Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ has hit the market today with a 4.49% 2 year 'special', -16 bps lower than its main rivals but not the lowest 2 year rate in this market.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today, yet.
A BUMP IN THE ROAD
February used car imports fell -1.7% from the same month a year ago. That change is significantly lower than the +6% we have come to expect from this category and it is probably due to the turning away of some car carriers who had a serious stinkbug infestation onboard. The 12,048 cars that were sold is the lowest monthly level since June 2016.
DAIRY PRICE WATCH
We have a dairy auction tomorrow. The derivatives market suggests WMP prices will be -3.6% lower.
UPDATE ON PUBLIC HOUSING SUPPORT
The size of public housing was revealed today at 66,367 units, with 45.6% of them (30,249) in Auckland. 95.6% of all public housing is for people with income-related rent subsidies. These cost taxpayers $17.3 mln per week ($900 mln per year). In addition, 291,634 people are receiving the Accommodation Supplement costing $20.9 mln per week and paid to private landlords ($1.087 bln per year). Another 69,751 people receive Temporary Additional Support, also paid to private landlords and costing $4.5 mln per week ($234 mln per year). The number of people on the Social Housing Register is now 7,725. Details here and here. There are 1,842,500 private dwellings in New Zealand as at December 2017, 37% of which were not occupied by the owners. So those receiving either the Accommodation Supplement or Temporary Additional Support represent 53% of all rented accommodation.
WHERE THE GROWTH IS PLANNED
The Government has targets to grow public housing. The totals as at December 2017 are 66,367 and by 2020 that is planned to grow to 72,000, and increase of 5,633 units in two years. In Auckland, the current numbers are 30,249 and this is planned to grow to 33,803 by 2020, a gain of +3,554 houses. The Auckland growth represents 63% of the national targets. Details here and here.
COMPLETE THE CENSUS NOW
Today is Census Day. You need to complete the forms now. So far, 1.2 mln people have used the online option, but given there are 4.8 mln New Zealanders needing to be surveyed, that is still an awful lot of form filling to be done today.
UNDER 3%
Australia's 2017 current account deficit narrowed from -AU$51.5 bln in 2016 to -AU$42.4 bln. This was essentially driven by changing a goods deficit in 2016 of -AU$7.9 bln to a surplus of +AU$14.0 bln while their small services deficit shrank even further. (Fourth quarter data rose slightly.) As a % of GDP, their current account deficit is just -2.4%. For comparison, the New Zealand level is -2.7% of GDP.
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 'SEVERE DOWNTURN'
Ratings agency Fitch says the major Australian banks' ability to withstand a severe downturn in their housing market and household sector, should it occur, has been strengthened by regulatory intervention to tighten underwriting standards and bolster capital buffers.
BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates have risen today in a steeper manner again. The two year is up +1 bp, the five year is up +3 bps, and the ten year is up +4 bps. The UST 10yr is up to 2.89% today (+5 bps). The Aussie Govt 10 yr is also up +4 bps at 2.77%. The China 10 yr is going the other way, down -4 bps to 3.86% while the NZ Govt 10 yr is up another +3 bps today to 3.03%. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.90%.
BITCOIN OFF
The bitcoin price is now at US$11,255 or -1.5% lower than this time on yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged today after a bit of a sag overnight and a recovery today. It is now at 72.3 USc. We are at 93.1 AUc and have slipped also against the euro at 58.6 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 still at 73.4.
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5 Comments
Italy's political earthquake will shake the old European hegemony to its foundations
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/05/italy-sweeps-aside-70-years…
Italy Going Boom
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/03/05/italy-going-boom/
Comment on the Telegraph article to me sums up the problem.
Patrick Taylor 6 Mar 2018 10:37AM
Dear AEP,
Another interesting article though I think the headline ought to read
"Italy's political earthquake SHOULD shake the old European hegemony to its foundations "
It SHOULD, but sadly it won't.
Rather than take the obvious message that this is a repudiation of the EU’s current direction they will, in private, throw up their hands in disgust at these foolish Italians whose small minded-parochialism, xenophobia and lack of faith in the judgement of their betters, has led them to vote the wrong way. In public they will simply pretend it hasn’t happened.
It is the same every time a vote in a member state has gone against the broader wishes of the Brussels elite. They ignore the clear message that such a vote sends – namely that the EU needs root and branch reform before it can hope to regain trust among member states.
Elections in France – which saw the National Front capture a 1/3 of the vote – were hailed as a victory for Europe because Macron won. The best thing most French people could say about Macron was that he was not Le Pen, which isn’t setting the bar very high. Frau Merkel scraped back into some sort of power, yet again Brussels ignores the clear message that support for AfD should make plain to them.
Some fellow posters on these pages look to the result and suggest that there are other countries ready to quit the EU - Personally, I very much doubt they would in the short term. Any waverers on that front have seen how the EU plans to treat the UK - a long-standing, heavily contributing member who has exercised their democratic right to go. That I'm sure has been a salutary example for many EU Eurosceptics - as was the precise intention.
But I do think that if an honest referendum were held on the future direction of travel then we would see a widespread rejection of it.
Say the EU laid out a 5 year, 10 year timetable of what it wanted. Which according to every noise emanating from within the EU apparatus would mean ever closer union etc then there would be wholesale opposition to that idea. Don't get me wrong - I'm sure there would also be plenty of backing for such a vision amongst Federalist supporters - but country by country, how many would vote to become a state within a USofE? Ireland? France? Spain? Italy? Germany? Denmark? Not a chance.
As that is, to my view, the inexorable direction of travel it seems absolutely essential that a EU Future blueprint, or some such, is made public and a free and fair vote on that plan is enacted.
Of course the EU won't do that - for the same reason they have never done that. It has been their modus operandi all along, the slow accrual of more powers running concurrently with the creeping erosion of national sovereignty and the nation state as an entity.
It has never, in my opinion, been an honest, open or democratic process. I for one, despite any pain surrounding our departure, rejoice that we rejected it as our future.
... Italy is not " going boom " ... it's going BUNGA BUNGA , baby .... oooooh yeah ... bringing back Silvio & the sex parties ....
And who can blame long suffering Eurozone voters for giving the middle finger to their new leaders and oppressors ... the Germans & the French ...
Govt and primary industries unite on funding https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-and-industry-unite-mycop…
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