A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; no rate changes, healthy car sales, more house listings, healthy China trade, a low-emissions plan, swaps hold, NZD hanging in there

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here today either.

MORE CARS, LESS SUVs
There were 8,639 new cars sold in August, a +0.4% rise over the same month a year ago. But that was no record for an August. (As a bit of trivia, 43 years ago in August 1975, there were 10,554 new cars sold in the month.) In August 2018 just less than 62% were SUVs, the lowest percentage in six months.

MORE LISTINGS
The housing market remains on a steady course as new listings start to rise as we head into spring, Realestate.co.nz says. Nationally, there are 18 weeks of inventory in the system; in Auckland 22 weeks. Both levels are very similar to the same month in 2017. There is also evidence that auction clearance rates are rising as well.

WINNING RELATIONSHIPS
New Zealand has a very healthy trading relationship with China, according to data released today. Our overall trade surplus with them rose by a remarkable +67% in the year to June to reach +$4.3 bn. Our trade in goods was a deficit of -$1.1 bln in the 2016 year and this has turned around to a +$1.7 bln surplus in the latest period. Our trade in services has always been to our advantage, rising from +$2.3 bln last year to +$2.6 bln in 2018. The visitor trade is boosting our position with many other countries, but with China our advantage is growing very fast with the goods trade. Actually the story is similar with Australia; our surplus in the trade in goods is rising, our deficit with them in services is falling. Overall we have a growing trade surplus with Australia.

A DOABLE PLAN
In another giant review (meaning, it is 600+ pages), the productivity Commission says we need to gear up to produce +65% more clean energy by 2050 if we are to keep pace with our expected energy demand and reach our low-emissions economy targets. (Cue nimbys.) We have a plan, and it seems doable. (The contrast with the Australian approach couldn't be more stark. In fact, these diametrically opposed approaches are likely to cause political stress in coming years unless Australia can veer away from its Trump-orbit track.) If you don't want to wade through their 600 pages, just read our review. They counsel against direct subsidies; rather they say pricing carbon emissions use should be the approach.

ANOTHER DAIRY PRICE SET
We have another dairy auction early tomorrow morning. The derivatives market thinks the new lower prices at the last auction will hold - no rise, no more falls. But they have a spotty record of prediction.

A NEW BIGGER BLOB
The Government has signaled that it is planning to 'reform' the 49,000 person Public Service, drawing its various parts together into one big integrated structure. Apparently this will deliver better service to citizens. 'Agile' is an overused term in large private organisations and it is very hard to see that the proposed Public Service change will be anything like 'agile' after this bureaucratic change.

A BIT OF A BLOWOUT
Australia's current account deficit in the June quarter came in sharply larger than markets were expecting. In the year to June, it rose to -AU$54.1 bln or -3.9% of GDP. The same data for 2017 was a deficit of -$38.8 bln or -2.9% of GDP. This is not an inconsiderable deterioration. (The New Zealand current account result for June will not be released until September 19. At the March review, our deficit was -2.8% of GDP.) Currency markets ignored the Aussie current account deterioration.

SWAP RATES LITTLE CHANGED
There is no change today except for the longer durations which are lower by -1 bp. The UST 10yr is unchanged at 2.86%. The UST 2-10 curve is just on +23 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.51% (up +1 bp), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.62% (up +1 bp), while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.54%, unchanged. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps to 1.90%. (The record low was 1.86% in December 2017.)

BITCOIN FLAT
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday at US$7,283.

NZD HANGING IN THERE
The NZD is down a little more to just on 66 USc. On the cross rates we are holding at 91.7 AUc, and still just under 56.9 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 69.8. 

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