CoreLogic's Nick Goodall wraps up the past year in the New Zealand residential property market and looks ahead at what the New Year might bring

By Nick Goodall*

If the NZ property market were a person, it will have dragged its heels back to work after a year of constant change, unrelenting pressure and left-field surprises.

Like all well intentioned self-improvers, it would have taken time over the summer break to reflect on the year that was, before embracing what’s coming next. And by all accounts, what a year 2017 was. 

It started hot on the heels of a major milestone ticking over:  the total value of all residential property in NZ passing the trillion dollar barrier. That’s a lot of value in one asset class and reinforces just how much property is an obsession here.

In early 2017 this was the lay of the land: 

  • The LVR restrictions had recently been tightened by the Reserve Bank of NZ. Heading into 2018, those restrictions have been loosened - albeit only marginally.
  • NZ had not long sworn in a new Prime Minister after John Key surprisingly stepped down in December 2016. Fast forward a year and once again we have a new Prime Minister in Jacinda Ardern, plus a whole new Government too.
  • The global audience was still getting its head around both the Brexit vote and Trump’s election victory and what it was all going to do for the world’s economy. Turns out that not too much impact was felt by NZ’s property market. 

Moving from politics back to property - despite a slowing of property values leading into 2017 there remained concern about prices increasing and the level of debt being incurred, especially by investors. Of course this was the main driver for the Reserve Bank tightening the LVR restrictions in late 2016 - lifting the minimum deposit requirement for investors to 40%.

From this point onwards we saw a sustained impact on property values, especially in Auckland. While previous LVR restrictions had only impacted the market short term, this time their effect was felt long term. They weren’t the sole reason for the slowdown though.

Mortgage interest rates had moved up past their record lows and slowly inched higher. But perhaps more crucially the retail banks were beginning to tighten up the purse strings, with tougher lending criteria and more stringent stress testing around the serviceability of mortgages.

This lead to sales activity getting significantly dented across the country but as the area with the most expensive property in NZ*, Auckland was the hardest hit. After enjoying the biggest growth over the previous four years, from April 2017 onwards Auckland’s sales volumes were consistently down 30%.

An increase in total listings meant more choice for active buyers, who were actually diminishing in numbers. This combination meant lesser reason for prices to rise, which contributed to the slowdown too.   

And then came winter. 

All the factors mentioned above contributed to it being a particularly freezing one for NZ’s property market, influenced further by the impending General Election.  From July we got bombarded with election advertising and endless policy debates - which added just a touch of uncertainty to the future. Initially National was very clearly in the lead, so the possibility of leadership change was minimal. But Jacinda Ardern quickly changed all that, with her promotion to the top job in August bringing Labour back into contention. Once again, people wondered about the property market’s future.

This was also when property investors started to struggle. Yield from investments had already significantly reduced, capital gains were drying up without sign of improvement, and securing funding was proving difficult.  This trio of challenges meant mortgaged investors’ share of sales reduced to less than 25% (from a peak of 28%) nationwide. Remember that flow of Auckland investors into other regions as well?  It soon began to taper off too. 

While this was all going on, first home buyers were actually increasing their share of sales - although it’s worth noting that while all buyers were affected by the tightening of credit, it was investors affected the most. This meant the share of sales to first home buyers actually increased.

Property investors (or speculators to be more accurate) now find themselves under increased scrutiny from the new Government. The Healthy Homes Guarantee Bill passed in November, meaning improved standards for rental properties. About the same time foreign investors were also targeted, with foreign buyers soon to be effectively banned from buying existing property in NZ. So no respite in 2018 for some investors then, especially with expected tax changes to end the ability to negatively gear investment property and the extension of the Brightline test to five years to further ensure short term capital gains are taxed. 

Before the year was out we did see a very late spring lift in both sales activity and values in Auckland but then the summer break meant things came to a grinding halt. The NZ property market was busy panic buying at Kmart and fretting over whether to My Food Bag the Christmas lunch or not. We now won’t see a decent level of activity return from the summer lull until later this month.

So after all this, where did we end up? 

The statistics tell us that what it meant for Auckland was an overall value increase of 0.4% through 2017, but mixed results within the Super City; Auckland City finished up 2.2%, as did Papakura, but Waitakere ended the year down 1.9% and Manukau down 1.0% - easily the worst performing of our larger centres nationwide. Christchurch also finished the 2017 year below where it started, albeit by a very slim margin of 0.1%. 

Of the stronger performers, it was Dunedin that outpaced the rest of the ‘big 6’, realising a touch over 10% growth throughout the year. Wider Wellington (including Porirua and the Hutt) wasn’t far behind - rebounding from its early year slowdown to finish the year with 9.4% growth in values, with Porirua the pick of the bunch at 13.2% growth.

Meanwhile, Hamilton fared only slightly better than Auckland with 1.6% growth. Tauranga tried to get momentum again after hitting the brakes in early 2017 but couldn’t sustain it, ending the year up only 3.2%.

Outside our main six centres the best and worst were Masterton (19.6%), Horowhenua (16.5%) and Wanganui (15.1%) on top and Selwyn (0.3%), Waimakariri (1.7%) and Timaru (5.1%) at the bottom.

Now for that trillion dollar question …what does 2018 have in store?

Scanning across a few of the big influencers, net migration turned properly mid-way through 2017 after throwing a few dummy passes earlier to keep us all on our toes. It’s likely to continue to drop in 2018 as the Government reduces the in-flow of low skilled migrants and we start to lose Kiwis to Australia again (after gaining for the better part of the last two years).

Consumer confidence held up quite well through 2017 but is looking like its feelings are little bit hurt as we move into 2018. The weakness in the property market will be affecting that, but the strength of the labour market is holding it up, and that should remain relatively strong in 2018.

A major influencer on property values is mortgage interest rates. As has been well covered, a key part of those is the official cash rate which is tipped to stay on hold for 2018, but many economists are picking some upward pressure on mortgage rates due to the cost of funding for the banks.

So, plenty of macro-economic factors pointing to property demand remaining relatively constrained in 2018, but of course significant constraints on the construction industry remain, so supply will still lag. While there are ambitious Government targets to improve overall supply, particularly in Auckland, it’s unlikely that things will happen fast enough to massively improve the current demand/supply imbalance.

And don’t forget the research we released in the middle of 2017 which exposed that the actual increase in stock (6,000 units in 2016) is far behind those being consented (9,000 units in 2016). This is partly because the demolition of old properties to clear space for new properties isn’t taken into account with the ‘building consents issued’ measure.

So while building consents provide a high level health check of the construction industry, and they are trending upwards, they’re not always telling the whole story.

In Auckland we’ll probably see values remain relatively flat for most of 2018, barring a local or global economic shock. With more properties available, the fear of missing out has been removed - taking with it the previous upwards price pressure. People can once again save faster than the growth in property values (so waiting can actually pay off), plus it’s harder to secure funding…all adding up to constrained demand.  

Elsewhere we may see value growth continue a bit longer, particularly in Wellington and Dunedin where there remains a shortage of available listings and where the growth phase took a little longer to kick in than places like Hamilton and Tauranga. These centres will also likely see a period of consolidation as unaffordability starts to bite.

Christchurch is a city all on its own in terms of where it’s at in the property market cycle. It’s been more subdued throughout the last few years as it matures from the earthquake rebuild. There is still substantial development in the region, despite passing the residential construction peak. There are concerns of over-supply in some parts of the region but it doesn’t appear to be wide-spread, which should mean relative stability for 2018.

In our smaller centres, debate remains as to whether the strong growth of 2016/17 was actually warranted.  Some areas have benefitted from being in close proximity to larger centres, while others had stronger local economies to justify growth. Local knowledge is unbeatable in every case. But on the whole, migration to these areas has slowed: jobs drying up and value growth made property less affordable. So with the upwards pressure on mortgage interest rates having the same effect as anywhere in the country, it’s unlikely the strong recent growth will be sustained. 

So long story short, NZ’s property market may very well have concluded that it’s time to settle down for a year of re-evaluation and reflection, after a few spent living it up like a 20-something on their OE. 


*Nick Goodall is Head of Research for CoreLogic NZ. This article was originally published here. It is reproduced by permission.

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79 Comments

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We are still importing far, far too many people. Here in Hamilton houses are being built like there is no tomorrow and yet there still seems to be shortages. Think we have to stop this for a while and figure out another way to do this without massive population increases, especially now that the human race must stop and take stock and do something about our overpopulation of the planet.
Oh and on John Key's sudden departure, I am now thinking that the announcement of that would have been about the time when he got offered $20mill for part of his Parnell property, knew he would need a considerable amount of breathing space between being out of politics and the deliberately set long settlement date. Would explain the suddenness of the decision and announcement, because I reckon no-one knew he was going to do it much more than a week out from it.

PocketAces, keep building those houses in Hamilton and the people will come - from Auckland!

I thought Jacinda was going to slow down immigration by having them arrive on boats instead of airplanes.

Interesting to see the front page of the Waikato Times today going on about a shortage of rental properties and that rental price might increase due to the demand for such properties
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/100680598/squeeze-on-for-renta...

Growth is happening in Hamilton at long last after the slowdown from 2008 to 2015. It's not that fast either imo, around 1.5 % pa The opposite to growth is too depressing so I'm glad and it's making Hamilton desirable instead of being the butt of jokes. Pocketaces there are several nice towns for you e.g. tokoroa that you would love

is growth an increase in house prices ?

..oh yes..john Key economics 101...House prices, traffic congestion and dirty rivers. The main indicators. Worth a knighthood.

"Here in Hamilton houses are being built like there is no tomorrow" quote from pocketaces

Get with the program andrewj

Oh yeah, its really wonderful watching productive farmland going under the bulldozer to be concreted over just because, well, just because. It is now time for the entire human race to work on figuring out how we stop this nonsense, because we cannot keep doing it much longer.
I wonder how long you think we can keep this up for, at this nutty rate?

Urban sprawl. Fill Twyford is determined to Fill the class 1 quality pukekohe land with houses and anyone who doesn't want to sell because they are using the land productively will be made to comply (whip whip)

While I agree his is not doing enough to preserve all of it, he is not of a mind to concrete over all of it either. Have you had any personal contact with him about this? I have.

No and I hope I don't have to. Question for you, how do you know when Affordable Fill Twyford is on the level? Answer, he has Sh#t coming out both ears. I would like this govt more if it wasn't for all the hyperbole and hypocrisy. Just today Shane Jones admitted his plan to plant a billion trees is unachievable (surprise surprise). How many more failures will there be?

Pretty hard to count before the fact, however, pretty easy to count after. I am hopeful, but just as happy to hold their feet to the fire as anyone else's. I think bringing Shane Jones was a bad move, he is and always was full of p and w, wonder if you would have the same view of him had Winnie gone with the Nats.

I think Nick Goodall has got it broadly correct.

The housing market has been relatively flat since Oct/Nov 2016 and is likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future. But people are becoming accustomed to the elevated prices brought about by the 2014-16 upswing and are steadily adjusting to them.

In a number of key regions, there's a dire shortage of houses which is currently being reflected in steeply rising rentals. Thus, there remain strong financial incentives for people in all age groups to purchase a dwelling. Buyer competition for good, well-located properties will remain robust.

Of the main centres, I'd pick Wellington as the one with the greatest capital growth potential through 2018-19. But Auckland will hold its own - with the high-demand inner-city suburbs showing steady growth.

I certainly don't write off provincial cities: a number of them will continue to prosper - and many provide for an idyllic lifestyle (at lower cost).

Finally, it's interesting to note the latest foreign visitor statistics. There's been an explosion in foreign tourist numbers: 3.7 million last year, up from 500,000 just two decades ago. That's evidence that people abroad are keenly interested in New Zealand. And I hear from travel agents that there are plenty who would relish living here........

TTP

I agree ttp but disagree with your tourist numbers. I think one decade ago there was over 2 million to 2.5 m int tourists pa

The actual tourist arrival data is

- year to Nov-1997 = 1.522 mln
- year to Nov-2007 = 2.467 mln
- year to Nov-2017 = 3.715 mln (latest)

Tourism worldwide has exploded. We aren't special in that regard. My wife is a travel broker, everyone wants to live somewhere when their on holiday... Fiji, Gold Coast, Samoa, Vancouver blah blah blah,

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I'm not sure how "Auckland" has "enjoyed" the biggest growth in prices.

Imagine if some mouth breather suggested Auckland "enjoyed" the biggest rise in council rates, food prices, car prices, petrol prices and so on...

But housing is special!

All depends entirely on the age of the mouth breather.

My pick for 2018 is waikato and bay of plenty will have plenty of action in housing and property in general.

Aucklanders still pouring into Hawkes Bay, for jobs, & cheap (cf Auckland) houses.

"Pouring in" ? How can that be? The data says Hawkes Bay residential house sales are down -13% year-on-year ? (Aucklanders are selling less too, down -6%.)

Ok, some exaggeration there.
There is a shortage of listings which is a contributor of lower sales.
A 30% increase of inwards migration.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503462...
Prices up ~ 15% over the last year?

Hawkes Bay property is still very good value despite the past two years rapid increases, especially so if you have sold (any) property in Auckland. That said, Aucklanders ought to be a little careful if they're coming to Hawkes Bay and looking for work - salaries here are not what they are in Auckland, especially if employed by local Hawkes Bay companies, some of which don't pay nearly as much as in the big city. As an Aucklander who relocated to Napier, I'd say the lifestyle in the bay IS fantastic, but I'd suggest anyone making the move to make enquiries about employment / jobs first, lest you get a surprise.

So has anything really changed ?

The new Government has now acknowledged that it has recognized the constraints in building affordable housing , so a mass housing public works scheme will likely not happen

The LTVR has done a lot of damage to ordinary Kiwis and given a headstart to anyone with access to foreign money where it is significantly cheaper to borrow.

There is still a housing backlog in Auckland , my adult children for example are not likely to be able to afford to buy a home anytime soon .

Auckland is a market all of its own , and market conditions here are in complete contrast to the provinces where demand ( and thus prices ) remain subdued .

"The new Government has now acknowledged that it has recognized the constraints in building affordable housing "
do you have a link to this proclamation?

Hi Housing Overpriced,

[ Personal insult removed. Ed ] ... the Labour-led Govt won't be able to meet its extravagant election bribe/promises concerning KiwiBuild.

Resource constraints are formidable in the construction sector - and are destined to stay that way for a long time. A dwelling built by the public sector equates to one less dwelling built by the private sector.

There's no point having warm fuzzies about Labour meeting the country's demand for housing within the next few years. Put simply, it won't.

TTP

[ Personal insult removed. Ed ]

my question was very specific to a point raised, [ Insult removed. Ed]

Kudos.

TTP, ed has kindly removed my personal insults towards you.

Its a New year, all I request of you is to THINK before you comment..

resource constraints - Physical labour yes I agree. Product restraints are due the the Fletchers/Hardies/Carters Cartels holding guns to our heads, via BRANZ etc... It needs tearing to bits and rebuilding.

AM Live interview with Jacinda Ardern last week

Wellington is likely to have another good year, a 10% rise is on the cards. A Labour government is in power and there is a massive shortage of housing.

Funnily, the person who I mentioned previously, trying to sell their flat Wellington (and a very nice flat it is too) still hasn't sold. They received one single offer since spring and was affronted that it was only $10k above the RV so turned it down. And it has since remained on the market. RE Agent initially told the owner it would likely sell within 5 days so they went ahead and bought another place, and now struggling to currently pay two mortgages.

Obviously this is only one anecdote, but I notice that after the usual low inventory dip at early January, the number of listings in Wellington has started shooting up again, and we haven't even got passed Anniversary Day yet. Using early January as an example of a housing shortage is unhelpful, because there is always very low inventory at that time. I would suggest that an accurate analysis on inventory can't be done till March/April.

gingerninja, presuming the flat is not currently let, listening to the agent has proven costly and more so with each passing day of accruing interest.

Realestate.co.nz listing for Auckland up approx 150 since Wed. Its possible a renewed surge in listings has resumed post holidays.........

They haven't rented it out no. Their belief that it would sell quickly and well is very strong. Despite several months languishing on the market. I actually don't know why it hasn't sold. I shared the listing here and no one else could understand either, it's a perfectly lovely, saleable, well located property.
It might just be that the market in Wellington is not as hot as spruikers and RE agents are touting but only time will tell. By April there should be a clearer picture.

The market is hot if you've got exactly the right property. Maybe it's not what people are looking for. If it doesn't seem soon they should rent it out as the rental shortage is a massive problem, and a lot of my friends are getting stuck with rent increases right now.

It's not a good time to be a renter in Wellington right now. The surge of student population with the universities and Labour's free first year is significant.

Palmy 'bbq scene' as buoyant as i can ever remember it. People who never thought much about buying a house have got a rocket up them as the emotion of missing out kicks in. Considering 90k population in palmy now and only a couple hundred houses for sale (less to rent) , there is a massive amount of unsatisfied demand out there that will feed the palmy market for another few years (fhb, lower end at least with trickle through to mid/higher end).

Wellington/hutt investors also using increased equity to buy in Palmy, seeing more welly out of towners than aucklanders recently.

Another 10% plus price gain in 2018 for palmy is a certainty imho

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Haha.
Fear of missing out in Palmy. Pretty unbelievable, that.
Unless of course it's the fear of missing out on living in the Invercargill of the north, or marrying cousins.

Surely it's more a case of fear of missing out elsewhere and ending up in Palmerston North?

Or is the rental situation so acute in Wellington they're travelling the 2 hours return from Palmy? - NAH surely not!

I suggest a lot of students backed financially by equity rich parents are up against a strong and imported workforce also competing for flats. It's a perfect storm that is unlikely to last for very long especially if parents equity is eroded and the labour market deteriorates in the coming years.

There is, in fact, a sizeable group commuting by rail from Palmy to Wgtn each day. (Just go to the Palmy railway station at 5.30am Monday to Friday and you can meet them.)

But agree, it makes one shudder. I suppose it must be cost-effective - especially if you like trains!

TTP

500 people use the Capital Connection service from PN to Wgtn - they are subsidised a staggering $2000 each per year on operating costs alone.

it's expensive

Net migration INTO Palmy last 3 years (year end october):

2015: 780
2016: 1096
2017: 1341

Palmy and Hamilton always get grief from big brother cities nearby - nothing new there, try raising a family in either auck or welly though and you'll see why places like Palmy are becoming more and more popular

Yep. Just as I thought.
The demand for cheap weddings is increasing, I see.
Same family = half the invitees.

On a serious note, though, what is that in relative terms and how does it compare to Hawkes Bay and Taranaki?
Also, remember to factor out student migration.

0.56% , identical to hawks bay. NP slightly lower at 0.50%. All for year end Oct 2017 as % of population.

This is overseas people inward less people departing the region for overseas destination. Australia dollar not what it once was nor is their labour market (no 100k driving a truck jobs in the mines anymore) - this is why places like HB and Palmy are growing faster than expected, less leaving, more returning, plus a share of the huge Asain boost

You have netted out the student differential in those numbers?

It's a bit pointless having the student numbers in there when comparing between Manawatu and Hawkes Bay, as they are really only transitive.

This is net permanent and long-term migration at regional level (table 11b).

What's the chip on your shoulder about Palmy anyway?

So this is all Manawatu - Wanganui?
Not just Palmy?

You should always judge a place by how willing you are to visit it.
I have never in my life had the urge to visit Palmy.

Link to the tables?

The numbers for palmy will be even higher as it is by far and away the fastest growing part of the manawatu -wanganui region (which includes many small dying towns extending past taupo that drags the averages down). The region has a population of 240k, 88k in Palmy, the rest spread far and wide. Of the 1341 net migrants to region more than (88/240) would end up in Palmy as it's the central hub full of education, research, logistic, farm service, nz largest Army base, large air force base nearby -

If you haven't visited then I suggest your opinion isn't worth a hell of a lot. Most of the best performing property markets are not tourist attractions (South Auckland, porirua, hutt valley), but are areas close to work and education opportunities.

I didn't say I haven't visited.
It's just every time I have, I have tried to get out of it (work).
I'm sorry but Palmy is the most boring city in the North Island, by far.

Can you provide the data?

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-net-migration-remains-high-in-october

Knock yourself out (literally, for all our benefit..)

Are you sure that's the correct link, Simon?
That's aggregated data... Not regional data...

'Boring'? The world's ya mirror mate - you have just spent half ya morning on a comments section of a financial information website debating migration data . . .

Tit for tatt.
You are doing the same, which could imply that debating over regional migration data is less boring than the perpetual state of where you live; Palmy.

Except I live in Wellington... And have skin in the game. How about yourself?

Hi nymad,

Can you provide data on the boringness/dissatisfaction re Palmerston North, or is it just your personal bias? Have you ever actually lived there?

For what it's worth, I have come across a number of people who have lived in Palmy for a long time and really do enjoy it.

TTP

Stereotypes exist, mainly because in many ways they are true.
Palmy didn't get the rep it has by accident.
Much like you don't have the stereotype you possess on this site, by accident.

Second that~~ but the problem now at least for most western society is that stereotyping anything is considered evil with out really having a good discussion on why those stereotypes exist. Like if you saw a snake or a big spider in your garden or home most would find it a shock and then find ways to remove it. Not all snakes or spiders are harmful but is what most normal people would see them as for self preservation, but applying that for other humans or region is a absolute no no with further considerations.....

Marrying cousins??? Wow!!! If true then maybe that can be their selling point!! As some people are in to that kind of thing.... palmy.. the land where you can marry your cousin without being looked down :)

Hi Simon,

Yes - agree with you.

Palmy is percolating. There's a huge shortage of good property in Palmy - especially in the best areas, such as Hokowhitu. Sections are especially scarce there. I note the recent strong trend of reasonable quality houses being demolished to free up land for new-build houses/townhouses. That's never happened before.

Palmy has excellent investment potential - and a great place for families and retirees.

TTP

.

Phase II of the Auckland mega-sprawl development plan is now starting to take effect.

Phase I was building remote sprawls from Pukekohe to Warkworth whilst shutting off land supply to metropolitan Auckland. Now Phase II is a city of extensive sprawl competing against more traditional compact modes of development. Phase II is likely years of stagnation and decline relative to the rest of Australasia, whilst servicing a spiralling debt load.

If the govt follows thru on its promises then gravity should kick in. If they turn into banking lapdogs like National then probably more of the same. Place your bets and spin the wheel.

This report has nicely summed up what happened last year ...

Just for the benefit of the wise ... Gravity will kick in for the 500 - 600 K properties in Auckland ( both new and existing) only if there were enough Kiwi build homes to make such a growing demand .... and it will only influence values in this price range ... Anything that is over $1M will Appreciate by a combination of rate of rise in building costs and CPI -- Some may think that the tide lowers and raises all boats !! -- Not in the > 200m2 category, it wont ...That will remain strongly tied to Location and replacement costs and that is built to satisfy the demand of certain eshalone of buyers ...
Yield is secondary for new investment buyers as they should have gone in with a view of long term CG return ... Yields do not affect Homeowners.

'Yields do not affect home owners'....so you're saying that investment fundamentals no longer apply to the housing market? (price reflects expected income). Might as well call houses 'gold' or 'bitcoin'....

You have missed my point - Rental Yields have no effect on Owner Occupiers ( i.e home owners) - this has nothing to do with investment fundamentals !!

to Call Investing in Residential or Commercial property like Bitcoin or Gold is meaningless ... Chalk and Cheese !! ... Real Estate prices is mostly governed by S&D - the others are mostly manipulated ...

Interesting blog article here too: https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2018/01/16/zoning-politics-many-not/

Bring on the YIMBYs in Auckland.

It’s an interesting concept and I can see it working in areas that have large rental stocks and are ready for redevelopment.

Eventually ALL markets must relate to the amount people can afford to pay. This will happen to the New Zealand housing market but the big questions are how and when.

But clearly people can afford to buy on finance. The slowdown is related to the higher lvr

Yes, in the long run market prices must relate to the amount people can afford to pay. But in the meantime before the long run meets with reality, market prices relate more to how recklessly banks are prepared to lend rather than ability of buyer's to pay. Over the last 5 years, banker's lending standards have been lax in the extreme.

Indeed, this I think is pretty much true for most if not all markets and services and that seems to be ignored.

It was interesting a few years back (July 2008) with oil going to 148US a barrel and some ppl were predicting $200, $300 and even $500 a barrel was possible. Instead the "impossible happened" (ie oil was "essential" so ppl HAD to pay what ever the price demanded, queue oil execs rubbing their hands with Glee) demand collapsed and the price fell to $35 a barrel.

It actually struck me quite clearly when a worker said if his gas tank fill grew another $20 a go he would quit his job because he couldnt afford to drive to work. So this is quite interesting on several levels, a) the claims that ppl can adapt, clearly the adaption here is stop the activity not do it a different way something that seems to be under-estimated. The time to adapt has to be enough to time to adapt.

And although individuals may, repeat may, still be managing exorbitant mortgages can the wider community do so. Too much money going to mortgages is not going to more important things for our overall economy. Indeed out of the country.

Indeed, so we have ppl in here like libertarians in here whining about excessive Govn taxation but not too many words on in effect private taxation which for those with a big mortgage or huge rent is significant loss of income.

It seems its OK to line some ppls pockets, but not others, time to get real.

As expected, more fraud coming to light. This is just the tip of the liar loans in court- more to come.

Be patient. Every spectacular story plot always have a dramatic ending. Don't buy anything now.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1188...

That link was from July 2017

Here is today's update - January 2018
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1197...

Thanks for the correct link. It's hard working on the phone.