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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; no rate changes, Westpac's profit rises, Fitch downgrades ASB outlook, steal $240K & get home detention, swaps slip, NZD up

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; no rate changes, Westpac's profit rises, Fitch downgrades ASB outlook, steal $240K & get home detention, swaps slip, NZD up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

DATE SET
The REINZ says that its April results will be released on Friday, about 9am.

EXPANDING NIMS
Westpac has released its results in New Zealand for the quarter to March (their half year). That shows an increase in cash earnings as income rose and expenses fell. Their overall net interest margin (NIM) rose +19 basis points from 1.96% to 2.15%. Banks generally have been winning higher NIMs, and the overall industry NIM is up to 2.11%. Current NIMs are historically low. Since 1991, the average has been 2.44%.

PEOPLE SMUGGLERS MARKET NZ
The Australian immigration minister is doubling down on the risk to his country from New Zealand. He says people smugglers are marketing New Zealand as a destination, and that New Zealand is the only country where you get an automatic visa entry into Australia. He is signaling a clamp-down.

DOWNGRADED OUTLOOK
Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded the credit rating outlook for both CBA and its subsidiary ASB, although leaving the rating itself unchanged at AA-. The outlook is now 'negative' from 'stable, "to reflect CBA’s risks in remediating shortcomings in operational risk controls and governance. "

HOME DETENTION FOR TAX EVASION
An anonymous tip-off has led to a Hamilton tradesman being sentenced to nine months’ home detention for not paying nearly $240,000 in tax. Uelese Young Yen was sentenced on 29 charges relating to two building services companies, Myra Quality Services and Julz Property Services, in Hamilton District Court today. He had failed to pay nearly $239,811 in income tax and GST over a six-year period.

TURNING SOUTH
House prices in Sydney and Melbourne are tipped to fall by as much as -4% this year. This is a major reversal of a previously rosy forecast - that Australia's two priciest cities would see their prices surge by +4 to +8%.

EQUITIES START POSITIVELY
After ending last week down, both the ASX and the NZX are up today, both by about +½%. But Tokyo is down about -½%, while Shanghai and Shenzhen are up by more than +1%. Hong Kong is up by +½%.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES SLIP
Local swap rates are down -1 bp across the whole curve. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 2.96%. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.76% (down -2 bps). The China 10 yr is at 3.66%, also down -2 bps. The NZ Govt 10 yr is down -1 bp at 2.80%. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.03%.

BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$9,230 which is down-3.4% from this morning.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The NZD is higher that when it opened this morning at 70.4 USc. We are also higher on the cross rates where we at 93.4 AUc, and up at 58.9 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 now at 72.8.

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5 Comments

Indeed. Offering to take more Oz refugees is an open invitation and in the end, an own goal.

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Inland Revenue spokesperson Tony Morris said Young Yen had largely operated outside the tax system, filing only three GST returns and no income tax returns from 2009 to 2014.

“Mr Young Yen told our investigators he had a limited understanding of his tax obligations."

Oh, well, you could almost understand that, almost, if you squint and hold your tongue right...

Mr Morris said Young Yen had even applied to receive Working for Families tax credits in 2015, making claims dating back to 2010. When asked to verify his income for those years, he filed income tax returns that under-reported his income by around $275,000.

Oh, for fork's sake. "Limited understanding" huh.

And for that, we sentence you to 9 months' semi-retirement at home enjoying your spoils, an a fine of quarter of the tax you evaded.

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The news about Sydney and Melbourne house prices tipped to fall 4% is a bit deceptive. The prediction is -4 to 0 per cent for Sydney and Melbourne -3 to 1 per cent. So -4% is actually a worst case scenario. Reading the article the news is fairly positive with no "crash" in sight.

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If Sydney and Melbourne were tipped to rise +4% would you then argue its equally as deceptive? Nope
Zachary, it is what it is. Topped out, unaffordable markets on both sides of the tasman are marking time in a highly vulnerable state.

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New Zealand was the only country in the world where you can have a visa into Australia on arrival.

It would be a shame to lose that privilege. If we accept too many illegal immigrants the consequences will be suffering the same fate of the countries these people come from. Here is the reality of the situation. We will lose the privileges we once had. It's not hard to imagine Australia revoking visa free travel for all New Zealanders if our border control becomes lax. We will effectively be classed the same as Sri Lanka and other countries by Australia.

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