A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; SBS Bank cuts a mortgage rate, inflation drilldown, an annual Palmy, services expanding, CBA CFO quits, swap rates down, NZD soft

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has reduced its two year fixed rate to 4.55%.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here.

DRILL-DOWN INFLATION DATA
Inflation affects different groups in the community differently. Overall, the CPI was up +1.1% in the year to March 2018. But updated component analysis released today by Stats NZ shows that for beneficiaries, their inflation was +1.9%, and for Māori generally, they faced inflation at the rate of +2.0%. Generally, those in the lowest income quintile faced +1.7% inflation while those in the highest income quintile faced +1.6%. Those in the lowest expenditure group faced +1.8% inflation, while those in the highest spending group faced +1.4% pa. Those in the middle tended to face the higher rates of inflation, but none of them were experiencing rates over +1.8% pa.

AN ANNUAL PALMY
Updated population estimates to March 2018 were also released today on a national basis, pegging our population then at 4,857,900. That is up +96,000 in a year, or up a tad over +2%. (The population of Palmerston North is about 85,000.) Our estimate is that we will reach a total population of 5 mln in about July of next year sometime.

SOLID SERVICES EXPANSION
Confidence in our services sector has reverted to its 'normal' level of a PSI of 56, the average since July 2017. But new order levels remain high and inventories remain relatively low, so the expansion going on in services is not unnatural. Retailing is being fingered as the lagging sector here.

ROBO-KIWI
Kiwi Wealth has become the first financial services provider in the country to be approved by the Financial Markets Authority to deliver personalised digital financial advice, also known as robo-advice. Under a process switched on by the Financial Markets Authority earlier this year, providers can apply for an exemption from the current law requiring all ‘personalised financial advice’ to be delivered by humans. Now Kiwi Wealth (a division of Kiwibank) can give its members 'advice' based on computer algorithms. I wonder if those algorithms will always recommend Kiwi Wealth products? Community-wide there are more than 2.8 million people enrolled in KiwiSaver and only around 1,800 authorised financial advisers available, so automated systems may be the only way to seek and get financial advice in the future.

4% PLUS
Christchurch International Airport's upcoming bond offer seeking up to $100 mln will have a minimum yield of 4%, or an indicative margin range above the 6 year swap rate for the bonds of between 1.25% to 1.35% pa. Today's 6 year swap is about 2.77%, so if it was issued today (it's actually to be issued on May 18, 2018), that would mean a yield range of 4.02% to 4.12%.

'NO FUN ANYMORE'?
CBA’s chief financial officer has quit and is off to work for a Hong Kong blockchain firm after less than a year in the role.

NZD CURRENCY SWAPS HIGHER
Traders interest in the Kiwi currency is showing signs of life again. Volumes in the currency swap market has been falling since 2009. However, there are some small volume increases in March and again in April that suggest renewed interest. To be fair, in historical perspective the jump is not overly large, but it does interrupt the long downward track. Still, there have been two false re-starts previously so this may just be another.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES DOWN AGAIN
Local swap rates fell again to start the week. They are all down about -2 bps. Ahead of Wall Street opening, the UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp to 2.96%. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.78% (down -1 bp). The China 10 yr is at 3.70%, also down -1 bp. And the NZ Govt 10 yr is down -1 bp at 2.74%. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bp at 2.03%.

BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is at US$8,656 which is down -2.9% from this time Friday.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
The NZD is at the same level it was at this time Friday at 69.7 US. We are a little lower against the Aussie at 92.2 AUc, and unchanged at 58.3 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 at 72.1.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.