What happened Monday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; no rate changes, factories not as busy, new KiwiSaver guesses, four year high just before new tax, swaps unchanged, bitcoin dumped, NZD firm

11th Jun 18, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

FACTORIES NOT AS BUSY
One of the later components for Q1-2018 GDP slipped into place today, manufacturing sales. For the March quarter that came in +7.0% higher than the same quarter a year ago. That is pretty good until you realise the prior three quarters had growth gains of +9.4%, +8.6% and +10.2%. March 2018 is a slowdown from those rates, and driven by some sectors that are fading anyway. An exception might be the seafood industry, which was surprisingly weak. Another exception might be the oil/gas/coal sector which contributed +9.9% growth from a sector that is 8.8% of all manufacturing. Overall, manufacturing has come in better than some had feared, but weaker than at any time in the past year.

AUSSIES ON HOLIDAY
Our cousins across the ditch are taking their Queens Birthday holiday today.

OFFICIALLY REQUIRED TO GUESS THE FUTURE
Active minister Kris Faafoi is pushing ahead with moves to make KiwiSaver statements more meaningful. He is requiring schemes to have member statements show an estimate of the savings they will have built-up by age 65 and the weekly retirement income that sum would provide over 25 years. That will involve making some very big assumptions about a very long time scale. Presumably he will insulate the schemes from liability if those don't turn out as indicated. (This is the sort of information professional financial advisers shy away from supplying, unless they have a deep understanding of their client, and a meaningful discussion about the assumptions. Otherwise 'misrepresentation' accusations can flow easily.)

TAX, & OIL COMPANIES GET THE BLAME
In Australia, they are saying their petrol prices are now at a four year high. Our's are quite that high, yet. But we are sure to go higher if the Government enacts its 11.5c extra "regional" fuel tax "for ten years". There is nothing more permanent than a "temporary tax".

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES FIRM
Local swap rates are virtually unchanged today. The UST 10yr yield has been rising in our time zone and ahead of the Wall Street open, and is up by +2 bps to 2.96%. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.77%, down -4 bps. The China 10 yr is down -1 bp at 3.68%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr is up +2 bps at 3.04%. (Readers who follow this section closely will recall that last week we were reporting this 10yr yield at 2.87%. That is still true for the NZGB 2027. But over the weekend, the standard for the NZGB shifted to the 2029, which is why we have a change. It would be better if the benchmark had been interpolated, but in NZ's case, it isn't. Bottom line; the NZGB 10 yr really hasn't moved that much. H/T JK.) The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.00%.

BITCOIN DUMPED
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,792, down -11.5% from this time on Friday. This one is a real move, caused by a major hack at a South Korean exchange. That loss means bitcoin is down -52% since the start of the year.

NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The NZD is marginally higher this afternoon, now at 70.4 USc. We are also firmer against the Aussie at 92.6 AUc and at 59.7 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 at 73.1.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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15 Comments

by Zachary Smith | 11th Jun 18, 4:38pm 1528691889

Hasn't Bitcoin gone up a little since the report at 9am?

by Uninterested | 11th Jun 18, 4:40pm 1528692001

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BTC=

by JimboJones | 11th Jun 18, 7:52pm 1528703528

Just a few months ago everyone was talking about bitcoin and crypto. Now I hardly hear anything. Good time to buy or is it an old fad that’s dead?

by Uninterested | 11th Jun 18, 4:38pm 1528691932

To publish Kiwisaver anticipated total and annuity figures is a very silly idea. Most people change jobs every 3 through to 5 years and go through periods of not working. So the incoming salaries can change wildly.
As mentioned there will have to be some very bold guesses about what the markets will do right through to the end of when the 25 yr post 65 timeframe comes about. If another financial meltdown occurs anywhere within that whole (age 65 + 25 yr) period the anticipated payout becomes meaningless.
And to force the Kiwisaver funds to publish the results in terms of a 25 yr payout is extremely ominous! It may be that he has plans to make that compulsory!

by dtcarter | 11th Jun 18, 11:12pm 1528715558

All my UK pensions provided those sorts of estimates, pretty sure they were required by law. The had figures based on high/mediium/low investment returns

by JB | 11th Jun 18, 5:24pm 1528694688

Not all Aussies are on holiday today David - Queensland the exception !

by solardb | 11th Jun 18, 6:08pm 1528697323

On the contrary ,Such a long period should average out , so a combo of the last 25 years average , perhaps combined with the last 10 year average should be reasonably accurate in the long range. Not like anyone is going to question it in 25 years time.

by Bobster | 11th Jun 18, 6:44pm 1528699473

Exquisite timing. What is wrong with this idiot. He’s like someone who had a blow on the head and never quite recovered. He’s our very own Donald Trump.

http://nzh.tw/12068606

by Retired-Poppy | 11th Jun 18, 7:11pm 1528701108

I know, my jaw dropped as I was reading it!

by Bobster | 11th Jun 18, 10:35pm 1528713307

This is a real problem for Jacinda. Here’s my theory of Jacinda.

I like Jacinda. I want her to succeed. She’s got talent, no doubt. And she’s smart. But she’s not in control. Shes in office but not in power. She’s doesn’t understand where her power base is, or might be. She’s holding the reins on a coalition of greens, labour and nzf. The Greens have nowhere to go but left. They are are (through their own stupidity and inflexibility) a given. NZF are basically the muldoonist (“hang em high”) rump of the national party. Small but noisy. And important. The biggest stick she has is her own personal brand, her own personal mandate. To build that mandate she needs to peel voters from the centre towards her. She needs to peel away from national the green blues, the urban liberals. If Jacinda does not have a personal mandate she had no power. If she has no mandate she has no power to push back on the greens and peters. FFS, she’s the prime minister. She should have control. She should be the leader. Right now, she doesn’t look like a leader. She looks like a chairperson (chairwoman!?). A facilitator. A person through whom power flows, from one axis to another.

Right now, Jacinda is weak. How can it be that Winston thinks it’s ok to sue the government of which he is a part? Jacinda needs to tell him to keep it in his pants until this term is up. Call me old fashioned, but the deputy PM does not sue the government while he is part of that government. And she needs to give him this message, mano a mano. It’s what a prime minister does.

The oil and gas thing was a major mistake. She had a chance to win points in the centre, and she completely fluffed it. NZF did not make her do that, she did it to herself. She’s not in control, she’s just trying to manage the traffic in the coalition. That’s not what I pay her for.

I love the fact she’s having a baby. I also have zero interest in anything to do with her baby. As I have zero interest in her partner and self appointed “kiwi bloke in chief” Clark Gayford and his fish. If he could STFU, that would be great. Her family is a special thing, but go away and do it in your own special and private way and come back when you are ready. Don’t use your family as political candy.

by Retired-Poppy | 11th Jun 18, 7:37pm 1528702641

Ones hopes she didn't first learn of this from the media. Beside, how does Peters substantiate $450K worth of damages? The alleged leak hardly ruined his career prospects.

by Bobster | 11th Jun 18, 8:41pm 1528706489

Look, Peters lawyer is (I think) Brian Henry. Brian is a longstanding legal advisor to Peters. It seems to be a mutually beneficial thing, I dont think Henry is doing this for free. Churn, churn. Pete’s and Henry have been caught out in shenanigans before, see attached. All good fun. Not. I recall it being quite a scandal at the time that ALMOST got me to the point where I lodged a complaint with the law society about Brian Henry’s conduct. Yuk.

https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/document/48HansD_20…

by Bobster | 11th Jun 18, 10:12pm 1528711943

This makes a slightly different point, but is consistent with my theme. Jacinda is in office but not in power.

http://nzh.tw/12068645

by Bobster | 11th Jun 18, 10:18pm 1528712320

And this!?

http://nzh.tw/12068606

“All targets of Peters'action are entitled to apply to the Cabinet to have their legal fees paid - the Cabinet which Peters will be leading.”

WTF!?

by Robt. | 15th Jun 18, 9:15pm 1529054143

Kiwisaver forecasts so far into the future? A single cycle of high rinflation alone would make all projections meaningless. This minister is "Active". Had a laugh at that.