rate. Electricity consumption is often used as a proxy for a more realistic assessment of the growth rate in China.
Also in Australia, it is becoming clear that the debt of the Federal government will exceed AU$500 bln by the middle of this year. They used to have a debt ceiling law but that was abandoned in 2013 by the Abbott government with the support of the Greens. At that time, the limit was AU$300 bln.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield is unchanged because of the holiday, still at 2.40%.
Oil prices aren't affected by that but they are unchanged anyway, now still at US$52.50 for the US benchmark, while the Brent benchmark is now just on US$55.50 a barrel.
The gold price is up US$7 and is now at US$1,202/oz.
The New Zealand dollar is little changed as well, now at 71 US¢. On the cross rates it is at 95 AU¢, and against the euro at 67 euro cents. The NZ TWI-5 index is at 77.
If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».