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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; no rate changes, more job ads, dairy prices down, credit card use up, ASB 5yr bond scores, HSBC in trouble again, jail for bribes

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; no rate changes, more job ads, dairy prices down, credit card use up, ASB 5yr bond scores, HSBC in trouble again, jail for bribes

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No rate changes to report today.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.

JOB ADS GROWTH
MBIE's Jobs Online index was updated today. The seasonally adjusted All Vacancies Index increased by +0.5% in January 2017. Growth was concentrated in the construction and engineering (up +1.2%), education and training (up +0.6%) industries. This was offset to some extent offset by falls in information technology and accounting, human resources, legal and administration. But it is manual labouring jobs that had the largest rises although there were gains for all skill levels. Vacancies increased in nine out of ten regions. Vacancies grew most strongly in Nelson/Tasman/Marlborough/West Coast (up +1.7%), and Manawatu-Wanganui/Taranaki (up +1.5%). The only fall was in Canterbury (down -1.0%).

PRICES DOWN, BUT PAYOUT ABOUT TO BE RAISED?
Today's dairy auction has seen the WMP price drop -3.7% as Fonterra makes more available for sale. However economists still see it likely that there will be an increase in forecast milk price from Fonterra very soon.

CARD HAPPY
Billings on our credit cards used in New Zealand were flat in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, but they were +13.1% higher than for the same month a year ago. Cards used by Kiwis overseas saw a +18.5% rise from January 2016. And billings on cards by tourists in New Zealand were up +22.1% on the same basis. Belying this surging activity, we are not letting the balances get away on us; balances on our credit cards are only up +3.2% year-on-year.

HOT OFFER
ASB's bond offer for $100 mln "plus unlimited over-subscriptions" has been well supported. The February 2022 issue has attracted NZ$285 mln. The margin has been set at +1.20% pa and the interest rate has been set at 4.20% pa which is slightly more than the 4.10% ASB offers term deposit savers for five years.

MONEY LAUNDERING BREACHES 'QUITE NORMAL'
The UK's Financial Conduct Authority is investigating HSBC over potential breaches of money laundering rules after concerns raised last year by the anti-crime monitor inserted into the bank after earlier shocking revelations. The bank did not disclose the specific concerns raised by the monitor, who was appointed five years ago. He is reported to have raised concerns about clients with links to terrorism, including ISIS. The bank boss says it is “quite normal” to uncover such instances in a bank the size of HSBC which operates in 70 countries and has 240,000 staff.

ACCEPTED A GIFT RECENTLY ?
Today, two men were found guilty of corruption and bribery in a Serious Fraud Office trial and have been sentenced in the Auckland High Court. Stephen James Borlase has received a sentence of five years and six months’ imprisonment and Murray John Noone, a sentence of five years imprisonment. The pair are guilty of corruption and bribery offences relating to more than $1 mln of bribes which took place between 2005 and 2013 at Rodney District Council and Auckland Transport. One was a receiver and the other the giver of gratuities that came in the form of travel, accommodation and entertainment. People in the insurance and financial industries need to be very careful when offered "gratuities in the form of travel, accommodation and entertainment".

WHOLESALE RATES STABLE
Hardly any change again today, with just a few terms oscillating around +1 and -1 bp. But today's 90 day bank bill rate is down yet another -1 bp and now at 2.01%.

NZ DOLLAR UP MARGINALLY
The NZD is slightly higher today, now at 71.7 USc. On the cross rates we are slightly lower at 93.3 AUc, and a bit stronger at 68 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is now at 77.2. Check our real-time charts here.

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8 Comments

In Australia, the household sector is coping reasonably well with the high levels of debt. But there are some signs that debt levels are affecting household spending. In aggregate, households are carrying more debt than they have before and, at the same time, they are experiencing slower growth in their nominal incomes than they have for some decades. For many, this is a sobering combination. Read more

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I was just searching for some articles on household debt. One from the ABR had a comment about a calculation that the average Australian mortgage servicing cost was 66% of net income and the article was written in 2015. No wonder GDP growth went negative. Australians have been borrowing to breaking point.

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Say it ain't so.

With profits soaring, Japanese companies’ record-breaking cash pile rises ever higher. That’s bad news for the economy, which is relying on exports to sustain a modest recovery as consumers struggle with stagnant wages.

Japan’s biggest economic problem is too much income flowing to companies and their piles of unproductive cash are the main obstacle to revitalizing consumer demand, according to Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics.

Few analysts expect robust pay increases when Japan’s biggest companies and unions sit down for spring wage negotiations. In fact, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation says it will ask for about a 2 percent increase in monthly base wages, the same amount it sought last year, when it received a 0.44 percent gain. Read more

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Well we know what the elephant in the room is when it comes to stagnant wages and ever growing cash piles in Japanese companies don't we?

Hmmm, just how do we increase consumer spending......

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Toshiba spend some cash... Oooops

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The one thing this demonstrates with ZIRP/NIRP is that helicopter money paid directly to individuals will be more effective than 0% bonds.

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Why not? There's always tomorrow...right?

Australia looks to be on the verge of its third record bond offering within six months. The level of demand Mead cited would exceed the A$15.3 billion of bids that Australia received last month when it sold an unprecedented A$9.3 billion of December 2021 securities. Read more

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The "hot offer" from ASB is exactly the same as what the (NZ post guaranteed) 5 yr Kiwibank term deposit is paying. Why would you bother. Unless you think you might want to sell it before maturity for a profit.

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