A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; TD rate changes, personal loan 'special', big construction pipeline, job ads rise, swaps & NZD stable

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; TD rate changes, personal loan 'special', big construction pipeline, job ads rise, swaps & NZD stable

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has trimmed some rates. Details here. SBS Bank has cut its 9 month rate from 3.55% back to 3.40%. The Firefighters Credit Union has taken -10 bps off its 6 month rate.

PERSONAL LOAN RATE REDUCED
ANZ has launched a 'special' for its personal loan interest rate, reducing its standard 17.95% by -400 bps to 13.95% as a 'special'.

BIG PROJECTS STRETCH OUT AHEAD
MBIE's National Construction Pipeline Report is out today. It says the industry will need to invest more to take advantage of steady growth, instead of relying on quick fixes like importing workers. Our own Auckland Major Projects monitoring has swelled with projects that almost total $65 bln.

SMALL SUCCESS RISE
Our monitoring shows that almost 40% of residential properties auctioned at Bayleys and Eves in upper North Island sold last week. Prices started at $615,000 at Bayleys' latest Auckland auctions.

SOLID RISE
New job ads on Seek grew by +6.5% in June compared to the same month last year.

THE BIG LEAGUES
We are used to reading of mega orders placed by airlines for new aircraft. Such buying is a key driver of the world's economy. But over the weekend it was revealed that SOE China Railway Corp. has agreed to buy 3,756 new locomotives and 216,000 carriages for freight trains in the next three years in anticipation of a +30% rise in freight volumes. The buying at this level is almost double what was bought over the previous five years. The value is NZ$21.5 bln. (But to put that in perspective, check the value of Auckland's major projects above.)

SWAP RATES LITTLE CHANGED
Local swap rates are virtually unchanged today although the ten year is down -1 bp. The UST 10yr is down by -2 bps from Friday and now at 2.96%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.65, also down -2 bps, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.56% up +1 bp, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.76%, down -1 bp. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.91%.

BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$8,204 which is alsmost the same level we started today at.

NZD FLAT-LINING
The NZD is little changed at 68 USc in the shadow of a Wall Street open. And it is also holding on the cross rates at 91.9 AUc, and the euro at 58.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 up a little at 71.4.

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Some recent Irish data from their annual wealth booklet. Value of housing stock 400 billion E, (GDP 300B euro), average home worth 250K up from 165K recent low point. 4500 Irishmen are housing millionaires up 750 y/y.
40 percent of the housing wealth is in Dublin, making up 1 percent of Ireland's land mass. 53 of the 10000 property segments across Ireland have average values above 1 million. In 2018 Dublin completed 15200 new homes up 3 times the number built in 2014.

All quiet on the mortgage rate front of late.

Can't go up for fear of creating an increase in the number of impaired loans (John Key mentioned that the number of delinquencies were rising).

Can't go down because that tightens the banks margins now that cost of funds are rising internationally.

Which way will they go?

If I were a banker, I'd hike. Then make a few newsworthy examples out of delinquent borrowers, citing that this is what happens when you don't pay back your debts.