A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; no rate changes, house sales 'normal', Anderson passes, swaps softer and flatter, NZD holds high, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes have been advised today - yet.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

A NEW LEASE OF LIFE?
Residential sales volumes came in substantially higher in October than the same month a year ago, but that was an unusually low benchmark. In fact, October 2018 volumes sold were almost exactly the average for an October over the past seven years. In Auckland, they were -13.5% lower than that seven year average even if they were +15% higher than October 2017. Despite the rising level of unsold properties listed on the various property portals, median prices are still growing at over +6% nationally, although there is virtually no growth in Auckland over the past year. In Christchurch the growth is a minimal +3%, while in Wellington it is +14% where it has been up more than +10% pa for all of 2018. In addition to Wellington, seven regions - and they are worth identifying here; Northland, Bay of Plenty, Hawkes Bay, Manawatu, Tasman, Nelson and Otago - all have recorded median price gains of +10% or more. And we are not tending to see longer 'days-to-sell' data but remember this metric should always for read as 'days-to-sell-at-the-final-agent'. (And because the better data was primarily away from Auckland, it seems unlikely that the impending foreign buyer ban is having much impact.)

YOUNG & STRUGGLING
Stats NZ published estimates for the Māori population in 2018 today which shows this ethnicity makes up 15% of the resident population as at June, up from 14% 25 years ago but down slightly over the past three years when it reached 15.6%. The median age of this population is very young at 25 years and far below the overall population median age of 37 years. But the Māori median is up from 21 years 25 years ago while the overall median is up from 31 years. Given that there likely were about 100,000 Māori when British sailor James Cook arrived here, it is sadly clear that the original inhabitants haven't exactly flourished over the intervening centuries.

VALE JOHN ANDERSON
Sir John Anderson, the chief executive of the National Bank from 1990 until its takeover by ANZ in 2003, has died aged 73. He was a well respected business leader, going on to other important roles in business, government and sports after banking.

PRIVATISING THE BENEFITS, SOCIALISING THE LOSSES
Nice idea, but ... In Australia, the Federal Government signaled it will establish an Australian Business Securitisation Fund, which will invest up to AU$2 bln in packaged small business loans from smaller banks and non-bank lenders. The funding will come from Commonwealth bonds and the investments will be treated as assets on the Federal accounts, which means the scheme will not increase net debt but will expose their taxpayers to the resulting bad debts.

AUSSIE WAGES RISE FASTER THAN INFLATION
And staying in Australia, hourly pay rates across rose +2.3% in the year to September, and right on market expectations. That's its fastest rise in three years. Public sector wages rose faster at the rate of +2.5%, private sector wages rose +2.1% pa. (The overall New Zealand equivalent (QES) data has ours rising +2.1% pa but with our private sector rising faster.)

AUSSIE EARNINGS WORRIES
Nothing special to report on equity indexes on Wall Street or Shanghai, but the ASX is down more than -1.2% today on a series of poor earnings reports. And the NZX50 is slipping too, but not so much.

DIRTY DATA
And in other data out today, Chinese industrial production actually rose in October, which wasn't expected. However, retail sales came in surprisingly weak and even below weak expectations. One closely-watch piece of data shows only a +4.8% rise in electricity production. Sadly, Chinese coal production rose +8% and coal imports were up slightly more.

SWAP RATES SOFTER, FLATTER AGAIN
Swap rates are unchanged for two years, down -1 bp for five years, and down -2 bps for ten years. That repeats the softening and flattening we saw yesterday. The UST 10yr is holding at 3.15% today but the 2-10 curve has slipped to under +25 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.73%, down -1 bp, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.50% and unchanged, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.81% and that is down another -1 bps today. The 90 day bank bill rate is up again to 2.01% and that is a +10 bps rise in ten business days and the largest such rise since 2015.

BITCOIN DIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price has slipped further today to just on US$6,262, a dip of less than -1%.

NZD HOLDS HIGH
The NZD has actually risen slightly from this morning to 67.7 USc. But on the cross rates we are holding at 93.6 AU, and at 59.9 euro cent. That puts the TWI-5 at just on 72.3 and a five month high.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.