Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that Italy is joining some emerging markets adding risks in the international economy.
But firstly in New York, stocks are up strongly with the Dow up more than +1% in Monday trading. The pullback from the tariff war between the US and China is the catalyst.
Japan's April trade balance improved, coming in as a surplus and 40% higher than analysts were expecting. Export growth jumped, but not quite by as much as expected, but import growth, while much better than for March, grew much less than expected.
In Italy, a little-known academic has been nominated as Prime Minister, "a friend" of one of the populist parties (The Five Star Movement) that gained support at the last election. Investors are unimpressed, marking down Italy's bonds sharply. That is because the new Italian coalition has policies that contravene the EU rules on fiscal prudence. That in turn is sparking calls for the ECB to step in to calm the situation.
Italy is just one economy breeding trouble for the international financial system. Argentina, who are in talks with the IMF for a bailout, is another. As is Indonesia which is struggling to defend its currency. Any missteps in Malaysia after the transfer of power there might bring them into question as well.
In China, reports are emerging that Beijing is worried about rapid changes in its demographic profile bringing an ageing population much faster than they want. Apparently they are about to announce the end of family size restrictions..
Locally, housing confidence in New Zealand is 'improving' with a sharp jump in the number of people surveyed by ASB saying house prices will rise.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.06% and unchanged overnight. The Chinese 10yr is at 3.72% (unchanged) while the New Zealand equivalent is at 2.85% (down -4 bps).
Gold is unchanged at US$1,291/oz in New York.
Oil prices are higher today and are now just over US$72/bbl in the US and the Brent benchmark is now just over US$79/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will start today slightly firmer at 69.3 USc. On the cross rates we are down at 91.5 AUc (the Aussie is one beneficiary of the receding US:China trade spat) and we are up at 58.9 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 72.2.
Bitcoin is now at US$8,341 and that is -2% lower than this time yesterday.
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The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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