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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Westpac changes some TD rates, B&T has tame report, job ads weaker, commodity prices stronger, swaps steeper

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Westpac changes some TD rates, B&T has tame report, job ads weaker, commodity prices stronger, swaps steeper

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac has changed some term deposit rates. Their six month rate is now 3.30%, a drop of -15 bps, their eight month rate is now 3.40%, a drop of -5 bps, and their nine month rate is now 3.50%, a rise of +15 bps.

RISING BUYER CHOICE
Barfoot & Thompson's sales
are running ahead of last year although cooling as we head into winter. But their unsold inventory levels remain high giving buyers plenty of choice. For the period January through April, volumes are 3,053 compared with 2,959 in the equivalent period in 2017, a rise of +3.2%. April average prices are up +1.4% compared with a year earlier, and median prices are down -2.4%. They had 4,678 listings on their books at the end of April, and almost 16% of those they had at the end of March dropped out.

WEAKER JOB ADS
ANZ reports their monitoring of job ads fell -2.1% month-on-month in April and annual growth slowed to +3.9% year-on-year, suggesting weaker employment growth ahead. Given the tight labour market, some employers may be giving up on advertising, they wonder. However, with both surveyed business confidence and hiring intentions down, weaker labour demand is likely the main driver.

HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES
ANZ also tracks commodity prices and their Commodity Price Index rose for its fourth consecutive lift. Of the 17 commodities tracked seven rose, five were unchanged and four declined. The main thrust was provided by dairy, while aluminium provided a supporting act as trade tensions and geopolitics boosted prices. The meat and fibre group provided a drag as beef and skin prices fell. The NZD moved higher against major trading partners except the USD and GBP. This helped boost NZD returns, lifting annual growth to +5.8%.

YIELD STABLE
The $100 mln NZGB inflation-linked bond tender attracted $229 mln in bids and on average the winners got a 2.15% yield (plus CPI inflation) pa. That is similar to the yield achieved on the same bond in November 2017.

A STRONG POSITIVE TURNAROUND
Australia has posted a high March trade balance, one that covers both goods and services. Analysts were expecting a lower surplus thanin February, but in the end a larger one was achieved. The surplus in the year to March was +AU$7.4 bln, and far, far better than the +AU$0.8 surplus in the 12 months to March 2017. And remember is was a whopping -AU$40.7 bln deficit in the year to March 2016. The turnaround has been very strong.

BIG INQUIRY, MEANINGLESS RESULT
In 2016, the Australian Government engaged their competition authority (the ACCC) to investigate the milk trade from farm to consumer, on the assumption farmers were getting screwed (by $1/L milk). The final ACCC report won't help farmers much and the recommendations its makes are all but meaningless. A 'code of conduct' agreement is the main recommendation.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES RISE
Local swap rates got steeper today. The two year is unchanged, the five year is up +1 bp, and the ten year is up by +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is at 2.98%, up +1 bp. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.81% (up +3 bps). The China 10 yr is unchanged at 3.67%. The NZ Govt 10 yr is up +2 bps at 2.85%. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.03%.

BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is now at US$9,250 which is up +2% from this time on yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The NZD is still flirting with the 70 USc level today and is now it is back at 70.1 USc where it was at this time yesterday. It was just below 70 USc after the US Fed reported this morning. We are marginally lower on the cross rates where we at 93.2 AUc after the strong Aussie trade balance, and up at 58.5 euro cents. That all has the TWI-5 unchanged at 72.6.

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Source: CoinDesk

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5 Comments

An attitude and behavior like a breath of fresh air.

I have never, ever borrowed a penny. So I have zero credit record. No loans, no mortgage, nothing. Ever. When I had no money, I rented. I have an allergy to borrowing and a scorn for people who are in debt, and I don’t hide it. I follow the Romans’ attitude that debtors are not free people.

https://www.esquire.com/lifestyle/money/a19181300/nassim-nicholas-taleb…

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NNT always has something interesting to say.

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Fuel for thought...Nothing illegal, nuffin has changed. 18 years.....in the making...

About time .....Make new energy laws.....fix things...not prices....not a law unto themselves ....or are they....??

Use a bit of Energy Minister.....fuel the flames,....incite "Competition' .....or are we :"Labouring" under an illusion yet again...

.Fair play is all we ask.....who needs taxes on top of a leveraged price....to service greed...to get from A to B.......

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=166639

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/356586/energy-minister-still-no…

Energy minister 'still not convinced' by BP execs....neither am I......are you?...is the big question.....Motorists.?.

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Thanbks JC, a lot of free wisom in Taleb's words.

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Fuel prices will go up and up and those responsible won't be popular. I wonder whether there is a connection between the timing of the proposed fuel taxes and the timing of the Energy minister's recent work.

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