A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; Kiwibank cuts 2yr home loan rate, Westpac raises one year TD rate, lakes full, lamb prices high, wholesale trade sags, swaps slip, NZD holds

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has changed some rates, including making its two year rate very competitive.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac has cut its nine month TD rate, and raised its one year TD rate.

NZ'S BATTERIES WELL CHARGED
New Zealand's hydro lakes are in great shape. They are substantially fuller in 2018 than the same time in 2017, and they are currently about +20% fuller than the 90 year average. We are going into the heart of winter when run-off falls away quite quickly (because it sits as snow-pack) in a very good position. Snow melt won't start until about late August / early September. But the cold snap has also raised demand, so we are seeing wholesale price rises at this time, although that is fairly normal in this part of the season.

HAPPY SHEEP FARMERS
Those who follow sheep and beef prices will have noted the very strong lamb prices currently. Not only are saleyard prices high, but schedule prices are the highest we have ever seen them in early June (our records go back to 2008). The price peak for the season is in November, and there is usually a +$10/hd gain from now till then. If that happens this year, there will be a lot of very happy sheep farmers out there. Those that didn't 'diversify' a few years ago will be feeling vindicated. Peak prices for steers and bulls have vanished in the past two years, but cattle prices are still relatively firm from an historical perspective.

MPB UPDATE
The number of farms under regulatory control for mycoplasma bovis has been reduce from 300 to 200. The number of farms with confirmed infections has been reduced from 39 to 36 (it started at 44). The number of cows culled already is 24,500 on 28 of those infected properties. They are now in decontamination procedures. $9.3 mln of claims have been received to date and 80%+ has been paid out already. MPI expects plenty of bumps along the road; these won't be anything like the final figures.

SLOWER & FATTER
Another part of the puzzle for our Q1-2018 GDP result fell into place today, the wholesale trade data. That was fairly flat, indicating some wind is going out of our economy's sails and confirms other modest-to-moderate data in the period. Worryingly, inventories are rising. That pressure may be behind the falling business confidence surveys. The 'rock-star' is losing his mojo and putting on weight. Those GDP outcomes will be reported on Thursday, June 21.

NOT WORLD RANKING
Worried about our debt-to-GDP ratio? Check out this comparative.

FINGERS CROSSED
Go the ABs (vs France).

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES SLIP
Local swap rates are lower and flatter today. The two year duration has slipped by -1 bp, the five year by -2 bps, and the ten year also by -2 bps. This come after the UST 10yr yield gave up yesterday's gains, falling by -4 bps to 2.94%. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.81%, down -3 bps. The China 10 yr is unchanged at 3.69%. But the NZ Govt 10 yr is down -2 bps to 2.87%. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.00%.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$7,673, down -0.8% from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The NZD is virtually unmoved from the local open this morning, now at 70.2 USc. We are also stable against the Aussie at 92.2 AUc and at 59.5 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 now at 72.9.

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