China is about to test us

We look at what we have at risk in trade and economic exposure to China as they ramp up economic and political pressure on us to join its world view on trade and 'friendly relations'

15th Feb 19, 12:44pm by David Chaston

Suddenly there is a flurry of news items that China is showing its displeasure with New Zealand through surreptitious pullbacks in relations.

New Zealand was a pioneer in engaging with China on trade, being one of the first Western nations to sign a free trade agreement. A number of other 'firsts' have followed.

But the China under authoritarian Xi is a different country to when those pioneering agreements were made. And we also have a new democratic administration assessing policy decisions.

Clearly, Wellington doesn't want to take sides between superpowers. It just wants to trade.

But both the US and China will only grant trade access to their economies with political strings attached. We won't like that, but it is the world be now must navigate.

Hard, choices are being thrust on us.

We are economically small - a rounding error for trade considerations in Beijing and Washington - but we have pushed our chest out in the world political arena. And we have a UN vote, something that does motivate the superpowers.

Trade is our Achilles heel in all of this.

Here is what we have 'at risk'.

New Zealand	2017	2018	growth
	$ bln	$ bln	%
Goods export trade to China	NZ$12.1	NZ$13.9	+14.9
- share of all NZ goods exports	22.6%	24.2%

Services export trade to China	NZ$3.0	NZ$3.4	+12.0
- share of all NZ services exports	13.0%	13.6%

Australia
Goods export trade to China	AU$99.6	AU$117.5	+18.0
- share of all AU goods exports	33.0%	34.0%

Services export trade to China	AU$12.0	AU$13.1	+9.3
- share of all AU services exports	14.0%	14.0%

New Zealand and Australia are part of a growing group of Western countries that have become sceptical of China's ambitions and the authoritarian nature of how it seeks to control both its diaspora and the way others think about it. Part of that scepticism is reflected in the reach and risks of technology giant Huawei. But this is just the tip of an iceberg of concerns. How Beijing deals with us could provide clues for how it may push back elsewhere. We may be being seen as an easy test case, one where China risks little from aggressive trial actions. Market research testing if you like, for a more broader strategy to how to push their agenda forward in the West.

And the hard truth is that no other country stands ready to buy what we have to sell China if we decide we don't want to buy what China thinks is good for us (Huawei's 5G, for example). The new US Administration has suddenly shown a willingness to throw its friends under a bus, any bus. So they are not a viable option.

Buckle in for a rocky ride. We will need broad bipartisan support to stand up for our beliefs.

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151 Comments

by Andrewj | 15th Feb 19, 12:55pm 1550188532

it's harder when you are a farmer and most of your product goes to China. 'skin in the game', your beliefs or our business?

by nymad | 15th Feb 19, 1:21pm 1550190065

I agree. New Zealand needs to make a stand on this, though. And own what route they go with.
This, like the calling in of debt in Africa and the Pacific is definitely a test case for the Chinese and their grand colonisation scheme.

It is also a test case for New Zealand as to whether we will stand by our morals and and reaffirm our sovereignty or capitulate on economic grounds.

I would like to think that we wouldn't go down the Rainbow Warrior track again, but I have extreme doubts. At the end of the day, I'm convinced we won't bite the hand that feeds us and willfully ignore the really crap things that the Chinese ruling party actively enforce.

by Fritz | 15th Feb 19, 1:24pm 1550190271

Well put

by powerdownkiwi | 15th Feb 19, 2:39pm 1550194762

Nymad and PDK agree in this instance - Lange dropped the moral ball and if we don't have morals, I'm not sure what have left.

There are lots of hungry people in the world and lots of potential tourists (although carbon-free ones are few and far-between.

But we have been an overpopulated planet since well before Will Catton wrote 'Overshoot' (which I advise everyone to download and read - it's sobering considering it was written 40 years ago). This is probably the posturing before the inevitable fight over what's left. Count ourselves lucky to have lived through the high-point of human ease - it is quite possible that no future generation will attain these heights.

by iconoclast | 15th Feb 19, 3:01pm 1550196074

There are lot of newcomers in NZ who are reading this would not know who Lange was and what the Marfart and Prieur capitulation was or for that matter the Rainbow Warrior effect

by Andrewj | 15th Feb 19, 1:35pm 1550190924

Politics and trade are seperate in China. We change governments all the time and with that policy. John Key was about the money, what ever it takes to get the deal done. This government not so much on the money money side, more ban foreign buyers etc.

by NZChinese | 15th Feb 19, 8:13pm 1550214793

Not exactly. China has weapanised trades as the tool to threat others.

by blue meanie | 16th Feb 19, 10:17am 1550265466

A very insightful comment NZChinese. Right on the money.

by Andrewj | 16th Feb 19, 10:22am 1550265733

I missed the not there, should be Trade and politics are 'not' seperate.

by NorthernLights | 19th Feb 19, 6:22am 1550510577

Talking of commando tactics
https://youtu.be/Yo5eL0_FAyg

China hires through intermediaries of course old kiwi cop & an old Aussie commando to exert “friendly pressure” There’s no legal validation provided to the claims which just proves if there’s a $ in it you can buy anyone to be a bounty hunter

by Lapun | 15th Feb 19, 1:43pm 1550191381

If you are selling commodities such as meat or milk power then if China changes supplier you have no problem because an equivalent hole will appear in the international market. If China stops all your commodity imports from every country then you have a problem. As you would if you are processing your goods and have packaging in Manadarin. Or you reply on Chinese tourists renting your accommodation.
If govt takes a stand and the Chinese take umbrage and choses to turn your plane / ship of exports round then the govt ought to compensate you for their unreasonable non-tariff barrier.

by Andrewj | 15th Feb 19, 1:48pm 1550191689

China moved Soy imports from the USA to Brazil, the USA has massive stockpiles of unsold Soy, so hows the market work again?

by nymad | 15th Feb 19, 1:53pm 1550192007

Yea. A simplistic view is that commodities are perfectly homogenous doesn't really fit when you have one buyer who buys a metric shit tonne of the good and scaleable transaction costs.

by Lapun | 15th Feb 19, 3:58pm 1550199529

'commodities are perfectly homogenous' does work for one buyer who dominates the market so long as they keep buying. The problem with soy is USA is a dominat supplier. Note milk exports from the Netherlands and Denmark so we do not dominate any of our markets as a suppplier.
The issue with soy and the USA will be resolved by one years planting; admittedly the life of a cow is longer than a year.

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 5:13pm 1550204012

Lapun, you speak like a pure theoretician who has read several books but never actually done any international trade. If China stops buying our exports or sending tourists to NZ, we cannot "just replace them with another country to export our products or attract tourists". It takes a huge amount of time to build relations in the real world, there are many laws from both countries that need amending, MAF in NZ is a great example of how difficult they can make things for NZ exporters, tax implications, terms of payment to be agreed upon etc...

by NZChinese | 17th Feb 19, 2:10pm 1550365847

MAF... Yeah, I still remember China once stopped NZ meat at the border because the export certificate was issued by MPI, not MAF. Typical Chinese obstacle.

by Lapun | 15th Feb 19, 11:02pm 1550224944

Tourism we agree. They can stop it and we lose out. What I don't understand is why milk powder is sold without there being an international market with futures etc. They have them for Pork and Gold and all manner of products that never reach Europe but are traded in London. Give it a brand name and you have a point - Anchor butter used to sell in England whereas a product called 'NZ butter' would have had to build a customer base.
If we exported iron ore and coal like Australia I would agree with you but we don't.
In my experience if you have a customer who is capricious and difficult then you tend to look for other customers or increase your prices to cover possible disruptions.

by Uninterested | 15th Feb 19, 1:04pm 1550189071

These "surreptitious pullbacks in relations" are all so incredibly minor. So minor in fact that I am wondering whether its a figment of the medias' imagination. If China really didn't like its Huawai spyware being banned from NZ or our displeasure at their land grab in the South China Sea etc, it would do something like halve the quota of milk powder. Things of that magnitude.

by Fritz | 15th Feb 19, 1:25pm 1550190331

That's not how China works. They work on subtle, cunning measures.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 19, 1:35pm 1550190945

You mean like Salmon imports going rotten on the dock while paperwork gets misplaced?

by SB KIWI | 15th Feb 19, 1:05pm 1550189115

National - We have Yang Jian

by David Chaston | 15th Feb 19, 2:04pm 1550192669

Labour has Raymond Huo. And the party president, Nigel Haworth. Both have form promoting China's world view to Kiwis. Just like Yang Jian.

Here is the CPC report on Haworth's support at a Beijing political conference:

Professor Nigel Haworth, President of the New Zealand Labour Party said: "Xi is taking a very brave step, trying to lead the world and to think about the global challenges in a cooperative manner, historically we have wars and we have crisis, but he is posing a possibility of a different way based on collaboration and cooperation, making cooperation work is difficult, but he think that's a better way for mankind."

by powerdownkiwi | 15th Feb 19, 2:44pm 1550195043

It's a worthy goal, David, and plausible when you discard the Standard 'anti-communist' rhetoric.

But there are too many of us for it to be achieved - there isn't enough planet to go around. Unless he is advocating much less consumption per head... Which kind of makes trade worries irrelevant.

by SB KIWI | 15th Feb 19, 2:48pm 1550195290

Yang Jian - a source link to higher level for both parties because his relationship or background in the past
Raymond Huo - no one care, not even a list MP

by bw | 15th Feb 19, 1:06pm 1550189195

New Zealand could be to China what Greece was to the EU.
A small country that can be taught a lesson so that everyone else sees.

Whats' that old Chinese proverb? "Kill the chicken when the monkey is watching"

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 4:30pm 1550201444

This kind of ignorant post irks me, there's no commonality between New Zealand and Greece

by bw | 15th Feb 19, 5:33pm 1550205183

Use two eyes, and you might see there is more in common between us than is apparent!

by fat pat | 15th Feb 19, 7:27pm 1550212066

That's what I said, we're China's 5 eyes whipping boy.

by MortgageBelt | 15th Feb 19, 1:07pm 1550189246

There are tens of thousands of Huawei Internet routers already in NZ homes via Spark, & others.
Are these at risk from any backdoor data flow to the CCP?

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 19, 1:34pm 1550190885

yes there are security holes in most home type products but spark and others limit port usage etc on there networks to try and minimise hacking

by MissyChung | 15th Feb 19, 1:23pm 1550190238

China is showing it true (and normal) colours..bullying, blackmail, arm twisting etc, etc. and yet it tells the world it want to be a "good corporate citizen". It cries foul to what USA is doing re: trade, yet it tries to do worse to NZ...for no good reason. In the USA case at least the USA has probable cause i.e. China steals patents, copywrite, IT propriety software, steal Spratley Island and more.

This is typical China/PLA tactic.

by Chairman Moa | 15th Feb 19, 2:20pm 1550193634

You have lost 1325 social credit points.

PS. Please come to the Embassy at Glemore Street, Wellington to pick up your Visa.

by saving4AUhouse | 15th Feb 19, 4:56pm 1550202991

Given the spelling of her last name, I would guess she is of Taiwanese origin. That embassy is probably not particular relevant.

by RickStrauss | 16th Feb 19, 3:31pm 1550284304

China thinks it owns Taiwan too, so it's still relevant.

by Davo36 | 15th Feb 19, 5:02pm 1550203331

I don't think the US is much better to be honest. You don't think they threaten us? Remember ANZUS?

by taimaiakka0 | 16th Feb 19, 11:22am 1550269379

Are you Surprised ?

by Chairman Moa | 15th Feb 19, 1:25pm 1550190359

Majority of components inside Apple and Samsung phones are made in..??? Yup, you guessed it.

NZDF is using a version of DJi drone - DJi is made in..? Yep you're right again!

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 4:32pm 1550201554

South Korea

by Chairman Moa | 15th Feb 19, 4:38pm 1550201885

DJI is a Chinese company and you have lost 200 social credit point

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12005158

by blue meanie | 16th Feb 19, 10:21am 1550265704

Might want to check your 'facts' about who uses DJI Chairperson Moa...

by finity53 | 17th Feb 19, 3:53pm 1550372035

In the technology business, it is irrelevant where the components are manufactured and in most cases irrelevant where it is assembled as well.

What matters is who owns the intellectual property, People trust Apple as company that shares western values around privacy, and numerous other things as well. So it doesn't matter to most people that they contract the manufacturing of their product to Foxconn.

by Pragmatist | 17th Feb 19, 4:01pm 1550372491

Not when its processors/complex ICs.. who knows what is really inside if its made out of sight and with no real oversight.

Most other components sure, the worst you have to worry about is quality issues.

by Cowpat | 15th Feb 19, 1:27pm 1550190444

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/382560/sanford-shipments-delaye…

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 19, 1:32pm 1550190769

This ANZAC day goto dawn parade and then your local RSA. Have a beer, ask why and what people died fighting for, I believe it was a free world, not the communist surveillance sate we now know as Chine.

We must never let such a state supply critical infrastructure such as our core backbone internet technology... the Chinese didn't by Cisco for this very reason.

Least we forget.

by saving4AUhouse | 15th Feb 19, 2:17pm 1550193421

One of our largest allies in WWII was the Republic of China, aka Nationalist China. The current communist government of that controls China is still seeking to destroy the remnant left of it in Taiwan.

by Andrewj | 15th Feb 19, 2:27pm 1550194061

WW1 too
http://multimedia.scmp.com/ww1-china/

by bilbo | 15th Feb 19, 2:06pm 1550192795

The trade never comes without strings attached. We're talking about a country that forces airlines to remove the word 'Taiwan' from their websites if they want to keep doing business there. We're never going to get a fair deal in the long run. China uses our 3-year democracy system against us. They lay the trap 10-20 years ahead of us because we're too myopic to see past the next election.

The only thing NZ and China have in common is we both have a Winnie the Pooh in charge.

by PocketAces | 15th Feb 19, 3:12pm 1550196734

The fact that China can manipulate other countries over Taiwan and the Dalai Lama are enough of a red flag for me

by Davo36 | 15th Feb 19, 5:04pm 1550203464

Yeah but gotta remember the US do these things too.

Even Aussie cajole us into spending more on defence.

by waymad | 15th Feb 19, 2:05pm 1550192739

It also does not help that our current Gubmint crew (with the notable exception of Winston, who is a loose cannon careening around the decks), is full of Good Intentions but woefully short on international Realpolitik outside the student unions of their youth.

Not a winning combination when it's up against a rising superpower well versed at keeping north of a billion souls fed, housed and relatively contented. And when every Gubmint utterance, in the eyes of said superpower, is scrutinised, weighed in the balance, and judged. Consequences then follow for the Good Intentions Paving Co (2017) Ltd...

by PocketAces | 15th Feb 19, 3:13pm 1550196807

Of course Simon Bridges is not sh*t stirring as if his life depends on it.

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 4:38pm 1550201935

Bring back John Key

by Chairman Moa | 15th Feb 19, 5:01pm 1550203305

yeah, the Nat with JK was a good gruberrment

by NoFax | 15th Feb 19, 2:23pm 1550193814

Why are we surprised that the CCP acts like a lawless authoritarian regime? The world order is in a state of flux in the Indo-Pacific region and we have to decide if we stand true to our principles of a free society or bowed down to the CCP. Yes, there will be short term loses as the "useful idiots" will point out ad nauseum. However with the CCP in charge, "if you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever".

by Wrong John | 15th Feb 19, 2:56pm 1550195796

Do the Billy Connolly diplomatic dance.... ''Ïf they don't like it, then tell them to f.... ..f!"
Sure, we won't get rich doing it this way, but at least we'll be able to sleep at night.
In our tents.

by Boatman | 15th Feb 19, 2:58pm 1550195899

Re China :- Like Donald Trump's administration , the only thing this hapless Government has done successfully is to annoy just about everyone , friends , neighbours , farmers , the business community, coalition partners, trading partners , supporters, employees, service providers and suppliers

by blue meanie | 16th Feb 19, 2:54pm 1550282075

Mostly wrong.... I think they just annoy you and your view of self as such, you feel the world must feel the same as you... says more about you...

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 19, 2:58pm 1550195925

Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary (financial) safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)

by PocketAces | 15th Feb 19, 6:13pm 1550207623

Timely reminder

by sharetrader | 15th Feb 19, 3:00pm 1550196058

and we have national ramping this up.
if they were not funded by and have an CCP member in their mist you would say good
But when you see a lot of the smelly deals they did when in power and the cash they got which was split to hide it you do wonder

by Brutus Iscariot | 15th Feb 19, 3:29pm 1550197781

Bring it on. We stood up to the US in the 1980s, we can stand up to China now.

by The_4th_estate | 17th Feb 19, 3:24pm 1550370287

Did we? I seem to recall being conquered by the IMF and the World Bank during the 80s...thats about as weaponised American political and economic dogma as you can get, short of being invaded by the US military its the next worse thing. Look who stole all our public assets....told us to liberalise our economy....made our exchange rate a plaything for American merchant bankers....made our government enact grossly onesided social policy that we are now reaping a whirlwind of hurt from. Oh yeah we really stood up...not...we were subdjugated and exploited by a greedy vexacious imperial force.

by andyb | 15th Feb 19, 3:32pm 1550197958

This is hardly surprising... and you could see it coming as far back as Twyford's racist approach to Auckland home buyers.

The only question is what does Smiley McSmiley face do..... thus far she has planted her head in the sand. She told us she was qualified for the job cos she had chaired a UN Youth meeting.... so lets see those diplomatic skills at play now that NZ exporters livelihood's are on the line.

If she continues to let the NZ-China relationship fester then she will be on the dole queue post the 2020 election.

by ilikewalnuts | 15th Feb 19, 3:48pm 1550198909

Someone in this country finally has the backbone to stand up to this awful human rights abusing regime and you are unhappy? Godbless not eveyone in NZ is willing to sell out our country and democracy for short-term financial gain.

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 4:42pm 1550202174

Mrs Ardern is not "awful human rights abusing" she's caring and full of good intentions

by Davo36 | 15th Feb 19, 5:07pm 1550203639

Twyford's racist approach to Auckland home buyers.

Mate, he's been shown to be correct. More than 20% of sales to foreigners in some suburbs.

Everyone agrees on this now...

The 3% was a lie...

by andyb | 15th Feb 19, 8:45pm 1550216736

Right or wrong.. the point I am making is that singling out chinese as the cause of our problems .. which has been further exacerbated by Jacinda's wilful disregard of maintaining the Chinese relationships.. will ultimately be borne by our exporters.

I am not making a comment on Chinese attitudes to trading or condoning them... I am merely asking what is McSmiley Face doing to manage Chinese decisions with a view to protecting our exporters from the fall out.

by blue meanie | 16th Feb 19, 10:29am 1550266172

So trade at any cost? Even from a country no longer part of the rules based order. We may as well ramp up trade with Iran and North Korea... Greed is a very worrying human condition.

by taimaiakka0 | 15th Feb 19, 3:40pm 1550198422

We look at what we have at risk in trade and economic exposure to China as they ramp up economic and political pressure on us to join its world view on trade and 'friendly relations'

This is called bullying.

More you bend more will be requested till you break.......

May be time to be diplomatic and firm (Winston Peter are you listining) and att he same time look for other friendly countries with democratic values.

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 4:44pm 1550202295

I hear Vanuatu and Raratonga are quite "friendly", let's trade with them instead

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 19, 4:04pm 1550199875

I have a sneaking feeling that this downturn in our relationship - its not you its me - is more about the recent bill that stops china buying dairy farms etc etc.

by xingmowang | 15th Feb 19, 4:13pm 1550200430

Most ppl commenting this section chanting NZ should be aginst evil China and evil communist party are very likely to the ones in their 60s or 70s, who spent most of their childhood and even teenager time during the cold war.

What can I say? These ppl's mind is framed and the way of their thinking is only about zero sum games.

Oh, Come on and give me a break.

We are living in the 21st century full of opportunities and possibilities.

Who would think that Jim Rogers daugthers would be invited by the Central CHina TV to sing in Chinese. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkjVEwzmJnQ).

All I can say is that open up you eyes and mind.

I can assure you that China-NZ's economic tie will be getting even stronger not weaker.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 19, 4:26pm 1550201169

I don't like there human rights record, didn't like the Tiananmen Square massecure either

try googling this in china

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests

I don't trust them to serve us our google results via there 5G infrastructure.......

by xingmowang | 15th Feb 19, 4:29pm 1550201359

China was super lucky to have Deng Xiao Ping in1989 and had the courage to stump down the students movements.

I cannot imagine what China would become if those students were let to be.

Massacre??

You probably watched too much BBC sxxx. The number of death and injury at that night was probably even lower than the number of homicide in Chicago, USA during its most 'peaceful' period..

by Mrs The Point | 15th Feb 19, 5:05pm 1550203530

Yes China could have ended up FREE, like the lucky ones that escaped to the Republic of China.
Obviously it wasn't your relatives who were slaughtered like cattle by the Wu Jing in Tianamen.
A shameful act that Deng Xiao Peng will always be remembered for, ranking him right up there with Hitler.

by Zachary Smith | 17th Feb 19, 11:44am 1550357079

Those "lucky ones that escaped to the Republic of China" had an interesting concept of freedom:

Martial law, declared on Taiwan in May 1949, continued to be in effect after the central government relocated to Taiwan. It was not repealed until 1987, and was used as a way to suppress the political opposition in the intervening years. During the White Terror, as the period is known, 140,000 people were imprisoned or executed for being perceived as anti-KMT or pro-Communist. Many citizens were arrested, tortured, imprisoned and executed for their real or perceived link to the Communists.

by Lapun | 17th Feb 19, 5:44pm 1550378655

Do all countries have a past they would prefer to forget? Is 140k divided by a population of 23m better or worse then 45m (Mao's greap leap forward) divided by 1,386m?

However today the average Han Chinese living in Taiwan has over double the GDP per capita of Han Chinese under communist rule. They also have a mechanism to change their rulers.

by Davo36 | 15th Feb 19, 5:09pm 1550203746

Communist Party stooge.

by saving4AUhouse | 15th Feb 19, 5:32pm 1550205137

To be fair it's entirely possible he's in a forced labour camp, and forced to write much of what we see here. Maybe we should pity him.

by linklater01 | 15th Feb 19, 7:50pm 1550213419

xingmowang,

So,these students threatened the entire nation did they? The threat was so great that unarmed young men and women had to be slaughtered,is that what you believe?
Why can’t you google Tianenman Square in China? If NZ is wise,we will make every effort to reduce our economic dependence on China,however painful that is in the short term.

by Foyle | 16th Feb 19, 12:04am 1550228652

No you foolish capitalist, was all a silly mistake. A tank driver in glorious PLA performed an mistaken left turn and accidentally ran over 1500 clumsy students. No massacre.

by RickStrauss | 16th Feb 19, 7:36pm 1550299017

Picture of Tianamen Square: https://i.redd.it/newflzdhh8211.jpg

Meanwhile, formerly top-secret cables from the British ambassador gave a whole lot more detail on how bad it was:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/tiananmen-square-massacre…

It also provides horrific detail of the massacre, alleging that wounded female students were bayoneted as they begged for their lives, human remains were “hosed down the drains”, and a mother was shot as she tried to go to the aid of her injured three-year-old daughter.

Sir Alan added: “Students understood they were given one hour to leave square, but after five minutes APCs attacked.

“Students linked arms but were mown down. APCs then ran over the bodies time and time again to make, quote ‘pie’ unquote, and remains collected by bulldozer.

“Remains incinerated and then hosed down drains.”

...

“snipers shot many civilians on balconies, street sweepers etc for target practice”.

“27 Army ordered to spare no one,” he wrote. “Wounded girl students begged for their lives but were bayoneted.

“A three-year-old girl was injured, but her mother was shot as she went to her aid, as were six others.”

...

Sir Alan wrote: “1,000 survivors were told they could escape but were then mown down by specially prepared MG [machine gun] positions.

“Army ambulances who attempted to give aid were shot up, as was a Sino-Japanese hospital ambulance. With medical crew dead, wounded driver attempted to ram attackers but was blown to pieces by anti-tank weapon.”

In another incident, the cable said, the troops even shot one of their own officers.

Sir Alan wrote: “27 Army officer shot dead by own troops, apparently because he faltered. Troops explained they would be shot if they hadn’t shot the officer.”

The official CCP estimate that our stooge above must comply with is 200-300 dead.

by Zachary Smith | 16th Feb 19, 8:39pm 1550302741

xingmowang is right in this case. That's BS propaganda above. Look closely at the picture and you will see people are just keeping their heads down. No crushed bicycles, no obviously dead people, no blood. Compare with photos of the Bataclan massacre in Paris.

I have spoken with students that were actually there and none of them knew anyone who was killed.

The government gave the students several days of warning. On the final day Beijing had many burning vehicles filling the air with smoke. These fires were lit by students and workers that had joined them. The government couldn't afford it to go on any longer and had repeatedly asked the students to disperse.

I can assure you that no Western government would have tolerated it. Compare Waco.

by RickStrauss | 16th Feb 19, 8:58pm 1550303930

For goodness sake, Zachary. You should know better than that, just because one image shows people cowering.

I'm pretty surprised you're buying that. It is very easy to find far more graphic documentation of the Tianamen Square massacre. I can post more (and far more graphic) sources but I'm not sure if that's okay with Ed. (Alternatively, provide a burner or real email address and I'll email you from another burner email address.)

You should also check this out: https://vimeo.com/44078865

Waco? Waco is regarded as an abhorrent failure in the USA and in fact drove a whole new approach to negotiations in the FBI. You're comparing something regarded as a terrible and tragic failure in the USA, with something regarded as as successful result in China. That's ridiculous.

Note the US source corroborating the earlier confidential British cable:

In 2014, however, it was reported that a confidential US government file quoted a Chinese military source as saying the Communist regime’s own internal assessment believed 10,454 people had been killed – a figure that would fit Sir Alan’s initial estimate.

So we have multiple foreign sources and witnesses at the time, a good amount of documentary evidence, local accounts etc. - but instead take the word of a dictatorial government that can do no wrong?

by Zachary Smith | 16th Feb 19, 9:58pm 1550307512

You're pretty naive Rick. You probably still believe the Russians got Trump elected.

I have had discussions with people who were actually at Tiananmen as student protesters. There were casualties, on both sides, but nothing like what the Western propaganda apparatus claims,

by RickStrauss | 16th Feb 19, 10:28pm 1550309328

Of course. Fake news, of course. All propaganda. Nothing to see here.

One of us may be naive, but I prefer to evaluate the multiplicity of sources and allow Ockham's Razor to do its job. Look at those people pretending to be hurt. Bloomin' fakers, the lot of them.

There are more pictures available.

I would suggest taking the time to do some research rather than just having had a chat to a few people who agree there's nothing to see here.

by Zachary Smith | 17th Feb 19, 1:54am 1550321646

I said there were casualties on both sides Rick. In one picture you see a burnt out APC. A bit of a battle occurred with hard core members of the student movement and workers. People encouraged by the US. What I am disputing is the "thousands" wantonly killed rumour.

I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve really. We know the US tried to cause a counter revolution in China. It failed and almost no one in China currently would appreciate you coming to the defence of the students now. 99% of Chinese at home and abroad have the same opinion as xingmowang.

China has a long history of troublesome youth movements like the Red Guards and the Boxers.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 19, 7:44am 1550342696

There's so much info and so many pictures, it makes it a little unrealistic to latch so strongly to one or two to discount the wider brutality to suit.

by linklater01 | 18th Feb 19, 8:33am 1550432006

ZS,

And just how did you find these students? And how good is your grasp of Mandarin? You are in effect saying that no massacre took place,but if one did,any Western government would have done it and Waco proves it.

I think you live in some fantasy land.

by Zachary Smith | 18th Feb 19, 9:50am 1550436602

Many Chinese people speak English. Western governments would suppress an insurrection with force if military units sent in to disperse protesters after several days warning were met with violent resistance. Especially if military equipment was destroyed, personnel killed or injured. It is you living in a fantasy land if you don't believe that.

by Foyle | 16th Feb 19, 12:01am 1550228473

no google in China. Great firewall to keep anarchic Google out and Baidu results compliant with governments public relations requirements.

by Ezy | 15th Feb 19, 4:39pm 1550201991

China's record on human rights is atrocious. Their abuses are many including organ harvesting political dissidents, woman's rights, and freedom of religion. See the world report for a flavour of how awful the regime is there https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/china-and-tibet.

Not to mention their belt and road project designed to invade the Pacific as a stage for a future war.

China can keep it's trade, it's facial recognition and social credit system of oppressive government. I'd be happy to take a downturn on imports, and look for other creative ways of exporting our commodities in the long term if it means we avoid turning NZ into a surveillance state run banana republic. A place where comments like this would earn me and my family a trip to the liquidation factory.

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 4:49pm 1550202577

What about the US, they have massive war ships in the South China sea, what the hell are they doing there? Would the US be happy with Chinese war ships in the Gulf of Mexico? I think not.

by saving4AUhouse | 15th Feb 19, 4:53pm 1550202825

What about the US, they have massive war ships in the South China sea, what the hell are they doing there?

They're international waters, and it's a vital shipping lane. The Australian, French, British, Japanese and Indian navies are also there.

by sharetrader | 15th Feb 19, 7:08pm 1550210921

the british are joining them soon so where will NZ stand?
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/02/12/1893101/uk-deploy-flagshi…

by blue meanie | 16th Feb 19, 10:34am 1550266456

New Zealand already has... Google - United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. China is threatening control of one of the busiest shipping lanes on the planet...

by Pragmatist | 15th Feb 19, 5:23pm 1550204631

Wrong, GenX here. Shitty governments that have no respect for human rights suck and need to be called out at every opportunity.

by Fritz | 15th Feb 19, 9:04pm 1550217856

If your homeland is so great and mighty, why don’t you return?

by delboy | 15th Feb 19, 4:15pm 1550200555

If China imposed sanctions on dairy and seafood imports from NZ those industries would become smaller and that’s got to be good for the environment.

Dirty dairy is killing our water ways and big fishing companies are cleaning out our oceans.

by Averageman | 15th Feb 19, 4:44pm 1550202252

Sweet. Look forward to these food items become cheaper on the shelves in NZ.

by Lapun | 15th Feb 19, 6:24pm 1550208249

Simply not true. Other countries do produce dairy goods and seafood. In fact massively more than NZ. So China could ban all NZ dairy and seafood and we would have to sell our product to others maybe farther away or smaller profits but they would sell.

by taimaiakka0 | 16th Feb 19, 11:25am 1550269531

Not to forget taking water from NZ for free

by saving4AUhouse | 15th Feb 19, 4:16pm 1550200593

Most ppl commenting this section chanting NZ should be aginst evil China and evil communist party are very likely to the ones in their 60s or 70s, who spent most of their childhood and even teenager time during the cold war.

Wrong. I'm a millennial. Chinas economic cooperation comes with strings attached - it was the naive baby boomers who thought a communist dictatorship could really change its stripes.

by Lapun | 15th Feb 19, 6:32pm 1550208752

It was looking better for a while a few years ago. Now they have a president for life; a dubious social credit system, a million Muslims in concentration camps receiving re-education; repression of Tibetans, Falun Gong and Christians, the head of Interpol has disappearred, organ harvesting has been proved, etc.
China has changed and our govt needs to think carefully how we should respond.

by sharetrader | 15th Feb 19, 7:14pm 1550211280

and lets not forget about the occupation of Tibet
https://www.freetibet.org/about
China invaded Tibet in 1950. Inside its borders and across the world, Tibetans have never stopped believing Tibet is a nation.
After more than 60 years of occupation, Tibetans still resist China's rule and defy its oppression.
and lets not forget when they tried to stop our MP's protesting in NZ
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=3530487

by andyb | 15th Feb 19, 8:50pm 1550217037

very easy to take a principled stance when its not your livelihood at stake. Would you have the same attitude if you were an exporter?

by Fritz | 15th Feb 19, 8:59pm 1550217598

That’s cheap.

by Smalltown | 16th Feb 19, 8:30am 1550259055

Andy - it wasn't us who forced farmers to mortgage to the hilt purchasing land left right and centre. These clever boys and girls made that decision themselves, albeit conned by the National Parties incredibly misguided plan to double primary exports by 2025 with the associated nudge nudge, wink wink promise to assist with taxpayers money for irrigation schemes and to ignore what was happening to the environment.

When the Federated Farmers president Conor English said that we were wasting water by letting any flow out to the sea I knew that the cockies had some how avoided the darwinian process going on elsewhere.

by iconoclast | 16th Feb 19, 9:14am 1550261649

Needed to be said

by speckles | 16th Feb 19, 8:39am 1550259587

Well I'm an exporter that has worked to diversify from one market concentration for the very reason of risk mitigation. Its hard work, don't have my sympathy for those that simple have not bothered. Its business 101.

by JB | 15th Feb 19, 4:31pm 1550201461

We should be only too happy to allow Huawei to build Sparks new 5G network. If we don't we will pay the considerable costs associated.

China has been moving up the value chain - and now they are the equal of the best in some areas.

Spark are quite capable of making that decision if that's best for them and their customers.

Five Eyes are pissed for the simple reason that it is my guess they already have trapdoors in all existing US manufactured processors - of which there are very few.

Concerned they will lose that capability.

by Carlos67 | 16th Feb 19, 5:27pm 1550291241

You should do some research on 5G, its a dog and will never fly in places other than very high density cities. Its never going to be rolled out nationwide.It is very short range and line of sight. I really wouldn't be getting to excited about it personally and 4G is fast enough if they built a decent network.

by The_4th_estate | 15th Feb 19, 4:48pm 1550202484

Chinese tanks in Aotea Square perhaps? The Japanese, French and Americans all used to play games like this in the 80s and 90s when we were desperately scratching around for anyone to trade with after Britain kicked us out of the house when it joined the EEC. The Russians took all our butter and cheese and never paid us...we took Ladas in payment like some banana republic. 40 years of economic reform...you what? We haven't learned a thing, still low value commodity producer focussed on one market for the bulk of our trade.

by Yvil | 15th Feb 19, 5:19pm 1550204377

Imagine if the problem with the iPhone that is transmitting images on FaceTime even when the call is not answered happened on a Huawei...

by Nzdan | 15th Feb 19, 5:47pm 1550206071

I’m scared.

by JP | 15th Feb 19, 5:57pm 1550206653

NZ has been put in a hard place by the US and fellow Five Eyes. Basically we have to decide between economically strong relationship with China or strong defence ties with our western allies.

by Lapun | 15th Feb 19, 6:34pm 1550208897

Traditionally the Chinese will respect anyone who is loyal to past allies.

by Chris-M | 15th Feb 19, 6:02pm 1550206968

We must stand firm on our principles. And this behavior by China has made it a matter of principle, so it is even more important. Fail at this point and we might as well get rid of our government and accept a Chinese appointed administrator. I think that I would be looking for a different country to live in.
As I have being say for years and long before this blew up; we were crazy to expect anything other than this sort of behavior from China at some point. They are after all a totalitarian state with a shocking record of how they treat their own citizens. So what can we expect from them.
We were crazy to ever let ourselves to become so dependent on any one customer, especially one with such a shocking track record as China. I think that we need to be very careful with the USA also.
If I were an exporter I would be desperately looking for other destinations for my product and diverting as much as I can away from China; even if the prices were slightly lower. Who wants their products ruined by being held up in some sort of trade dispute.
May be the rest of the world needs to have a meeting to quickly set up trade arrangements that minimize exports to and imports from China. That way we will have some sort of defense against being individually picked off by this bully. We should hold the USA at arms length in any such arrangement as they are not much better.
Love many, trust few, and always paddle your own canoe.

by denpal | 15th Feb 19, 11:16pm 1550225794

I agree the way China treats its citizens is unacceptable. We need to diversify our trade as they won't change their attitude and behaviour anytime soon. Even though the US is a rogue state we are well advised to stay under its protection to keep predators away. We don't want to be re-colonized by anybody.

by PocketAces | 15th Feb 19, 6:24pm 1550208259

This is the sort of thing that leaves people suspicious of Chinese businesses, no doubt this one, like most has govt involvement https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2019/02/06/429704/massive-resort-desecrates-…

by Fritz | 15th Feb 19, 6:27pm 1550208474

Yes. Anyone who has bought into China as the 'benign empire benefitting mankind' is either dumb or has vested interest.
It's a horrid regieme that's starting to really show it's true colours. Yes we benefit from them but also them from us. There needs to be middle ground. They've pushed things too far their way.

by Pragmatist | 15th Feb 19, 6:46pm 1550209610

Has their ever been a regime of any decent size that has been a " benign empire benefiting mankind?" They always seem to benefit their slice of humanity and run roughshod over the other tribes/races until they become too big and collapse/retreat or get beaten back.

by Fritz | 15th Feb 19, 7:13pm 1550211237

True, and the USA (for example) is FAR from saintly. Still, I know who I would rather side with....

by NZChinese | 15th Feb 19, 7:12pm 1550211125

Time to boycott Fisher&Paykel Appliances, I guess

by sharetrader | 15th Feb 19, 7:22pm 1550211756

depends on which appliance , they are made in china , Thailand, mexico and Italy
and they are only a company they dont much influence apart from political donations.
we have freedom here to choose if we want to buy from any company and our government does not direct us as to who we should support

by NZChinese | 15th Feb 19, 9:50pm 1550220635

Haier owns FPA, fully. Is there any true difference between Haier and Huawei? Haier has the party secretary too. Most of their senior leadership are party members too. As we are heading to the IoT era, smart appliances have the ability to capture not the data going through your wifi network but also listen to you conversations, just like smartphones. Why not treating FPA as a security threat too? LOL

by Mrs The Point | 15th Feb 19, 8:18pm 1550215092

You are more than likely right. The potential for spyware is enormous.
Not really keen to have Alexa listening to everything I say either.

by Pragmatist | 15th Feb 19, 10:06pm 1550221570

The potential for spyware isn't half as bad in a washing machine as in network infrastructure.

If the Chinese govt wants to know whether my washing gets done on Regular, or Eco cycle, lets them have at it. If i'm connecting from my work laptop to a customers production equipment thats a whole new level of risk.

by Carlos67 | 16th Feb 19, 5:30pm 1550291413

Stopped buying their stuff years ago when they moved their operation offshore. Alot of their stuff is now rubbish anyway, better products on the market now.

by Taxbreak | 15th Feb 19, 10:48pm 1550224104

So, does the Chinese government/CCP allow foreign (non-chinese owned) companies to tender for contracts to supply and install critical infrastructure in China?

by Foyle | 15th Feb 19, 11:29pm 1550226567

touche. China has a vast array of non-tarriff barriers and uneven application of law that covers just about everything under the sun. They only pretend to play by WTA rules and on a level playing field. EG entirety of China uses very expensive pirated engineering software, that if they paid for it like companies in the west have to would be costing them 100's of billions.

by scarfie | 15th Feb 19, 11:23pm 1550226184

If only we didn't bet the bank on Chinese money to prop up the Auckland housing market, who can we turn to next to keep the scheme going?

by Averageman | 16th Feb 19, 7:17am 1550254621

No one can pay at the levels they did. Lets face it they value 13 years free education and healthcare for their children, and free health care for their parents. One just hopes they didnt head back of shore to earn and pay tax overseas while we give that to them.

by scarfie | 16th Feb 19, 9:19am 1550261960

The pending war is already confirmed, read between the lines. This sort of posturing is just preparatory propaganda to mentally adapt the muppet population for the event. Better to tell China to go to hell now rather than later, then we can better prepare rather than live in denial. Not that I want the war, a scary thing when your family could become canon fodder.

by bw | 16th Feb 19, 8:26am 1550258807

" Last year was the first year that China had a current account deficit, i.e. more money going out of China than coming in… They are so desperately short dollars that they need Foreign Direct Investment, portfolio investment, to hold everything together… They’ve got current account deficit and they are running a massive fiscal deficit. So their consolidated fiscal deficit is a little bit north of 10% of GDP, including local government finance vehicles. Think about the US. We’re at a little over 4% of GDP and all the alarm bells are going off and China’s at 10% of GDP. China is starting to look like a traditional EM problem… (The) Chinese banking system is more levered than any banking system has ever been in the world… They’re a twin deficit country with reserves that are dwindling… If you look at how much RMB they’ve printed… since 2009. Realize, they have printed $30 trillion worth of RMB, if you look at Chinese money supply. They’ve printed like it’s a national past-time."
http://thesoundingline.com/kyle-bass-china-is-a-paper-tiger/

by powerdownkiwi | 16th Feb 19, 11:39am 1550270384

They also 'own' a large percentage of US 'debt'. Bootstrap territory.

But they probably have the ability to declare an instant debt-jubilee - although that would surely reduce faith in the system.

by Smalltown | 16th Feb 19, 12:45pm 1550274309

Here's the FT reporting on what the China Belting and Road initiative will give to some of the small nations it "helps"

https://www.ft.com/content/c8da1c8a-2a19-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8

If you can't open, it is a report made 5 days ago on the situation the Maldives finds itself in re loans arranged under the One Belting One Road scheme with demands to redraw rates and amounts owed.

Malaysia is also discussed with Mahathir stating that his country would be impoverished if it proceeded with a $20bn rail scheme arranged with kindly Chinese people by his predecessor. He talks of a new era of "colonialism."

by powerdownkiwi | 16th Feb 19, 5:28pm 1550291321

China just got that idea from the World Bank and the IMF. The West - through them - has been crippling the Third World then extracting their resources by way of foreclosure. Maybe they should have copyrighted the process......

by RickStrauss | 16th Feb 19, 6:52pm 1550296337

One Belt, One Straitjacket

by Fritz | 17th Feb 19, 6:47pm 1550382453

The Belting and Road initiative is such classic China. So obviously geo-political positioning, but poor countries are bribed.

by bw | 17th Feb 19, 8:49am 1550346566

China?! How about, Australia, testing us?

"The Australian government is attempting to deport another Indigenous man to New Zealand, despite him having no ties to the country where he was born while his parents were visiting the country more than 30 years ago. Tim Galvin’s mother and three brothers are Australian-born citizens, and his father is a UK-born citizen. His mother has signed a statutory declaration stating she is of Aboriginal descent. Galvin’s wife is a Noongar woman and they have four children together."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/17/government-attem…

by Lapun | 17th Feb 19, 5:47pm 1550378822

We know that if we never disagree with China then they will not test us. Do you suspect there is any action we could take to get Australia to implement its deportation laws with a touch of humanity?

by Jaf | 17th Feb 19, 9:18am 1550348314

The One Belt One Road (OBOR) is all about $$$ and self-serving interests.There is no charity in there. Comes loaded with onerous terms stacked one-sided.

3M's-Manpower, Machinery, Materials,- will come from one source country. Ask the countries that have fallen into the debt-trap by accepting the seemingly benevolent largesse.

A mailed fist in a velvet gloves.

by ngakonui gold | 17th Feb 19, 10:12am 1550351576

Li Rui a former confidant of Mao,turned party critic has died in Beijing at the age of 101.
He was imprisoned,exiled and nearly starved to death,wife left him taking 3 kids.
Eventually he was allowed to return to the party and tried to change the party from the inside.
A great obituary on the New York Times website.

by RDee | 17th Feb 19, 11:36am 1550356619

Work to our strengths - be a small and nibble economy, cut our cloth to suit. Find new markets and stick to our values. China will be sticking to theirs for sure.

by Fritz | 17th Feb 19, 6:48pm 1550382495

A nibble economy sums us up. Good at making nibbles

by PocketAces | 17th Feb 19, 7:52pm 1550386328

So long as they are not "chicken" nibbles

by Camel's back | 17th Feb 19, 1:00pm 1550361605

I think China has been "testing" us for a long time..

by NZChinese | 18th Feb 19, 1:00pm 1550448053

UK concludes it can mitigate risk from Huawei equipment use in 5G

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1Q60NR

by theglc | 20th Feb 19, 10:54am 1550613266

all risks can be mitigated, but at what cost, might be cheaper just to go with Nokia or Alcatel

by MissyChung | 18th Feb 19, 4:32pm 1550460754

Let's make a comparison: Apartheid Era South Africa and Current era China

Human Rights abuses Yes Yes
Capitalist country Yes No
Communist country No Yes
State-run media Partly Yes
Restricted freedom of speech Yes Yes
Restricted travel and living areas Yes Yes
Imprisonment of political figures Yes Yes
Operation of "hit squares" Yes Yes
Copyright and patents infringements No Yes
Theft of proprietary IT Software No Yes
Debt Trap diplomacy No Yes
Bully, blackmail, indoctrination and threats. Partly Yes: totally
Currency manipulation for exports Partly Yes: Totally

In the above comparison SA is better placed than China.
If Apartheid South Africa was black listed, why is NZ and any country even trading with China??

Bring back John Minto!!